The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week records a correction after what was probably an Ipsos-driven overshoot last week, with a milder result from Newspoll drawing the Coalition two-party lead back 0.7%, and moving the seat projection two points in favour of Labor, with gains in New South Wales and Victoria. However, Newspoll’s leadership ratings have added further distance between Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister, although Shorten’s own net approval rating comes in slightly higher than last week’s.
Preselection news:
• The ABC reports on friction within the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy axis of the Victorian Right over the preselection in the Melbourne seat of Wills, which is to be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Kelvin Thomson. Conroy is backing Mehmet Tillem, his former chief-of-staff and briefly a Senator, who now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalidakis. However, Shorten is pushing for the seat to go to a woman, perhaps motivated by concern about the rising strength of the Greens. The Greens outpolled the Liberals to finish second at the 2013 election, but would need a 15.2% swing againt Labor to win the seat. A meeting of Labor’s administrative committee tonight will determine when the vote is to be held, with the ABC reporting that the Conroy forces favour an earlier-than-expected vote before Christmas. The ABC further reports that Moreland councillor and former mayor Meaghan Hopper is a confirmed starter, along with the previously reported Joshua Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor.
• Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry retained first and second position on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket in a preselection vote held on Saturday. The difficult but winnable third position goes to Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman. Blair Richards of The Mercury reports that Sally Chandler, who narrowly failed to win a seat from number three in 2013, declined to accept the unwinnable fourth position, amid complaints that the Tasmanian Liberals have not had a woman in federal parliament in 20 years.
• A leading Labor preselection candidate for the seat of Robertson, Anne Charlton, has revealed to preselectors that she was addicted to heroin and “in trouble with the law” at the age of 16. Charlton is now chief-of-staff to Deb O’Neill, who held Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, and has since found a place in the Senate. Labor’s preselection field will also include Belinda Neal, the seat’s controversial member from 2007 to 2010, when she was defeated for preselection by O’Neill.
Victorian Labor branch stacking…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-27/conroy-accuses-labor-foe-of-racial-profiling/6979424
[But the Head/Beattie investigation found that anonymous pre-paid cards were not being used systematically to hide branch stacking in the party.
Senator Stephen Conroy, a powerful figure in the right faction, attended the meeting and told those present he was representing Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.
According to a number of witnesses, Senator Conroy accused long-time critic of branch stacking Eric Dearricott of racial profiling after Mr Dearricott asked to be able to present his evidence to Mr Head and Ms Beattie.
Critics of the investigation described it as a whitewash, with one saying the report did not dig deep enough because the party feared more fraudulent payments would be discovered if it had.
A motion by Geoff Lake to appoint an independent person gathered little support.]
Heard Race Mathews interviewed on ABC radio this morning. He said the inquiry was a whitewash and again demanded an independent inquiry be held.
4 November 2015: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shortens-best-mates-are-kneedeep-in-gift-card-branchstacking-scandal-20151104-gkqlez.html
[However, rather than an independent inquiry, the party’s powerful administrative committee last week appointed Shorten-aligned numbers man Garth Head to co-head the probe. The meeting also appointed branch stacker Mr Suleyman to the committee that oversees party membership.
The revelations come as furious party elders step up their demand for a truly independent investigation of the rorts.
Race Mathews, a former state and federal MP, has criticised the decision to appoint Labor Right figure Mr Head and the Left’s Liz Beattie to investigate the use of the pre-paid gift cards. He wants an independent inquiry.
Jieh-Yung Lo, co-founder of group Poliversity, which wants to encourage cultural diversity within the ALP, also called for an independent investigation.]
The ‘fix’ was in.
@fion_li: #China Brokerages Lead #Stock Declines on Widening Investigations https://t.co/vR8EVfZa31 via @business #HongKong #finance
Simon Katich@600
They have been for months.
Anyone who owned these shares has had since early April to do something about it – like sell.
You would have needed to have a very good reason to hold them after the price almost halved in late June.
The main owners of the business probably couldn’t have sold though for various reasons.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGH.AX#symbol=SGH.AX;range=1y
Their customers have fewer alternatives.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4360858.htm
[MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: A collection of some of the world’s leading scientists and economists will today publish an open letter calling for a global moratorium on new coal mines.
The letter, published later today in the New Scientist magazine and the Guardian newspaper, will argue it makes economic and scientific sense to stop building new coal mines.
