Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 14
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  1. The government can and does use fiscal policy to target particular regions. Government spending is a fiscal tool. Governments spend on particular regions all the time. A hospital here. A railway there. Taxation is the other side of fiscal policy. Taxes can be adjusted in ways that affect particular regions. Taxes that apply to farms affect regions that have farms.

    Monetary policy, on the other hand, cannot be targeted by region, or by income group, or by occupation, or by property status (owner-occupier vs investor vs renter). If the interest rate changes, it changes equally for everybody.

  3. Nicholas

    Taxes can be adjusted in ways that affect particular regions. Taxes that apply to farms affect regions that have farms.

    In that case, you should be able to find some concrete examples. If you can’t, perhaps there’s a reason.

  4. 3.Apparently, Crowley took Methadone.

    Which now ranks as the second stupidest thing he has done with joining Essendon topping the list.

    Will be funny seeing dockers fans spew as he tries on his cheating against them.

  6. The High Court decision was on the collection of tax rates and equality thereof.

    It was not about the spending of taxpayers money. If it had been the Coag formula would be out the window.

  8. ..I will hastily add that when I started out trying to write policy, I got exactly the same kind of criticism I’m offering Nicholas. The difference was, I took it on board, and as a result was able to come up with policy which actually worked in the real world, and was thus able to have it implemented.

    If you want to change the world, even a little bit, you have to understand how it works. Sometimes you can change the workings, but more often you just get to tweak things a bit.

  14. If you want to change the world, even a little bit, you have to understand how it works. Sometimes you can change the workings, but more often you just get to tweak things a bit.

    Nicely put. And you can only do it by putting yourself up and holding yourself out.

    The Palais in St Kilda isn’t offering a bar tonight – they could have made a fortune on me alone.

  16. From Canadian Mining and Energy

    In solar—and wind—diesel hybrid applications, the business case consists of partly replacing expensive energy from diesel with inexpensive solar or wind energy. As diesel prices are falling, the equation seems to be no longer valid. On closer examination, we see that mining companies that typically have huge energy needs for their production processes can actually take advantage of the situation. More and more investors are willing to finance large solar and wind power plants at remote mine sites and sell diesel reductions or electricity back to miners in so-called power purchase agreements (PPAs).

  17. Steelydan

    Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    You guys will already know but that pick up artist guy has had his visa cancelled

    Briggs?

  19. He loves to bully, doesn’t he, Dear Malcolm. Just can’t help himself. Anyone who stands in his way is viciously attacked.

  20. Zoomster, you never really learned the difference between between being wise and being a wiseass, did you? Taxes can be targeted at particular economic activities, and not all and not all economic activities exist to equal degrees on all places. The economic activity profile of regions can vary markedly. Therefore, if a part of the country is stagnant economically, taxes can be reduced on activities that predominate in that type of region. Or government spending can be increased for infrastructure and services in those regions. Spending on infrastructure and services in a certain part of the country affects that part of the country more than it affects places where that spending isn’t being done. You understand that but you love to play the role of obtuse smartarse.

    An interest rate rise or cut is a blunt tool that binds all regions, all income groups, all occupations. Fiscal policy can be tailored to a very sophisticated degree. Monetary policy can’t. I know that you understand this point – you verbal people like it’s a bodily function, but you are not dumb. So quit the 13-year-old school debater routine. You’re just adopting a contrary position because you get off on that, not because you have any interest in the relative merits of fiscal and monetary policy as tools for influencing economic outcomes.

  21. Zoomster

    What about Deputy Fed Tax Commissioner V W. R. Moran Pty Ltd (HC 1939.)

    s96 allows differential tax regimes, eg for particular industries.

  23. Nicholas

    Yes.

    In the case I just cited, the Commonwealth gave handouts back to wheat producing states, based on wheat production (compensation for a special tax that had been levied on flour.)

    Tassy got no compo (being a non-wheat state) and claimed discrimination between states, breaching s99.

    The HC said “begone you fools…. this is not discrimination between states.” ie “FO” or WTTE.

