Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, although Bill Shorten’s position on preferred prime minister continues to deteriorate.

The latest result from Newspoll, featured in tomorrow’s Australian, records the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 46%, Labor is down one to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 11%. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings eclipse last fortnight’s personal best with a four-point increase in approval to 60% and a two-point drop in disapproval to 22%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 26% and steady at 57%, but he has fallen further behind on preferred prime minister, from 61-18 to 64-15. The poll was conducted online and by automated phone polling between Thursday to Sunday, from a sample of 1573.

A first tranche from the results from the poll published yesterday focused on Syria and terrorism. On committing ground troops to Syria, 42% were supportive and 45% opposed; on refugees, 22% took the liberal (“should take more than 12,000”) and 44% the conservative (“should take fewer than 12,000”) position, while 27% opted for neutral (“12,000 is about right”); and 52% rejected the notion that priority should be given to Christians from Syria, with 41% in support. Seventy-six per cent considered it likely or higher that Islamic State would carry out a large-scale terrorist attack in Australia, including 24% for inevitable and 23% for very likely. Sixty-five per cent felt the Muslim community “should be doing more” in condemning terrorist attacks, with only 20% opting for “currently doing enough”, and 66% felt Muslims should be doing more to integrate, compared with 21% for currently doing enough.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 44%, Labor to 35% – with the balance being washed out in rounding, as the Greens and Palmer United stay steady on 10% and 1%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is steady at 52-48. Also:

• Fully 76% of respondents believe the terrorist threat to Australia has increased over the past few years, with only 2% opting for decreased. Thirty-two per cent support increased Australian military involvement in Syria and Iraq compared with 19% for decreased and 28% for make no change, but 45% believe doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 17% for more safe. Eleven per cent ascribe the motivation for the attacks to “reaction to role of western countries in the Middle East” and 29% go for “hatred of western culture and freedoms”, while 46% opt for “both”.

• An occasional question on climate change has 56% ascribing it to human activity and 32% favouring a ”normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, which is respectively unchnagd and up one point on July. Respondents generally considered that Australia was taking more action to address climate change than China, compared with somewhat less for the United States and a lot less for European countries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. A good television programme would be Vourafakis in conversation with Paul Keating. Also while on the subject of media for any that missed it Kerry O Brien is not retiring from Journalism just the ABC

  4. Crank

    You are the one saying its irrelevant. You go look up the ratings for yourself.

    Mumbrella is a site that seems to post ratings a lot.

  5. Once again the question arises – how low does the FP & 2PP have to fall before self-interest overrides the ridiculous ALP Leadership Voting Rules and a spill is on?

  9. CC

    I can tolerate people who are basically ALP supporters commenting on Shorten, but not uber RWNJs such as yourself. Not your call matey. Stick to discussing the LNP leadership – that’s your tribe. Loyal Greens also- same applies – not your call.

    So as an ALP member my comment is Shorten is struggling, but so too would anyone else. There is no messiah in the wings and although Tanya P is good it is too early for her to go for it.

    Now if turnbull starts to falter and lose support, but is still preferred to Shorten, then and only then is a leadership change even worth considering. Not there yet.

    Come back in February to review, but until Turnbull has brought down a budget, he will be in honey moon land.

  10. The troll obsession with Bill Shorten fascinates me.

    You would think a real Tory voter would be loving it.

    I was really happy with things when Abbott’s rating was in the sewer.

  11. “Once again the question arises – how low does the FP & 2PP have to fall before self-interest overrides the ridiculous ALP Leadership Voting Rules and a spill is on?”

    No what ridiculous is calling a spill in the middle of the night. What ridiculous is cutting down two prime minsters in their first term. What’s ridiculous is rank file membership getting no say, and letting a couple number crunchers call the shots. What’s ridiculous is Labor calling a spill on Shorten, and just reinforcing the Rudd/Gillards years that Labor changes leaders at a whim. What’s ridiculous is your suggesting that the 50/50 rule is a bad thing, and want to hand the power back too a few who abused it in the first place.

  14. dtt- that’s a cracker – have you asked William to delete all the posts by the non-LNP members here talking about the LNP leadership?

