The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a correction after what was probably an Ipsos-driven overshoot last week, with a milder result from Newspoll drawing the Coalition two-party lead back 0.7%, and moving the seat projection two points in favour of Labor, with gains in New South Wales and Victoria. However, Newspoll’s leadership ratings have added further distance between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister, although Shorten’s own net approval rating comes in slightly higher than last week’s.
Preselection news:
• The ABC reports on friction within the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy axis of the Victorian Right over the preselection in the Melbourne seat of Wills, which is to be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Conroy is backing Mehmet Tillem, his former chief-of-staff and briefly a Senator, who now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalidakis. However, Shorten is pushing for the seat to go to a woman, perhaps motivated by concern about the rising strength of the Greens. The Greens outpolled the Liberals to finish second at the 2013 election, but would need a 15.2% swing againt Labor to win the seat. A meeting of Labor’s administrative committee tonight will determine when the vote is to be held, with the ABC reporting that the Conroy forces favour an earlier-than-expected vote before Christmas. The ABC further reports that Moreland councillor and former mayor Meaghan Hopper is a confirmed starter, along with the previously reported Joshua Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor.
• Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry retained first and second position on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket in a preselection vote held on Saturday. The difficult but winnable third position goes to Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman. Blair Richards of The Mercury reports that Sally Chandler, who narrowly failed to win a seat from number three in 2013, declined to accept the unwinnable fourth position, amid complaints that the Tasmanian Liberals have not had a woman in federal parliament in 20 years.
• A leading Labor preselection candidate for the seat of Robertson, Anne Charlton, has revealed to preselectors that she was addicted to heroin and “in trouble with the law” at the age of 16. Charlton is now chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and has since found a place in the Senate. Labor’s preselection field will also include Belinda Neal, the seat’s controversial member from 2007 to 2010, when she was defeated for preselection by O’Neill.
[ bemused
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 5:18 pm | Permalink
phoenix@686
FOCUS, FOCUS, FOCUS ….. we need to get rid of Malcolm & Co ….not each other …
How does ANY comment on PB assist in that noble aim?
]
An enemy can partly ruin a man, but it takes a good-natured injudicious friend to complete the thing and make it perfect.
Mark Twain
I go back to that most enlightening maxim :
DISUNITY is DEATH !!!!
I say again lets get rid of Malcolm & his bunch of crooks, shysters, shonks and spivs TOGETHER as a UNITED front !!!!!
TPOF
You really need to stop your one up man ship it is not getting you anywhere.
[Now I think Israel is a rogue nation intent on genocidal extermination of the Palestinians,]
This for starters. I know there is a definition of ‘genocide’, popular among some Palestinian supporters, which is intended to throw the Holocaust back in the face of Israel. But by no possible stretch of the normal imagination could the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians be genocide in terms of normal thinking.
Perhaps the Rwandan Tutsis could dream of the kind of genocide that Palestinians have faced at the hands of Israel.
TPOF
You made a statement that said Israel had no skin in the game regarding Syria/iraq and therby doubted the truth of the Israli colonel caught with rebels. Now I, unlike you make no claim about the truth or not of the statement. All I did was to list 5 strategic reasons why Israel would have skin in the game ie a reason to support ISIL and Sunni insurgents. I am not saying they did or did not but you comment that they had no reason to do so was either naive or duplicitous.
TPOF
Nope, can’t even whisper the name 😆 😆
TPOF@695
Israel is currently ruled by an extremely evil government, is burdened by a fascist ‘settler movement’ and has a rapidly breeding population of religious nutters propping up its extremist government.
I feel sorry for decent Israelis who actually want peace.
bemused
[All to do with the treacherous way he ran backwards into Gillard’s knife.Extremely devious and treacherous!.. :lol:]
Yeah did it all himself and Shorten wasn’t involved in the coup was he – of course not!
[All to do with the treacherous way he ran backwards into Gillard’s knife.
Extremely devious and treacherous!}
Gillard’s knife – or knives held by almost the entire Parliamentary Labor Party sick to death of being treated like stepped in dog turd by Rudd and having to stay silent about it for the good of the party?
Perhaps, you might refer to an unrelenting three year campaign, including the ultimate act of bastardry during the 2010 campaign of strategic leaking against his own party on the basis that if he could not be PM, he was damned if Labor was going to win under Gillard.
Of course, that unrelenting misconduct left us with Abbott and, now, Waffles, who is talking nice but doing nothing.
And this too:
[It was simply a list opf the OBVIOUS strategic advantages for Israel in removing Assad and having a weak Syria. ]
Of course there were obvious strategic advantages in removing Assad, but as I pointed out there were obvious strategic advantages in not supporting a change in Syria which you ignored because they complicated your predetermined world view.
