BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition

A stable reading from Newspoll pares the Coalition back on the poll aggregate following a surge last week, although Malcolm Turnbull’s already stratospheric personal ratings have risen still higher.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a correction after what was probably an Ipsos-driven overshoot last week, with a milder result from Newspoll drawing the Coalition two-party lead back 0.7%, and moving the seat projection two points in favour of Labor, with gains in New South Wales and Victoria. However, Newspoll’s leadership ratings have added further distance between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister, although Shorten’s own net approval rating comes in slightly higher than last week’s.

Preselection news:

• The ABC reports on friction within the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy axis of the Victorian Right over the preselection in the Melbourne seat of Wills, which is to be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Conroy is backing Mehmet Tillem, his former chief-of-staff and briefly a Senator, who now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalidakis. However, Shorten is pushing for the seat to go to a woman, perhaps motivated by concern about the rising strength of the Greens. The Greens outpolled the Liberals to finish second at the 2013 election, but would need a 15.2% swing againt Labor to win the seat. A meeting of Labor’s administrative committee tonight will determine when the vote is to be held, with the ABC reporting that the Conroy forces favour an earlier-than-expected vote before Christmas. The ABC further reports that Moreland councillor and former mayor Meaghan Hopper is a confirmed starter, along with the previously reported Joshua Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor.

• Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry retained first and second position on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket in a preselection vote held on Saturday. The difficult but winnable third position goes to Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman. Blair Richards of The Mercury reports that Sally Chandler, who narrowly failed to win a seat from number three in 2013, declined to accept the unwinnable fourth position, amid complaints that the Tasmanian Liberals have not had a woman in federal parliament in 20 years.

• A leading Labor preselection candidate for the seat of Robertson, Anne Charlton, has revealed to preselectors that she was addicted to heroin and “in trouble with the law” at the age of 16. Charlton is now chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and has since found a place in the Senate. Labor’s preselection field will also include Belinda Neal, the seat’s controversial member from 2007 to 2010, when she was defeated for preselection by O’Neill.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Coalition”

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  1. I was at a meeting last night where all the candidates, and there were 3 of them, actually, spoke ahead of the December 12 Labor Pre-selection contest for the seat of Robertson.

    The 3rd candidate, over and above those already mentioned, was Dave Abrahams, ‘Digital Dave’, the voice of the Central Coast of NSW when it comes to anything Tech and NBN. He also has an impressive record when it comes to Regional Development and Youth Employment initiatives.

    Sussex Street are trying to knock him out though because he didn’t cross a ‘t’ or dot an ‘i’ on his application form. They also want a woman to contest the seat against the lacklustre local Liberal MP, Lucy Wicks. Darn 50% rule!
    I say, let the best man or woman win!

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Elizabeth Farrelly has much praise for Turnbull’s “intelligent engagement” with the electorate. But engagement on lousy, unfair policy won’t wash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-our-longestserving-pm-since-robert-menzies-20151125-gl7dy2.html
    John Warhust says “I told you so” with respect to Abbott’s behaviour after being turfed. He reckons Turnbull has his measure though.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/still-talking-about-tony-abbott-20151124-gl7a5y.html
    Michelle Grattan on the irony of Martin Parkinson’s return.
    https://theconversation.com/martin-parkinson-has-last-laugh-over-tony-abbott-and-peta-credlin-51260
    This sort of outcome is not going to stop is it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/leichhardt-council-vetoes-own-plan-for-refugee-hub-amid-antiislamic-protest-20151124-gl7adq.html
    The Verdict is in on “The Verdict”. Guilty. Guilty of inflicting crap upon the airwaves.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/the-verdict-finale-the-show-that-became-a-national-punchline-limps-to-the-finish-line-20151126-gl8860.html
    “I’m no racist” says the racist.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/face-of-reclaim-australia-rally-nathan-paterson-insists-im-not-racist-20151124-gl77iw.html
    The South Australian fires were really bad – fast moving and intense.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/25/south-australian-town-of-mallala-faces-out-of-control-bushfire
    These photos tell some of the story.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/photos-fnlmw1po-1227622938465
    Is Brough going to be a time bomb for Turnbull?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-makes-explosive-claims-against-mal-brough-over-james-ashby-affair-20151125-gl7qq7.html
    Gillian Triggs says that Australia is becoming internationally isolated on the matter of human rights.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/face-of-reclaim-australia-rally-nathan-paterson-insists-im-not-racist-20151124-gl77iw.html

