This week’s big result for the Coalition from Ipsos has had a solid impact on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which shifts a further 0.9% on two-party preferred and four seats on the seat projection, including one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. The two other pollsters to report this week were essentially stable, but both are being downweighted by the model owing to their idiosyncrasies: Morgan for having the Coalition several points higher than the rest of the pack, and Essential Research for its characteristically sedate reading of the recent Coalition surge. New leadership ratings from Ipsos push Bill Shorten’s personal rating to a new low with no sign of the downward trend abating, whereas Malcolm Turnbull now appears to have reached his equilibrium point.
Other news from around the place:
• Sharon Bird, Labor’s member for the safe seat of Cunningham in the Illawarra region, faces a preselection challenge from Misha Zelinsky, described by Nick McLaren of the ABC as “an official with the Australian Workers Union, former NSW government policy advisor and criminal defence lawyer”.
• The Liberal National Party has preselected Nic Monsour, managing director of a consultancy and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman, as its candidate for the southern Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett gained for Labor in 2007 and did well to retain in 2013.
• The Nationals have preselected Marty Corboy, a manager at a Wangaratta stockfeed business, as its candidate for the seat of northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal member Sophie Mirabella, who will also be a candidate again.
• Georgie Burgess of the Launceston Examiner reports that the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate preselection is pitting incumbents Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry against Sally Chandler, a trade expert who was pipped at the post by Jacqui Lambie as the Liberals’ number three candidate in 2013, and Jonathon Duniam, deputy chief-of-staff to Will Hodgman.
• Roy Morgan had one of its occasional polls on the biggest issues facing the country and the world. Terrorism and war came back to life late last year after a long quiet spell, though more as an international than a local issue. The economy is on a long upward trend at local level, but the terrorism and war resurgence looks to have taken the edge off it in the international result. The results are from a phone poll of 647 respondents conducted a month ago.
That blast from Andrew Neil was terrific. Spoke for many people – and went to what I was saying about why we felt what happened in Paris more than what happened in Beirut. It is no disrespect to the Lebanese victims of these Islamic Scum, to use Neil’s words, but the attack by the IslamoNazis in Paris, like their model under Hitler almost 65 years earlier, was an attack not just on the people who attended a concert, a football match or a couple of restaurants, but an attack on the values and culture of France which has influenced so much of what we enjoy today in the west.
[I find it difficult to believe that Labor in its current form can deliver a progressive future; there are just too many opportunists who will do whatever it takes to win pre-selection.]
So you will vote for a Liberal opportunist instead, someone who will support the party line in opposing Marriage Equality, in americanising the Australian health system on ideological grounds, on making the right noises (finally) about climate change but sticking doggedly to the same useless, expensive polices that achieve less than nothing and so on.
It’s that sort of attitude that got us Abbott and two years of our nation’s future put on hold as we were all taken on a TARDIS ride back to the 1950s. And all to give the middle finger to Labor because it had internal squabbles.
Go for it. You can always blame Labor for making you vote Liberal.
A call to arms
[Dear Friend,
So they want a war over equal love.
Today, The Australian Christian Lobby asked their supporters for $200,000 to support their “war chest” against same sex marriage, ahead of a Federal election. They say they are fighting to “get the message out, present a voice for marriage, and equip churches for grassroots actions.”
Well, we need to do all of that and more.
Their choice of words says it all. But their out-dated and divisive culture war doesn’t serve our communities, and it doesn’t reflect Australian values. That’s why we need to get out in front of our opponents and let love win.
To do that, we need your help.
Will you donate – right now – to Australian Marriage Equality’s peace chest for equal love? If each one of us donates just $35 dollars, we can double the Christian Lobby’s target. We can start the new year with a campaign that puts equality, love, community, dignity and respect forward as the true “traditional values” of Australians.
Will you step up and champion the fight for marriage equality
The next few months are critical in shaping how next year will play out for marriage equality. We’re on the precipice of making history. But we can’t stick out heads in the sand and just hope it all works out for the best.
The sad truth is, we know too well that the real casualties of a well monied “war” on marriage equality are our friends, neighbours, colleagues, children and loved ones the targets of the religious right’s destructive campaign motivated by fear and hate.
Their campaign has the ability to compromise the health and well-being of vulnerable young people, the LGBTI community and its allies. That’s why we need make sure their messages of intolerance are drowned out by our message of equal love.
Can you help make this happen?
We have the support of public opinion on this issue and it’s growing stronger every day. But the Australian Christian Lobby and its friends know full well that even if the majority of Australians support same-sex marriage, legislation will still need to be passed by government to change the Marriage Act. They’re doing everything they can to make sure that Act stays “between a man and a woman.”
We need to do everything we can to make protect vulnerable Australians from a hurtful campaign, and ensure the law upholds human rights and reflects public opinion.
