Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Steady as she goes from Newspoll, although Bill Shorten’s position on preferred prime minister continues to deteriorate.

The latest result from Newspoll, featured in tomorrow’s Australian, records the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 46%, Labor is down one to 33%, and the Greens are up one to 11%. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings eclipse last fortnight’s personal best with a four-point increase in approval to 60% and a two-point drop in disapproval to 22%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 26% and steady at 57%, but he has fallen further behind on preferred prime minister, from 61-18 to 64-15. The poll was conducted online and by automated phone polling between Thursday to Sunday, from a sample of 1573.

A first tranche from the results from the poll published yesterday focused on Syria and terrorism. On committing ground troops to Syria, 42% were supportive and 45% opposed; on refugees, 22% took the liberal (“should take more than 12,000”) and 44% the conservative (“should take fewer than 12,000”) position, while 27% opted for neutral (“12,000 is about right”); and 52% rejected the notion that priority should be given to Christians from Syria, with 41% in support. Seventy-six per cent considered it likely or higher that Islamic State would carry out a large-scale terrorist attack in Australia, including 24% for inevitable and 23% for very likely. Sixty-five per cent felt the Muslim community “should be doing more” in condemning terrorist attacks, with only 20% opting for “currently doing enough”, and 66% felt Muslims should be doing more to integrate, compared with 21% for currently doing enough.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 44%, Labor to 35% – with the balance being washed out in rounding, as the Greens and Palmer United stay steady on 10% and 1%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is steady at 52-48. Also:

• Fully 76% of respondents believe the terrorist threat to Australia has increased over the past few years, with only 2% opting for decreased. Thirty-two per cent support increased Australian military involvement in Syria and Iraq compared with 19% for decreased and 28% for make no change, but 45% believe doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, compared with 17% for more safe. Eleven per cent ascribe the motivation for the attacks to “reaction to role of western countries in the Middle East” and 29% go for “hatred of western culture and freedoms”, while 46% opt for “both”.

• An occasional question on climate change has 56% ascribing it to human activity and 32% favouring a ”normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, which is respectively unchnagd and up one point on July. Respondents generally considered that Australia was taking more action to address climate change than China, compared with somewhat less for the United States and a lot less for European countries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  5. Malcolm would have to develop some policies first. At last count, he hasn’t got any.

    Might be one of the reasons for his popularity. All things to all people etc.

  6. from Oz just now:

    Labor is facing the same devastating defeat that it suffered at the last federal election, as Bill Shorten’s standing with voters as the alternative prime minister has tumbled to the lowest level for any ALP leader in more than a decade.

    The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian, ­reveals Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 33 per cent. Support for the opposition has slumped six points since Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott 10 weeks ago and is back to the same level as the 2013 poll, which was the ALP’s worst election result in 80 years.

    At the same time Mr Turnbull has increased his status as the preferred prime minister over Mr Shorten to enjoy a massive 49-point advantage, leading by 64 per cent to 15 per cent.

  7. Labor doesn’t have a problem .. Can’t be too long now before Turnbull starts going down and everyone truly appreciates what Bill Shorten has to offer… Until then we just wait and hope there isn’t any election and if there is then the Greens hold up their votes in the Senate so at least there is some opposition…

  8. His support of 15 per cent is down three points to be the lowest for any Labor leader since Simon Crean slumped to 14 per cent in November 2003 in the final ­Newspoll before he stood down as leader. It is the second lowest ­result for any Labor leader in Newspoll history going back to 1987 and dramatically lower than the worst results achieved by ­Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd when Mr Shorten helped remove them as leaders. Despite Mr Shorten’s vow 12 months ago that 2015 would be Labor’s “year of ideas”, voters have marked down the ALP since the demise of Mr Abbott.

  10. Seriously folks: get Shorto, Albo, Wongers, Plibbers and Burkey out there tomorrow to ask repeatedly…

    “Does Malcolm have any policies?”
    “What are they?”