  3. Section 2 . . . including Cartoon Corner

    In the end the facts will speak for themselves when it comes to the Fraudband debacle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leaked-nbn-budget-blowout-documents-threaten-to-embarrass-malcolm-turnbull-20151125-gl7fso.html
    “View from the Street” tells us that Greg Hunt has a problem with his emissions. He reckons Hunt and Dutton were kept on in their broken portfolios to be convenient scapegoats.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-greg-hunt-has-a-problem-with-his-emissions-20151125-gl7wob.html
    David Leyonhjelm continues to reinforce his reputation as the Senate’s resident nutter.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/25/david-leyonhjelm-uses-paris-attacks-to-further-a-dangerous-pro-gun-agenda
    The CA Royal Commission is closing the net around Pell and others. Yesterday’s appearances by one female victim and the school principal of the time will be pivotal.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/25/no-one-listened-to-hundreds-of-complaints-about-priest-says-principal
    Five reasons investors hate Woolworths.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/five-reasons-investors-are-angry-with-woolworths-20151125-gl7njy.html
    Don’t try this at home!
    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/nov/25/condom-challenge-teens-internet
    Ron Tandberg and our very own chicken hawks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html?selectedImage=1
    David Pope on domestic violence.

    Mark Knight is pretty much right with this one.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7a2dc83f6ea2d85732a9f65799c97f60?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe with a menacing drop-in for Thanksgiving.

  4. Jenny O’Connor (referred to in previous thread) used to be a regular on PB, leading the anti Hillary charge. She then went to Gilligan’s Island.

    I was only discussing the mayoral contest with one of the councillors last week — at which stage it looked like no one had the numbers.

    My conclusion then was that the only way through the impasse was for O’Connor to stand.

  5. c@tmomma: Labor’s affirmative action rules for pre-selection were always going to have a problematic impact unless and until the power of the factions is diminished. In an ideal world, we would see women taking the places of factional hacks. Instead, it is usually the more talented male candidates being squeezed out for women in the difficult marginal seats where the hacks don’t want to go.

    The cutting edge for improving gender balance ought to be the Senate. A good starting point would be a federal intervention to restore Lisa Singh to a winnable seat on the Tasmanian ticket and knock out the anonymous (I live here and I can’t even recall his name:John Something) AMWU hack who took her spot (and who probably won’t get elected anyway, whereas Lisa had a slight chance with her personal vote).

  6. Whoa there!

    BIG call..

    [Malcolm is different. His intelligence has light in it. I often disagree with him. We don’t see eye-to-eye on tax, I’m suspicious of the TPP, I believe the sale of Darwin’s port to the “private” company of Chinese government billionaire Ye Cheng was unwise and the approval of Adani’s coal mine shocking. There is no moral case for coal.

    And yet. And yet. Malcolm speaks to us not as a rabble of blithering chimps wanting their buttons pushed but as grownups, capable of considered argument, reasoned reflection and conscientious decision. For Australia, this is huge.

    So here’s my prediction. Malcolm – who like Beyonce is known universally by his first name – will be the longest-serving prime minister since Menzies. Possibly ever.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-our-longestserving-pm-since-robert-menzies-20151125-gl7dy2.html#ixzz3sXDDF8l5 ]

    I think “simpering” is a an appropriate word to describe the above.

  7. Numerous Labor PMs – Hawke, Keating, Rudd, Gillard – have spoken to the electorate as if they were grownups capable of considered argument. Apparently it’s only remarkable if Liberal PMs do it.

  8. Morning bludgers

    Thanks BK for today’s dawn patrol.

    It is easy to forget it is only November. Bushfire season is well and truly upon us.

  9. Nice point by Andrew Street

    [… the vaunted reduction has been achieved through accounting tricks, such as carrying over the emissions increases that we negotiated in 2012 but didn’t entirely use as though it’s some sort of carbon-credit, which makes exactly as much sense as if last week you predicted that today would be 52 degrees, and then when it was actually 36 you argued that taking your unused temperature credit into account it was therefore technically only 20 and so everyone should put a jumper on.
    …

    Oh, and the removal of the carbon tax has made coal seam gas mining more profitable (helped along by Hunt’s department making the environmental laws much less onerous), which releases greenhouse gases in the mining process, as well as when it’s used as a fuel – and that, conveniently, isn’t being taken into account by the current models.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-greg-hunt-has-a-problem-with-his-emissions-20151125-gl7wob.html

  10. Re Elizabeth Farrelly: she seems typical of some latte lefty types I’ve met who’ve fallen head over heels in love with Malcolm. As a centrist, I could say “leave him alone, he’s ours.”

    As I recall it, Farrelly was ranting the other day about how disgraceful it was to have children in detention. It’s weird to think that someone with those views would suddenly start gushing about the idea of having the Coalition in power for more than a decade.

    Really, there’s none so odd as Fairfax/ABC journos. Especially the female variety. Crying into their kale and chia soy lattes about boat people and income inequality the one minute; flirting with Tony Abbott or ScoMo and telling us what truly decent blokes they are the next. And now having hot flushes about Malcolm.

