There’s been a fair bit of polling in the past week, from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Essential Research on voting intention, plus a leadership ratings phone poll from Morgan. Pretty much all of it has been good news for the Coalition, and especially for Malcolm Turnbull. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate accordingly finds the Coalition lead picking up yet further, by 0.9% on two-party preferred and four on the national seat projection, which includes two from Queensland and one each from Victoria and Western Australia. However, this is small beer compared with the movement on leadership ratings, with Turnbull recording roughly double-digit improvements in his already commanding position on both net approval and preferred prime minister – a result of very strong numbers from Newspoll, and positively spectacular ones from Roy Morgan.
Other news:
• Two state by-elections will be held on Saturday in Victoria, which you can read about here, and December 5 has been set for the federal by-election to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney, which you can read about here. All are Liberal seats that stand to be uncontested by Labor.
• Calla Wahlquist of The Guardian reports three candidates have come forward for Labor preselection in the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, which as conceived in the recent draft redistribution has a notional Liberal margin of 4.8%. The presumed front-runner is Matt Keogh, the Right-backed lawyer who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election on September 18. However, he will face opposition from Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang – who will have the backing of the Left, according to a report from Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times – and Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran in the nearby seat of Darling Range at the 2008 state election.
• A Nationals preselection to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the safe pastoral Queensland seat of Maranoa has been won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.
• The ABC reports candidates for Liberal Senate preselection in Tasmania include Jonathan Duniam, chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, and Sally Chandler, an employee of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. They will compete for positions with the number one and number two candidates from 2010, Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry.
• Adam Carr at Psephos now has complete historical state election results for Victoria on his site, going back to the very first elections for positions on the Legislative Council in 1843. As a resource for electorate-level results extending deep into the mists of history, it joins David Barry’s highly sophisticated federal election results site; the complete historical New South Wales state election results archive developed by Antony Green and maintained by the state parliament website; Tasmanian historical results back to 1909 on the state parliament website; and electorate-level results for Queensland going back to 1932 on Wikipedia. However, things are very barren in the case of Western Australia and South Australia, for which the best thing is Psephos’s electorate results going back to the mid-1990s. UPDATE: Kirsdarke in comments notes the Wikipedia oompa-loompas have also worked their way back to 1956 in Western Australia and 1950 in South Australia, without me having noticed.
@SenatorLudlam: about time: “@TheRegister: Former nbn CEO Mike Quigley ends his silence, unloads on government https://t.co/CxEU7d8PaC
[1982
Compact Crank
If the ALP is to oppose the GST then it needs to explain how it is going to pay for the States Health and Education and infrastructure budgets, and reduce the deficit and debt.]
Labor always has and always will run strong public finance. It is the Liberals that squander our resources, that lift taxes and yet chop the social dividend.
In the past telcos only kept metadata for the minimum amount of time they felt was needed for billing purposes. As technology advanced, this period shrunk dramatically – to zero in many cases. This year’s laws compel all telcos to keep metadata for two years.
In the past agencies had to get a warrant to collect metadata on a particular person for a proper purpose. Now they can simply dip into a pre-existing trove of data on everybody.
The changes are profound. Anyone who claims otherwise is cognitively dissonant.
This revelation last week really irked me and I have been hoping there was more to come on it. My sources say there will be. I hope so, cos this is disgusting
[Ben Eltham
Ben Eltham – @beneltham
APRA’s Helen Rowell’s speech on industry funds was so misleading, it might have been illegal if said by a super fund http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2015/s4341430.htm …]
CC,
The comment was on “efficiency”. How can systems that work against each other be efficient?
briefly @1998
ALP and Labour Market reform? Heh!
Tax reform from the ALP? Who are you going to Tax more and how much?
How is the ALP going to pay for their big spending?
guytaur
[ Wrong. Corporations have to obey law. They cannot make law. ]
The point is that nobody – corporation or government – has legislated your privacy away.
P1
That is just BS. No Police State possible by your logic
Nicholas
[ In the past telcos only kept metadata for the minimum amount of time they felt was needed for billing or other purposes. ]
Minor (but significant) amendment.
[
Compact Crank
Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 1:40 pm | Permalink
briefly @1998
ALP and Labour Market reform? Heh!
Tax reform from the ALP? Who are you going to Tax more and how much?
How is the ALP going to pay for their big spending?
]
Howard has the dubious honor of being the highest taxing government. The current government have racked up half of the current government debt; they have done it in less than three yours. It took over 100 years to rack up the first half.
I really think the Liberals should take their economic vandalism and stick it where it hurts.
2006
Compact Crank
Labor will grow the economy because it will invest in the economy. The Liberals do not understand and cannot run the economy. Everything they intend to do will repress real wages. There is not one single policy from the Liberals that will improve real wages.
Labor can and will run a strong economy, an economy with strong employment opportunities and improving real wages. Labor have done this many, many times before. They can do it again, no matter the falsehoods spread by the Liberals.
guytaur
[“Data Retention requests almost tripled in 2015″ ]
Before the laws were introduced – which shows that the information was available and being accessed before then.
