Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Huge gains in Victoria have provided the main impetus for the Coalition’s poll revival under Malcolm Turnbull, according to the latest Newspoll state breakdowns.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, which combine results of polling conducted from October through December and breaks the results down by state, with gender and age cohort breakdowns presumably to follow shortly. The timing of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership coup in late September means comparison of the previous result with the current provides a neat measure of his impact, which appears to have been particularly big in Victoria and Western Australia. Both states record eight-point shifts on two-party preferred, giving the Coalition respective leads of 51-49 and 54-46. There have also been shifts of four points in New South Wales and five points in Queensland, respectively producing Coalition leads of 53-47 and 52-48. Only in South Australia is Labor still credited with the lead, which is down from 54-46 to 52-48. Two-party tables here, primary votes here and leaders ratings here (with thanks to Leroy Lynch).

UPDATE (29/12): And now the second tranche of the results, featuring breakdowns by gender and age cohort. The results suggest Malcolm Turnbull has had less effect on the gender gap than you might have figured, and that the change had less impact on younger respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,470 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. alias

    …which would involve Labor being without a leader for at least a month, no matter how gracefully Shorten departs. And – given the divisive nature of these contests – mean a fragmented party at the start of an election year.

    But we’ve already had this conversation, so I’ll end it there.

  5. The problem seems deeper than Shorten being leader at present. I suspect the same job will be done on whoever takes that role. The media seem to have collectively decided that whoever leads Labor can be treated like how Gillard was and get away with it. No one called them out for it. In fact their mojo was rewarded at the ballot box. Something is fundamentally broken in the system whereby ideas and policies are freely derided without reference to factual reality if they don’t fit some agenda that is not ever fully revealed.

  6. Gary

    [I’m wondering why some people are so intent on burning two Labor leaders so quickly, which is what would happen if you change leader now.]

    Just like when Shorten replaced Rudd with Julia and then put him back again then he got rid of Julia you mean.?

  7. Zoom@100,

    Alias knows very well that Labor changing leaders at this juncture would, first and foremost, ensure a Turnbull victory at the next Federal election.

    Why Alias comes to an obscure political blog to push this? I think it is part of a grass-roots Liberal party strategy to push Labor into a foolish political decision. If you look at the people who are publicly baying for Shorten’s blook, they are Ray Hadley and other RWNJs, and also notably PvO. Turnbull is his idol, and so he would not be calling for anything that would hurt Turnbull.

    For those of you who visit other blogs, are their posters like Alias insisting monotonously that for the good of the “Country” Shorten must go NOW, with not a moment to lose?

  9. Quail eggs laced with chilli sauce for breakfast. Good way to start the day.

    BK: Interesting link, however I think I might flee. We have politics here, just flirted with questions of sex/gender .. and now a religion/sex cocktail.

    Am heading for the Cineplex as the kids want to watch some chipmunks movie.

  10. Douglas and Milko,

    That’s quite wrong. You can’t have read many of my posts to have formed the views you express. Ensure a Turnbull victory? Just ask yourself: whom does Turnbull really want as Opposition leader?

    Yes you got it right.

  12. [Just like when Shorten replaced Rudd with Julia and then put him back again then he got rid of Julia you mean.?]
    Absolutely. So I guess you’re against getting rid of Shorten now too?

  13. [Ensure a Turnbull victory? Just ask yourself: whom does Turnbull really want as Opposition leader?]
    At the moment anyone from Labor and in particular a new person to show that Labor can’t hold it together.

  14. MTBW

    [Just like when Shorten replaced Rudd with Julia and then put him back again then he got rid of Julia you mean.?]

    You mean Shorten did it all on his own on two occasions? You’ve really bought the myth, haven’t you.

  16. Please keep Mr 14% as leader.

    I think the sanest thing you’ve ever said.

    I say to my liberal friends, when they respond to the call to say ‘shorten has to go’ Why, is he so much of a threat?

  17. alias..

    “No great harm done if Shorten steps down (that’s the crucial part; he has to go voluntarily) and is replaced by a figure around whom the party can unite with an election looming.”

    ..err, the party IS united. I’m unaware of any disunity ..media back-grounding ..undermining, etc. I’m a member of the party, and have not heard any rumblings of dissatisfaction or dis-content with our leader’s performance..

    ..alias, it’s clear from your constant whining and moaning that you don’t like Bill Shorten. Fair enough, that’s your prerogative ..but can you please accept that many PBers don’t share your view, and are contemptuous of your often pathetic ..nay, desperate attempts to justify your pathological obsession..

  19. confessions@31

    He just imagined how easy it was going to be to romp into the Lodge in 2016.


    After Rudd and his henchmen wrecked a Labor govt and the recriminations that inevitably followed, Shorten did a fantastic job in uniting the caucus after such a destructive period. I wouldn’t call this basking.

    Oh dear… I thought it was Gillard and her myrmidons who struck down a successful PM and started all the chaos that brought us Abbott.

  20. [Gary

    By your actions you will be judged and Shorten is being judged.]
    Eye for an eye eh? That’s what is wrong with this world at the moment.

  21. Labor supporters love affair with Shorten will last until he is rolled, then they will jump in bed with the new leader. About as loyal as the Finnish during WW2 this lot.

  23. Gee Turnbull conspired for months to oust Abbott. He plotted within months of Abbott becoming PM. by his actions, will he be judged?

  24. [The problem seems deeper than Shorten being leader at present. I suspect the same job will be done on whoever takes that role. ]

    Yes, I well remember how many here said that Rudd just HAd to be put back into the PM job because “Look at the polls!”

