Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  6. Well no big surprise from the polling.

    In predictions we were all saying that the polls would not move much.

    I made the mistake of applying to the 2PP and not to primary and personal satisfaction.

    Its hard to remember that for most politics really is the 30 second grab on the evening news and maybe the headline masthead at the newsagents.

    This all changes come election time. What the polls do not tell us is how solid those numbers are for the LNP and how much this may change before election day.

    However if it has gone back to business as normal for politics we will follow the UK in going to the right and the rise in inequality and the resulting social divisions that will occur as a result.

    Today I am less optimistic of Labor winning the next election. However I still say Labor is in with a chance. The election campaign is going to be vital for Labor and if the polling is still in this territory after the budget I think Labor should consider a new leader. However I stress for the likes of Rex Douglas and his ilk that until after the budget this should not enter Labor heads so is not a free kick to some Shorten bashing.

  7. [The trade union royal commission’s recommendations would place a greater burden on union officials than on company directors, despite the government’s insistence that legislation will bring them into line, a legal expert has said.

    The government is considering the 79 recommendations of the commission’s final report, which was issued late last month.

    …McCallum acknowledged that directors could not use their company’s money to pay a fine but said disqualifying trade union officials from holding office was more of a problem.

    Unions vow to fight after PM says industrial relations high on election agenda
    Read more
    The royal commissioner, Dyson Heydon, recommended that officials who breached the Fair Work Act be liable for disqualification. This held them to a civil standard of proof rather than the higher criminal standard that company directors faced, McCallum said.

    Heydon also proposed that the government consider drafting legislation specific to officials in the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy union to ban individuals it saw as “unfit” to hold office.

    McCallum said similar measures to ban dodgy company directors through legislation was “highly unlikely”.

    “The government wouldn’t say that the banking industry is riddled with problems, or that financial advisers {who have done the wrong thing} are the tip of the iceberg,” McCallum said, using language that Heydon used when describing union corruption.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/11/royal-commission-changes-an-unfair-burden-on-unions-warns-academic

  8. Lizzie

    Its the whole IR thing that gives me hope for a one term LNP government.

    These polling numbers today may see the LNP think they are at last selling their toxic message on workers rights. I of course have confidence this will unravel big time at election time.

  10. mpesce: only need to go back and listen to ‘Heroes’ to learn how Bowie invented about 90% of the music we listen to now.

  11. The electorate doesn’t care all that much about Briggs et al. They won’t blame Malcolm for that. But they will when he does ScoMos bidding and takes it easy on the rich, cans gonski, delivers a crap NBN etc etc. That is all to come

  12. guytaur

    “Its the whole IR thing” that makes me worry that they will last for two terms, because unless the Senate hangs tough, we are going to see a lowering of standards right across the board and there’s no doubt we shall be ‘Americanised’.

  13. lizzie

    I have no doubts about the union campaign and the Labor campaign and the Greens campaign putting spine in cross bench Senators.

    In fact it is on IR that we will be so glad that Ricky Muir got in.

  14. guytaur@63

    lizzie

    I have no doubts about the union campaign and the Labor campaign and the Greens campaign putting spine in cross bench Senators.

    In fact it is on IR that we will be so glad that Ricky Muir got in.

    Because it opens the way for a Greens sell-out?

  22. David Bowie dies aged 69 after 18-month cancer battle: reports
    Updated 20 minutes ago

    David Bowie
    PHOTO: David Bowie has died, aged 69. (Michael Loccisano/Tribeca Film Festival, file photo: Getty Images)
    MAP: England
    Rock legend David Bowie has died at the age of 69 after an 18-month-long battle with cancer, according to his son and to his official Facebook page.

    “While many of you will share in this loss, we ask that you respect the family’s privacy during their time of grief,” a statement posted to his official social media page said.

    His son Duncan Jones tweeted: “Very sorry and sad to say it’s true. I’ll be offline for a while. Love to all.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-11/david-bowie-dies-after-cancer-battle-aged-69/7081962

  24. booleanbach from previous thread

    [Have decided not to read Huffington Post from now on. No matter what link I click on it takes me to the Huff Post AU site even though i do NOT want to read the AU news but the US news.
    Pissed off entirely.]
    It’s only 2 extra clicks to read any available non-Aus edition.

    On the far left right above ‘Front Page’ there is a drop-down menu where you can select the U.S. edition.

  28. lizzie@75

    mikehilliard

    Always knew Robb wasn’t up to it. We’re being let down on every side.

    You and I feeling that is one thing, but now there is authoritative evidence from an independent source. That should carry much more weight.

