This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.
Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.
Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.
Boerwar:
Where were you listening to that conversation with Tingle and Mega G pls?
[ these are supposedly signature election issues for Greens voters that Turnbull has failed so spectacularly on.]
If Green voters actually wanted something other than failure on signature issues for Green voters…
…well they wouldn’t vote for the Greens would they?
No wonder Turnbull looks good to them. No chance he’ll ever do more than make some hopeful noises. 😉
[19.Brussels! So many questions, how can they hate that much?]
If you can’t work that out you are are well behind my year 9 daughter. Just so you know.
TPOF@95
Wasn’t TBA the smart one? 😀
ratsak:
lol that’s a logical conclusion!
Boerwar
yes that seems to be the expectation. Turnbull will be announcing something along those lines. That is why Tingle has hinted in her articles that Turnbull will be doing great stuff but she could not say precisely what. The point is why is Turnbull not setting the groundwork for same?
poroti
Alan Jones has made it clear that he is no fan of Turnbull
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, March 22, 2016 at 8:30 pm | Permalink
Boerwar:
Where were you listening to that conversation with Tingle and Mega G pls?]
Manning Clark Building, Theatre 1, ANU.
Comforting – http://www.smh.com.au/environment/new-csiro-document-reveals-scale-of-planned-cuts-to-climate-programs-20160322-gnodtg.html
The elephant in the room is climate change. This time last year we were 4 weeks from the disaster in the Hunter. Plenty of time for a few more extreme weather events in the country before the election.
Can I ask,
Most of you realise Turnbull’s DD plan is Abbott’s DD plan?
The same plan they’ve had in place since announcing TURC?
Smear Labor, smear Shorten & Gillard, bring down allegedly damning findings, smear, smear then announce a surprise DD & hopefully catch Labor on the hop.
Turnbull the sucker is locked into their dud plan.
Keyman@109
Maybe one thought in Turnbull’s mind is to have a winter election to dodge extreme heat events and bushfires.
poroti
It’s getting serious. A meeting in the now name changed Cabinet Office Briefing Room ‘A’ is reported.
Be very afraid … the end is nigh.
Boerwar:
Oh 😆 I was expecting an online thing.
Sorry.
silentmajority:
Many of us here have been saying since the get-go that Turnbull is just the warm fluffy face to sell the regressive Abbott agenda.
Wewantpaul @103 So what is your daughter’s solution? Allow Israel to be subject to another Shoah by the Arabs and Persians?
Fess
Which is why i dont get that if Turnbull is going to announce some big picture stuff, is he prepared to cop the criticism now of a Leader perceived to be continuing the regressive Abbott agenda.
[ Can I ask,
Most of you realise Turnbull’s DD plan is Abbott’s DD plan?
The same plan they’ve had in place since announcing TURC? ]
Yet it tripped up the treasurer and the media and solicited quite the brainfart from the disgruntled ex PM
Senator Dean Smith appears to have developed Turnbull’s selfie addiction. And also appears no longer happy with his previously self declared title as Senator for the Great Southern:
[Senator Dean Smith added 2 new photos.
13 mins ·
Yesterday it was great to meet Tina Altieri. Tina shared tales of her school years at Girrawheen Senior High School, and I recounted my tales about Mirrabooka Senior High School.
Today I met with Paul Holmes a Court, head of Heytesbury Cattle Co. – one of Northern Australia’s leading producers of quality export cattle. Paul and I spoke at length about the issues facing the Kimberley pastoral industry, and the importance of cattle production to the development of Northern Australia.]
https://www.facebook.com/SenatorDeanSmith/posts/1145466058810805
Everybody here talks about a Federal ICAC, but I do have reservations. There is less scope for direct (bags of money) corruption at the Federal level. Most of the corruption is soft: expense fiddling; lobbyist access, etc etc. Those things must be stamped out. But I’m not sure you stamp that out with an ICAC.
For those interested – quote topical, really – the original (UK) version of House of Cards (1990) is on GEM 92 now.
CTar1
[
It’s getting serious. A meeting in the now name changed Cabinet Office Briefing Room ‘A’ is reported.
Be very afraid … the end is nigh.]
I heard Cameron and “COBRA” mentioned a few minutes back. Wasn’t really listening but I’m sure you’ll know what is going on.
Compact Crank@115
Ask the moderate Israelis in favour of peace with their neighbours.
That said, Labor should, for optics, go for a Federal ICAC (though it could turn its first term into a disaster)
confessions@79
To be fair about 57% are backing Shorten. I think another recent poll rate Pilbesek higher than Shorten or Albo.
vic:
I haven’t read Tingle’s commentary so don’t know what others are referring to with this big picture announcement. But the govt clearly cannot fight the election on their hugely unpopular 2014 budget no matter how important it is to them to implement its full suite of measures.
[To be fair about 57% are backing Shorten.]
Nearly 43% of Greens voters rate Turnbull the better PM. 43% even after all the cave ins and backflips!
Compact Crank@99
I wouldn’t put one group of extremist religious people over another. It was only very recently in Burma that we had groups of extremist Buddhist groups openly attacking the Rohyinga minority.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@123
I am not 100% sure all Labor members are cleanskins, but I bet there is one hell of a lot more muck on the other side.
On balance, Labor will do very well out of an ICAC.
Fess
Peter Martin last week had this to say
[While the media have been obsessing about tax, Malcolm Turnbull has been focused on setting Australia up. To do it, he’ll need to borrow big sums of money for exceptionally long periods at extraordinarily low interest rates.
