The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.
I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.
silmaj@698
It must be the facts that have a Labor bias.
Must make you Libs weep a lot as you have to make up your own ‘facts’.
A suggestion for someone to follow this up, research this and put it out on twitter and send it to journalists.
One Lateline just now, Turnbull was being interviewed. At the end of the interview Turnbull got asked about his decision to not oppose the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. In defending that he repeated referred to the CEFC making a modest return. And how having a small return was good discipline, etc, etc. He repeatedly used modest.
Now, what’s interesting is that his own hand picked stooges doing the dodgy cost benefit analysis on the NBN concluded that fibre will make a modest return. So its ok for the CEFC, but not for the NBN.
Turnbull needs to be taken to task on this.
Oh the cracks in Turnbull really shone thru tonight.
He at least recognised knew the winning smile wasnt going to win it in this interview when matters of substance were discussed, but try as he might he couldn’t cut through.
Jones was was polite, persistent and diligent, certainly non-partisan.
Turnbull had every opportunity to shine but fizzled with every question.
Came across as a shallow, typical politician.
If this is day 3 of 100, and I were an LNP supporter, I would be very worried.
[Now that was a train wreck!]
Not quite to the standard of Abbott’s last interview with Leigh Sales. But he is accelerating towards that benchmark like a Ferrari with its brakes cut.
cud chewer@699
But, but… according to our resident ABC haters the ABC has conspired to cover up all those Lib stuff ups.
701
Labor and fact don’t coexist!
It’s all about getting rejected and finding a gravy train!
Rejected should be re elected although rejection will occur.
silmaj@706
You are nearly as funny as a Turnbull interview.
The only train tonight was Turnbull’s train wreck of an interview.
Well Turnbull looked very fake tanned, but he had to remind himself to be cheerful a few times. Mostly he looked pissed off.
IMO the worst was when he tried to lecture Tony on not concentrating on security, which was nicely sandwiched around him saying he wasn’t at all like Abbott.
Speaking of Abbott, I notice Turnbull seems to have a flag handy, even at his door stop statements. He must have some staffer lugging flags everywhere he goes.
silmaj, steely and bemused
I didn’t watch it. But I’m aware that the Belgian ambassador, who doesn’t have an interest in Australian politics as far as I know, was in the audience and he seemed to have heard – and responded to something very similar to what Bemused must have seen and heard.
I’ll take the Belgian ambassador’s comprehension over any of us, whatever our political persuasion.
bemused,
When the ABC head of current affairs apologises to Nick Ross and the ABC start having some informed commentary on the MTM train wreck, then I’ll believe it was all my imagination..
696
TPOF
I agree.
Leadership is always an important factor, but because Federal leaders have been changed and/or recycled so frequently the comparative standing of particular leaders is not so important as stability itself. Voters have learned not to place too much value on the leader-of-the-day. They are far more comfortable voting their values than their attachment to individuals. I think this extends to local candidates as well as to party leaders.
We can see this in WA, where Mark McGowan is very widely accepted as leader by voters of all stripes, an acceptance that is matched by a strong resistance to change. Were the Liberals to try to depose the unpopular Colin Barnett, their stocks would just completely collapse. Voters are well-over political games, including leadership games.
Labor have drawn attention again and again to their policies…to their values and their actions, rather than to the chimera of leadership. They will benefit from this.
victoria:
Thanks for that re Sinodinos. Yes he really does need to resign.
Goodnight all.
I can’t see where Turnbull implicates refugee influx in the terror attacks. I think it was a bit poor to kick Belgian preparedness when it was down though, even if he was trying to say how much safer Australia is.
Tony Jones was fair, balanced and persistent in his interview with Turnbull tonight.
Bur it did feel kinda weird, kinda like the ghost of Kerry O’Brien was hovering some where and feeding the lines to Jones.
I suppose there is some faint heartbeat of journalistic integrity left in the ABC, somewhere
Tom Hawkins
[Anyone who names them self after a dildo has got to have crap hearing ]
Having led a deprived childhood this is and was what a Steely Dan is :}
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgYuLsudaJQ
[Were the Liberals to try to depose the unpopular Colin Barnett, their stocks would just completely collapse. Voters are well-over political games, including leadership games.]
An interesting point. It has its resonance with the calls for Shorten to be replaced, which are now starting to fade quickly. Even if Shorten was only half as competent as he is, it would still have been catastrophic for Labor to replace him. The only time replacing a leader has been a really wise move politically was the KNIFING (stuff you Turnbull) of Abbott. And that was because Abbott was not just unpopular or disregarded, but downright dangerous and frightening.
