This evening’s Seven News has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll of around 3000 respondents, conducted last night in the immediate aftermath of the Prime Minister’s announcement on election timing. The poll shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 at the last poll on February 11; Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 60-40, well down on 74.9-25.1 in the last poll; and a slight edge in favour of the double dissolution ultimatum. More detail to follow. UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes are Coalition 46.6% (down 1.5%), Labor 34.4% (up 1.6%) and Greens 10.5% (up 0.4%). The double dissolution ultimatum has 39.3% support and 32.5% opposition.
Also out today was the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which was steady at 50-50 with both major parties up on the primary vote – the Coalition by one point to 43%, Labor by two to 38% – with the Greens are down one to 10%. Further questions found 34% saying they would approve of a double dissolution election if the Senate rejected the bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 22% disapproving and 44% opting for “don’t know” – a provident question, since it was set well before yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister. As for the substance of the bill, 35% supported the government line, 17% were opposed, 27% opted for neither, and 22% said they didn’t know.
Another question found no change in opinion on Tony Abbott’s future since December: 18% wanted him back in the ministry, another 18% wanted him to stay on the back bench, 29% thought he should resign now, and 18% thought he should do so at the election. In response to talk of plebiscites for same sex marriage, another question asked what other issues should be dealt with in this way. The results suggested strong support for plebiscites on social issues (61% favour one for euthanasia and 58% for abortion), but mild opposition for economic ones, and strong opposition concerning the size of the defence force (14% support, 71% opposition). The online survey encompassed 1003 respondents, with the voting intention question also including responses from last week’s sample.
Federal Labor backflips all the time. Supporting a national ICAC is a backflip I would welcome.
Steely’s right, of course, that the odds are against Labor this time.
But the suggestion made by him or some other Coalition poster that Shorten will be dumped if he doesn’t make it and be replace by Albo sounds like complete bullshit. He’s done very well.
Well that settles it. This week’s Bludgertrack will show another tightening even if Bilbo adjusts his Morgan adjustment. It will also show another big fall in Turnbull’s netsat and tightening of PPM.
All on track.
A third explosion at Brussels Metro.
Whether an act is intentional, reckless or negligent is the most important factor in determining the level of criminality and hence the penalty.
psyclaw – In the city rather than at the airport this time.
Another bomb has gone of at the Brussels metro train station.
Put me down as another who would be delighted if Labor reversed their opposition to a Federal ICAC. Even putting aside that the decision is right IMHO, and would be popular, it would:
– beautifully wedge Turnbull. If you’re serious about corruption old son lets see the same rules apply to everyone, including all the businesses that donate to your cause
– be rejected by the Libs, so turning the questions back at them. “It was just union bashing wasn’t it?” “You’re just trying to hurt Labor aren’t you?” “What are you so afraid a Federal ICAC might find?”
– Because the change is really significant it would give the Senate a legitimate cause for taking a REALLY long time with it and they’d have non-stop media coverage to air all the reasons why a Federal ICAC is needed, and the fact it might even go into the Budget sessions would just be one of those things. Big reforms take time.
Crude as it is to say right now, I shudder at how Tony might have leveraged this (apparent) event in the midst of an election campaign.
Paris too
Odds on Turnbull throwing out the calm response to terrorism and calling in every flag in Canberra to go Full Abbott?
Je Suis Tony Abbott.
At 52-48 the Coalition are beatable. 😀
Re: Morrison’s being left out of the picture on the date.
Could it be as simple as ensuring that he had plausible deniability?
@ALeighMP and @SenatorSurfer carrying on like pork chops on twitter. Pity neither seem to feel like having a shot at the Libs instead! Almost make Mal & Tony look like bosom buddies! https://twitter.com/rod_hagen/status/712188038210789376
Two guys who should know better. Great opportunity for you to screw a great opportunity with petty crap, Andrew and Peter! I’d hate to have to stop Senate preferencing at the Pirates now I have real control over such things. Get real, people!
Brussells. 🙁
Maylbeek subway station is about 400m from La Berlaymont (the EC HQ).
The polls will probably be very tight until voters can make a clear decision on whether Turnbull has his Party under control or he is just the patsy for Abbott.
If that thought takes hold, then the Lib ratings will crash.
I am having trouble reconciling those primaries with the 2pp. It looks more like 53-47 to me.
That said, I think we can say with confidence that the coalition pv is overstated at 46.6.
The trend is the interesting part. A clear move to Labor, with the likelihood of more to come. So some interesting times ahead.
Brussels! So many questions, how can they hate that much?
Good questions from ReachTEL and Essential. Happy to see that 2 point swing as well.
Arts-Loi the second city subway station.
When the 6PM start showing the Prime Minister yawning, and having his makeup applied, then you know they don’t have a very high opinion of him.
I remember back in the day during a long campaign, I think it was during the Howard era and Twitter had just begun, that the big name political journos became very angry at the PM because, once an election is called they have to go out on the road with the PM and Opposition Leader, whereas at any other time it’s the junior woodchucks.
So they get crammed onto the campaign bus, and they get on, and they get off, and they get on, and they get off, and they have to eat crappy truck stop food. Then they do it all again the next day. And the day after that. And the day after that. And on and on and on and on.
By about the middle of the road trip they start becoming very jaundiced in their reports, and if any little thing goes wrong they magnify it because they have to have something to talk about and better a misstep than the same old stump speech.
By the end they have hardened in their opinions and you can pretty much guess who they think should win.
Btw, it just occurred to me, I bet Malcolm has such delusions of grandeur that he sees himself in this election as the Australian simulacrum of the American Presidential contest. Hence his belief he can do a long campaign, and succeed, as they do.