Airlines @ 679,
#Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 44 (-1) ALP 35 (-1) GRN 10 (0) #auspol
That’s a start. 🙂
[ The Liberals love to think they can weave a tangled web that will tie people up in knots that can’t be untangled. ]
LoL! Yup, they are just so smart about it.
Until someone ups and cuts that particular Gordion Knot by saying…yeah..I did it….on TV!
Brough = FAIL.
TPOF@708
Strange how none of the MPs I know have said anything remotely like that.
Also strange how even some of his vocal detractors wanted him to campaign in their electorates.
Gillard was just so shockingly bad that any living breathing alternative just had to be there to attract interest and be seen as a replacement.
Too dopey to merit refutation.
TPOF
Now while I did throw in cheekily the genocide comment, the topic was ISIS in Syria and Iraq and the participation of Israel. I am very happy to take yopu on regarding Palestine at some later date, but with WWIII only the sanity of Putin away, I am npot so inclined today.
Stick to the topic. I am NOT talking about Palestine. There are plenty of people who are calling Israel the evil hand behind the mess in Syria. I am not one of them. The nutters/fascists in the US and UK military are more than capable of doing this for themselves, because the enemy is NOT any Arab state (even Syria) but the game is all about Russia. While israle and Mossad may play a role of some kind, it is much more likely that MI6 has a major role than Israel, which is not particularly anti Russia.
Can you grasp what I am saying?
Jeeeezus!
I go out to purchase a couple of bottles of wine and the Rudd Wars have started.
Bushfire Bill@714
And as usual kicked off by the Rudd haters.
Airlines,
A couple more 🙂
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes Nov 17
#Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 45 (0) ALP 36 (+1) GRN 10 (0) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes Nov 9
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 46 (+1) ALP 34 (-1) GRN 10 (-1) #auspol
Looks like a bit of flatlining or going backwards to me.
daretotread
I’m more concerned at the mo’ with the sanity of Erdogan and his trying to be Princip 2.0 .
[ Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 5:35 pm | Permalink
Jeeeezus!
I go out to purchase a couple of bottles of wine and the Rudd Wars have started.
]
I give up too, BB …. toss in TBA, ESJ, Crank etc etc with their subliminal subversive trolling designed to create disunity and disharmony …… and Malcolm walks it in ….
poroti@717
You have to wonder who in Turkey thought it a good idea to shoot down that Russian jet, even in the unlikely event they thought it was a Syrian jet.
Has anyone heard from Malcolm yet? Is he going to say that Labor’s target will slam the economy? I’m fascinated to see how he tries to waffle through this issue.
DTT @ 704
What I said at 620 was:
[You are relying on a report published by the Iranians. It’s very attractive to think that it is all being organised in a vast conspiracy with Israel at the centre, but basically it does not make any geo-strategic sense – especially for Israel.]
I said more at 643 as to why Israel would prefer a stable, rather than an unstable Syria. I’m not and never did suggest that this was a moral or ethical approach; rather that instability in Syria, especially where there is no clear line of sight as to where it will all end up is not in Israel’s strategic interests.
Also, I never said that Israel had no skin in the game. It has total skin in the game. It’s just that it suits Iran’s interests to claim that Israel is working with IS as the general hatred of Israel throughout the Arab and wider Muslim world would encourage further Arab action against Daesh – on the basis that anyone who consorts with the Little Satan must be evil.
I have no real idea what Israel is doing at the moment in that theatre. I suspect it is laying down sleeper links with the various players to ensure that it has lines of influence and human intelligence whoever comes out on top post-conflict.
I just don’t like being called naive as an opening gambit by someone who has displayed incredibly naive, simplistic and ideologically driven commentary herself (or himself if the miscreant is a male).
EG
[How much would it be in New Zealand?
Does never having been sued make a difference to the rate?]
NZ is a lot less as their legal system has a no fault payout.
Your rate doesn’t change depending on how many times you have been sued.
TPOF
You must be a bit of a psycopath (now that is an insult but I am angry now).
The 2010 campaing was just weeks after the public knifing of Rudd and his humiliation at the hands of Swan and Gillard. Anyone (and I mean anyone) who is not at core a psychopath with zero empathy, could not in any sane way have expected Rudd to behave with perfect propiety, especially after the unremitting campaing of peronal denigrastion that started a week or so after his knifing.