    Anyone looked at the betting markets recently?

  15. CC

    I do not think many here actually commented on the Lib internal fighting in the sense that they said Abbott must go or Turnbull must come in. Only those who are LNP supporters made these sort of comments and that is their perogative.

    What I am saying is that it is OK for you or any one else to comment on Shorten, but not to tell the ALP what to do.

  16. Dare to Tread @ 59

    What a ridiculous comment. Every one has a right to an opinion on Bill Shorten not just the Labor voters. Remember, it is non rusted on Labor voters that he needs to hold and Liberal and Green voters that he needs to gain if ever he is to win an election. Otherwise, he might as well be talking to the mirror.

  18. Watching Al Jazeera can be depressing.

    Fell asleep on the lounge last night watching something on ABC 24. Woke up in the middle of the night to be presented with Al Jazeera news.

    * Warring tribes in Libya,
    * Terrorists in Mali,
    * Fighting in Yemen,
    * Fake drugs in Pakistan killing hundreds,
    * Corruption in Kenya,
    * ISIS in Syria,
    * Refugees in Turkey and Southern Europe,
    * Stabbings in Israel,
    * Bombs in Iraq,
    * Indefinite detention in Egypt,
    * Starvation in Ethiopia,

    and in sport,

    * Sepp Blatter and a $2 million bribe,
    * The Afghan nation women’s cycling team condemned by mullahs.

    Cheery.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Unlike in Europe can Australia reject the rise of the radical right?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-the-radical-right-has-failed-in-australia-20151120-gl3o4q.html
    Paul Bongiorno tells us how senior Liberals are undermining Turnbull on terror.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/11/23/turnbull-soft-terror-party-wants-think/
    “View from the Street” takes aim at Senator Leyonhjelm today. Kevin Andrews and Cory Bernardi get some treatment too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-what-have-future-generations-ever-done-for-leyonhjelm-20151123-gl5tfp.html
    Alan Jones is simply too big for his little boots.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/broadcaster-alan-jones-compares-aleague-arrests-to-terrorism-in-paris-20151123-gl5oca.html
    And as for this guy . . . .
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/broadcaster-alan-jones-compares-aleague-arrests-to-terrorism-in-paris-20151123-gl5oca.html
    More union thuggery in the building and construction industry. Oh wait on!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-builder-bill-issa-convicted-of-attacking-clients-who-complained-about-his-work-20151123-gl6249.html
    Penny Wong catches Andrew Rodd out over Mr Furnvial. Remember that name?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/andrew-robb-trade-trip-with-former-nash-staffer-alastair-furnival-raises-questions-20151123-gl5lj3.html
    Ban Ki-moon serves it up to Australia over its refugee policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/uns-ban-kimoon-urges-australia-to-rethink-refugee-policy-in-extraordinary-rebuke-20151122-gl5bob.html
    Arfur Sinodinos caught in the hypocrisy trap.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/arthur-sinodinos-once-slammed-governments-new-behavioural-economics-20151123-gl5q11.html
    Peter Martin is of a view that this government will not raise the GST and that it will target superannuation excesses.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tax-white-paper-will-target-superannuation-not-the-gst-20151122-gl4xbc.html

  20. Section 2 . . .

    Meanwhile Michael Pascoe laments the lack of determination to ensure employers do pay in the full superannuation guarantees for their employees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-the-ato-is-the-best-choice-to-collect-superannuation-20151123-gl5g0o.html
    More “productivity” and “flexibility” improvements?
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/finance/companies-forcing-employees-to-become-sham-contractors-beware-20151123-gl5gnd.html
    The Guardian refers here to a list of companies getting special treatment from the ATO. It will continue if the senate caves in.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/23/tax-transparency-full-list-of-exempt-companies-revealed-as-senate-battle-looms
    The drug wreaking more havoc than ice in our emergency departments.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/alcohol-sending-hundreds-of-thousands-into-hospital-each-year-acem-study-20151123-gl5tgx.html
    Greg Jericho explains that there is such a thing as the wrong kind of growth.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/nov/23/there-is-such-a-thing-as-wrong-kind-of-growth-just-look-at-western-australia
    Harvey Norman shareholders are set to have another attempt to vote down the remuneration proposal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/harvey-norman-facing-second-strike-and-possible-board-spill-20151123-gl5o24.html
    Flying while Muslim – a new exercise in bigotry in the US.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/23/muslim-sounding-names-add-air-travel-indignity-bigotry-flying-southwest-airlines
    Stephen Koukoulas tells us that a punitive approach to restraining welfare costs is lazy and short sighted.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/punitive-approach-to-restraining-welfare-costs-lazy-and-short-sighted.html
    Bob Ellis has a good jab here at Kevin Andrews and Scott Morrison.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/11/23/andrews-of-mesopotamia/
    Peter Wicks has a look at the Reclaim Australia mob.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/wouldnt-it-be-nice-appeasing-the-refugees-and-the-bigots/