    At least with someone like Bolt or Miranda Devine you always know where you stand.

  13. zoomster@7: it is actually pretty remarkable for leaders to talk directly and openly to the public. Gorton was the last Lib PM that I can recall. Fraser and Peacock, like Abbott, used a lot of slogans. Howard talked of what he felt the “Australian people” (in the third person) wanted in a voice dripping with faux sincerity. Hewson tried to talk intelligently, but was shouted down by a scare campaign.

    Hawke talked openly intelligently to the people. So did Beazley and (although everyone hates him now except me) Latham. And so did Rudd (with a dash of “look at me, look at me”) and Gillard. And so does Shorten. I don’t think Keating communicated well to the public: all that came through to most people was his arrogance and strong sense of contempt.

    Turnbull does talk intelligently and, like Hawke, tends to circumlocution. But, also like Hawke, the “vibe” is good, so people stop might listening but still thry like the guy.

  14. mb

    I think you prove my point – it’s remarkable when Liberal leaders do!

    Turnbull talks intelligently, yes, but he tends to use his intelligence to tie the listener up in verbiage to avoid actually saying something. It’s deflection, not engagement.

    And I don’t think Farrelly is correct to say that he treats voters as grown ups. Quite the reverse – I get the impression he regards most people are slightly backwards primary school children. There was a recent speech where he addressed the public directly and the pace and tone was exactly that used by primary school teachers (“If I speak slowly and clearly and avoid using big words you might get this…”)

  17. Turnbull’s main appeal is that he doesn’t talk unintelligently. No “Death Cults” and no 3-word slogans. No 12-flaggers. He speaks with hesitation, as if before the words come out he’s considering dozens of different issues before he enunciates one of them.

    He’s quite intelligent and has a good eye for detail. I realized that when he once went head to head with Tony Jones on Lateline. Jones had documents in front of him that he was quoting from, but it was Turnbull, correcting Jones, who got the quote right and Jones who got it wrong.

    But there is something about his judgement that fires-off some of the few brain cells left in the back of my head. It’s failed him time and time again when he comes up against a wily operator (such as Howard – and indeed Abbott – during the republic plebscite).

    The ABC may fawn and gush, and Fairfax too, but mostly what they are talking about is his style. Farrelly, in that article, lists some mistakes he’s made already, but forgives them because of his style. Style doesn’t create jobs or heal the sick. It calms people down, but doesn’t make real improvements to their lives. It’s better than the braying Abbott and his band of ageing warriors, but in the end won’t be enough.

    And until Turnbull has had his baptism of fire, we won’t know for sure. My money is on “once-Malcolm, always-Malcolm”.

    When business types see revenue problems they start selling off and sacking workers. That’s one way to improve the bottom line. If Turnbull does this then he’s toast. He may not be able to stop it because of both the heckling from his own party if he does not, but also because sell-offs and sackings are easy, short-term solutions that only put off the evil day when finally someone has to call the liquidator.

    He talks a lot about building, but that’s just his style.

  19. zoomster – Farrelly is obviously besotted because one of her type (Easter Suburbs) is PM. Truly pathetic. She should stick to architecture (though having read that guff I wonder if she knows anything about that)

  20. lizzie – He’s rude and piggish – seriously. He will shake someone’s hand for the first time and insult their appearance. I’ve heard a wonderful story about him doing that.

  21. People on this blog (like me) have been saying that Turnbull’s popularity will tumble when he has to make some tough decisions. But I think his answer to that is to make no tough decisions – none. It’s now pretty clear that Malcolm isn’t going to do anything. He’s going to float along and waffle and try to slip through an election in the first half of next year. No budget, no tough decisions. After all, he looks at the polls and sees that the strategy is working.

  25. lizzie: I am told that Turnbull can be charming but also pretty difficult to interact with . Even his wife acknowledges that he is inclined towards outbursts when he doesn’t get his own way. It was said by someone (Mungo Macallum I think) after the Republic convention that the only motion that you would have received a near-unanimous endorsement from delegates was one that read “that Malcolm should F off!”

    I am also told that he has worked hard on his anger management and is vastly improved from what he was like when LOTO. But some of his colleagues haven’t forgiven him.

    And, of course, some of the Monkey Pod variety don’t like him because he believes in climate change, gay marriage, multiculturalism, that the earth goes around the sun, etc, etc

  26. lizzie

    I suspect part of the reason is the Coalition MPs have the pleasure of dealing with him up close and personal and know what he his like away from the camera.

  27. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s reading and vic for the vids.

    On Turnbull, yes he speaks like a grown up but the extent to which this is apparent is only emphasised because of the Abbott years spent talking smack – about people, about important issues, and esp about his political opponents.

    He is also loved because people believe he will do something about social issues like marriage equality and environmental issues like AGW. But he can’t act unilaterally, he needs his party to support him on that and there’s no evidence that will happen any time soon.