I don’t think our political journos will agree.
D’oh! ‘6PM News’.
[Brussels! So many questions, how can they hate that much?]
It’s not hate, Steely. It’s an evil action of breathtakingly vicious cynicism.
Its only intention is to provoke a widespread and indiscriminate backlash against all Muslims in Belgium that will force more Muslims (who had absolutely nothing to do with ISIS and these bastards) into the arms of these bastards because they think they are being blamed and attacked for what happened despite having nothing to do with it.
The immediate, visceral reaction is one of anger, and opposition to the perpetrators on a tribal basis. If we fall for that and don’t rise above it we become like Syria
55
shellbell
Whether an act is intentional, reckless or negligent is the most important factor in determining the level of criminality and hence the penalty.
Of course you are right. My statement strictly related to a company’s culpability in failing to comply with OH&S i.e. it is not a defence that a company “didn’t know OH&S regulations were not being complied with”.
Additionally, I think penalties need to be a lot stiffer (particularly for very large corporations), and I would argue that liability needs to be stricter.
Darn @ 67,
Yeah. Looks like the punters are prepared to give Bill Shorten a second glance but they haven’t jumped ship from the Coalition yet.
JimmyDoyle
Most Occupational Health & Safety Laws are built around an employer or a controller of a site ensuring safety of a site which creates strict liability.
Bigger fines for corporate offenders is one thing. Another is smaller companies put themselves into administration to avoid paying fines
[Yeah. Looks like the punters are prepared to give Bill Shorten a second glance but they haven’t jumped ship from the Coalition yet.]
As planned by Labor
TPOF@77
You are wildly optimistic about Labor’s ability to control events and plan for them.
[Looks like the punters are prepared to give Bill Shorten a second glance]
I’m still gobsmacked that nearly 43% of Greens voters rate Turnbull as better PM! After his spineless caving in on efficient GHGEs abatement, marriage equality, the Safe Schools thing, and quietly funding research into the existence of wind farm syndrome after sacking how many climate researchers at CSIRO, how could any Greens voter much less over a third of them think Turnbull is even a good PM at all?
[You are wildly optimistic about Labor’s ability to control events and plan for them.]
All I’m saying is that Labor planned that if Turncoat and his government started to screw up Shorten will present publicly in the third year as someone quite different from the public image of a grey Union wheeler and dealer.
[ how could any Greens voter much less over a third of them think Turnbull is even a good PM at all?]
They imagine he looks pretty suave (in an Eastern Suburbs kinda way) in a black skivvy under his leather jacket.
TPOF@80
So there was an alternative?
Authorities are suggesting that the Brussels attack are in response to the mastermind of Paris attacks being caught yesterday
Confessions at 79
People don’t want to revisit their assumptions and previous decided conclusions. It’s a natural part of survival. So a lot of people across the board want to like Turncoat and dislike Shorten.
Shifting columns is a relatively slow business, like abandoning a political party you have voted for all your life and voting for the other side. As the campaign progresses the process of changing columns will accelerate.
[Bridget O’Flynn
2m2 minutes ago
Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn
Alan Jones: Malcolm Turnbull is not a leader’s bootlace.
#richoandjones]
ratsak:
Seriously though it is a truly WTF result.
Imacca @33 I don’t believe William has ever taken any action to limit my participation here.
victoria
It is no longer called “Richo and Jones” . Three weeks or so back it changed its name to “Why Turnbull is a Crap PM”.
Have just been over to listen to Tingle and Megalogenis in conversation, mostly about George’s Quarterly Essay.
Sifting through the implications, the conversation seemed to me to be reinforcing the article by Peter Martin the other day.
In short, borrow for 30 years at cheap rates and invest heavily in city capacity building stuff.
In other words, the Budget is very likely not to be a series of whimpers but will contain some very loud bangs.
As a side issue I note that one of the Morrison is on the outer is that he is doing old style neo-Liberal economics and Morrison, Parkinson, Gruen and Cormann have moved right along.
Day to day politics was avoided but it was clear that both Tingle and Megalogenis regard Abbott as a loose cannon.
If there is one area where I think Megalogenis is not on the ball, it is the implications of global warming.
[So there was an alternative?]
Yes. The usual process of an opposition leader being out front in the first half of the term trying to “cut through” as so many here, and not just the usual suspects, demanded. By deliberately keeping a relatively low profile Shorten avoided irretrievable entrenchment of the image that was being sold by the Government and the MSM.
William @40 Thanks for that. I hadn’t got to that point before I responded to @33.
TPOF:
Yeah but we’re talking here about the very issues that voters vote Green in the first place: the environment, social equality like SSM and I’d forgotten refugees as another area that animates Greens voters but for which you’d think they’d mark Turnbull down as failing on.
I get people can be slow to change their attitudes, but these are supposedly signature election issues for Greens voters that Turnbull has failed so spectacularly on.
Alan Jones: Malcolm Turnbull is not a leader’s bootlace.
Oh dear. Here comes Tony.
Just as well he looks like the bitter, revengeful former leader that he is. 😀
TPOF@90
Not buying it.
CC at 87
A totally reasonable confusion between you and TBA.
Crank in the deluded but not nasty group (feel sorry for him).
[I don’t believe William has ever taken any action to limit my participation here.]
We luvs ya Cranky. In a treat em mean keep em keen kinda way.
Bemused @ 94
That’s cool. I’m not selling. Just sharing on a voluntary basis.
The Bhuddists are at it again in Brussels.
Nothing to do with religion, apparently.
Polls can sometimes be like buses. They may all come at once.
They’re showing the original UK version of House of Cards tonight on 9Gem at 8.40pm.