The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a correction after what was probably an Ipsos-driven overshoot last week, with a milder result from Newspoll drawing the Coalition two-party lead back 0.7%, and moving the seat projection two points in favour of Labor, with gains in New South Wales and Victoria. However, Newspoll’s leadership ratings have added further distance between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister, although Shorten’s own net approval rating comes in slightly higher than last week’s.
Preselection news:
• The ABC reports on friction within the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy axis of the Victorian Right over the preselection in the Melbourne seat of Wills, which is to be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Conroy is backing Mehmet Tillem, his former chief-of-staff and briefly a Senator, who now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalidakis. However, Shorten is pushing for the seat to go to a woman, perhaps motivated by concern about the rising strength of the Greens. The Greens outpolled the Liberals to finish second at the 2013 election, but would need a 15.2% swing againt Labor to win the seat. A meeting of Labor’s administrative committee tonight will determine when the vote is to be held, with the ABC reporting that the Conroy forces favour an earlier-than-expected vote before Christmas. The ABC further reports that Moreland councillor and former mayor Meaghan Hopper is a confirmed starter, along with the previously reported Joshua Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor.
• Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry retained first and second position on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket in a preselection vote held on Saturday. The difficult but winnable third position goes to Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman. Blair Richards of The Mercury reports that Sally Chandler, who narrowly failed to win a seat from number three in 2013, declined to accept the unwinnable fourth position, amid complaints that the Tasmanian Liberals have not had a woman in federal parliament in 20 years.
• A leading Labor preselection candidate for the seat of Robertson, Anne Charlton, has revealed to preselectors that she was addicted to heroin and “in trouble with the law” at the age of 16. Charlton is now chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and has since found a place in the Senate. Labor’s preselection field will also include Belinda Neal, the seat’s controversial member from 2007 to 2010, when she was defeated for preselection by O’Neill.
It’s interesting how important it appears Brough is to Turnbull. You’d understand it if he was in the position Gillard was in, where she couldn’t afford to lose any seats. But when he won the leadership convincingly, and has a huge lead in the HoR, it’s inexplicable.
Another sign that things are a lot more shaky internally for the Libs than they appear?
Yep, while Turnbull was out making money for himself and di Natale was making big bucks as a GP, Shorten was working to improve the lives of ordinary working people.
The bastard.
Brough has always seemed shonky and untrustworthy to me, ever since the Howard days. I certainly think he should step down from the ministry pending investigation
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/17/federal-police-search-home-for-documents-belonging-to-james-ashby
LoL! this is good for a laugh. 🙂
[ In media interviews after being sworn in to Malcolm Turnbull’s ministry in September 2015, Brough defended his conduct, saying the claims about the diary were a “misunderstanding”. ]
Umm……Actually Mal you rather seem to have cleared up any misunderstanding on this matter, very directly, in September 2014 when you did the 60 minutes interview. 🙂
People like Pyne and Roy must be enormously annoyed at this. Ans now, with Palmer weighing in under privilege with confirmation that Brough asked for $200k to fund Ashby’s legals?? I reckon that could be used since its not something that Brough said under privilege so i’d think he has no protection on that?
TPOF
Sorry but you are a little naive – not that I think Israel is actually the centre of the current mess, just a player.
Israel’s goals:
1. Weaken syria to gain decided and final acess to the Golan heights. Not only ios there strategic advantage but also i understand they have found OIL/GAS
2. Oppose Iran and the Shi-ite connection. Although they hate Sunni Palestinians thay are much, much more scared of Hezbollah and Iran – the Shi-ite connection. Isis opposes the Shia
3. Weaken a neighbour – always a strategic plus – possibly allowing more Palestinians to be pushed into Syria, opening up more space on the West Bank
4. Probably gain access to Saudi/Quatari oil/gas from the pipeline proposed through a Sunni friendly (ie not Assad) Syria.
