Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

The first Newspoll of the year records next to no change on voting intention, although Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground on preferred prime minister.

The Australian has brought us the first Newspoll result of the year, and it supports the trend of other polling in suggesting nothing much has changed over the new year break. The Coalition’s two-party lead remains at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up one), Labor 34% (up one) and Greens 11% (down one). Bill Shorten has at least made up ground on preferred prime minister, which Malcolm Turnbull now leads 59-20, down from 60-14 in the last poll in December. The poll also records 54% opposition to an increase in the goods and services tax to 15% accompanied by tax cuts and compensation, with 37% in support. Stay tuned for Turnbull’s and Shorten’s personal ratings.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is on 53% approval and 31% disapproval, which is up a point on both counts since the last poll, while Shorten is up two to 25% and down one to 60%.

UPDATE 2: A second tranche of results from the poll finds 71% favouring an election late in the year compared with only 21% for an election in the first half of the year. Opinions on Tony Abbott’s future are finely balanced: 46% would have him remain in politics (26% on the front bench, 20% on the back bench), while 45% want him to bow out at the next election.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest two-week rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition lead back to 51-49 after its brief stay at 52-48 last week, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Further results suggest a curious drop in support for a republic since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister, with support down three since September to 36% and opposition up two to 31%. When specified that the change might occur at the end of Queen Elizabeth II’s reign, support goes up to 45%, with opposition at 29%. Fifty-six per cent think it likely that Australia will one day be a republic, compared with 24% unlikely. Despite this, there is broad opposition to changing the flag (33% support, 55% oppose), the national anthem (28% support, 54% oppose) and the date of Australia Day (23% support, 59% oppose).

A semi-regular question on trust in various media sources finds a slight across-the-board improvement since June last year, without disturbing the usual pattern of public broadcasting being viewed more favourably than the commercial media, and straight news being rated higher than opinion in its various forms. However, a question on individual newspapers finds opinions of The Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald-Sun have improved, while the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Courier-Mail have not. This all but eliminates the gap between The Australian and the Fairfax titles, although the News Corp tabloids (particularly the Courier-Mail) continue to trail the pack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. It appears that the ABC have been kowtowing to Malcolm Turnbull after the 2013 election as well:

    From:
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/01/30/abc-appoints-michelle-guthrie-after-flawed-selection-process/14540724002823

    ‘ Spigelman’s guiding hand in the process seemed, on my inquiries, to be more focused on the ABC’s relationship with the prime minister than fear of a News Corp vilification campaign at any Williams appointment.

    Both Turnbull and Spigelman had been heard talking about a “Google lady” some time before the process started. Turnbull, according to my informants, was consulted during the scoping discussion with Egon Zehnder for the selection. It is not known if Turnbull knew Guthrie, but he could well have met her through his close friend Bruce McWilliam, who worked with Guthrie at the law firm Allen Allen and Hemsley and again at BSkyB.

    “Guthrie is Turnbull’s pick,” one failed candidate told me.’

    So much for an independent ABC Board.

  4. From link at 52

    [The Australian Federal Police has confirmed Christopher Pyne and Wyatt Roy have joined Mal Brough in being questioned over the alleged illegal copying of Peter Slipper’s diary.]

    Its not paywalled.

  5. ‘ Here’s David Rowe’s cartoon – and it’s a beauty!’

    If Malcolm Turnbull stands that close to the net when Bill Shorten serves it up to him then he will surely lose as Bill lobs his shots straight over his head! 😀

  14. Notwithstanding another undeniably strong result for Turnbull in this poll continuing the trend, it seems he is about to be faced with a truckload of significant issues including highly divisive internal problems, the gst increase that a majority of voters still disagree with, marriage equality & formulating a budget during difficult economic times. The coming weeks & months should prove very interesting regardless of the results.

  16. The ABC radio news at 7:45 (Melbourne) had the GST story. Only the ‘headline’ was 34% support it without a firm proposal on the table. Buried in the detail was the fact that 54% oppose it.
    I note that the story on the ABC website was edited so I wonder if they got comments about it.
    Most interesting after the various discussions on the ABC on here.

  18. Another poll showing Obama’s net rating in the positive.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    People starting to realise he aint so bad after all. And it still amazes that his rating is anywhere near positive considering what they think of politicians in general with congress approval at -63!

    With snow forecast, its looking likely that Cruz will win Iowa. Yikes. I prefer Trump.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/25/your-real-time-iowa-caucus-weather-tracker/

  21. LaborHerald: “…Labor will consider criminal offences for intentional and outrageous conduct by employers” @BOConnorMP #auspol

  29. [Good to see Labor come out of the blocks today…..]

    Just wait. There’ll be someone who complains that Shorten shouldn’t be announcing policies, shouldn’t be doing this, shouldn’t be doing that. And if only Shorten did X, Y, Z etc etc.

  30. guytaur

    Ah. Thanks. I heard an excerpt of Cormann talking about the GST this morning. Funny how it is part of the debate now. Not that long ago, Labor was accused of a false scare campaign re the GST

  34. guytaur

    Appreciate the feedback re the Shorten presser. I was hoping we would get that from him on the resumption of parliament. Excellent!

  36. If Labor play it smart, Turnbull will soon be feeling heaps of pressure soon from them and from those within his own party

  37. Hmmm… the TURC was always an audacious attempt by the Liberal Party to pretend that it was interested in the welfare of workers.

    This morning Bill returned serve. Great presser.

    The best of it:

    Liberal reporter plant: ‘Aren’t you just demonising employers?’

    Shorten wtte,’No, I am demonising crooks.’

  40. guytaur

    Please spare us Phil Hudson. Turnbull is a weathervane, just like Abbott. Trying to be all things to all people but trying to implement the Liberal agenda

  43. Victoria

    At least Phil Hudson is reporting the Newspoll accurately. More than most journalists I have seen doing so far.

    Doing that he will have to say soon exactly what you did regarding Turnbull being a weathervane.

  45. Tony Abbott has reportedly held a private meeting with US President Barack Obama in Washington.

    The former prime minister also held secret talks with the president’s spy chief, News Corp reported on Monday, noting that the meetings could irk Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

    Mr Abbott and Mr Obama met at an exclusive banquet on Saturday night, with sources saying the two had a very warm and intimate discussion.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/02/01/abbott-meets-obama-in-washington.html?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56ae724e04d3011f234403c8&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter#sthash.NXL4UfPi.dpuf

  46. [PhillipMHudson: Turnbull genuinely undecided about increasing the GST. Newspoll will give him further cause for caution.]

    Again Turnbull has boxed himself in. It’s obvious as dog’s balls that the plan has always been for a GST election. Turnbull is fully signed up to it. A good solid majority of Libs are gagging for it (cause they’ll gain more from the accompanying tax cuts).

    If Turnbull squibs on that one who is going to be in any doubt he’s an empty suit, the flim flam man? It will be that there hasn’t been a single thing he hasn’t backed away from.

    No, he has to go to the election with a GST proposal or he will be utterly discredited as standing for nothing. His own party won’t cop that. He’ll be expected to demonstrate this super ability to win a tough argument (like with the Republic…) that he’s been going on with behind the scenes to win over caucus.

  49. guytaur,
    Do you know whether Bill Shorten puts up his pressers anywhere but Periscope? I can’t find it on You Tube. Does the ABC cache them somewhere? If only on Periscope, how do you get it on Twitter? Thanks. I often miss them and wish to catch up with them later. 🙂

  50. The only reason Malcolm Turnbull has ever come out in support of anything is so he has something to back away from next week.

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