I should add that when you see all the comments Turnbull made about how important multiculturalism is to reducing terrorism, it’s a bit churlish to get too worked up about a very oblique reference to refugees.
Dio,
Trying to make Australians feel safer??? Terrorism is all he want’s to talk about. Almost to the point of “death cult”.
[713
confessions
victoria:
Thanks for that re Sinodinos. Yes he really does need to resign.]
Were Sinodinos to be forced to resign, Turnbull would take a serious hit. That would be likely to further embolden Abbott, who will doubtless be comparing his own approach to terrorism with that of Turnbull. In this respect, Turnbull’s stupidities today should be seen for what they are – appeals made to his own Crazy Branch for some R-E-S-P-E-C-T.
Turnbull is looking very isolated in his own Party…just as unloved as he was in 2009.
Of all the greens cheersquad here, nicholas is the only one I find genuinely intolerable. I struggle to recall many times where he has offered any intelligent criticism of the Liberal party. Instead, he spends his whole time trying to attack Labor, therefore weakening the left and helping the Coalition. This is a time where self interest needs to be put aside for pragmatism (this also applies to some Labor supporters here as well. Unity is nessecary in order to defeat this incompetent and regressive government.
Dio “I can’t see where Turnbull implicates refugee influx in the terror attacks”
Then you are one fuckin naive dude.
Fess
Even Abbott wasnt stupid enough to have Sinodinos in cabinet. Just like with Brough, we knew Turnbull’s poor judgment was going to bite him in the arse re Sinodinos.
Dio,
The dog whistle is working perfectly. You didn’t want to hear it… and didn’t. SilMaj and Steely did want to hear it… and did.
715 and 719
With a million known extras how good can you be tracking and identifying?
Rossmore
I normally get told how cynical I am. 😀
briefly
[..the wages share of the economy has been fairly stable since Gough.]
ACTU. A Shrinking Slice of the Pie:
http://www.actu.org.au/media/297315/Shrinking%20Slice%20of%20the%20Pie%202013%20Final.pdf
[Warnings about a ‘wages breakout’ refer to a period in which real wages growth exceeds productivity growth, thus causing the labour income share to rise. This paper shows that Australia has experienced the opposite of a ‘wages breakout’ since 2000. Over this period Australian real wages have not kept pace with productivity growth. This means that labour’s share of total income has fallen and capital’s share has risen. We would now need a period in which real wages rose faster than productivity growth merely to restore the labour income share of the 1990s.]
Greg Jericho:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-29/jericho-unions-not-necessarily-the-hero-in-wages-war/6429738
[During the 1980s productivity grew but real labour income stagnated. From March 1983 to March 1990 labour productivity rose 7.1 per cent while the real compensation to employees on a per hours basis fell 2 per cent. During the 1990s both productivity and compensation to employees rose at the same rate, but since 2000 they have again split:
This slip has led to a dramatic fall in the share of national income going to labour. From 1986 to 2001 the percentage of total factor income going to employees through wages and other compensations remained relatively steady at about 55 per cent (with a few rises and falls along the way). But since 2001 it has fallen from 55.8 per cent to the current level of 53.4 per cent. During the GFC it reached 51.7 per cent – a level not seen since 1964]
725
Another crap lets get political over a fact.
Just wait till the election. The usual will happen.
Dio .. u are normally one of the more sane contributors, but defending Turnbull’s clusterfuck speech claiming weak borders was the cause of Brussels, was shall I say a bit thick. All the bombers were were born in Europe.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/24/australia-signs-landmark-regional-agreement-to-tackle-people-smuggling
[Australia has signed a landmark regional agreement to tackle people smuggling, which includes recommendations that countries consider alternatives to detaining vulnerable people.
The non-binding agreement, signed at a meeting co-chaired by Indonesia and Australia as part of the 45-nation Bali process in the Asia Pacific, also recommended member nations let people seeking asylum stay longer in transit countries.]
Don’t agree, watched Turnbull’s speech again the refugee terrorist link is not part of the Brussels “perfect storm” terrorism act. It is tacked on at the end of Europe and terrorism and it is definitely not how it has been portrayed in the media or some on this site. Nothing like an Abbott speech after such an act and nothing about his words on Moderate Islam and in particular Indonesia and president Widodo.
silmaj
My view is a purely statistical one. If you can more of any group in one place, you will have more extremists in that place and therefore be more likely for them to do something bad.
It’s a simple probability argument.
