BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

The weekly poll aggregate reading now has the Coalition well ahead of its position at the 2013 election, with Bill Shorten’s personal ratings continuing to sink.

This week’s big result for the Coalition from Ipsos has had a solid impact on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which shifts a further 0.9% on two-party preferred and four seats on the seat projection, including one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. The two other pollsters to report this week were essentially stable, but both are being downweighted by the model owing to their idiosyncrasies: Morgan for having the Coalition several points higher than the rest of the pack, and Essential Research for its characteristically sedate reading of the recent Coalition surge. New leadership ratings from Ipsos push Bill Shorten’s personal rating to a new low with no sign of the downward trend abating, whereas Malcolm Turnbull now appears to have reached his equilibrium point.

Other news from around the place:

• Sharon Bird, Labor’s member for the safe seat of Cunningham in the Illawarra region, faces a preselection challenge from Misha Zelinsky, described by Nick McLaren of the ABC as “an official with the Australian Workers Union, former NSW government policy advisor and criminal defence lawyer”.

• The Liberal National Party has preselected Nic Monsour, managing director of a consultancy and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman, as its candidate for the southern Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett gained for Labor in 2007 and did well to retain in 2013.

• The Nationals have preselected Marty Corboy, a manager at a Wangaratta stockfeed business, as its candidate for the seat of northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal member Sophie Mirabella, who will also be a candidate again.

• Georgie Burgess of the Launceston Examiner reports that the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate preselection is pitting incumbents Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry against Sally Chandler, a trade expert who was pipped at the post by Jacqui Lambie as the Liberals’ number three candidate in 2013, and Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Will Hodgman.

• Roy Morgan had one of its occasional polls on the biggest issues facing the country and the world. Terrorism and war came back to life late last year after a long quiet spell, though more as an international than a local issue. The economy is on a long upward trend at local level, but the terrorism and war resurgence looks to have taken the edge off it in the international result. The results are from a phone poll of 647 respondents conducted a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,131 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  7. At the end of the ABC report:

    [Mr Brough was also one of three frontbenchers in the Turnbull Government named in a search warrant by AFP, along with Industry Minister Christopher Pyne and Assistant Minister for Innovation Wyatt Roy.]

  8. I would not be surprised if the AFP has run the case against Ashby, Brough et al past an experienced silk (to cover their arses, of course). Doesn’t sound like he’s said it’s doomed.

  9. Benedict Coyne ‏@bennarama 10m10 minutes ago Brisbane, Queensland

    Breaking: Brandis suggests Australians must embrace totalitarianism in order to maintain democracy #auspol

  10. Pegasus

    Re Telstra printed bills at $3.20

    I am sitting here waiting for my Telstra business manager to show up and reading PB. My discussion with him will revolve around the absurdly over priced, overextended and flaky mobile broadband service I am forced to run a business on in a regional area, costing thousands in lost productivity and when the Tony Abbott inspired f**k up of an NBN might finally be available.

    And now the insidious ant-democratic bastard product of the freemarket ideology of John Howard – Telstra – is about to up its fees by a couple of bucks for printed invoices so that dumb punters who subscribe to their service will no longer have the ability or the audacity to inspect and query the detail of their monthly theft because it is too hard to find your bloody bill online because of all the barriers they deliberately erect -such as changing passwords, jumping thru hoops and broken links on their crap website.

    F**k them.

    The manager has just rung he will be here in 15 minutes..

  11. Another point for the pessimists about Labor for the election.

    Still Medicare under threat.

    Still cuts to pensions

    Still going after citizens rights with things like the Green lawfare legislation.

    The list goes on.

  12. RE post at 59:

    They are wanting to have loopholes in the encryption services or totally outban encryption services, their has been recent increase attacks by goverment agencies to attack encryption services.

  15. Richard Denniss firing on all cylinders – full article worth reading –

    [ John Howard paid $20 billion over four years to get his GST through, and of course Julia Gillard’s “great big new tax” cost the budget dearly as all the free permits and cash compensation ..

    Since the Liberals were elected in 2013, the budget deficit has grown from $30 billion to $41 billion. With the economy slowing and unemployment rising, such an increase is not an actual economic problem, but for a party that raged against debt and deficits, there is no doubt tax changes which further increase the deficit are a toxic political problem.

    In the last two years the Liberals have shredded 20 years of careful messaging that theirs was the party of “good economic management”.

    …but blowing a Howardesque lump of cash to raise the GST is an unlikely strategy to repair either the budget or the Liberal’s brand.

    …..the Turnbull government is talking about taxing food to fund corporate tax cuts. Ouch!

    BoldLike a flock of seagulls trained to expect a feed from anyone with a bag of chips, the business community has already begun to squawk for their slice of the pie. Cut the corporate tax rate. Cut the top tax rate. Don’t touch our superannuation. Don’t touch our family trusts. Turnbull knows that their gain will be someone else’s pain.

    Then there are the state premiers who are still seething about the plans in the Abbott government’s first budget to cut $80 billion from health and education spending over the coming decade. Abbott’s and Hockey’s strategy was to make the states beg for an increase in the GST.