The signatories include some Nobel Prize-winning economists, scientists and former business leaders.
One of them is Ian Dunlop, the former Shell executive and former chair of the Australian Coal Association.]
The Greens Party long-held position of no new coal mines is now mainstream.
Greens Party Transition Plan for Australia’s Coal Export Sector released in September: http://greens.org.au/node/12544
Greens Party policies – evidence-based and future-oriented.
Dave, they should never have let solicitors incorporate and go from being professionals to businessmen. Truly outrageous.
K17
That applies to many listing.
Really they were ‘selling’ part of the business by doing so – as well as punting on making more money from the stockmarket.
Personally I don’t think the ASX itself should be listed – it should have remained a institution ensuring a smooth and fair market – but that function has been hived off to ASIC.
The main brokers previously owned the ASX and they couldn’t resist going the punt themselves and/or cashing in their interest.
Joint Labor and Greens motion to establish an inquiry into the future of Australia’s steel industry and its supply chain has passed in the Senate.
The inquiry will be conducted by the Senate Economics References Committee and will report by the last sitting day of June 2016.
EGT@579:
I pay much less than Dio (~ 10%), but am a non-procedural physician who has practiced mainly in public hospitals for the last 35 years. Suing for opinion or advice for patients with chronic or lethal illnesses in public hospitals is vanishingly rare in Oz.
Dunno about NZ, but I think it’s significantly less, since they have had no-fault compensation for much longer, have had a significantly smaller private/elective procedural sector, and the medical salaries are about half those in NSW.
As I understand it, the “cost” bands vary with the actuarial risk of the specialty/practice, so, in general, being sued does not change the “contributions”, however there is the risk of being declined cover for misconduct, and most Medical Defence organisations have options for “runoff” cover for past practice. I’ve never been sued either, so I don’t know much about the benthic depths.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@605
That is a joke isn’t it?
steven @442,
‘ VOCED and any other education should NEVER be allowed to be run as a unfetted and uncontrolled cash cow by private enterprise. Phoenix absolutely made a motza with the incompetent policy around fees and loans.’
It’s so bad The Australian had it on their front page yesterday and claimed that this could be the Coalition’s ‘Pink Batts’!!!
C@tmomma
But we need a phrase as short as “Pink Batts Disaster” to hit them with.
Bit rich for the Labor supporters here to be complaining about the NBN under the Libs when Senator Conjob delivered less than 10% of what he promised.
daretotread
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 11:18 am
‘I hope Turkey is getting a VERY good deal for shooting down the Russian plane.’
You might be interested to read this:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/guess-who-is-behind-the-islamic-state-israeli-colonel-caught-with-is-pants-down/5491582
It may be murky in Turkey but it’s getting downright strange in Iraq!
[13.Bit rich for the Labor supporters here to be complaining about the NBN under the Libs when Senator Conjob delivered less than 10% of what he promised.]
Cleaning up the mess Howard and Costello created took a lot more time and effort than they anticipated.
Cleaning up Malcolm’s vandalism will cost a lot more and take a lot longer.
Asha Leu @ 593,
‘ Meanwhile, as demonstrated by Pyne’s comments, Turnbull’s new “moderate” government continues to trot out the tired Abbot lines about big new taxes and to resist any meaningful action against climate change.’
I wish a journo in the same room as Political Click Bait Chris would ask him to please explain the effect on electricity bills of a 15% GST then!?! But no, as the Coalition are simply tilling the ground for a 15% GST at the moment the Canberra Press Gallery won’t go there, however, will ‘report’ on whatever drivel pours forth from Pyne’s plughole, even though Labor aren’t even in government now but as if they were!
C@tmomma
[It may be murky in Turkey but it’s getting downright strange in Iraq!]
It’s no surprise that the Israelis would encourage the various nearby Arab militaries and insurgent groups to wipe each other out.
lizzie @ 611,
‘ But we need a phrase as short as “Pink Batts Disaster” to hit them with.’
Maybe we can just leave it to The Australian to come up with one for us! 😉
The only one I can come up with off the top of my head atm id ‘Edurorts’.
[Bit rich for the Labor supporters here to be complaining about the NBN under the Libs when Senator Conjob delivered less than 10% of what he promised.]
Oh, bugger OFF, will you?