5. Help its strategic ally and main aid donor the USA against their “enemy” Russia
So here are five good reasons why Israle would have stategic interest in causing chaos in Syria and overthowing Assad. It does not matter who is right and wrong or nasty and nice – these 5 rasons would stack up exactly the same if all the leaders changed and everyone was a democratically elected nice guy.
Turkey’s goals
1. Weaken Syria to seize disputed land (including the area where the plane went down)
2. Oppose Iran and the Shi-ite connection.
3. Get ISIS assistance against the much feared Syrian/iraqi Kurds, threatening rebellion by their interal Turkish Kurds
4. Lessen chance of creating an independent Kurdistan
5. Weaken a neighbour – always a strategic plus –
6. Weaken a second neighbour – Russia, a long standing thousand year old conflict
7. Probably gain access to Saudi/Quatari oil/gas from the pipeline proposed through a Sunni friendly (ie not Assad) Syria. This reduced their current 66% depemdence on Russia.
8. Help its strategic ally and main aid donor the USA against their “enemy” Russia
9. Help in its long standing bid to join the EU
10. Make a motza load of $ from the smuggled Syrian oil delivered by ISIS. Apparently Erdogan and family are main beficiaries (shades of Suharto and Indonesia)
11. Keep many fundamentalist Sunnis at home happy ie play to Erdogan’s own electoral base
So here are 11 good reasons why Turkey would have stategic interest in causing chaos in Syria and overthowing Assad and supporting a Sunni state. Once again often they have little to do with ideology or even personality.
Nicholas
The finance sector is heavily regulated, I can’t think of an that is more regulated, and the legal system’s regulations are self evident, if you don’t know your law you wont win many cases thus will be seen as hopeless.
C@tmomma
Turnbull made what I saw as a strange comment at Drawfrus, referring to a quote from Wran about if you have a good lawyer you can avoid jail.
Was Turnbull suggesting that someone should be in jail, but who.
an = one
dave
Yep, shit happens all the time. 😀
Nicholas @ 638,
‘ This is a great paragraph by Guy Rundle….’
And explains why Greens’ polling has gone backwards since Cool Hand Dick took over The Greens’ leadership and now hovers around 9-10%? 😀
Honestly, Greens’ fanboi, Guy Rundle, is just doing his darndest to try and forestall even more voters going from The Greens to the Liberals! He hasn’t been all that successful thus far but good on him for continuing to try.
[Vic, He may be injured or worse.
But shit happens.]
Noooooooo! They would make statues of him and name topographic features after him.
The Gulf of Abbott….Tony’s Hole.
Ahhhhh
TPOF
[but it is not in Israel’s interest to encourage strife it if creates instability in locations where there is stability]
Oh yes it is. The previously stable Syria and Iraq were countries that could pose a real challenge to Israel. Not any more . Both countries reduced to a shambles full of internal warring. See also Libya.
Zoomster @ 652, very nicely put! It’s pretty easy to have the money in the bank and suddenly find a conscience.
Being a union person isn’t the only way you can help others.
Having a conscience has nothing to do with it, Shorten wanted a career in politics and knew that in order to become an ALP MP, he needed to be involved in the union movement.
At least he did his job unlike some of the cretins at the HSU
First it was the 50% renewables “not a promise just an aspiration”.
Now they think people will believe a +40% cut in emissions.
Clearly the ALP is more scared of bleeding votes to the Greens than trying to win the Centre and Government.
Far be it for me to argue against them – Never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake.
imacca,
I don’t think James Ashby is the sharpest tool in his hed out back of his parent’s strawberry farm in Beerwah down the road from Wyatt Roy’s parent’s strawberry farm. I had to chortle when he said in his interview in defense of Clive Palmer’s assertions in parliament that Brough asked for 200 large, wtte: ‘Well as my legal bills were way more than that it couldn’t have been true!’ O….K…. Has James never heard of the political whip-around? $200K here from one major political benefactor, another $200K there, till it adds up.