    And finally, there is the Senate.

    …..Saying you are going to do something, and passing the legislation to do it, are quite different.

    Australia needs tax reform, but we don’t need to overcompensate anybody if we simply close the loopholes and concessions that are bleeding the budget dry. Genuine reform of superannuation, capital gains and perverse subsidies will efficiently and equitably provide tens of billions of dollars worth of extra revenue to spend on the infrastructure and education that the economy really needs.

    …That’s what really scares the conservatives. They know it would be much harder to argue we need to cut services if we were collecting a lot more revenue.

    Richard Denniss is the chief economist at The Australia Institute.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/playing-the-compensation-game-20151118-gl1xcg#ixzz3rsxiXrwt

  17. ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 6m6 minutes ago

    ‘ACOSS believes this bill is likely to lead to an increase in child poverty by taking money away from low income families’: Jacqui Phillips
    0 retweets 0 likes

  20. Mal Brough now under investigation for a serious offence, officially. Cops have raided his home.

    Funny – where are the banner headlines and acres and newsprint?

  22. ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 3m3 minutes ago

    Jacqui Phillips says figures from @WhitefordPeter show combined effect of proposed govt changes = $2,000-$3,000pa cut for single parents

  23. I think what is really lacking in the predictable and somewhat lazy defence of Shorten’s leadership is the fact that he is polling awfully in NSW. For the ALP to do well in 2016 (not even get to a winning position) they should be looking at winning back Reid, Banks and Lindsay. As things presently stand, I am reliably told they are behind in Werriwa, McMahon, Greenaway and Parramatta.

    Turnbull cuts through best in Sydney – particularly multi-cultural Sydney, a city with who has low union membership (under 12pc) and a particularly transient and aspirational population. We also have an insanely popular NSW Liberal Premier.

    Frankly with those dynamics at play, it really isn’t even a fair fight.

  25. WWP re changing leaders
    I disagree. But the replacement must be a substantially better option AND be a devious player. I don’t see anyone who fits the bill….on either count.

  27. [Mal Brough now under investigation for a serious offence, officially. Cops have raided his home.

    I must have missed this.

    Link?]

    It was just on ABC TV news.

  28. mexicanbeemer@41

    Dtt

    According to the all knowledgeable Professor of wisdom Bemused, just proofread it before you post.

    Thank you for that unsolicited endorsement. *grin*

    There are many errors spell checkers don’t pick up.

    Unfortunately the gerbils seem to have disabled the Preview function at present and that makes it a bit harder.

  30. WWP @ 44

    [Labor cannot even contemplate changing leaders. They must take Shorten, for good or bad, to the election.]

    I don’t think anyone who has demanded Bill Shorten go has Labor’s interests in the next election and beyond at heart. They are variously:

    – people who want the Coalition to win at the next election,
    – people who want Labor weakened at the next election so that other parties (esp the Greens) can pick off Labor support
    – people who support a Labor Party that they imagined existed in the past and want Labor to return to that fantasy land in preference to Labor regaining power in the real world of now
    – people who just want to destroy Labor and will use any opportunity to attack the Party
    – people who want to destroy the unions
    – people who have a commercial interest in fomenting Labor leadershit (aka, the Canberra Press Gallery)
    – and people who, though nominally supporting Labor, think that their personal obsessions and personal dislike for Bill Shorten for real or imagined misconduct by him in the past matter more to them than Labor getting into power and reversing the most catastrophic decisions of the Coalition Government since 2013

    Whatever your view of Shorten’s performance, there is simply no better alternative out there for the next election. We can toss names around at will, but none of the people named have a proven track record of leadership, let alone a pre-existing charismatic public presence, to justify changing leaders in the present circumstance, whatever their long term prospects.

    Especially when a combination of Churchill, Hawke, Roosevelt (both) and Menzies could not make a dent in Turnbull’s current popularity – which is all about our relief to again have a Prime Minister who is not an international joke and a domestic threat to the welfare and security of the nation.

    So, I get the dissing of Shorten from those who are to the left and right of Labor. I have less time and respect for the dissing of Shorten from those who purportedly have Labor’s interests at heart and from the professional journalists and ‘editors’ who fancy themselves as players but are really bags of wind.

  31. Long post alert…. Ashbygate.

    A couple of days ago Shellbell indicated that the potential charges against Ashby under section 70(1) of the Crimes Act (essentially the theft and distribution of Slipper’s diary) could be a problem as the charge relates specifically to acts by ‘Commonwealth officers’.

    I gather Shellbell was implying Ashby’s role as a political staffer in Slipper’s office may not constitute a role as a ‘’Commonwealth officer’. Should this be the case, this could put the potential charges against Brough in jeopardy.

    Interesting points so though I’d do a bit of bush lawyering.