Together, we can win this.
For equal love,
Erin McCallum | National Campaign Director
Australian Marriage Equality]
Here is an early prediction.
If Ann Charlton wins preselection and then wins Robertson I will walk naked down Mann St at 9 am on the Sunday after the election.
If Belinda wins pre-selection and the wins Robertson I am moving to New Zealand.
Oakeshott Country,
‘If Ann Charlton wins preselection and then wins Robertson I will walk naked down Mann St at 9 am on the Sunday after the election.’
And I don’t think anyone in Gosford will give two hoots.
Oakeshott Country,
Doubling down on your condescension really isn’t the most appropriate course of action considering your previous comments.
OC@899
[I find it difficult to believe that Labor in its current form can deliver a progressive future; there are just too many opportunists who will do whatever it takes to win pre-selection.]
I too despair at this. And, my efforts at reform are seen as hostile not only by the intellectually bankrupt nonentities who are putting themselves forward for pre-selection, but also by people who should no better, but are blind to the defects in these nonentities, and see only their slavish loyalty.
I will let you know how we go with our reform agenda.
For any progressives reading.
Don’t vote LNP. If you don’t think Labor is progressive enough hold your nose and vote Green and preference Labor. You might just get another progressive minority government.
The interesting thing about health under Abbott was that Labor and the media concentrated on the co-payment for primary care which is fairly standard in most social democracies. While in the background and almost unnoticed he abolished the three real reforms of Gillard. National Emergency Access Times, Surgical Access Times and Activity based funding. It is to Baird’s credit that the NSW government has dipped into its coffers to maintain these reforms.
What will Turnbull do particularly when he has an overwhelming mandate at the next election? That is the interesting question but I think Medicare Select may be about to make a comeback.
@washingtonpost: Bernie Sanders is right: The top 0.1 percent have as much as the bottom 90 percent https://t.co/iqj1nrEemD
OC@904,
Can I have a personal invite? I still remember Bernard Keene’s naked lap of the Crikey offices (because Campbell Newman lost?)
Politics in Oz is almost as volatile as that in Italy these days.
Mann St is a long street and I didn’t say which part.
OC, you are smarter than Bernard!
Latest news from Mali is 80 hostages freed.
[MI5 has concluded that there is no easy way to identify those who become involved in terrorism in Britain, according to a classified internal research document on radicalisation seen by the Guardian.
The sophisticated analysis, based on hundreds of case studies by the security service, says there is no single pathway to violent extremism.
It concludes that it is not possible to draw up a typical profile of the “British terrorist” as most are “demographically unremarkable” and simply reflect the communities in which they live.]
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/aug/20/uksecurity.terrorism1?CMP=share_btn_tw
Could someone please explain why a former heroin addict is being portrayed as being as bad as, if not worse, than Belinda Neal?
I mean, for starters, “former” means she’s not a heroin addict anymore which is surely one point in her favour.
If Turnbull had been PM in 1942 the Japanese could have saved themselves the effort of bombing Darwin and just leased it for 99 years instead.
OK I know it is a cheap and possibly jingoistic point to make but I think it would resonate with some older Australians and might be worth trotting out there.
Good morning.
Twenty years ago NSW accounted for more than a third of the Australian economy – 36 per cent. It now accounts for less than a third, 31.3 per cent, an all-time low.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-national-accounts-victoria-on-top-as-fastestgrowing-eastern-state-20151120-gl40n2.html
“Foisting more people who are in urgent need of permanent safety and protection onto another island is foolhardy at best,”
http://www.theage.com.au/world/migrant-crisis/indonesia-offers-australia-an-island-for-refugees-20151120-gl47jz.html
According to Leyonhjelm “harming yourself is your business, but it’s not the government’s business”.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/nanny-state-rejected-in-theory-embraced-in-reality-20151118-gl2mst.html
Flanagan. Aly was talking to Muslim Australians as well as non-Muslim Australians.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-grey-area-is-safe-against-extremists-if-we-stand-united-20151119-gl31wp.html
This is something the French, with their noble tradition of treating children seriously, have done well over the past few days.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/how-to-talk-to-kids-about-terror-20151119-gl38qw.html
The decision has delighted Nationals and infuriated Liberal economic dries.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kidman-cattle-stations-andrew-robb-criticises-scott-morrisons-political-decision-to-block-sale-20151120-gl3vkb.html
Tesla recall to check for a possible defect in the front seat belt assemblies
http://www.theage.com.au/business/tesla-issues-global-recall-on-all-90000-model-s-sedans-to-check-seat-belts-20151120-gl4ft8.html
“The thing that struck me about him was he was so nice.”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/why-do-women-stay-with-bullies-20151119-gl2oxu.html
The disorder is the next most common cause of developmental problems after Down Syndrome.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/couple-sues-royal-childrens-hospital-and-vcgs-over-missed-fragile-x-diagnosis-20151120-gl3obw.html
Australia has 110 foreign fighters, a figure which dropped for the first time (down from 120) recently as a number were killed and were not replenished by fresh recruits.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/what-do-the-paris-attacks-mean-for-australia-20151119-gl3k0a.html
The Transgrid network in NSW has a fibre optic network included in its assets which services defence bases and defence data centres.