  29. Markfergusonuk: Bowie’s last album released last week.

    Lead single “Lazarus”

    Opening line “Look up here, I’m in heaven”

    Now that’s going out in style

  30. lizzie@77

    Rex D reminds me of those professional mourners of early centuries who were hired to moan and droop sadly behind coffins.

    Could be. 😀

    I sometimes picture him as ‘waiting for the call’ if Shorten ever steps down. 👿

  32. lizzie

    [Always knew Robb wasn’t up to it.]

    Yeah, Robb and the rest of them.

    I always think the more a government praises it’s own achievement, such as the TPP, the more you can bet it’s a stinker.

  33. The Greens “selling out unions” – what a laugh.

    For one thing, it was the Greens who consistently called for the abolition of the ABCC.

    Labor sold out the Your Rights At Work campaign by not abolishing the ABCC in its first term of office and continuing the bipartisan rhetoric of “a tough cop on the beat”.

    It was a complete myth that Labor gave WorkChoices legislation the flick.

    24/11/2010: http://www.smh.com.au//breaking-news-national/abolish-abcc-say-unions-and-greens-20101124-1864r.html
    [The national construction industry watchdog’s failure to prosecute an Adelaide rigger for refusing to talk has prompted renewed calls for its abolition.

    In a landmark case that tested Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) laws, Adelaide Magistrate David Whittle on Wednesday cleared Ark Tribe of failing to attend a meeting in October 2008.

    He found the notice against Mr Tribe was invalid, to cheers from workers in the small packed courtroom.

    The then ABCC Commissioner John Lloyd had not personally sought to exercise his coercive powers as required, and his deputy had used them without proper delegation, the magistrate said.

    Mr Whittle’s decision was welcomed by a jubilant Mr Tribe, unionists, the Greens, lawyers and even current ABCC commissioner Leigh Johns, who says it provides “further clarification” of his powers and functions.

    “Prime Minister (Julia) Gillard must now adopt Labor’s policy pledge to scrap the ABCC.”

    The Australian Greens called for the axing of the ABCC and for building and construction workers to be treated equally.]

  35. Richard Di Natale ‏@RichardDiNatale 1m1 minute ago
    So sad to hear of David Bowie’s death. Such an enormous influence to millions, to whole generations. Vale #DavidBowie. An absolute legend.

    Bill Shorten ‏@billshortenmp 2m2 minutes ago
    An icon of the music world has left us. A genius gone but never forgotten

  36. C’mon bludgers of the progressive variety, get a grip and remember the Q’l’d election. Labor and the unions certainly won there. Ditto Victoria.

    Liked Pedant’s post previous page and still think it’s too early to predict defeat.

    The bears rampaging around the stock markets are certainly not going to help Turnbull and Morrison, which probably poses the greatest risk for the hope for a progressive gov’t if Turnbull chooses to go early.

  37. I remember the pressure that was placed on Gillard to hold an election to “legitimise” her PMship. Everyone’s gone all soft and mushy over Turnbull

  39. zoidlord

    Posted Monday, January 11, 2016 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    [Didn’t David Bowie just released a new album ?]

    Listening to an interview on ABC apparently Bowie has been working hard to release before he died. There is a second album to be released.

  42. mikehilliard @ 92: Reminds me of the time when Tim Fischer was asked what was his favourite band. His response was “Silverchair”. “Name on of their songs”, said the journalist; leaving Mr Fischer stranded like a whale.

  43. I visited a reasonably nearby chemist to fill a script today. The pharmacist came out and shook hands with me and had as bit of a chat. I took the opportunity to congratulate him on not carrying any homeopathic goods. He made a disparaging comment about them and I asked him if he was concerned about people overdosing on them. This caused some hilarity with the staff and even more so when I followed up by saying that going by homeopathic logic taking less would represent an overdose.
    A very satisfying encounter.

  44. Paris attacks and honeymoon should wear off by late feb in my opinion. That will give us a true picture. I’m expecting 52-48 to coal in aggregate

  45. I’m freaking heartbroken. 🙁

    I saw David Bowie live at Randwick Racecourse on his ‘Serious Moonlight’ tour. I had been waiting for a very long time to see him live and I was absolutely gobsmacked at the sheer brilliance of the show. I have also kept on listening to his music and will continue to do so for the rest of my life.

  46. Innovation and agility..remember these words when discussing Turnbull

    [Average global net connection speed up 14% – Australia ranks 46th
    According to the latest Akamai State of the Internet Report, Australia currently ranks in the bottom third of qualifying countries globally]

  48. So, we get almost nothing out of the TPP except the privilege of having foreign multinational over-rule domestic legislation. I really don’t think Labor should wave this through.

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