  21. Section 3 . . . incorporating Cartoon Corner.

    The New Matilda asks what we learned from the Reclaim Australia rallies.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/11/23/comic-and-terrifying-in-equal-measure-what-we-learned-from-the-reclaim-australia-rallies/
    The Independent Australia gives a well-earned and deserved slap at the senate and its “inquiry” into wind farm infrasound.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/what-next–an-inquiry-into-infrasound-from-trees-waves-and-air-conditioners,8410
    Bruce Petty with an insight into the difficulty in dealing with the Islam issue.

    Cathy Wilcox takes us into the lounge room with disaffected Liberals.

    Ron Tandberg gives us a new climate change metric.

    BRILLIANT work from David Pope!

    Mark Knight has Andrews in a spin over dealing with the taxi industry.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ff388367eccaa2fa5f2a7ddef46a282b?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    John Kudelka drops some special boots on the ground.

    David Rowe is suggesting Turnbull may have a little bit of a Mal Brough problem.

  22. Some musings on this Newspoll – and I stress, they are only musings..

    Posters have suggested that a couple of recent polls factored in a post-Paris bounce. Yet Newspoll, which is definitely post Paris, hasn’t moved.

    So – sans Paris – would it have been going down? Or has Turnbull simply got as many votes as he’s going to get?

    2. We’ve just seen a shocker of a poll out of Queensland (one poll, folks. I wouldn’t get over excited). Yet these Newspoll figures don’t reflect that, either. For Queensland to be truly that shocking and yet this Newspoll to hold true, the Labor party must be doing much better elsewhere.

    — I would suggest the Queensland poll is a bit dodgy, given the reversal of the State government’s vote. It might be I’m missing something, not being a banana bender, but I’m unaware of any reason why QLD Labor should suddenly see a reversal in the polls. (One poll, remember).

    IF there was a statistical glitch, which meant that the poll overly favoured the Coalition, you would expect bad polling for Labor at both State and Federal levels, given that the same people were being asked.

    I know I’m being a bit Comical Ali here, but I think these are issues at least worth poking a stick at.

  23. Nicholas and BBS

    I do not think you understood what I was saying last night.

    You have every right to comment on what Shorten or Turnbull or DeNatali do or say. That is fine.

    What I find irritating is when people who are actively anti-Labor try to say that labor should remove Shorten etc.

  26. Re the lauding of Plibersek last night – exactly the same kinds of posts were being made about Gillard before she became leader. Indeed, she was being praised for almost exactly the same qualities.

    Indeed, both here and in the media, many of the attributes Gillard was praised for as Deputy suddenly became liabilities as leader.

    Even physical qualities – such as her ‘big arse’ – were seen as positives before and negatives afterwards.

  28. Zoomster

    The State TPP is pretty off the planet because it averages out the preferences over three elections. Now this may be statistically sensible, but it is not very informative in the real world.

    In Qld the 2012 election saw about 40% of Green voters not giving a second preference and of those who did give a preference I think just 60% went to labor (I will need to check those figures) but there was a massive swing back in 2015 so that 90% of Green voters allocated preferences and 85% went to labor.

    Given this huge change in behaviour, any poll that tries to average results is very likely off the planet.