Of course as new information becomes available law enforcement agencies will make use of it. I’m sure that there were sudden jumps in accessing fingerprint records and DNA testing, as agencies became aware of the usefulness of the data.
guytaur
[ That is just BS. No Police State possible by your logic ]
You keep diving off on tangents hoping to win this argument. You actually lost it several posts ago when you started to introduce all this irrelevant nonsense.
It is a gish gallop technique where you twist and turn so fast you think no-one will bother pulling you up on it. Both you and zoidlord use it a lot.
Player One @2000 – Really?
zoomster
You have just argued the case for safeguards. Yet you don’t realise it.
The more data is used the more safeguards need to be there to protect people from the inadvertent mistake to the malicious action.
We do it for credit checks and other services. This should be there as well for possible criminal investigation and there are not.
Zoomster
While security agencies can access that data they currently have a three months window – ie it is destroyed after that and no available. Two years is a much longer time frame that allows strategic use of data.
Secondly the other main area of concern will be areas of commercial sensitivity. For example getting access to the names of clients or suppliers will be easy in industrial espionage.
Let us face reality. Australian meta data will NOT be stored in Australia. Telstra for example has offshored all its IT work to India and the Philippines, both countries known to be riddled with corruption. Now while three months storage still leaves scope for corruption, two years is a much, much longer window of opportunity.
P1
No. Its not twisting and turning from me. Its twisting and turning from you as you are losing the argument.
You have already conceded the obvious corporations do not make law.
Therefore your oh the corporations do it so there is no worries government doing it has fallen at the first hurdle
briefly @2011
The Howard Government achieved excellent Real Wages Growth – much better than Hawke/Keating.
Given it is the LNP that is most often in a position where it has to repair the fiscal damage following an ALP shambles then it is no wonder they are seen as the ones making the tough decisions. It is much like sending the kids off to the ALP Aunty for the weekend who spoils them rotten and then the Voters come home to the LNP Parents and have to go off the sugar-high and go back to school.
@Cranky/1973
Corporates can fund the policies, if we stop tax avoidance.
Question @2005 I was commenting on a specific characteristic of a tax – how efficient it is. It is not a measure of what systems are working “against” each other – as you so quaintly put it.
Reliance on a single technology tenque to solve Australias broadband problems:
http://www.itnews.com.au/news/australia-to-develop-enforceable-code-to-manage-vdsl-noise-411272
“the government said either a single provider must operate the vectoring technology, or multiple providers should cooperate.”
= Telstra or another provider has full control of your copper line.
Nicholas
[In the past agencies had to get a warrant to collect metadata on a particular person for a proper purpose.]
Untrue. They actually had more access to more data without a warrant than they do now the new laws are in place.
Turnbull presser
Sounds like he is hosing down GST speculation to me so far
Christian Porter @cporterwa 21m21 minutes ago
Disability burden $17bn a year http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/disability-support-pension-burden-hits-17bn-a-year/story-fn59niix-1227590233768?sv=323e5f8ebe929d0d04dc5c940fb02d5a …
Yet Tax avoidance is ignored, costing us $8B a year:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/sep/29/tax-avoidance-costing-budget-more-than-8bn-a-year
CC,
Thanks, I agree I did put it well 🙂
“We need to increase the GST so we can give it all back in tax cuts and welfare” sounds like an inefficient waste of time to me.
We are in the midst of a massive war on the poor by the representatives of the rich … PM Mal and Murdoch and cronies.
Perhaps the most sustained multi-pronged attack on the poor I can remember ever coming from the COALition.
Issues that protect the rich and line their pockets are ‘off agenda’.
Some examples:
novated car leases
negative gearing
subsidised super
family trusts
Cayman Islands
ignoring corparate banking and super funds rorting and fraud
But getting prominent ‘discussion’ are proposals that will cut the incomes and wealth of those who are not rich.
Some examples;
Cutting penalty rates
Increasing the regressive GST
increasing education costs … and health
attacking industry super funds
And now attacking persons with disabilities.
All in a long term context where the real wage is static to possibly decreasing, poverty and inequality in the ‘lucky country’ are increasing dramatically, share of income from increased wage productivity going to workers is decreasing….
I pity this country.
“@srpeatling: PM says he expects the election to be “around September, October next year”.”
guytaur
[ You have already conceded the obvious corporations do not make law. ]
[ Therefore your oh the corporations do it so there is no worries government doing it has fallen at the first hurdle ]
There you go again. More irrelevancies, and also claiming I said things I didn’t.
P1
You did not challenge my assertion about government making law.
You might call it irrelevant I do not. As is the case with most Australians. Government makes law by passing legislation through parliament.
Hardly irrelevant.
[Sounds like he is hosing down GST speculation to me so far]
Thanks for the update Guytaur… anything like I predicted in #1946 ?
[I’m expecting something more like what Morrison was saying this morning. “To those of you who want to expand the GST, we agree, and those of you who don’t needn’t worry, it’s down the other end of the table.”]