CTar1 @ 616,
‘ It’s no surprise that the Israelis would encourage the various nearby Arab militaries and insurgent groups to wipe each other out.’
What is interesting, however, is that the various Arab factions so loathe each other that they are prepared to dance with the Israeli devil!
CT @ 616
You are relying on a report published by the Iranians. It’s very attractive to think that it is all being organised in a vast conspiracy with Israel at the centre, but basically it does not make any geo-strategic sense – especially for Israel.
Would this be accurate?
[Margo Kingston
Margo Kingston – Verified account @margokingston1
#Ashbygate bottom line – PM Turnbull creates political history by not requiring a Minister to step down during a criminal investigation.]
TPOF
[a vast conspiracy with Israel at the centre]
I don’t think Israel is ‘at the centre’. Just that they may encourage strife between Arab groups when they get the chance.
I had not realised that 60 minutes had done a follow up story on Mal Brough, just after Turnbull appointed him as Special Minister of State!
[60 Minutes reveals details about the Federal Police investigation involving Mal Brough, who has just been appointed to Malcolm Turnbull’s first ministry. Twelve months ago, in an interview with Liz Hayes, Mal Brough admitted to procuring copies of Peter Slipper’s diary when he was Speaker in the Federal Parliament. Mr Slipper’s staffer, James Ashby, has also confirmed he handed over that information at Mal Brough’s request. Recently, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull appointed Mal Brough as his Special Minister of State, a role which is supposed to ensure parliamentary integrity. In two interviews this week he has tried to avoid answering questions about his role in the Peter Slipper scandal. 60 Minutes provides an insight into the AFP investigation, and what charges Mr Brough could face.]
Link
http://www.9jumpin.com.au/show/60minutes/stories/2015/september/question-time-for-mal-brough/
victoria,
What got my ears pricked up was when Turnbull derided Mark Dreyfus QC in Question Time and his forensic cross-examination of Brough as simply wtte ‘poncey barrister posturing’! Which was rich coming from Numero Uno Poncey Barrister Posturer, but disturbing coming from the Prime Minister of the nation.
‘A special snap SMS Morgan Poll shows a majority of Australians (61%) disapprove of Australia sending ground combat troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq & Syria and 39% approve. This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted last night (Thursday) with a cross-section of 973 Australians.’
Analysis by Voting Preference
Analysing the results by voting preference shows a majority of supporters of all parties against Australia sending ground combat troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq & Syria.
Liberal voters: Disapprove (54%) cf. approve (46%);
National voters: Disapprove (59%) cf. approve (41%);
ALP voters: Disapprove (70%) cf. approve (30%);
Greens voters: Disapprove (77%) cf. approve (23%);
Independent/ Others voters: Disapprove (56%) cf. approve (44%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by gender shows a slight gender split with a greater majority of women against sending Australian ground combat troops to fight Islamic State in Iraq & Syria:
Men: Disapprove (57%) cf. approve (43%);
Women: Disapprove (65%) cf. approve (35%).
Analysis by Age
Analysing by age shows younger Australians (under 25) and older Australians (over 50) are the most against sending Australian ground combat troops to fight Islamic State in Iraq & Syria:
18-24yr olds: Disapprove (62%) cf. approve (38%);
25-34yr olds: Disapprove (56%) cf. approve (44%);
35-49yr olds: Disapprove (50%) cf. approve (50%);
50-64yr olds: Disapprove (65%) cf. approve (35%);
65+yr olds: Disapprove (75%) cf. approve (25%).
Analysis by State
Analysing by State shows clear majorities in all Australian States against sending Australian ground troops to fight Islamic State in Iraq & Syria:
New South Wales: Disapprove (60%) cf. approve (40%);
Victoria: Disapprove (65%) cf. approve (35%);
Queensland: Disapprove (57%) cf. approve (43%);
Western Australia: Disapprove (57%) cf. approve (43%);
South Australia: Disapprove (69%) cf. approve (31%);
Tasmania: Disapprove (71%) cf. approve (29%).
Gary Morgan says:
“A clear majority (61%) of Australians are against Australia sending ground combat troops to Iraq & Syria to fight Islamic State while 39% approve of doing so. Majorities of supporters of all major parties are against sending ground combat troops with Greens supporters (77%) most opposed followed by ALP supporters (70%) and National supporters (59%). Liberal supporters are the most evenly divided on the issue with 54% disapproving of sending ground combat troops while 44% of Liberal supporters approve of sending Australian ground combat troops.