People HURT!!!! It was indicative of Gillard’s unfitness to lead that she allowed the Rudd denigration to continue. A true leader would have called the boyos all in and told them to cut the crap and bullying. She would have promised him the FM position and made sure only praise went his way. Any other action was just plain stupid, and showed a weak position by Gillar and psychopathic personality by the factional hacks. Human Behaviour AO1 would tell you this obvious fact.
c@tmomma, 710, 716
If we are allowed to cherrypick polls and not use aggregates (which are arguably a lot more reliable) and if we are going to ignore the fact that Turnbull ascended and took votes from the Greens and the ALP (which cannot be attributed to Di Natale) and these are the results of those polls:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-leadership-faces-new-dangers-as-new-ipsos-poll-predicts-coalition-wipeout-20150816-gj01ip.html
[Support for the Greens remains steady at a high 16 per cent, confirming a steady rise in the socially progressive environmental party’s support under the leadership of the urbane former medico, Richard Di Natale.]
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6446-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-september-7-2015-201509070607
[Support for the Greens has risen to a new record high of 16.5% (up 2.5%)]
or more recently (ie affected by Turnbull, although you seem to be ignoring that):
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6559-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-november-16-2015-201511160453
[Support for the Greens was unchanged at 14.5%]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gst-rise-backed-by-voters-if-other-taxes-cut-fairfaxipsos-poll-20151115-gkzmpf.html
Greens – 13%
Of course using polls without aggregation isn’t a great idea of getting a pinpoint idea of the electorate, but the last time the Greens polled in single figures that I can see is two 9% polls in Essential in March.
phoenix at 718
At one point I had the same view as you. I’ve now come to realise that what anyone says here doesn’t make the slightest bit of difference to what is going on in the wider political world.
If Malcolm is going to be defeated at the next election, it is down to how long he can keep up the Panglossian waffle delivered with Churchillian mien before enough voters begin to realise that nothing of substance has changed – only a relieving change of rhetoric.
TPOF
[I just don’t like being called naive as an opening gambit by someone who has displayed incredibly naive, simplistic and ideologically driven commentary herself (or himself if the miscreant is a male).]
Well that is away to get someone on your side isn’t it?
Changing tack slightly…
Any thoughts on the final test in Adelaide today/this evening with the pink ball, etc.
TPOF
I listed five sound reasons why Israel would see strategic advantage in a weak Syria. Sure they used to value a stable Syria because they had Iraq and Egypt and even Saudi against them, but over the last 20 years these have all lost thir clout and there is much less advantage to Israle by Syrian stability.
By the way I am not in this case assuming Israel is behaving especiually immorally any more than EVERY other nation.
So how about you read my five strategic reasons and give me coherent arguments to show where I have erred.
“a way”
Diogenes@722
Does your union support having a no-fault system like NZ?
I’m mistaken – Essential in June had the Greens on 9%
The last time the Greens polled single figures in other polls are:
Morgan, Jan 2015
ReachTEL, January 2014
Newspoll, September 2013 (pre-election)
Wow a couple of things
First Obama is not a weak President. He has achieved the most of any President since Reagan.
Second. TPOF talk about tackling the big issues. Rudd and Israel at the same time.
I will ignore the Rudd part all know what I think by now. On Israel there is truth to what DTT is saying. However its not conspiracy its self interest at work.
The US was invading Iraq and at the time Israel was against that and rightly so. Israel was under less threat of attack from extremists before the Iraq war than now. Note less does not say none.
Of course Israel is fomenting its enemies to attack each other rather that it. However its a game of diminishing returns.
However much as this is happening in terms of the Syria quagmire Israel is a bit player. The Shia Sunni conflict is what counts.
@UnitedVoiceVic: MEDIA RELEASE: Sacked @Myer whistleblower reinstated after online backlash https://t.co/h4ZqLteFqC #ausunions #auspol #myer @GedKACTU
Darren Lehman should ask the selectors to pick his son for the Hobart test since he is thrashing a half decent Tassie attack all around Bellerive as we post
Time for a beer laddies and lasses.
In fact, f&ck it, I will have a more than one.
As Jack Cade said “I shall make it felony to drink small beer!”.
dtt @ 723
Who are you? Therese?
[Anyone (and I mean anyone) who is not at core a psychopath with zero empathy, could not in any sane way have expected Rudd to behave with perfect propiety, especially after the unremitting campaing of peronal denigrastion that started a week or so after his knifing.]
The Labor Party gave Rudd a shot at being PM. Hardly anyone outside knew how badly he fluffed his human relations. There is a difference between behaving with perfect propriety (although Julia Gillard managed to do that until well after the 2013 election and, as you point out endlessly, she is hardly a saint) and actively undermining the prospects of the party who made you PM as an act of revenge.
As for an unremitting campaign of personal denigration, every commentator has made the point that the biggest mistake Gillard and the others made after Rudd was dumped was to not tell everyone what he was really like, in order to protect his dignity. He then used their courtesy to found a whole culture of the victim cut down by dastardly union driven factions.