  11. Just saw we have a new thread arfter posting a longish rant. I’ll repeat here. Feel free to skip:

    [933
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, November 23, 2015 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    ESJ – I don’t think you’re making any converts to whatever it is you believe in.

    What is that, by the way? Being against Bill Shorten, Labor and Unions are principles in the same sense that ‘not playing golf’ is a hobby. I recall another poster here who put up convincing evidence that you are a disillusioned ex-Labor insider.

    Now I find the Liberals’ plans for the future of this country – basically the IPAs 75+25 points, the 2014 Budget and Rupert’s agenda – pretty much unacceptable. Labor believes in the Australian settlement, the Coaltion doesn’t. Labor, Shorten and the Unions are not perfect but I’m not voting for the Far Right nutjobs who call themselves ‘Liberals’ while waiting for Labor (or the Greens) to attain perfection. It wouldn’t matter if Labor was lead by Donald Duck as far as I’m concerned. At elections, we vote for the future of the country, not alternate teams of technocrats.

    Corrupt unions? No more so than businees, probably a lot less. No union robbed savers or retirees of their life savings. Coded messages to racists? I don’t accept that proposition and in any case the ‘Liberals’ these days hardly bother with the coding.

    So what do you believe in? Social conservatism? Free Markets? Abolishing the social safety net and minimum wage, replacing them with low-paid work to reduce taxes and promote enterprise?

    Enlighten us.]

  12. I liked Vourafakis last sentence on QandA tonight.

    Mr Turnbull would best serve the nation by leading a Labor Green Coalition government.

  14. TPOG

    No Vourafakis has not. From the start to the finish of QandA Vourafakis said Turnbull will only succeed if he takes his party with him.

    I got the impression Mr Vourafakis does not expect Turnbull to do that.

  16. People asking about Plibersek being leader need to get a grip. Even the Greens tore down their woman leader and installed a blue tie wearing hack.

  17. [Mr Turnbull would best serve the nation by leading a Labor Green Coalition government.]

    Seriously? He’s a bag of wind. So far he has not demonstrated a lot of leadership. He may one day, but to date all he has done is score popular victories taking out low hanging fruit like doing away with knighthoods, accepting that public transport is actually infrastructure too, and pulls back from a massive illogical hatred for renewable energy. For everything hard, he has so far conceded to the right, although he makes noises about intending to change things when he can get cabinet to agree.

    Labor would do better to lose under Shorten than to win under Turnbull. If he wins the next election, I bet he won’t last out the term.

  19. Come on. This notion that we can’t handle women leaders is just too bleak.

    Let’s not revisit the reasons Gillard went under. Suffice to say Plibersek is a very different politician most notably, I think, in terms of her communication powers.

  22. The last thing the ALP needs to do is change leader.

    The ALP’s still pulling 47% 2PP during a major honeymoon – which is just two Talcum stuff-ups from level.

    Or one Gretch, if you prefer imperial measures.

  23. [No union robbed savers or retirees of their life savings.]

    And they are certainly not ripping off employees by not paying their superannuation entitlements to the tune of $2 billion a year. The only concern that this government has about unions ripping off their members is that there is less money in the pool for business interests to rip off their workers.

  24. [It was obviously a tongue in cheek comment about Turnbull. I suspect quite a few comments were.]

    Maybe Guytaur. But I prefer Geraldine Brooks’s comment after she noted she was at uni with Turnbull that while Turnbull has achieved his lifetime ambition, it remains to be seen whether he helps us achieve ours.

  26. confessions, 16

    [People asking about Plibersek being leader need to get a grip. Even the Greens tore down their woman leader and installed a blue tie wearing hack.]

    This is riddled with factual bulletholes.
    -Plibersek would make a great ALP leader, and people like her intrinsically more than Shorten.
    -We have no reason to doubt the ability of female leaders to lead – Queensland, widely touted as “that really conservative bit of Australia” has had female leaders win two of the three last elections – both of which were against a male.
    -The Greens leadership change in 2015 was in no way a “tearing down” of Milne
    -Di Natale is not a hack, nor does he display a preference for blue ties, his preferred colour seems to be black judging from Google Images

  27. [“Does Malcolm have any policies?”
    “What are they?”]