  31. I find the faux concern for the Labor Party’s prospects under Bill Shorten in the run-up to the next election, by Conservative Crank and the other Liberal Luvvies truly vomit-inducing. Their faux concern is tissue thin and conceals a true malevolence that wishes to consign Labor to ultimate irrelevance as a political force so that the Coalition may settle in for another 20-something years of Menzian-like reign.

    Well I was alive for a little bit of that and I remember what a dispiriting and tawdry little backwater Australia was. Social stratification, stifling conformity, Wage stagnation, and social services that were a bastardised version of noblesse oblige, where the indigent were doled out alms by the churches and services by kindly and condescending rich professionals. It’s the sort of Income Apartheid that only the Labor Party and The Greens are willing to tackle.

    I mean, really, think about it, who are the only ones who can afford to be ‘an agile entrepeneurial disruptive start-up’? Those kids from Middle and Upper Middle Class families who have gone to the Private Schools and been through the ‘Start Up A Business’ courses and then on to Uni to do their Business degrees, possibly on to Harvard School of Business. Think that the average child of an average family struggling to make ends meet week to week can aspire in such a way? Possibly. Maybe. In very rare cases. Mostly they will just be happy to snag a trade apprenticeship, or any sort of job at all really, probably of the low-paying, easily-exploitable worker kind.

    It’s only Labor(and The Greens, I think 😉 ) who wants to ‘disrupt’ that cosy scenario on behalf of society’s weakest members.

    That’ll do me.

    And don’t come back at me with the ‘Corrupt Union Bosses’ line, it won’t wash. There’s an absolute surfeit of corrupt capitalists and bosses that far outweighs them.

    No, 53-47 will do me and Labor will do me. They actually DO have policies ESJ, which are well-articulated & thoughtful and they will keep rolling them out steadily until the election. Plus, when they finally see the whites of Turnbull’s eyes in a policy sense, after the ‘Innovation’ package, Tax proposals, finally, and MYEFO are released towards the end of the year, then they will be able to pull them apart for analysis. Well, of course, that is all conditional on whether the Liberals will have the guts to lay out their policies before the election this time.

    That should at least bring us back to a 52-48 scenario, from where, as Tony Abbott famously said about Labor, in the election contest, they are beatable. Ditto your mob.

    As Shane Wright, a CPG member whose opinions I trust said when talking to Marius Benson this morning on Newsradio, these sort of Newspoll figures for Turnbull are exactly the same as those that a new government gets after an election win but before they have actually had to make any hard policy decisions and put them before the electorate.

    There have been a few policy tweaks and the low-hanging fruit has been picked off by Turnbull. That’s all so far.

    So if you think this political Icarus can stay aloft and keep flying near the golden light of the sun after he has to come down to earth for a bit and start making hard calls, then I have a bridge you might be interested in.

    For one thing I do know, the Menzian environment eventually became so obviously an embarrassment to people on both sides of the social divide that they could no longer support it in good conscience. That much in Australia, hasn’t changed.

    Labor won’t be changing leaders either. They want to project stability. There will be a contest for the leadership, if necessary, after the election. Labor sticks to the rules. It’s the Liberals who you can’t trust do it.

  32. Zoomster

    I think that while a person is popular and held in high regard, people do not notice littel personal quirks.

    Once someone is in the public eye and start to do things some do not like, little characteristics start to niggle and reinforce dislike. Bit like relationships. Newly in-love couples do not notice how the toothpaste is squeezed but as love dies the toothpaste or hairs insink become “issues”

  34. zoomster,
    I saw the interview with the Queensland Environment Minister on Lateline last night. He actually thoughtfully and at length answered Hayden Cooper’s questions. Unlike Liberal Ministers who just trot out the Talking Points of the day no matter what the question is. Maybe that’s what Labor is doing wrong? 😉

  35. C@tmomma

    Please don’t leave again (kissy emoticon). Even if I don’t acknowledge each one, your posts are invaluable and very bracing.

  36. Turnbull having a honeymoon period and also getting a rallying effect from paris. Febuary will give us a look at the status quo

  38. @ zoomster (72) – While I would like for it to imply post-Turnbull, I don’t think so.