    The warrants state the potential charges against Ashby relate to section 70(1) of the Crimes Act 1914 which states:

    (1) A person who, being a Commonwealth officer, publishes or communicates, except to some person to whom he or she is authorized to publish or communicate it, any fact or document which comes to his or her knowledge, or into his or her possession, by virtue of being a Commonwealth officer, and which it is his or her duty not to disclose, shall be guilty of an offence.

    So, a fairly explicit reference to the offence being committed by a Commonwealth officer.

    According to the Minsiterial And Parliamentary website:

    Electorate and personal staff, including senior staff, are employed by their Senator or Member under the Members of Parliament (Staff) Act 1984. The Act enables Senators and Members to employ staff on behalf of the Commonwealth within arrangements approved by the Prime Minister.

    Was Ashby a Commonwealth Officer?

    According to the definitions section of the Crimes Act 1914: “Commonwealth officer ” means a person holding office under, or employed by, the Commonwealth, and includes:

    A list of various employment categories are then listed but the reference to ‘and includes’ I interpret as meaning the supplementary list is not intended to be comprehensive.

    Again, according to the Minsiterial And Parliamentary website:

    The Ministers appoint or engage their employees on behalf of the Commonwealth.

    So, I’d conclude that on this basis it’s pretty clear Ashby is a Commonwealth officer but no doubt I may have missed something.

    Any lawyers CW public servants on PB got a view?

  33. Re Guytaur @48: All those saying Shorten is a dud have obviously not been watching the live pressers.

    Most voters only see short grabs in the mainstream media, accompanied by whatever spin they choose to give it.

  35. Moderate at 73

    [I think what is really lacking in the predictable and somewhat lazy defence of Shorten’s leadership is the fact that he is polling awfully in NSW.]

    Seems to me that your predictable and somewhat lazy attack on Bill Shorten has nothing to say about Bill Shorten. I don’t know which of the categories of bagger you fall into as set out in my post at 80, but I’m sure you feature in there somewhere. Perhaps you are just one of Lorax’s fantasy lemmings. We have a problem – just head for the nearest cliff and jump off (otherwise known as change Labor leaders and bag Bill Shorten so much that either Labor changes leaders or he is so diminished in the public eye that you can say ‘I told you so’. All self-serving egotistical schlock.

  38. Steve777

    [
    Mal Brough now under investigation for a serious offence, officially. Cops have raided his home.

    Funny – where are the banner headlines and acres and newsprint?]

    Where oh Dog is the ‘traditional’ Daily Telegraph Photoshopped front page ?

  39. Rossmore @ 81

    As indicated by another poster earlier, it does not seem possible that a search warrant could be executed unless there was a Commonwealth Officer, for the purpose of the Crimes Act, in the mix. If the central issue is the behaviour of Ashby, then I cannot imagine that the law enforcement authorities would not have ensured that they were fully within the Crimes Act requirements. So that the only question is whether an offence by the target person or persons has been committed.

  40. Mal Brough now under investigation for a serious offence, officially. Cops have raided his home.

    Funny – where are the banner headlines and acres and newsprint?

    Where oh Dog is the ‘traditional’ Daily Telegraph Photoshopped front page ?

    If it makes the front page of the Daily Telegraph, then we’ll know the fix is in, that it’s an Abbott show.

  41. Guytaur

    [All those saying Shorten is a dud have obviously not been watching the live pressers.]

    Most people don’t!

    The majority of the population have other things to do and politics is something they think of around the time of the election.

  43. Rossmore, further to my post at 89, I note that the definition of ‘Commonwealth officer’ in the Crimes Act includes the following:

    [(c) for the purposes of section 70, a person who, although not holding office under, or employed by, the Commonwealth, a Territory or a public authority under the Commonwealth, performs services for or on behalf of the Commonwealth, a Territory or a public authority under the Commonwealth]

    That means that an especially wide net is cast for the purposes of section 70 (the relevant section here) and would include contractors as well as employees. It would certainly include MOPS employed staff, whatever their status for other purposes.

  44. [So that the only question is whether an offence by the target person or persons has been committed.]

    Including associated urgers, like Steve Lewis.

    From memory, the Lewis/Ashby conversation was all on the record at the time. Emails, tweets, texts… the lot.

    Lewis could have had it all buried, except he went on 2GB after a long lunch and bragged about it. Once he’d blown his own cover, confidentiality between journalist and source was a non-issue.

    Pity someone was listening to 2GB at the time, and thought this might have been of interest to Slipper’s legal advisors…

  46. MTBW @ 91

    [Most people don’t!]

    Yep. But any potential Opposition leader at this point in the electoral cycle would have the same problem. The main reason that Abbott started to get traction was because he threw the national interest out the window in a full-on assault against Kevin Rudd and Labor which the press gallery, keen for a reportable contest, did not challenge.

  47. MTBW

    You just said yourself that voters do not engage until the election gets near. Some we know on the actual day of the election.

    This is my point.

  49. TOPF … thanks for that and I agree Commonwelath officer casts a very wide net….

    I hold Shellbell’s lawyerly posts in very high esteem so not sure why he/she saw a potential problem with Ashby being a Çommonwealth officer ….

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