We should have done it sooner. Right now Australia can borrow for 10 years at 2.7 per cent, just a few points above the the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 2.5 per cent, meaning we are able to get money for close to nothing. But it’s still unattractive for long-term projects because there’s a risk that in a decade’s time when the loans have to be refinanced, the new rates will be higher. So Turnbull’s looking at borrowing for 30 years.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbulls-budget-will-be-big-and-bold-and-about-boom-20160315-gnjd2y.html#ixzz43clz2lIo
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Cory Bernardi Sent An “Offensive” Email To A Mum Who Supports Safe Schools http://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/cory-bernardi-told-a-mother-he-worried-for-her-kids?utm_term=.wceB1ZEOQ … via @@lanesainty
http://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/cory-bernardi-told-a-mother-he-worried-for-her-kids?utm_term=.reGP4ZVg6#.qqaD7l3o2
Cory Bernardi disgraces our parliament.
[ Imacca @33 I don’t believe William has ever taken any action to limit my participation here. ]
Sorry CC, got you mixed up with another RW moron. 🙂
Bemused @122 The Palestinians clearly have no intention of a negotiated peace. Israel takes defensive actions to ensure its’ on going survival.
The Middle East is full of examples of the way Arabs and Persians treat their enemies – should Israel ignore those examples, disarm and allow their enemies to do what they wish?
confessions,
Getting some much needed rain around Albany in the next day or so I see. 🙂
confessions@126
I’ll take any support for Shorten any day over Turnbull. Neither of those people are someone from their party base.
The question is why 21.6% of Labor supporters would even consider backing Turnbull over Shorten.
After hearing the Triple 0 call from the Lindt Cafe does anyone still believe it wasn’t a terrorist attack?
Compact Crank@132
As dumb as asking if Australia should disarm.
I was joking earlier when I said TBA was the smart one, but now I’m not so sure it isn’t so.
Israel could start by stopping the illegal settlements on Palestinian land and clamping down on the neo-fascist settler movement.
[Rowdy drinkers should ‘piss off’ home: NT Chief Minister
By James Oaten
Posted about an hour ago | Updated about an hour ago
The NT Government unveils an alcohol management plan in Alice Springs similar to one in Katherine that police say has pushed problem drinkers into Darwin, but Adam Giles says itinerant people from remote communities who get drunk and cause trouble should just go home.]
As predicted by yours truly as the inevitable consequence of both the Intervention and of Abbott/Turnbull cuts of $500 million in program spending.
[ In short, borrow for 30 years at cheap rates and invest heavily in city capacity building stuff.
In other words, the Budget is very likely not to be a series of whimpers but will contain some very loud bangs. ]
To which Bill says..
” Great! Should have been doing it years ago to fund a proper NBN, but good to see you have caught up with rational economics Mal. WE fully support that aspect of the Budget just so long as it does NOT come as a package with unfair spending cuts, tax relief for the rich and big companies, and selling everything in sight like Medicare……”
It can be turned on them easily, particularly given their Debt and Deficit hysteria which is not that long ago. I suspect that the Libs may go for big borrowings, Spending cuts, and still FAIL to address revenue in any meaningful way.
Compact Crank@135
Of course it wasn’t a terrorist attack.
It was a deranged nutter masquerading as a wanna be terrorist.
poroti
[but I’m sure you’ll know what is going on.]
Yeah, they’re having a meeting.
The Beeb said the ‘COBRA security committee’ … the invitation list from the last ’emergency’ meeting was probably used.
Very handy if floods are the problem.
confessions,
In the last Reachtell poll in February approx 66% of greens supported Turnbull as better PM.
So there has been a significant turnaround this poll and that is in just over a month.
Perhaps a significant percentage of the greens still preferring Malcolm are liberal lites with green edges and a distaste for the Abbott policies and still hoping Turnbull will turn things around.
Just a thought.
Cheers.
Bemused @136 So once Israel has withdrawn to its 1947 borders and the attacks continue what then?
imacca
What you say may be true. I was thinking more that the Budget will be the piece de resistance of the Turnbull election campaign and that it will therefore have to have some big things in it.
Mega seemed to me to be thinking that both major parties have worked themselves to much the same space: that growth is going to depend on governments borrowing lots of money to do capacity building stuff.
One of the implications is that the Budget will be constructed as the first of a ten years worth of budgets.
It is why the Defence White Paper had a 30 year time horizon.
It is why Abbott and Hockey were no longer mentioning debt and surpluses and why Morrison extended the surplus horizon beyond ten years.
If he and his team are agile Shorten will need to bed his policy suite down into a 10-30 year horizon.
[CTar1
Very handy if floods are the problem.]
*laughs*
Compact Crank@142
You are assuming something which may not happen.
Israel would have international sympathy and it would be highly likely the US and maybe NATO would back its security.
Israel should reach out to the Palestinians to help them build a prosperous future.
Bemused @136 Will the “Palestinians” accept being Jordanians and Egytians once Israel withdraws to 1947 borders?
[119
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Everybody here talks about a Federal ICAC, but I do have reservations. There is less scope for direct (bags of money) corruption at the Federal level. Most of the corruption is soft: expense fiddling; lobbyist access, etc etc. Those things must be stamped out. But I’m not sure you stamp that out with an ICAC.]
I agree. Restricting/banning paid lobbying and banning donations/instituting public-only financing of elections would deal with most of that soft corruption.
Having said that, a federal ICAC can’t hurt.
vic:
Interesting. I wonder if a re-elected Turnbull would be allowed by his partyroom to borrow such large amounts of money after the surplus at all costs nonsense the Liberals have built their economic capital on.
Interesting revelation that Monis had shot at fleeing hostages several minutes before he murdered Tori Johnson.
Compact Crank@146
Why should they?