    That’s not fair. Malcolm has only been Prime Minister for two months. It’s not as if he leads a party that has been in government for the last two years. Oh……

  29. TPOF

    Vourafakis and Brooks were reinforcing each other for the whole programme. In fact Albrechtson was very subdued compared to her previous appearances.

    A sign of how good they the non politicians on the panel were.
    Mr Albanese did not say much but then it was all being said. When he did speak he was also good.

    It was just Hunt that was his usual self bringing the programme down in quality.

  30. Airlines@26

    confessions, 16

    People asking about Plibersek being leader need to get a grip. Even the Greens tore down their woman leader and installed a blue tie wearing hack.


    This is riddled with factual bulletholes.
    -Plibersek would make a great ALP leader, and people like her intrinsically more than Shorten.
    -We have no reason to doubt the ability of female leaders to lead – Queensland, widely touted as “that really conservative bit of Australia” has had female leaders win two of the three last elections – both of which were against a male.
    -The Greens leadership change in 2015 was in no way a “tearing down” of Milne
    -Di Natale is not a hack, nor does he display a preference for blue ties, his preferred colour seems to be black judging from Google Images

    What you say is true.

    Gillard was a uniquely unpopular leader, not because she was a woman, but because she was… Gillard!

    There was just something about her that people did not warm to.

  33. @MarkDiStef: Guardian publishes the 1500 Aussie companies exempt from filing tax records… one owned by Malcolm Turnbull https://t.co/5YeD7A6mdN

    “@MarkDiStef: Government is trying to get the secrecy provisions re-instated. So Turnbull will write to ASIC to have his company withdrawn from the list.”

  34. guytaur@29

    TPOF

    Vourafakis and Brooks were reinforcing each other for the whole programme. In fact Albrechtson was very subdued compared to her previous appearances.
    —

    She was so subdued she was invisible and inaudible.

  36. Has anyone asked Tanya Plibersek whether she would like to replace Bill Shorten as leader before the next election? Somehow, I doubt whether she has the slightest interest in (a) dumping the current leader and reminding everyone of Labor’s unhappy history of dumping leaders; and (b) screwing up her home life in order to achieve a guaranteed electoral loss against Malcolm Turnbull.

  39. [This is riddled with factual bulletholes]

    Not really.

    Rudd made Gillard’s leadership untenable. Abbott profited.

    Milne was a genuine Green but faced her own destabilising. There are no factual bullet holes, just reality.

  40. guytaur @ 29

    Sloane stood out for making a snide and unprovoked remark to Albanese. Fortunately everyone just glared at her.

    And I really like Sammy J’s song at the end much more than I thought I would.

  41. [That’s not fair. Malcolm has only been Prime Minister for two months. It’s not as if he leads a party that has been in government for the last two years. Oh……]

    Bingo.

  42. TPOF

    I enjoyed most of it. Agree with you about Sloan I remember that.

    I might have enjoyed it more because this

    “@guytaur: Support the Kurds who seem to be only effective on ground local fighting force #QandA”

    was broadcast : )

  43. Yanis Varoufakis was consistently excellent throughout the program. Made our pollies look like rank amateurs. Pity Judith Sloane was allowed to speak.

  44. bemused, 30

    Agreed – there are various female leaders that retained their popularity (think Carmen Lawrence etc) where Gillard didn’t.

  46. I don’t normally put a lot of weight in PPM but at 15% that’s got to be a boat anchor on the 2PP.

    Have VICPOL charged him with a driving offence for his car accident yet?

  50. [ Malcolm would have to develop some policies first. At last count, he hasn’t got any. ]

    That’s mean and just wrong. The beautiful man has all of Tony’s policies of course…..and there are people in the party that will make sure he keeps them don’t you worry about that. \

    [ Sloane stood out for making a snide and unprovoked remark to Albanese. ]

    She is the toxic sludge from the bottom of the economics commentary pond. Has no ideas not fed to her by the Libs.

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