BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition

Another week, another surge in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal poll ratings, together with solid if less spectacular movement on voting intention.

There’s been a fair bit of polling in the past week, from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Essential Research on voting intention, plus a leadership ratings phone poll from Morgan. Pretty much all of it has been good news for the Coalition, and especially for Malcolm Turnbull. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate accordingly finds the Coalition lead picking up yet further, by 0.9% on two-party preferred and four on the national seat projection, which includes two from Queensland and one each from Victoria and Western Australia. However, this is small beer compared with the movement on leadership ratings, with Turnbull recording roughly double-digit improvements in his already commanding position on both net approval and preferred prime minister – a result of very strong numbers from Newspoll, and positively spectacular ones from Roy Morgan.

Other news:

• Two state by-elections will be held on Saturday in Victoria, which you can read about here, and December 5 has been set for the federal by-election to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney, which you can read about here. All are Liberal seats that stand to be uncontested by Labor.

Calla Wahlquist of The Guardian reports three candidates have come forward for Labor preselection in the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, which as conceived in the recent draft redistribution has a notional Liberal margin of 4.8%. The presumed front-runner is Matt Keogh, the Right-backed lawyer who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election on September 18. However, he will face opposition from Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang – who will have the backing of the Left, according to a report from Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times – and Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran in the nearby seat of Darling Range at the 2008 state election.

• A Nationals preselection to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the safe pastoral Queensland seat of Maranoa has been won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.

• The ABC reports candidates for Liberal Senate preselection in Tasmania include Jonathan Duniam, chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, and Sally Chandler, an employee of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. They will compete for positions with the number one and number two candidates from 2010, Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry.

Adam Carr at Psephos now has complete historical state election results for Victoria on his site, going back to the very first elections for positions on the Legislative Council in 1843. As a resource for electorate-level results extending deep into the mists of history, it joins David Barry’s highly sophisticated federal election results site; the complete historical New South Wales state election results archive developed by Antony Green and maintained by the state parliament website; Tasmanian historical results back to 1909 on the state parliament website; and electorate-level results for Queensland going back to 1932 on Wikipedia. However, things are very barren in the case of Western Australia and South Australia, for which the best thing is Psephos’s electorate results going back to the mid-1990s. UPDATE: Kirsdarke in comments notes the Wikipedia oompa-loompas have also worked their way back to 1956 in Western Australia and 1950 in South Australia, without me having noticed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,186 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition”

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  1. The Liberal advertisements displayed on The Guardian pages; paid for by taxpayers; has a women carry a ½ case of oranges in a wooden crate. I wonder which museum they got the crate out of.

  2. ES
    Pretty sad honeymoon period isn’t it. 53% with a really popular leader. The Liberal party really is on the nose. Can Turnbull bury the right wing nutters; doubt it.

    Haven’t heard Turnbull come out and call that pommy bastard; Abbott; over his European hate speech.

  3. Good morning again from previous thread.

    Australian officials who paid people smugglers to return a boat of asylum seekers to Indonesia committed a transnational crime and put dozens of lives at risk, according to a damning report that calls for a Royal Commission into the scandal.
    Malcolm Turnbull has left open the prospect of a ground-to-ground nuclear industry cycle in Australia with uranium mined and processed in Australia, converted to fuel rods for use abroad in reactors, and then returned to Australia for safe storage.
    A pregnant Somali refugee who says she was raped on Nauru will return to Australia to discuss her abortion and mental health with medical experts, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton says. He rejected suggestions the decision was influenced by concern from the United Nations, which on Wednesday urged the Turnbull government to allow the woman “a decent option”.
    Nauru government insists Australian journalists have an “air of racial superiority” and it is under no obligation to respond to their requests for information, despite Commonwealth taxpayers spending billions of dollars on the island’s detention centre.
    The United Nations human rights agency has condemned the official response to sexual assault victims on Nauru
    It was rather unpalatable stuff with entrees sitting in front of the black-tie dinner guests.
    Tony Abbott’s controversy-sparking speech in honour of Margaret Thatcher made Conservative cabinet ministers “wince”, a well-connected Tory blogger says.

