We now have a result on state voting intention from the Galaxy poll conducted for the Courier-Mail on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it records a substantial shift to the Liberal National Party on voting intention since the last such poll in August. The LNP is up three points to 42% on the primary vote (if I’m reading the chart correctly), with Labor down the same amount to 37% and the Greens off a point to 9%. Conversion of primary vote numbers to two-party preferred in Queensland is a fraught effort, which Galaxy approaches through a composite of preference flows from the last three elections. This produces a headline figure of 51-49 to the LNP, compared with a 52-48 lead to Labor last time. However, if you simply applied the preference flow from the election in January, which was dramatically favourable to Labor, the result would probably have come out reversed, and Labor’s lead in August would have been more like 54-46. Despite the shift on voting intention, the poll actually records an increase in Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over Lawrence Springborg on preferred premier, from 52-32 to 54-26. This suggests the result should perhaps be understood as part of a national trend in which the surge to the Coalition on federal voting intention is having secondary effects at state level.
More from me on the state of play in Queensland in a paywalled article for Crikey on Friday.