Actually, James has helped jog my memory to do with another ‘unknown unknown’ that bedevilled my thoughts at the time. That being that James Ashby never seemed to show that he had a care or concern in the world for how his self-evidently expensive legal bills were going to be paid for. Even after Justice Rares found against him! Now for a guy who lives in a shed on his parent’s farm that seems a bit strange, to say the least. Even after the court cases were finalised all those sort of matters just seemed to dematerialise. James just put his chopper chauffeur hat on got on with happily flying his helicopter for Pauline.
Which begs the question, who were the other Queensland benefactors who chipped in when Clive declined? And is this the reason Malcolm has to keep the Queensland crew sweet? As, if this house of cards falls down, so will Turnbull’s government, a la how his time as Opposition Leader came to a crashing halt wrt matters relating to Utegate and Godwin Grech?
The Liberals love to think they can weave a tangled web that will tie people up in knots that can’t be untangled. However, like a jumper, just one loose thread and it can all come spectacularly undone!
[Compact Crank
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 4:27 pm | Permalink
First it was the 50% renewables “not a promise just an aspiration”.
Now they think people will believe a +40% cut in emissions.
Clearly the ALP is more scared of bleeding votes to the Greens than trying to win the Centre and Government.
Far be it for me to argue against them – Never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake.
]
…. anyone got their $ 500 back yet ?????
651
Good point. It does make Brough look like he is senior in an important faction.
catmomma @626
People aren’t stupid.
Obama is weak as water. There is no strategy in place to win.
The voters don’t know what Victory looks like.
Why would you commit troops i9f you don’t know what victory looks like or why we are fighting.
We didn’t commit troops to Stop Pol Pot or many other Genocidal maniacs because our National Interest wasn’t at stake.
If the question was asked would you be willing to commit Australian ground Troops to destroy ISIS and support the installation of Kurdish Government in Kurdish Areas and other similar Ethnically Orientated Governments in relevant areas, a new Syrian Government that may be lead by Assad or his successors – it might change the result significantly.
mexicanbeemer @ 656,
‘ Turnbull made what I saw as a strange comment at Drawfrus, referring to a quote from Wran about if you have a good lawyer you can avoid jail.
Was Turnbull suggesting that someone should be in jail, but who.’
That is an unknown known. 🙂
phoenix – may gas and electricity bills both reduced considerably – that happened across WA – so it is most likely I did get the total $500 back because of the indirect impacts that I can’t measure.
You only have to re-gas a few aircons and fridges and you’d be well on your way.
Compact Crank,
I love that you have a black and white avatar, it says all we need to know, however this war is not so black and white:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/guess-who-is-behind-the-islamic-state-israeli-colonel-caught-with-is-pants-down/5491582
Our boots on the ground will not know who to salute. Or who they are fighting against.
dtt @ 655
I got this far into your post:
[Sorry but you are a little naive]
and decided it must be total crap. If you can’t argue the case without making ignorant assumptions about my state of knowledge, nothing you say is worth reading.
CC@670
You must live in a different WA to me!
By the time Barnett upted electricity by over 60% and then added above inflation level increases in the last couple of budgets while your electricity bill may have gone down – for any number of reasons – I would lay odds your experience puts you very much in a small minority.
Along with Whyalla being swept away (Abbott), $100 roasts (Barnaby) and the $550 cheaper electricity (Abbott again)
these were all part of the same set of LNP lies/half-truths and propaganda set up for the last election.
That you are willing to swallow this is amazing and that you expect anyone else to believe it is even more surprising – especially those of us who can call you on this crap in WA.
A very thoughtful article on Bill Shorten and Labor by Nick Dyrenfurth:
https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/nick-dyrenfurth/2015/27/2015/1448582891/back-people?utm_source=Today&utm_campaign=45a015a87f-Today_27_November_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_673b6b002d-45a015a87f-302936173
poroti @ 661
[The previously stable Syria and Iraq were countries that could pose a real challenge to Israel. Not any more .]
As I recall, Israel was not all that keen on the Iraqi intervention, although not being a frontline state of Israel’s was of less concern to it. It was also keeping Iran occupied. As for Syria, Israel has largely coexisted with Syria since the 1967 war, despite the actions of Hezbollah. Syria is a frontline state. The fact that once the dust clears anything could be happening in Syria is a complication it does not need.