TPOF
I called you naive. You called me. i said you were a precious petal. You then said bizarre. I raised you psychopath. You countered with miscreant.
What must I raise you in this childish game of abuse. I stick to naive. I stick to psycopathic personality (or perhaps more fairly a very low level of empathy). I am not going to engage further in your silly game.
I suggest you actually read my comments and post rationally in exchange. Otherwise I stick also to my comment about limited intellectual cred.
Just some thoughts on the proposal by Labor to increase tobacco excise. This attracted some criticism particularly by those that seem to support a rise in the GST. Their argument is that a rise in excise is regressive and therefore invalidates Labor’s argument that they oppose a rise in the GST because it too is regressive.
What seems to be forgotten is that the rise in excise on cigarettes can be avoided. If you give up or reduce your smoking you avoid or reduce any financial impact. With the GST it is virtually impossible to avoid its regressive impact. So it is with a lot of other imposts and fines e.g speeding. They are regressive, having a greater impact on poorer people compared to the rich but again are entirely avoidable. Surely no one is arguing that we make the level of the speeding fine different for different levels of income
TOPF
I forgot. What Israel is doing to the Palestinian people the UN has found to be war crimes. To be sure both sides do it. However two wrongs do not make a right.
So then you are back at what will stop it. Israel refusing to give up land and in fact to send settlers in to control more land is only inflaming the situation.
While this is not genocide of the type Hitler did its still genocide because the aim seems to be no Palestine.
[Any thoughts on the final test in Adelaide today/this evening with the pink ball, etc.]
Forget the pink ball, in England they are changing the rules about coin tosses! The visiting captain can choose to bowl, if not, they toss.
I mean… is there nothing sacred anymore? Nothing has meaning, everything is contestable, the truth is NOT out there!!!
TPOF
You should phone my former boss John Faulkner he was the third person in the room none of us were there and are working on hearsay.
Diogenes
The no fault ACC set up was introduced because the government of the day found that getting rid of the lawyers made it cheaper than just paying out. A sad day for kiwi ambulance chasers.
TPOF
For God’s bloody sake give the RGR wars a rest.
Every commentator is obviously not the case. You also must realise that there were plenty in the ALP (especially victoria) who hated Gillard as much as others hated Rudd. She too had muffed some personal relationships. So bloody what? It is politics. Everyone does this.
I am not Therese but I have gone through a similar type of experience and I have witnessed many others who have failed in pre-selections or elections. I have seen and felt their pain. I have been in the workforce and suffered much like BBs wife. I feel her pain. I also KNOW that in the immediate months after such events, people respond angrily and unreasonably – it is to be expected. As the years pass the anger turns to depression, but behaviour is less erratic.
Those of you who cannot see this either lack empathy or have lived absurdly sheltered lived.
[Well that is away to get someone on your side isn’t it?]
But I never expressed that view before I was put down as naive.
Can anybody tell me if the legislation for the changes to Australia Post has gone through yet?
I visited the post office this afternoon and happened to ask when the price of a stamp is going up. I was handed an explanatory pamphlet – and my jaw just dropped when I started to read it. What an effing con job.
From 4 January next year there will be three different rates of delivery and cost – Express Post, Priority and Regular. Express post is exactly what we have now, guaranteed next business day delivery. But presumably at a higher price than it is now. (none of the new prices are mentioned).
So called Priority will take 1 to 4 business days – and that is not from the day you actually post the item but from the next day. So effectively your priority item – for which you pay extra – can take up to a whole working week to arrive.
Regular will take up two business days longer than priority. I kid you not. So if you post a letter at regular rates on Monday , probably at a greater cost than what you are paying now for ordinary mail, it could take until halfway through the following week to arrive.
Despite all the kite flying there has been this year by the government and Australia Post, I doubt that many people really understand the full extent of this. And when they finally do, I reckon the government is going to have a pretty tough time selling it.
A bit of that Turnbull sheen may well be heading out the door first thing next year.
Shoud Brough come under whistle blower protections?
“@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 55 (+2) ALP 45 (-2) #auspol”
Has anyone made a transcript of the killing season Rudd Gillard would be more fun if every assertion was supported by two quotes from different people in the show with extra points for using non-caucus members quotes (because caucus members have a vested interest in not looking like dopes).
Reachtel poll bad for Bill Shorten.
TPOF
You poor bubba. I have been called turd, DDT, and who knows what else here (I can now add miscreant). Naive is the least of it. Even Bemused who I know and like has called me much worse than naive. Truly, ruly you are being a bit silly.