“Disapproval of sending ground troops is stronger amongst women (65%) than men (57%), however there is a wide variety of views among different age groups. Those aged 65+ are the most opposed with 75% disapproving (only 25% approving) of Australia sending ground troops – this is the age group most impacted by the Vietnam War (1962-1975). Australians aged 50-64 are also heavily opposed (65% disapprove cf. 35% approve), and those aged 18-24, perhaps the age group most likely to be sent to Iraq & Syria, are also heavily opposed (62% disapprove cf. 38% approve).
“In comparison it is those aged 25-49 that are evenly divided on the issue of sending Australian ground troops. 50% of 35-49yr olds approve cf. 50% disapprove whilst 25-34yr olds are slightly opposed (56% disapprove cf. 44% approve). These are the age groups that have experienced the Gulf War (1990-1991), Afghanistan War following the 9-11 atrocity (2001) and 2003 Invasion of Iraq. These wars involved relatively few Australian casualties in comparison to the Vietnam War.
“The Morgan Poll result today shows Australians are even more opposed to committing Australian ground combat troops to Syria & Iraq than indicated by a Newspoll conducted last weekend that showed 42% in favour of ground troops and 45% opposed. The results would have been influenced by a lead-up question asking respondents how likely they considered a terror attack in Australia.
“Today’s result is in contrast to a special snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted just over a year ago showed a majority of Australians (58.5%) supported Australia joining the US airstrikes in Syria while 41.5% disapproved of Australian involvement in airstrikes. The contrasting results show the complexity of the issue.”
C@tmomma
Truffles would know a lot about doing poncey!
In any case, these are questions put to Turnbull.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull refused to answer the following questions regarding Mal Brough:
1. Did the Prime Minister know that Mal Brough was under investigation by the Australian Federal Police, before appointing him as Special Minister of State?
2. If yes, why did he appoint him to that position?
3. If not, will he ask him to stand aside until the investigation is complete?
4. Why should the Australian people feel confident the Prime Minister has made the right decision when Mr Bough’s position has oversight of parliamentary integrity?
5. Do you believe it is appropriate for Mal Brough to have asked a political staffer to procure copies of the then Speaker’s diary? If yes – why?
Brough must have a private supply of a very persuasive oozy charm that he only uses on powerful Libs and the PM. The rest of us can’t see it.
lizzie
As put by this tweet. It is very simple
[Tom Malone
Tom Malone – @malonetj
The Mal Brough story is simple. It’s all here in his own words. This was after his Federal Court statements #60mins
http://www.9jumpin.com.au/show/60minutes/stories/2015/september/question-time-for-mal-brough/ …]
lizzie
I should have added. Very simple for everyone else to see that his conduct should see him resign from parliament, not just the front bench!
In short, people realise that Syria is a quagmire we are best to avoid. The ‘Boots On the Ground’ would have living, breathing bodies in them. And, at the end of the day they would make little difference to the ultimate outcome.
c@tmomma
Of course. Why I would say to those who want puts on the ground, to go themselves
[ victoria
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 3:19 pm | Permalink
lizzie
I should have added. Very simple for everyone else to see that his conduct should see him resign from parliament, not just the front bench!
]
Victoria, do you think Malcolm will let this Brough affair fester away like Tony did with Bronwyn Bishop – to his own discredit ?????
Oops
Put – boots
victoria,
Malcolm Turnbull has questions to answer!
phoenix
Turnbull owes Brough for plotting to get him the leadership. As I said in days gone by, Turnbull is between a rock and a hard place, but will be hoping Brough will step down of his own accord. Good luck with that I say!!
phoenix @ 633,
‘ Victoria, do you think Malcolm will let this Brough affair fester away like Tony did with Bronwyn Bishop – to his own discredit ?????’
It is exactly these sorts of issues which corrode the electorate’s faith in their political leaders.
This is a great paragraph by Guy Rundle. No wonder Labor Poll Bludgers are so irascible these days.
Lenore’s on to the Liberal lies, bless her. Hunt, Morrison, Turnbull, all quoting the erroneous figures.