    Those great polls lasted for about 3 weeks… or was it 2? Rudd’s popularity with the public – remember the adoring crowds, the chants, the “rock star” welcomes wherever he went? – lasted a few weeks longer.

    Whether he did better than Gillard would or would not have done, Rudd received a drubbing at the 2013 election. So much for polls and beauty contests. And Rudd had an election to fight. He was up against it.

    Turnbull hasn’t had to do anything but sound enthusiastic. He’s still not doing anything. But look at the polls!

    I suggestagain that Bill Shorten will not lose an election based on a car crash or using his mobile while behind the wheel. It’s already been forgotten. That is just the sort of fake disaster that trolls like TBA and concern trolls like Alias think will be Shorten’s downfall. Elections are more serious than that. And if the public is having to decide between the downside of using a phone in a car and the threat of penalty rates, or a 50% increase in the rate of GST, I think using a mobile in a car will come up trumps.

    To think otherwise is to suggest that despite robbing the public of entitlements, taxing them higher (without addressing the real tax dodgers), taking away penalty rates, cutting HECS funding off at the knees, they will vote for the man who wasn’t caught using his phone in his car (because the other bloke was)… is utterly ridiculous.

    To think that Shorten’s involvement in the downfalls of Rudd and/or Gillard will serve him badly, while Turnbull will be praised to high heaven for his knifing of Abbott, is equally fatuous.

    Homilies about how badly Shorten is doing in his home state, now that the weirdo from Warringah is out of the way, don’t deal with the reality that the present incumbent PM is a toff from Point Piper. Same harbour, different shore.

    Victorians had good reason to hate Abbott: he closed down their main manufacturing industry, motor vehicles, on an ideological whim, leaving it for Hockey and Truss to turn the knife while he was off at Mandela’s funeral. Turnbull, by contrast, must seem like the Second Coming compared to Abbott. It’s relief that Victorians feel, not disdain. They’ll get over it when they realize that there aren’t enough smartarsed quips in Turnbull’s inventory to being back GMH. Or make the NBN work. Or justify an extra 50% on top of the GST.

    Compared to this a cartoon showing Shorten in a car on the phone will be small potatoes. It already is small potatoes. The publix is dumb, and spoilt, lazy and trivial, but they’re not that dumb, spoilt, lazy and trivial that they’ll vote for a chimera over substance when the time comes.

  27. victoria:

    Not just Turnbull, but Morrison and possibly JBishop as well.

    I think both you and I said back in the day that if what Rudd was doing to Gillard’s govt happened in a Liberal govt there’d be little to no fuss made about it in the media. And so it is with the media now calling for Abbott to go and calling his behaviour for what it is: whiteanting.

  29. mtbw

    if you think Shorten did bad. What do you make of what Turnbull did. He actually got the prize of being PM. After months and months of behind the scene deals with Brough, Pyne, Morrison, JBishop etc etc

  30. Fess

    Yep. Abbott is whiteanting and he should go for the good of the country. Rudd did the same and it was encouraged and supported to no end. Bunch of disgusting lowlifes the lot of them!

  33. [Schadenfreude George
    Schadenfreude George – ‏@GeorgeBludger

    20 minute wait to get into the cafe Saturday, yesterday & today – place packed, line out the door… Damn you high wages & #penaltyrates !!!
    4:42 PM – 27 Dec 2015
    2 RETWEETS3 LIKES]

  34. MTBW

    [Just like when Shorten replaced Rudd with Julia and then put him back again then he got rid of Julia you mean.?]

    Shorten was not acting as a lone wolf – and in both instances, he was not an instigator. He voted in the same way as the majority of Labor MPs.

  37. MTBW – Are you in favour of burning two Labor leaders quickly, which is what would happen if you change leader now, like happened with Rudd and Gillard?

  40. MTBW

    If you are well aware of what went on, why do you keep repeating the same old rubbish?

    As for it playing out on television, it’s touching that you place so much faith in the medium…particularly given that the media was blindsided by events on both occasions.

  43. Alias@109,

    You are very positive about Turnbull – 2433, 2691 , 2699, which is fine. I think we are all glad to see the back of Abbott, and the lowering in tone of the dangerous nationalism he espoused.

    However, you seem to believe that Turnbull can actually deflect the IPA agenda, and that magically he can coax the RWNJs who brought us Abbott into supporting a centrist agenda. Once Turnbull wins another election, it will be budget 2014 revisited, apart from some window dressing.

    The one thing that Labor has going for it at the moment is that they can point to the spectre of Turnbull being rolled on IR after the next election (not as PM, the Libs are not suicidal, and Turnbull is not the small-l liberal you think he is), and imposing Work Choices Mark II, with added destruction of Unions in Australia forever.

    If they change leaders, the liberals will just come back with “5 Labor Leaders in 3 years – you cannot vote for this rabble”. There is a reason that so much money was spend on TURC and the Killing Season. If Shorten was as ineffective as you say, the Abbott Government (and now Turnbull) would not be working so hard to get him.

    I will agree that many of your posts are thoughtful and espouse small liberal values, but you seem to be more a Turnbull liberal than any sort of Laborite, or even Green.

  46. mtbw

    Just keep posting mindless drivel of that Councillor you are so fond of. It is obviously mor important then what Turnbull is doing as PM

  48. [This may come as news to you but I don’t care what mess the Libs get themselves into.]

    They’re in government FFS! Not only are they getting themselves into a mess, but they are dragging the rest of the country down with them.

    And all you want to do is bang on about something that happened 5+ years ago! Jesus.

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