    I think the reason Turnbull, unlike all Tories ever, did not receive a poll boost, is because he did not make the same speech that all Tories make under this circumstance, about how all foreign people are evil and how only the right can protect you from them.

  39. Some truly delusional stuff on the Newspoll today guys. Every time I think you guys can’t dig any deeper into the well of denial you go that little bit further. When does it stop? When Shorten is under 10%?

  44. There’s nothing like a perpetual “imminent” attack to feed the stand-up jocks from all the television networks with endless terror stories.

    No matter that it’s all the same story, all the time, day after day. The studio anchors keep asking the live cross reporters if there’s any new news. There never is.

    THIS IS NOT NEWS.

  46. Cat momma

    I was alive for much of the Menzies era. You paint a rather biased picture. Raised in a dyed in the wool Labor household, there was no Menzies love but you must recognise that that the reason he lasted so long was that by and large there was prosperity. (The exception being 1961 which Menzies very nearly lost because there was a recession (credit squeeze it was called)- Unemplyment must have reach the dizzy heights of 3%.

    Wages did grow! There was a quite generous unemployment “welfare” payment and widows, the aged and the disabled had pensions much like today. The only big change has been single mothers pensions. There was much much less divorce so no many “supporting mothers” benefits needed.

    University education was FREE for 80% of kids. It was a Chiefly initiative, but Menzies kept it. Sure not so many went to Uni but if you did get to go chance were that you were on a Commonwealth, teachers or work related scholarship. Of a group of perhaps 50 kids in my Science course that I knew well enough to discuss such matters only 1 was fee paying. This was simply because his academic grades were low – he was a lazy lad.

    Home mortgages were 3%!!!!!!!. Buying a house was the normal thing for a young couple (very young) often 22/19. The couple would save a deposit of 25% of the home cost and then run down to the bank and get a loan based on the MALE ONLY income. The first year of the mortgage would be tough and the couple would lack curtains and mod cons, but after 3-5 years they would be comfortably able to pay the mortgage.

    Working hours were shorter. Men (and it was mostly men) actually left the office at 5PM arriving home before 6PM in time for dinner or at 6:30 if they went to the pub for the after work swill. At 7:30 after the kids were fed and in bed, Dad or Mum had time to go to a meeting – ALP, Church, swimming club or whatever.

    Food especially meat was much, much cheaper.

    Is it any wonder that Menzies survived so long! Remember that McMahon lost the election because unemplyment was 2%. I can recall the concerned conversations about the electoral impact of such a very high rate. Makes me want to cry when I see what we have now.

  47. Menzies boasted in his election speech circa 1960 that his government had increased unemployment benefits to 50% of the average wage.
    A very different Liberal to the ones we see today.

  48. [Working hours were shorter..]

    Ah. That explains why (as a treat) I was allowed to stay up to 9 pm on Friday nights so I could actually see my father…

  49. daretotread,
    Thank you for your thoughtful contribution. 🙂
    As the daughter of a mother who became a Single Mum, having scrimped and saved to pay for an expensive divorce in order to get away from an abusive husband, I guess my views have been coloured by my personal experiences.

    As far as your University studies and buddies went I think I can safely say that I remember that even the Scholarship students came from Middle Class families, as they may not have had to pay Uni Fees but they did need to have a supportive family. Many smart, Working Class students (well maybe a very, very few), never got the chance to go to Uni because they had to get a job after high school. Which they left at 15. Their parents couldn’t afford to keep supporting them. Nor could they support themselves too well as it was a time even before Late Night Shopping!
    That’s why Whitlam’s Tertiary Education changes were so transformative to Australia. No more Tertiary Education Apartheid (with a few token po’ kids on Scholarships thrown in, and with, I think, some paid accommodation at a Residential College and a Living Allowance).

    It’s also why I will campaign to the death against the Coalition’s plans for Tertiary Education. It’s just Groundhog Day all over again!

  50. Cat Momma

    I agree totally about the school stuff. Your family first needed to be comfortable enough to keep you at school for the extra 2 years.

    In NSW at least once you got those last 2/3 years school, kids from struggling failies had the Teachers college option which paid very well and was enough to make sure kids could contribute to thieir families.

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