Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. William Bowe@39

    Slav G, I mean it’s adjusted heavily in favour of Labor, because the poll is deemed to be heavily in favour of the Coalition.

    Ah now that you wrote that, rereading your original post makes sense :-). Thanks.

  2. GG

    Whoosha (although to all reasonable knowledge not on the white powders etc, etc, etc) but who was around when there was evidently chemical turmoil in the Eagle’s Nest.

    Whoosha hires Bluey, not only ex Eagles but what did the Suns run into trouble with?

    Now Crowley.

    They must be brain dead.

  3. I’ve written to the PM today urging him to save Qld Nickel and look at bridging finance until the market recovers.

    Gotta look after them corporate Party owners…..government money ok for miners but not car manufacturing

  4. GG, he was my favourite Eagle. We were so fortunate to see him a few years back at the Opera House, backed by the SSO. Talented, funny, humble and a huge part of so many lives. I’m gutted.

  5. SUSC

    The coal mine is not on the flood plain, however you define it, I believe.

    They should have banned Shenhua because of climate change.

    The other values and considerations are generally third or fourth order issues.

  6. of course the band the Eagles….there I was racking my brain trying to remember what position he played for West Coast….

  7. zoomster

    specific taxation measures that can discriminate by region…
    Not allowed under the Constitution.]
    Young Gina is pretty keen on creating a special tax zone up “North”.

  8. Boer

    yes, I’m aware of them, not quite sure how it works, because the Constitution is very clear about it (wiggle room because NT isn’t a state?)

    My sons receive an extra payment under Youth Allowance because they come from this area. However, because of the Constitution stuff, it can’t be badged as part of YA. Instead, it is called a scholarship.

    A lot of government payments have similar arrangements.

    Basically, the founding fathers were worried that varying taxation rates according to region would disadvantage country people, who could be charged more because it’s more expensive for the government to provide them with services.

    So there may be ways around the problem, but it exists.

  9. Boerwar

    Yes. Living in a “remote” region meant you could get a concession from the tax dept. In .W.A. it was being over 160 kilometres from a post office or some such.

  10. Puff

    I think it’s a rebate – so you pay the same amount of tax as everyone else, but it gets given back to you. (Really don’t know!)

  11. Boerwar@64

    There used to be regional variations in taxation arrangements when we first went to the NT in the mid-seventies.

    I recall ‘Zone Allowances’, one of which I thought covered a big part of Northern Australia across State & Territory boundaries.

  12. [Ruddock really should’ve retired long ago.]

    Ruddock really should’ve retired at the time of his passing.

    Hello all from sunny Sri Lanka. Back home Thurs

    Not taking much out of polling yet, but there are the first green shoots of the growing disenchantment I predicted would take full form after the budget.

  13. They wont change Shorten the ALP will have a crack but they are pretty much resigned to take the beating, change the leader after the election and try again three years later.

  14. 68

    The uniform taxation rule only applies to Commonwealth taxes in the states, so the NT, ACT and other territories are not covered.

    State taxes are also not covered, so all not excise and import duty taxes can be varied by different states charging different rates including at multiple different rates within themselves.

    Why would youth allowance be covered by the uniform taxation rule? It is not a tax. It is a benefit to students, the same provision (51xxiii. A., inserted by the only ALP introduced constitutional referendum to pass) that allows general Commonwealth scholarships.

  15. Notice that the claims that the ABC is biased by the RWNJ has stopped now that the obvious bias is for the right wing.

    Unethical stance by the RWNJ….it’s only bias when something is ‘bad” being said about the right wing.

  16. Once again Malcolm shows that he is a total hostage to the RWNJs in his party and is just a hood ornament. How can you have a party where nobody gets challenged? Those who thought Malcolm was going to clean up the party need their heads examined.

  17. [Destruction of ISIL requires boots on the ground. But they must be the right boots on the right ground]

    one legged soldiers, righties only – no lefties

  18. Downer’s name shouldn’t be used in the same article as ‘intelligence’ – let alone have been on ‘advisory board’.

    [ lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    British foreign officials have privately expressed disquiet about Australia’s diplomatic post link to a shadowy security firm that sells intelligence to corporate clients.

    Created by former MI6 British Secret Service agents, Hakluyt is an ultra secretive firm ….services for strategic intelligence and advice.

    Australian High Commissioner to the UK Alexander Downer had been on the advisory board of the London-headquartered firm since 2008. ]

  19. Zone Allowances are still there at tax time for workers north of the 26 parallel. Its to compensate for the high cost of living …$368(?) per year for a single

  20. Just watched The Drum. Sheridan was at his raving worst, interrupting the expert guest and rabbiting on and on. I think he thought he was defending Abbott, but it was hard to tell 😉

  21. Tom

    I might be operating under a false assumption, but I thought the provisions around taxation also extended to benefits – thus the extra payment to rural students can’t be part of YA, so it is badged as a scholarship.

    You might be right, and I might be making connections that aren’t there.

  22. victoria

    Meanwhile leftie boots need not apply]
    I’m all for handing the “righties” a back pack , rifle and a parachute.

  23. 87

    I can see no reason why they would be connected, given the wording of the Constitution. (Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer.)

  24. poroti@88



    Meanwhile leftie boots need not apply

    I’m all for handing the “righties” a back pack , rifle and a parachute.

    You left out the free flight to Syria or similar destination. 😉

  25. lizzie

    [ I think he thought he was defending Abbott, but it was hard to tell ;)]
    For comedy gold I’d love to see a duet of Sheridan and Gerard Henderson “defending Abbott”.

  26. poroti

    However, he did dismiss the NSW Libs as wracked by factions and ruled by lobbyists, so he’s not completely off the planet.

  27. lizzie

    [ so he’s not completely off the planet.]
    Can be sensible buy on the topic of Tones he teleports to a galaxy far far away.

  28. Labor will do better in direct relation to the worsening of the economy. Australians want a safety net; they don’t want to diversify out of unproductive real estate, and innovate and take on risk and extra work in productive business, order to get the country out of trouble. Hence Turnbull could, if he wants to be sure of winning, head to the polls sooner rather than later. If wants expectations to fall, he could go later. But if employment and house prices stall, he may find himself in trouble. Heaven forbid. We haven’t yet quashed the colonials and it would be a return to son of Abbott.

  29. [Now Crowley.

    They must be brain dead.

    Noone at the eagles ever got caught although rumours are three or so players managed to trick the club and drug testers.

    Crowley got caught taking a pain killer on the naughty list, and did his 12 months as a drug cheat.

    Essendon engaged in systematic performance enhancing doping which was spectacularly effective early in the season and the players lied to drug testers.

    Yet people talk of stripping the eagles of their premiership while the AFL runs a protection racquet to help them compete. They are lucky people as good as McKenna, Worsfold and Crowley are prepared to go anywhere near their filthy cheating organisation. If the AFL had any credibility at all Essendon wouldn’t be allowed to field a team.

  30. [24.They wont change Shorten ]

    Something we agree on, although a loss is by no way guaranteed.

    The old west wing trick of letting Abbott be Abbott has already knocked down one dud PM. Let Turnbull be Turnbull has worked to get rid of him as a dud op leader, there is still time for it to be the end of him as a dud PM.

  31. [Crowley was banned from playing in 2015 because of steroid use.]

    I don’t think that is correct unless there was a banned steroid in a pain medication.

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