“Post-Abbott, the Coalition is still claiming its own policies can cut emissions with almost no cost while wildly exaggerating the cost of alternatives”
[Let’s go back to what Malcolm Turnbull said on that day of drama when he launched his leadership bid.
“We need a style of leadership that explains those challenges and opportunities, explains the challenges and how to seize the opportunities,” he said.
“A style of leadership that respects the people’s intelligence, that explains these complex issues and then sets out the course of action we believe we should take and makes a case for it. We need advocacy, not slogans. We need to respect the intelligence of the Australian people.”
Quite. So why is his party ignoring its own up-to-date modelling with relevant assumptions and continuing with exaggerated cost claims?
At this rate we’ll soon be back to the $100 lamb roast.]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/27/coalitions-weird-climate-rhetoric-says-one-thing-its-modelling-says-another
[ victoria
Posted Friday, November 27, 2015 at 3:29 pm | Permalink
phoenix
Turnbull owes Brough for plotting to get him the leadership. As I said in days gone by, Turnbull is between a rock and a hard place, but will be hoping Brough will step down of his own accord. Good luck with that I say!!
]
….. but this affair also involves Pyne and Wyatt Roy to some degree as well as Ashby ….and if they can all be roped in it will make for some conspiracy …..
[Ian Dunlop, a former head of the Australian Coal Association, has rubbished the coal industry’s suggestion that there is a moral case to retain the energy source, an assertion famously adopted by Tony Abbott.
“It’s not true at all,” Dunlop told ABC radio on Friday. “There is no moral case for the use of coal, because the use of coal in the way we’ve been using it is going to cause massive poverty.
{Developing countries will need $270bn more to adapt to climate change – study}
“If we keep on pouring money into coal mines, we’re going to exacerbate poverty and cause more problems.”]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/27/coal-can-help-reduce-climate-change-says-minerals-council-of-australia
A survey has found that three out of five Australians believe coal is an energy source of the past and will soon be obsolete.
The legal industry should be closely regulated as the public utility that it is. So should the financial industry. Public legal services and public banks need to be a significant component of their respective industries. Access to legal services is essential to citizenship. Access to financial services is essential to full participation in the community. These goods have very large public good components and that fact needs to be reflected in how they are funded and regulated.
[Just that they may encourage strife between Arab groups when they get the chance.]
As opposed to every other grouping and nation in the middle east? Israel will make connections according to its interest, but it is not in Israel’s interest to encourage strife it if creates instability in locations where there is stability. Even great hostility, as there was from Assad’s Syria, was preferable to the great instability and randomness of the ongoing civil war there now – on the basis of the ‘devil you know’.
Listening to the RCCA I have come to the conclusion that there is no organised religion that can be trusted with the care of the vulnerable, particularly children. The attitude of senior church personnel to their own obfuscation, lies, excuses and bullshit is unacceptable.
“I accept that I failed to respond to the important issue at hand.” Bishop Peter Connors.
It is beyond time to remove Tax exemptions from these shysters and sue the bastards out of existence.
victoria@632
Yep. abbott wants boots on the ground.
Lets start with his!
Phoenix
Of course there were others involved In this conspiracy to bring down the speaker and the govt at the time. that is why I feel so strongly about this abuse of our democracy. These people should be held to account.
dave
Abbott can lead the charge
It is incredible how many conservative politicians openly advocate for military action, yet steered well clear of serving in the armed forces themselves. Gutless bastards
The question about Brough is not whether or not he “counselled and procured” Ashby to procure the Slipper diaries.
He has admitted that, outside of parliamentary privilege, on the fwarking TV FFS. Its on the public record. He was asked “Did you ask James Ashby to procure copies of Peter Slipper’s diary for you?”, and he replied, “Yes i did”.
There is not much wriggle room in that. Hays is only a Journo so he was under no obligation to answer in such a straight and definitive fashion…but he did. And it was ALL part of a sordid little plot to knife Slipper and oh…by the by…..bring down a properly elected Govt by changing the numbers in the HoR.
The only question seems to be, did he commit an offence by doing so?. I think thats going to come down to “simple” debate by lawyers over whether or not the AFP have written and referenced the charges correctly. I suspect that one Mal is fwarked, and the other Mal is not going to come out smelling like roses.
victoria@647
Vic, He may be injured or worse.
But shit happens.