Galaxy: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland

Galaxy’s poll for the Courier-Mail finds support for the Queensland Labor government slumping – though arguably not as low as the headline two-party figure suggests.

We now have a result on state voting intention from the Galaxy poll conducted for the Courier-Mail on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it records a substantial shift to the Liberal National Party on voting intention since the last such poll in August. The LNP is up three points to 42% on the primary vote (if I’m reading the chart correctly), with Labor down the same amount to 37% and the Greens off a point to 9%. Conversion of primary vote numbers to two-party preferred in Queensland is a fraught effort, which Galaxy approaches through a composite of preference flows from the last three elections. This produces a headline figure of 51-49 to the LNP, compared with a 52-48 lead to Labor last time. However, if you simply applied the preference flow from the election in January, which was dramatically favourable to Labor, the result would probably have come out reversed, and Labor’s lead in August would have been more like 54-46. Despite the shift on voting intention, the poll actually records an increase in Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over Lawrence Springborg on preferred premier, from 52-32 to 54-26. This suggests the result should perhaps be understood as part of a national trend in which the surge to the Coalition on federal voting intention is having secondary effects at state level.

More from me on the state of play in Queensland in a paywalled article for Crikey on Friday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. I get 50.6% 2PP to Labor by 2015-election preferences.

    This one looks like a particularly blatant case of an artificial Turnbull bounce because Palaszczuk has a netsat of +36 which is up seven points. I can’t see that sort of bounce lasting to a future state election.

    The other possible interpretation is that voters like the Premier, but don’t like her government that much, but were persistently saying they did like it because they didn’t like Abbott.

  2. “Galaxy approaches through a composite of preference flows from the last three elections”

    Using preference flows from the 2012 election will skew the results to the LNP but will not give an accurate reading on voting intention. Polls at the last state election incorrectly predicted a LNP win, because they used the 2012 sample preference distribution.

    The 2012 election was such an aberration, that polling company’s would be wise to take that into account when working preference distribution.

  3. Also the LNP internal polling knows that 2012 polling is an aberration. Their internal polling told them they were going to lose, two days before the last state election.

    Which means the Courier Mail’s assessment that this poll will buy Lawrence Springborg more time may not be accurate.

  4. I think Palaszczuk PP stats are a reflection of the opposition leader rather than any satisfaction with the non-performance of the government. The LNP did themselves no favours by going back to the past in electing their leadership.

  5. 1. The Qld police minister is a shocker … 2. Allowing union reps to lobby at workers desks … Votes are easy to lose when the best interests of the people are not put first …

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