Of course, there are a whole lot of geostrategic considerations for Israel favouring one side or the other across the various conflicts – but these considerations cut both ways in every situation. Upsetting the status quo for Israel is of no benefit to it because what is going on is disrupting Israeli links/assets/spy networks that have been established.
TPOF
What a pecious petal you are. You made a very naive statement and then because you iccle feelings are hurt, you cannot read any substance which might upset your naive views.
That my friend is just denial. i have been called much, much worse than naive here and still read the posts.
Have a little intellectual cred my friend. We are talking abut potenial WWIII at worst (nuclear even) and at best the death of thousands, and you a precious petal cannot copp being called naive. Wowsers!!
[Tricot
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 4:55 pm | Permalink
CC@670
You must live in a different WA to me!
By the time Barnett upted electricity by over 60% and then added above inflation level increases in the last couple of budgets while your electricity bill may have gone down – for any number of reasons – I would lay odds your experience puts you very much in a small minority.
Along with Whyalla being swept away (Abbott), $100 roasts (Barnaby) and the $550 cheaper electricity (Abbott again)
these were all part of the same set of LNP lies/half-truths and propaganda set up for the last election.
That you are willing to swallow this is amazing and that you expect anyone else to believe it is even more surprising – especially those of us who can call you on this crap in WA.
]
Geez Tricot …. I was just about to hit on you and Piroti for a loan seeing you WA’s, according to Crank, are rolling in dough – our electricity provider in Victoria pocketed my $550 ….then charged me interest on it on my electricity bills …..
[What a pecious petal you are]
And there you go again!
c@tmomma, 665
[And explains why Greens’ polling has gone backwards since Cool Hand Dick took over The Greens’ leadership and now hovers around 9-10%? ]
This isn’t true – the Greens’ polling has continued to rise since after Di Natale was elected until Turnbull’s ascension, and hit a peak of 14.5% on the PB aggregate, iirc (13% on Phantom Trend and 14.6% on Mark the Ballot). The graphs in the sidebar show higher peak polling results (as well as, I’d guess, average) for Di Natale from May 2015 onwards compared to Milne’s performance during 2012 to 2015. Even currently, the PB aggregate has the Greens on 11.9%, Catsaras on 12.4% and Phantom Trend on 12%. I don’t know where you’re getting your numbers from.
[Have a little intellectual cred my friend.]
And that is arrogance of Ruddian proportions.
TPOF
What a precious petal you are.
Grow up!
TPOF
[As I recall, Israel was not all that keen on the Iraqi intervention,]
Jeepers. You are not naive you are a puppet or a d;leiberate propagandist for Israel. Israel was pulling ALL the strings behind the Iraqi invasion, through their proxies the Neocons who often held dual citizenship. Iraq being an Arab state was an existential threat to Israel, much more than Iran. The other trheat was egyspt but the USA had largely contained that threat, by matching arms for arms with Israel. Iran did not much care about Israel although they had an interest in Hezbollah. Iraq also had Baathist links to Syria, an old israeli foe.
[And that is arrogance of Ruddian proportions.]
Geez you are up yourself!
dtt
Looks like you are about to blow a gasket. Still you wheel out conspiracy theories up with the best of them. Life is pretty easy when you characterise Israel as a monochrome Great Satan and that anything that goes wrong in the world is then the scheming of the Great Satan.
Or should I call it the State of Macavity.
TPOF
If you make stupid or naive satements expect to be called out on them. Whe I make premature or ill-thought out statements I accept i am wrong or make a case why I am rights. I do not say that people are being blue meanies. But hey that is exactly what the gillaristas said “Mr Wudd was mean to me – he got vewy, angwy” so I got a knife and whacked him. Yummy.
PS you raised Rudd not me!
FOCUS, FOCUS, FOCUS ….. we need to get rid of Malcolm & Co ….not each other …
[Geez you are up yourself!]