  28. Nick Whitlam was a business partner with Turnbull in the 80s along with Neville Wran. Nick was known as a bit of a wide boy who was on pretty good terms with himself.

    In his biography he said he had one of those self realisation moments in a meeting with the “Partners” when he realised he was the least arrogant, smug arsehole in the room.

  30. BTW, despite what I said earlier about slightly flirty Fairfax/ABC journos, I really enjoyed Kitchen Cabinet last night. The (somewhat unexpectedly) pig-killing, salami-loving Greens leader Di Natale continues to impress with his basic decency and his quick-witted responses to curly questions. Quite a talent it’s a damn shame about some of the rabid lefties in his team.

    Ricky Muir last week was good too. KC is a really entertaining and enjoyable show: full credit to Crabb. I’m surprised to see it being bagged around the place.

    It must be the contrarian in me, but I like it.

  31. BTW, despite what I said earlier about slightly flirty Fairfax/ABC journos, I really enjoyed Kitchen Cabinet last night. The (somewhat unexpectedly) pig-killing, salami-loving Greens leader Di Natale continues to impress with his basic decency and his quick-witted responses to curly questions. Quite a talent it’s a damn shame about some of the rabid lefties in his team.

    Ricky Muir last week was good too. KC is a really entertaining and enjoyable show: full credit to Crabb. I’m surprised to see it being bagged around the place.

    It must be the contrarian in me, but I like it.

  33. Turnbull probably likes having the “feather duster’ faction (as Nikki Savva refers to them) rumbling and disgruntled in the background.

    It’s like the evangelical revivalist preacher that hires the local sous for all his sermons. It’s good to have an unreconstructed image of what the alternative is to remind the congregation the consequences of going back to their wicked ways.

  34. [KC is a really entertaining and enjoyable show: full credit to Crabb. I’m surprised to see it being bagged around the place.]

    For many, including me, it’s Crabb who’s the problem. Almost anyone else would be an improvement.

  35. GG@28: that story is just believable if the only people in the room were Nick W and Malcolm. Unless Kevin Rudd had dropped by unexpectedly (and possibly not even then).

  38. [For many, including me, it’s Crabb who’s the problem.]

    Plus the format for me, although it’s largely Crabb who is the problem.

  39. BB. It really wouldn’t work with anyone else. It has to be someone a little fluffy and non-threatening (could you imagine KC with Tony Jones?). But Crabb is also very smart, and asks some good questions in between courses.

    But I do worry about her. How is she going to keep that enviably svelte figure (a lot of mothers of three kids wouldn’t dream of slipping into the sort of dress she had on last night) if she keeps chewing down on potato pizzas and those desserts she rocks up with!

  41. Andrew Street in his article linked by BK above thoroughly demolishes Greg Hunt’s absurd claims regarding how well Direct Inaction is working. Greg must know it’s all bullshit, a pretend scheme to appease those worried about climate while not imposing costs of big polluters/donors. Why does he do it? He is a laughing stock, I respect him even less than I respect Tony Abbott.

  42. Meher Baba @ 10,
    “Really, there’s none so odd as Fairfax/ABC journos. Especially the female variety. Crying into their kale and chia soy lattes about boat people and income inequality the one minute; flirting with Tony Abbott or ScoMo and telling us what truly decent blokes they are the next. And now having hot flushes about Malcolm.”

    Perhaps this can be explained by the fact that ‘journalists’ are owned. Their opinions are usually the views of their owners.

  45. [Construction workers will receive counselling after seeing their two Northern Irish workmates crushed to death by concrete panels that fell from a truck in East Perth yesterday.

    The pair are believed to have been having a cigarette break about 11.30am outside the Bennett Street site, where apartments are being built, when they were pinned under the big slabs.

    The tragedy was followed by a workplace death in the afternoon when a worker fell from scaffolding at Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/30197263/crushed-workers-were-on-smoko-break/

    Just awful.

  48. fess

    [He is also loved because people believe he will do something about social issues like marriage equality and environmental issues like AGW. But he can’t act unilaterally, he needs his party to support him on that and there’s no evidence that will happen any time soon.]

    I agree with most of this, but I don’t give him the excuse you do. I tend to think that, even if the party was right behind him, he wouldn’t act on some of these issues. The party just gives him an out.

  49. The other reason why Turnbull won’t go for any big reforms is that they will just reveal huge splits in his own party. He must be terrified about what he’s already seen when he opened the GST pandora’s box. So in the interests of party unity, they are going to fluff around and do nothing.

  50. I was having a chat with a builder I know yesterday and he said that a couple of years ago he could employ a plasterer and other tradesmen for about $45 an hour. Now you have to pay about $110 an hour because kids these days just don’t want to be tradesmen! The work is too hard.

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