CC @ 2014
[ Player One @2000 – Really? ]
Don’t you read his posts? He’s been saying the ALP must propose a GST increase for days now.
guytaur
[ You did not challenge my assertion about government making law. ]
Why would I challenge something so obviously irrelevant?
zoidy @2019 Tax avoidance is illegal – if you know of any – report it.
Your meme is not supported by the evidence.
Tax increases reduce economic activity – that’s why we have sin taxes on alcohol, tobacco and gambling. The CPRS/ETS/CO2 tax were designed to reduce economic activity in order to reduce CO2 output. So, your call to increase taxation on corporations is actually a call to reduce economic activity leading to falling profits, investment and employment and falling tax revenue.
How is the ALP going to pay?
Q
“@ABCNews24: PM @TurnbullMalcolm: The fact is our tax system has got to work in a modern and contemporary way #auspol #GST”
“@ABCNews24: PM @TurnbullMalcolm: We have to make sure that any changes to the tax system are fair #auspol #GST”
“@ABCNews24: PM @TurnbullMalcolm: We are a very fair society in Australia and it is important that our tax system reflects that #auspol #GST”
P1
This is why you are wrong. Its entirely relevant. No legislation no law. No law no government.
In this case we are talking about legislation by government. Nothing more nothing less
Thanks G.
So to paraphrase… “motherhood”!
zoidlord
[ http://www.itnews.com.au/news/australia-to-develop-enforceable-code-to-manage-vdsl-noise-411272 ]
In other words, “government to develop enforceable code for pig lipstick”
CC
[Given it is the LNP that is most often in a position where it has to repair the fiscal damage following an ALP shambles then it is no wonder they are seen as the ones making the tough decisions. ]
A bit of selective amnesia there. We’re still recovering from the damage inflicted by Fraser/Howard.
As PM, Howard benefited from a mining boom which allowed them to do sweet FA.
@Cranky/2033
Media has reported it, why the ATO has done nothing about it, instead we have Coalition Party that wants tax the consumption, and have substandard infrastructure? (aka NBN).
guytaur
[ This is why you are wrong. Its entirely relevant. No legislation no law. No law no government.
In this case we are talking about legislation by government. Nothing more nothing less ]
I have no idea what you’re talking about, or why you think it is relevant.
Are we still having the same discussion about data retention laws and how they impact (or not) on your privacy?
@P1/2037
They also said they wanted to deregulate & be more transparent.
Question
Motherhood indeed! What a bloody farce
[If you want to call me a liar at least have the courage to make it specific and factual. You might be right – but how can you prove it?]
Oh my apologies I didn’t think you were lying I just thought you were echoing lnp lies – like that the GST is a states tax – without much thought at all in your part
P1
Metadata retention is law. That is legislation. Entirely relevant. I do not see how you view it as irrelevant.
Along with other rot CC wrote:
[
Tax increases reduce economic activity – that’s why we have sin taxes on alcohol, tobacco and gambling. The CPRS/ETS/CO2 tax were designed to reduce economic activity in order to reduce CO2 output.]
]
What a tax does depends on what you have to do to get out of it.
You could get out of the ETS by investing in technology that doesn’t attract the tax. The investment is economic activity. In was a win/win/win. Reduced emission; more money for hospitals and increased economic activity.
This bunch of vandals want a GST; you get out of it by reducing consumption; less economic activity. Global warming is still real; direct action cost the budget.
Triple stuff up; less economic activity; a budget in a mess; no money for hospitals.
Only the Liberals could stuff things up that badly.
This is how you access data without the need of metadata:
iTnews.com.au @iTnews_au 4m4 minutes ago
Qld police want new powers to access cloud-based evidence: Call for modernisation of ten-year-old laws.
http://www.itnews.com.au/news/qld-police-want-new-powers-to-access-cloud-based-evidence-411290?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=itnews_autopost …
There for the argument put forward by P1, is invalid.
love it CC
cc roasts the old chess nut if they’ve done something wrong show me the proff.
and yet what is is it 1000 or more of the so called titled ones, hiding behind if i declare how much tax i don’t pay someone’s gunna steal my baby.
yeah right how many $$$ are hiding on holidays in caymen
[Don’t you read his posts? He’s been saying the ALP must propose a GST increase for days now]
I am pretty sure I’ve been saying for a year, maybe more.
Thanks all for the enjoyable speculation on what Turnbull wants to be as PM. Must go out.
Q @ 2025 – no system is perfect. If the changes can be used to improve the efficiency of the GST, get rid of inefficient state taxes, reduce State dependence on federal funding and unequal GST distributions, reduce or eliminate differential between the Company Tax rate and highest personal income tax rate (thereby reducing tax minimisation efforts (Trusts) and related inefficient expenditure on minimisation (Accountants and associated costs) plus increase some welfare payments as a trade off – it should be a good outcome. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the Laffer curve effect would see a resulting increase in personal income tax if not overall tax.
I expect the economically mendicant States (SA and TAs) and territories will scream blue murder but Two Year olds do that and get ignored by the adults.