Really. Can’t say a bad word about the Great Traitor, can we?
[Obama is weak as water.]
Its easy to bash Obama. His job approval rating by reputable pollsters like ABC/Washington Post and NBC have him either even or slightly negative. Historically thats OK for a second termer.
To give that figure true perspective you have to consider how whingey people are. Currently, the net approval of Congress is -64.
dtt
[If you make stupid or naive satements expect to be called out on them]
But if you make stupid or naive statements then that’s OK. Some of things you have said in response to me border on the bizarre – unless you are one of the believers in the great Israeli Satan.
[Andrew Laird @ReclaimAnglesea · 57s57 seconds ago
Massive crowd building at the State Library in Melbourne for the 1st in a series of #peoplesclimate marches! #COP21 pic.twitter.com/9pzLbscr9n
]
phoenix@686
How does ANY comment on PB assist in that noble aim?
[NAIROBI, Nov 26 – Pope Francis on Thursday warned of a “catastrophic” outcome if vested interests blocked an agreement to tackle climate change at the UN talks opening in Paris next week.
“In a few days, an important meeting on climate change will be held in Paris… It would be sad, and I dare say even catastrophic, were particular interests to prevail over the common good and lead to manipulating information in order to protect their own plans and projects,” he said ahead of the summit which officially starts on Monday.
“We are confronted with a choice which cannot be ignored: either to improve or to destroy the environment,” he said in a speech at the world headquarters of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in the Kenyan capital Nairobi.
Although he did not go into further detail, the pope has pointed the finger at big industry and blamed first-world countries for failing to act to curb global warming.]
http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2015/11/failure-of-paris-climate-summit-would-be-catastrophic-pope/
TPOF
Well you have nailed YOUR colours to the wall.
If you had actually read my post you would (if you have the intellectual capacity) have noticed that nothing I wrote was consiracy theory. Simply KNOWN strategic reality that anyone would understand if they plyed a came like Diplomacy or Civilization or even Monopoly.
It was simply a list opf the OBVIOUS strategic advantages for Israel in removing Assad and having a weak Syria. I did the same with Turkey. I guess I could repeat the exercise for the UK, France, Germany, Australia, and of course the US. Similarly I could do the same for Russia, China, Saudi, Quatar, Egypt and Jordan. Pakistan, India and even Indonesia probably have a bit on a hand also.
Now I think Israel is a rogue nation intent on genocidal extermination of the Palestinians, however on the Syrian matter I do not think they are the main player at all, but certainly will be looking to opportunistically sieze any advantage presented. But that is true of EVERY nation and many individual players.
TPOF
A traitor to you perhaps but not to me he did get rid of Howard and I thank him.
DTT
I’m more than happy to argue the situation. I’m not happy when someone who disagrees with me has an argument they know is so weak that they have to resort to describing me as naive and up myself.
All it says is that you cannot cope with with a view that is not the same as yours and you get personal, as if calling me naive, having my iccle (wtf is that!!!!) feelings hurt, being a precious petal, in denial, lacking intellectual cred, etc. And an apologist for Israel – which is saying that if you think there is anything ever positive to be said for Israel you are an apologist, because it is the centre of all evil and could not possibly ever do a moral or decent thing. And, of course, it assists or is behind whichever regime, group, sect, cult or whatever you think is in the wrong.
TPOF
Now ppppplllleeeezzze exactly what have I said today that is in the least bit bizarre. Please, please tell.
You have every right to disagree if you have evidence but Bizre – how so?
[A traitor to you perhaps but not to me he did get rid of Howard and I thank him.]
Stalin got rid of Hitler, but that did not make him a good guy.
lizzie
Pope Francis seems to me like a very alert and “modern” man.
Probably the best Pope we have had.
MTBW@694
All to do with the treacherous way he ran backwards into Gillard’s knife.
Extremely devious and treacherous!.. 😆
[How does ANY comment on PB assist in that noble aim?]
And should that be the aim? noble tho it may be.