  4. Australia and China will go ahead with planned joint naval drills despite Canberra’s public support for US naval patrols in the South China Sea, which Beijing blasted as “dangerous and provocative”.
    US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson and his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Wu Shengli, will hold an hourlong video teleconference on Thursday
    Beijing will push and rattle sabres but it won’t risk a catastrophic conflict against the United States.
    “My wife and my son, I can’t see them. I can’t see them no more,” he said in broken English, erupting into tears. “Our big hope, our wish: just Daesh outside from Iraq.”
    Ms Ley said on Wednesday the public would be able to submit their views about their insurance schemes to the government in the coming weeks to inform future policies on the sector.
    Remember the discussion on PB about parking in Melbourne City?
    Melbourne is the only airport among the world’s 50 busiest without a rail link or one on the way, other than five heavily car-dependent American cities.

  5. The tech giant’s smart-home company Nest has launched a new campaign where the houses do the talking.
    Door-to-door workers have been illegally exploited and grossly underpaid while installing energy-saving powerboards under a Victorian government scheme.
    You might not have heard of Dr Perry, but if you work with vulnerable children or people recovering from terrible events, your training is probably based on his research.
    Australia is looking at trialling passport-less travel in a move Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop predicts will go global.
    The Katter Party is attempting to position itself as the real power brokers of Queensland’s hung parliament.
    Other states offer female jockeys more opportunities but even so there are huge gender-based pay discrepancies.
    Beijing: One wife, many husbands. That’s the solution to China’s huge surplus of single men
    And what a success his policies are continuing to be! Your news of the day, reduced to a snarky rant.

  6. Mod

    So if Turnbull isn’t going to get his 100 seats, then he’s not going to be able to stamp his authority on his party (which a strong leader would be able to do anyway, particularly with the Libs, but what the hey) so those kids stay in detention.

    How many have been sexually abused under Turnbull’s watch? You used to be quite fond of trotting out those figures.

  7. lizzie

    [Beijing will push and rattle sabres but it won’t risk a catastrophic conflict against the United States.]
    Sounds like what could become “Famous last words”;

  8. Morning all

    [time for the Prime Minister to stop kowtowing to the man he ruthlessly toppled in the long-awaited leadership stoush last month.

    Malcolm Turnbull’s hollow accolades are not only hypocritical and embarrassing – they’re starting to worry those who initially welcomed the change.]

  9. What i have been thinking……

    [Yet there are unnerving similarities with Rudd’s prime ministership. Take, for example, the multiple “excusive” interviews published across four newspapers on Saturday. In the manner of Rudd, Turnbull desires to be all things to all men and, in the process, ends up not saying much at all, besides mouthing contradictory platitudes and “big picture” motherhood statements. The one relatively concrete policy advanced by Turnbull in regards to infrastructure evoked Rudd’s penchant for centralising power and resources in Canberra. This desire to control from the centre is a tendency both sides of politics must arguably jettison.]

  10. Here are the cartoons for today:

    Today’s David Rowe:

    This is a new link to Rowe from yesterday. The other one seems to be behind a paywall.
    A brilliant one from David Rowe. Look carefully at the chimney sweep on the right:

    Alan Moir on Turbull’s los of enthusiasm for a republic:

    Double entendre from Golding?

    Great work from David Pope:

    Malcolm can be a bit hard to pin down, according to Spooner:

    Shakespeare on health warnings:

  11. victoria

    I enjoyed this criticism of the MSM.

    [If questioning Turnbull’s utilisation of a world-renowned tax-haven unavailable to 99% of Australians, or rejecting a fringe hospitality industry push to abolish Sunday penalty rates constitutes “class war”, then I’ve got a bridge to sell you. It’s about as convincing as the idea that the working class have morphed into “aspirationals”, as if working men and women have never wanted a better life for themselves and their children.}

  12. David Marr

    [The country has survived the Abbott years bruised but with its best instincts intact. Despite the fear campaigns of the last few years, Australians remain tolerant, proud, resilient and overwhelmingly optimistic.

    That’s the message of the eighth survey of social cohesion by Andrew Markus for the Scanlon Foundation. “What makes Australia unique,” says Markus, “is its acceptance of immigration and cultural diversity. And it’s strengthening.”

    The mission of the Scanlon Foundation is to measure how this migrant nation hangs together. The figures are subtle. Old White Australia is not yet a corpse but Markus found in 2015, “lowered experience of discrimination, heightened acceptance of immigration and cultural diversity, and more positive future expectations”.