  24. He loves to bully, doesn’t he, Dear Malcolm. Just can’t help himself. Anyone who stands in his way is viciously attacked.

    Yeah I’ve always wondered where the delusion that Talcolm does debate comes from. He does none stop bullshit in the hope no one will have the energy to correct his crap. If someone does return fire with facts Mal goes straight for the ad hominems and abuse. He’s a grub.

  25. Sorry

    My #121 reference to s96 is wrong.

    It allows Commonwealth to financially assist any state. And it is not per se hindered by s99, the can’t-discriminate-between-states provision.

  27. Nicholas

    Taxes can be targeted at particular economic activities, and not all and not all economic activities exist to equal degrees on all places.

    Yes, but that’s not the sort of thing you were talking about – you were talking about taxing the same thing a different way according to locality. That’s not allowed.

  28. Ratsak

    He’s a charismatic grub. The punters love him without even listening to what he says, because he is pleasant and avuncular, in stark contrast to Abbott, and he smiles at them and appears to listen (but only” appears”).

    Just like The Sting (Pail Newman et al) …….. the perfect sting is when punters never find out they’ve been stung.

  29. Haven’t seen the article but apparently Potato Head is planning to send around 70 children from Australia to Nauru, including 33 born in Australia. I thought that made them Aussie citizens?

  37. I see Mr Turnbull was getting a bit of stick here earlier for the manner in which he saluted with his hand on his heart, American style.

    A bit unfair, I thought. It reminded me of similar stick that people tried to apply to Mr Keating when he addressed President Suharto as “Bapak” (“Father”). In that case, he was simply using a polite form of address used to men in Indonesia over a certain age, no doubt on the advice of the Australian Embassy. I would guess Mr Turnbull may well have been advised on how the Americans salute.

    We can probably all agree in expecting Mr Turnbull to represent us overseas with courtesy, and body language which his hosts might have seen as discourteous in a formal setting would certainly not be something I would want to see. Aren’t we supposed to be pleased that we don’t have Mr Abbott out there, making a goose of himself?

  38. Nicholas

    Or government spending can be increased for infrastructure and services in those regions. Spending on infrastructure and services in a certain part of the country affects that part of the country more than it affects places where that spending isn’t being done. You understand that but you love to play the role of obtuse smartarse.

    No, I thought you were talking about doing things a different way to the way they’re done at present. As all governments of every stamp use infrastructure spending to help regional economies (‘school halls’ being one of the most obvious), I’m not sure why stating the obvious has any point.

  41. pedant

    True, but do the Americans really expect the heads of other countries to pledge allegiance to their flag? The hand over the heart signifies that that’s where one’s allegiance is, surely?

  42. pedant@137

    I see Mr Turnbull was getting a bit of stick here earlier for the manner in which he saluted with his hand on his heart, American style.

    A bit unfair, I thought. It reminded me of similar stick that people tried to apply to Mr Keating when he addressed President Suharto as “Bapak” (“Father”). In that case, he was simply using a polite form of address used to men in Indonesia over a certain age, no doubt on the advice of the Australian Embassy. I would guess Mr Turnbull may well have been advised on how the Americans salute.

    We can probably all agree in expecting Mr Turnbull to represent us overseas with courtesy, and body language which his hosts might have seen as discourteous in a formal setting would certainly not be something I would want to see. Aren’t we supposed to be pleased that we don’t have Mr Abbott out there, making a goose of himself?

    OK, then explain why the Australian officials on either side of Turnbull stood with their hands by their sides?

  44. Edwina St. John #135

    You’ve had a lot of mysteries in your life Poroti, I am sure.

    Oh, but what’s life without a little bit of Mystery? 😀

  48. Strong UnionsStrongCountry @ 58

    “Gotta look after them corporate Party owners…..government money ok for miners but not car manufacturing”

    Whats your take on Alcoa ? Should the Vic Govt subsidise the states biggest polluter and a Company that removed workers on the MV Portland by force. I wouldnt but interested in your opinion.

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