Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, although Bill Shorten’s position on preferred prime minister continues to deteriorate.

The latest result from Newspoll, featured in tomorrow’s Australian, records the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 46%, Labor is down one to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 11%. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings eclipse last fortnight’s personal best with a four-point increase in approval to 60% and a two-point drop in disapproval to 22%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 26% and steady at 57%, but he has fallen further behind on preferred prime minister, from 61-18 to 64-15. The poll was conducted online and by automated phone polling between Thursday to Sunday, from a sample of 1573.

A first tranche from the results from the poll published yesterday focused on Syria and terrorism. On committing ground troops to Syria, 42% were supportive and 45% opposed; on refugees, 22% took the liberal (“should take more than 12,000”) and 44% the conservative (“should take fewer than 12,000”) position, while 27% opted for neutral (“12,000 is about right”); and 52% rejected the notion that priority should be given to Christians from Syria, with 41% in support. Seventy-six per cent considered it likely or higher that Islamic State would carry out a large-scale terrorist attack in Australia, including 24% for inevitable and 23% for very likely. Sixty-five per cent felt the Muslim community “should be doing more” in condemning terrorist attacks, with only 20% opting for “currently doing enough”, and 66% felt Muslims should be doing more to integrate, compared with 21% for currently doing enough.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 44%, Labor to 35% – with the balance being washed out in rounding, as the Greens and Palmer United stay steady on 10% and 1%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is steady at 52-48. Also:

• Fully 76% of respondents believe the terrorist threat to Australia has increased over the past few years, with only 2% opting for decreased. Thirty-two per cent support increased Australian military involvement in Syria and Iraq compared with 19% for decreased and 28% for make no change, but 45% believe doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 17% for more safe. Eleven per cent ascribe the motivation for the attacks to “reaction to role of western countries in the Middle East” and 29% go for “hatred of western culture and freedoms”, while 46% opt for “both”.

• An occasional question on climate change has 56% ascribing it to human activity and 32% favouring a ”normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, which is respectively unchnagd and up one point on July. Respondents generally considered that Australia was taking more action to address climate change than China, compared with somewhat less for the United States and a lot less for European countries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. I was at a meeting of my local Labor Party Branch tonight and not one word was said about the job Bill Shorten is doing as LOTO. No one seemed down about the polls being what they are right now either and everyone believes the Coalition are eminently beatable in the election next year. So there!

  2. [To be fair to Latham I don’t think he’s a lemming when he blindly accepted his own leadership]

    How did it go for him … falling of a cliff would have been better …

  3. [“If I read the graph right, post 1980 smoking rates fall quicker under a Labor Govt than a Liberal Govt”]

    Actually if you read the graph correctly, people smoke more when they are poor… which is why it was a natural downwards trend for decades but spiked up in the early 1990’s when everyone lost their jobs under Labor

  4. [Looks pretty linear to me mate… maybe it’s time to get the prescription changed on those spectacles]
    So truthie, why didn’t the natural decline trend in smoking apply from 1959 to 1970’s? You know, the period before anti-smoking measures started to be implemented.

  5. AussieAchmed, 950

    The idea that gender and sexuality studies are irrelevant is not true especially in a DV context and as DV is a devastating prospect every angle should be examined to help those affected, and the parliament as a whole is helping this by including this among other ways to combat DV

  6. True Blue

    I’m not quite sure I buy that reading of the data, if anything the trend of smoke sales has been falling, if anything the anti smoking campaign picked up speed during the 1990s

  7. When things are affluent we drink more and when we drink more we smoke more. That explains the trend during the Howard years.

    When things in the economy we sit in the corner and cry a lot and drink and smoke less. That explains the falling trend during periods of Labor government.

    I wonder if Mumbles would write an article about my theory on the statistical link between political rules and smoking?

  8. Extreme Greens of a small irrelevent local council vote against letting refugees stay in their local area… demanding that it have a statement condemning offshore processing by the Federal Government.

    Council then has a seperate vote on ending mandatory detention… Greens vote AGAINST the motion.

    And Fairfax media has the Gall to call the local rabble protesting against the centre the “extremists”.

    Seriously you can’t make this stuff up…

  9. [Seriously you can’t make this stuff up…]

    They are the masters of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory … must be a martyr thing, which is ironic seeing how much that hate all faith …

  10. [“When things are affluent we drink more and when we drink more we smoke more. That explains the trend during the Howard years. “]

    No… the analysis on the website I linked to explains it is mainly unemployed, the poor and Aboriginal people who smoke the most.

    If you are in a low socioeconomic area you are 3 times more likely to smoke than someone from a high income area.

  11. Indigo Shire National Party Mayor nominates Green Cr & federal candidate to replace him, not Liberal Cr who is also a supporter of Sophie Mirabella

    More on the Mayor stepping down.

    Mayor was touted as possible National candidate for Indi in Feb.

  12. True Blue

    Yes if you are in a low socioeconomic area the rate of smoking is higher but that would cover areas not necessarily covered by your earlier observation

  13. [Indi Greens’ candidate Jenny O’Connor may have to relinquish her endorsement if she wins tomorrow’s Indigo Shire Council mayoral election.

    Ms O’Connor, a Beechworth nurse, decided this morning to contest the mayoralty following a decision by Bernard Gaffney not to seek re-election.]

    Jenny O’Connor is very impressive. After hearing her speak at a candidates forum I voted for her in the Vic Greens 2013 Senate preselection which Janet Rice won and then subsequently was elected to federal parliament.

  14. WWP
    […must be a martyr thing, which is ironic seeing how much that hate all faith …]

    The ‘Godless Greens’: Pernicious myth or political reality?
    Professor Marion Maddox, ABC Religion and Ethics 27 Aug 2013

    [Church and political leaders have portrayed the Australian Greens as anti-Christian, pagan or atheist. But this doesn’t fit with the religious convictions of their candidates or the party’s history.]

  15. davidwh@938

    Kevin provides balanced and well though out analysis despite his left bias.

    Sorry Kevin

    I don’t have a consistent left bias. There are certain issues on which my views line up strongly with the left but of all political issues they’re a minority.

    I do have a bias against what I call “political religiosity”, but that applies to Shoppies in the ALP as well as Abbott/Abetz/Bernardi/Andrews types within the Liberals. Thinking of all the outright lasts on my ballot paper down the years I reckon religious ALP candidates have scored as many of them as Liberals.

    By the way I once appeared on the same debating team as Senator Abetz, with a common cause of smashing (effectively) compulsory student unionism!

  16. [ Kevin provides balanced and well though out analysis despite his left bias. ]

    And here’s me thinking he is just one of the nicer RWNJobbies around?? 🙂

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