http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-seeks-to-allay-china-fears-over-transgrid-privatisation-20151119-gl3j6c.html
The current Labor government is trying now to change the discourse again – to turn the white elephant into a white knight
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/inside-the-desalination-plant–your-guided-tour-20151118-gl20ck.html
The little penguins carry high levels of arsenic, mercury and lead in their blood.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/little-penguin-health-suffers-from-st-kilda-beach-pollution-20151120-gl3qkk.html
International criticism hardens opponents of the Chinese coalmining giant’s plans for the Liverpool Plains, as governments roll over.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/11/21/shenhuas-mongolia-coalmining-scandal-highlights-local-fears/14480244002656
Do US concerns over the sale of the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company suggest those who question foreign investment on strategic and security grounds have a point?
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2015/11/21/port-darwins-chinese-sale-surprises-us/14480244002657
They interrogated him on building a propaganda machine. A decade later, they became Daesh.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/world/2015/11/21/john-martinkus-what-my-captors-wanted-know/14480244002658
Taylor. For mothers who cannot find well-paid work, the current family payments – even with the bonuses – are barely enough to get by on.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/20/no-scott-morrison-the-lowest-paid-are-not-the-only-ones-who-can-fund-childcare
Asylum seeker boat towed away after coming within 200m of Christmas Island
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/20/asylum-seeker-boat-reported-approached-christmas-island
It appears we have the usual Labor problem here – no one should vote Labor until it is as pure as the driven snow, regardless of what happens to the country in the meantime.
And, of course, the usual thing about candidates – we want more ‘real’ people in Parliament, but apparently we want real people who have led totally ordinary whitebread lives, gone to the right schools, talk with the right accent, and have respectable jobs.
If anyone wonders why we don’t get ‘train drivers’ being preselected for Parliament (we have had a couple of truckies, surely the modern equivalent, but apparently they don’t count), all they need to do is look at the impossible standards we set for candidates.
Good morning all.
It is worth taking the time to watch The Young Turks on the dangerous rise of Donald Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsieTbCeBhs
BK
How is your shoulder? I’m looking forward to handing the morning news back to the Master in due course.
z,
A lot of people “of the no Labor membership left” think Labor is something it is not, never has been and is never likely to be and is terminal decline because of these alleged failings. A lot of this is self serving nonsense by activists with their own agenda.
The truth is Labor is never far from Government which is it’s main game. Government’s like Andrews in Victoria have come about through quiet persistence over a number of years and by developing a policy platform that resonates and is supported by the voters.
This has always been the way of Labor. Sure, we get distracted by egos, misrepresentations in the MSM, and “events” over which no one has control. However, the way back to Government is quiet policy development.
We are all constantly reminded about the flagging influence of the Union Movement. Only, they were so effective in 2007 and certainly the emergency services workers and unionists had a major influence on Andrews being elected. So, the evidence doesn’t seem to measure up to the doomsayers rhetoric.
I am less concerned about Labor’s future now than I have been for years. I believe NSW needs a proper clean out and overhaul. But, history shows this is forced on the Party through internal demands for change as much as anything else. Reform, like all farces just needs disaster plus time.
As for the concern trolls that are so generous with their character assessments and predictions of doom, they can go root themselves as far as I’m concerned.
Good morning Lizzie
I have just been to the surgeon and the physiotherapist and they both gave the shoulder the BIG tick. So I reckon I am OK to return to the fold at the Dawn Patrol. I must say your efforts were outstanding over this last 7 weeks. Also plaudits to Douglas and Milko for finding and linking the cartoons.
Morning all
Lizzie and Douglas Milko
+1 from me as to BK’s comments above
Thank you, and fabulous news BK about your shoulder!
Morning all.
Great news BK. I can’t believe it’s been 7 weeks!
Thanks from me to lizzie and D&M for stepping up in BK’s recovery period.
OC: You want a progressive future but might vote for “Turnbull’s version of the Liberal Party” (whatever that is).
I think you leaving the Labor Party was a win/win.
the Saturday paper story on the Darwin Port raises many questions. Surely the dept of Defence have shown extremely poor judgment. Not to mention the stuffed up NT govt! And apart from the dept of Defence, did anyone else in the feds have a view about this deal?
Support for shutting borders to refugees increases in UK and US
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/20/syrian-refugees-public-opinion-border-security
Victoria
The issue is the sale or lease of ANY port to overseas interests, not the specifics of Dawin.