If you look at the number of terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists, it’s highly correlated with the total Muslim population in that city. So Paris and London do worst in the EU, although nothing like Pakistan, Iraq etc.
730
All the bombers all the operatives eh.
Better contact Europe you know more than them.
[ He stated that there was evidence that some Syrian radicals had entered Europe with refugees, he did not link this to Brussels, ]
I think our SteamSteely is suffering another pressure drop. 🙂
Steamy, given that he made that speech so close to the Brussels bombings and the topics covered it is simply not credible to assert that what he said isn’t “linked” to events in Brussles. sometimes Steamy, people like yourself an slimaj just have to accept that your bright shiny boy has completely fwarked it up.
Be interesting to see if your Mal shows any hint of a spine over dumping Sinodinos.
[Just wait till the election. The usual will happen.]
You bet. When faced with a political party that is more interested in squabbling with itself than running the country well and another that is united and appears focussed on running the country, the voters will go for the united one. Happens every time. And it will happen again this time.
Rossmore,
It seems he’s decided the charm of the new is wearing off, so he’s playing a few good old L-NP standards. Unions and Boats.
Just like Abbott.
So Sinodinus is using the Pell defense – was at all of the meetings, took the minutes and was in charge. But didn’t see or hear anything…
Tom.
I hasten to add that I don’t think that is a valid argument for cutting Muslim immigration.
733
So you can answer this simple question. Would it be easier to monitor problems in the population of a terrorist kind with
A One million extras
B the status quo
What “problems” “in recent times” would Turnbull be referring to here I wonder?
718
TPOF
Very few real live voters actually express dislike for Shorten. Some do. But their feelings are usually tokens for other beliefs. They are projections about beliefs of all kinds about Labor v. Liberal.
Voters disaffiliated in enormous numbers before the dumping of Abbott. Their re-attachment to the Liberals was striking but this has been dissipating since the turn of the year. Voters are now steadily disaffiliating from the Liberals. Some are now on the path to re-affiliating with Labor. They are drawn closer to Labor’s expressions, themed on education, health, jobs, tax, the environment. As this occurs, voters are discarding their projections about Shorten too.
Most of the talk about Shorten is really just a proxy for feelings about Labor more widely. As Labor’s index rises, Shorten-approval is also rising. By the time of the election, if Labor’s campaigning holds, and voters coalesce around support for Labor programs and values, support for Shorten will also solidify.
As this occurs, Labor will also get the credit for having maintained stability – a virtue in itself at the end of a prolonged period of recurring instability.
Shorten will turn into a significant vote winner for Labor by July.
So far as I know, could be wrong, but none of the Paris, Madrid, London or Brussells bombers were not born in Europe.
Blaming all this on imported terrorists from the Middle East just doesnt stack up. Turnbull implied it was and should be called out for such a dog whistling distortion.
Greens are “inner city tree hugging Liberals” according to one of their ex-voters
[ Now that was a train wreck!
Not quite to the standard of Abbott’s last interview with Leigh Sales. But he is accelerating towards that benchmark like a Ferrari with its brakes cut. ]
What i found curious was how Turnbull tries (and i have seen him do this before), to take the interviewer to task about what questions they are asking. That aspect was really on show tonight, and it came across like:
“How dare you try and keep me talking about things i dont want to talk about when I have made it OBVIOUS what i do want to talk about!! ”
“I will decide what interview questions if get and when i get them thank-you!! I know what people are really interested in NOT YOU!!”
Its starting to become a habit and it makes him look rattled and desperate to avoid hard questions.
Go Tony Jones!
At one point in that interview Turnbull who had been so frustrated about not being able to talk on Brussels for long enough got so flustered that he basically said that Labor and Liberal governments provide “continuity” on foreign policy. That’s not an argument against electing Labor!
742
While labor attacks the libs over historical donations and demand resignations, I’m sure Shorten will comfortably explain while his admitted donation that was originally called wages for a campaign staffer but yet had to be put on the public record just before the Turc hearing is all fine, makes him above his own judgements of others.
728
Pegasus
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
[Bob Brown
Yesterday at 8:06pm ·
Thanks to all the wonderful people who pledged to our crowdfunding campaign and helped us reach our target of $30,000.
Tarkine in Motion can begin. Let there be art!]
Bob Brown finding he can do more for the environment operating outside of parliament than he could as a sitting Greens MP.
Imacca … Turnbull exhibits the classic born to rule mentality.
That’s how he has achieved the lofty heights of a multi million dollar condominium in Sydney and a slush fund to match in the Caymans.
He thinks that entitles him to some slack not granted to the plebiscite.