How realistically could defence have said No to a Chinese firm but yes to one from Saudi, USA, Japan etc. After all what guarantee would you have that the Saudi owners would not in 5 years sell to ISIS (or a firm linked to it) or that a USA firm would not sell to a European firm who then five years laster sells to Russia.
The reality is that ports are strategic infrastructure. They shopuld be in government hands, not some shonk in the private sector.
victoria:
If nothing else, the govt’s stance on foreign investment is confusing. AFter accusing Labor of xenophobia over the FTA adverts about workers, some of its own rhetoric and decisions on foreign investment are questionable indeed.
dtt
I believe the Darwin Port in particular is in a strategic location. What was the NT govt thinking and for that matter dept of Defence
Bernard Keane in yesterday’s Crikey:
[So let’s try to work out what Australia’s policy on Chinese investment is: it’s not welcome in agriculture or real estate, but criticism of it is xenophobic when it involves Chinese workers being brought to Australia; it poses national security concerns, except when it doesn’t, especially for projects that may — or may not — have been subjected a lengthy FIRB process.
Such is the apparently arbitrary nature of our position that one might almost reach for the much-abused phrase “sovereign risk”.]
DTT
Port sales are on the agenda for the cash strapped Barnett government.
Will be interesting to see whether Chinese interests get a look in
Fess
This in the report is a little concerning
[Behm wrote that the deal “plays into China’s aspirations for economic and strategic dominance of the major trade routes that connect China with the world and imposes another constraint on the US’s freedom of strategic manoeuvre and its ‘pivot’ to Asia – not to mention Australia’s freedom of strategic manoeuvre in our northern approaches”.
Another China expert and critic of the deal, Geoff Wade, who has highlighted the links between Landbridge and the PLA, argues that it is either “targeted disingenuousness or woeful ignorance” for the government to suggest it is a private company and that the port investment is purely commercial.
Phillips says it is entirely conceivable that the company could be required by Chinese authorities to employ a “sleeper” agent to carry out various cloak-and-dagger functions.]
“Or their brief,” he says, “could be to seek to improve the prospects of employment for local people of ethnic origin who then could possibly be told, ‘Your prospects of advancement in the company will be significantly enhanced if you do this for us.’ ”
Phillips says it is unlikely that Landbridge would have the capacity to refuse such a request from Chinese authorities. He adds that the dismay over the deal from the US might suggest that, from the Chinese perspective, it has already achieved a strategic objective.
Lizzie and Douglas Milko
Just like to add my thanks for your sterling efforts. The morning round up of news and cartoons is one of the great things here on PB.
And a welcome back to BK, of course!
victoria:
I’m a little sceptical about all this cloak and dagger stuff but I can understand people having those concerns. If the federal govt wasn’t such a flip flopper on foreign investment we might be able to get some proper answers!
Fess
This govt is shambolic in my view
The cartoons for today.
David Rowe with a great one on the Sun King:
Kudelka on the lessons of history. I still have my snow dome “no war” opera house, purchased to help pay the fine.
Wilcox on Middle East politics:
Leunig on our nuanced MSM:
Great work from Pope on foreign investment in Australia:
A very grim one from Spooner, on Paris:
A subtle one from Cathy Wilcox. I lauded out loud when I got it:
And, from Cathy Wilcox’s twitter feed – True story, posted by Delta airlines cabin crew with caption “Only one paying attention to safety demonstration”:
:large
Yes, thanks to all concerned from this little corner of the Bludgerverse.
BK
You can have a lie-in Sunday and start Monday, then?
(sweet smiley emoticon)
confessions @ 933
I am often a little confused at first by David Pope’s cartoons but then real an unrelated commentary or article which suddenly makes it look like genius. If you have not already seen today’s offering by Pope, I’m sure you’ll really appreciate it after the Keane comment that you quoted:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
Bravo GG, you sir are a mensch !
The issue with Darwin is also the paltry amount involved.
$500 Million for a 99 year lease – a bit over $5 million a year.
Put a time value on the $5 and we are almost giving it away.
The Chinese would be laughing at our stupidity and thinking about the 99 year lease they were forced to concede on Hong Kong Island.
Its a wonder they didn’t offer those fool tories in the NT beads and blankets.
Shades of Pig Iron Bob all over.
Particularly brilliant cartoons this morning, especially those from Pope and Rowe. Our cartoonists are really world class.
OC, any resolution on Ja’mie as yet?
dave
Good point!
lizzie
It’s a deal!
The rot really set in when we sold the CBA and Telstra didn’t it Dave?
Of course the opposition to the nt port sale is coded racism about selling to the “Chinese” just like the sub and car shut down in sa was a coded racist appeal by Labor.