    Abbott did nothing to restore Australia’s lost trust in government. Before Kevin Rudd turned his back on the greatest moral challenge of our time, 48% of us trusted Canberra to do the right thing by the country almost always or most of the time. Since Rudd’s collapse, that has flatlined at 30%.]

  13. I’m enjoying the cartoonist’s take on Malcolm. They seem to have a accurate view of Malcolm’s character. Humorous images have a way of influencing peoples perspectives of our leaders.

  14. [ Many employees are facing more real wage cuts amid predictions inflation may outstrip pay rises for many workers next year.

    Responses from 440 organisations collectively employing 260,000 workers suggest a predicted rise in inflation will absorb forecast salary increases, resulting in an average drop in real wages of 0.3 per cent.

    The study by global management consultancy Hay Group found average salaries in 2015 rose 2.7 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent last year. It predicted average salary increases of 2.5 per cent next year.

    Employees in the financial services sector recorded one of the biggest falls this year, with wage rises dropping to 2.6 per cent compared with 4 per cent in 2014.

    The largest percentage drop came in the resources sector, where fixed wages grew 2.1 per cent in 2015, compared with 4 per cent last year.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics said growth in wages in the private sector was at a record low, forcing workers to lower their expectations.]

    Read more:

  15. [ Every Westfield shopping centre in the country will soon include a 3D body mapping pod – and Westfield owner and manager, Scentre Group, so likes the technology that it has taken a stake in the business.

    The body mapping pod, promoted by mPort, measures users so they can correctly choose the right size of clothing from a range of associated retailers and brands.

    mPort managing director, Dipra Ray, said more than 40,000 people had already been measured and another 1500 were using the pods every week.

    “We have had a very strong response to the initial roll-out of our pods, with queues forming as customers want to experience it for themselves,” he said.

    So far the pods have been opened in 13 Westfields in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide.]

    Read more:

  16. Poroti – I love all those obits of Sir Henry Havisham et al, who shot down 20 german planes in the battle of britain, led a commando raid on D-Day, and then retired to his nursery in Essex to tend his garden, etc etc. Unfortunately, there will be very few of them from now on.

  17. [ Australia Prepares Option of Sail-Through to Test China

    Australian defense planners are looking at the possibility of a naval sail-through close to China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea, in case the government decides to follow its close ally the U.S. in testing Beijing’s territorial claims.

    “Australia has been looking at options,” said one official in Australia’s military familiar with operational planning.

    Another defense official, who has been involved in a military blueprint about the South China Sea for Australia’s

    Defense Minister Marise Payne, confirmed that plans for possible naval operations or flights by maritime patrol aircraft had been prepared, though said there is no immediate intent to put them into play. “At this stage, it’s only been looking at what we could do,” the second official said. The military had been looking at options including a sail-through for months, the person said, as tensions in the South China Sea intensified.

    Australia has two naval frigates in the South China Sea region—the HMAS Arunta and HMAS Stuart—which have been scheduled to carry out exercises alongside Chinese warships over the next week, as a naval confidence-building exercise. ]

  18. Very nice little cartoon on facebook of Abbott standing outside the Pearly Gates and being told by St Peter: “F*** off, we’re full.”

  19. dave

    [Australian defense planners are looking at the possibility of a naval sail-through close to China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea, in case the government decides to follow its close ally the U.S. in testing Beijing’s territorial claims.]

    Yes Sir Uncle Yank, us too …

  20. CTar1

    [Posted Thursday, October 29, 2015 at 8:49 am | PERMALINK
    vic – Walking and talking, thanks.]

    Well i do hope you are feeling okay

  21. CTar1 -Yep

    About the only difference is abbott would have been pushing for it to have happened already.

    See abbott bragged in London about ‘standing up to Putin’.


  22. Good Morning

    The Amnesty revelations regarding payments that Dutton is denying could well see Abbott Turnbull Morrison and Dutton before the international criminal court in the Hague.

    That court will not deny Indonesian supplied evidence out of hand.
    So having a Royal Commission when Labor gets back in appears to be a no brainer to me.

  23. victoria

    I hope the next Labor government follows Amnesty’s advice. The thought of Scrote in the witness box is a delicious one. No “on water matter” bullshit allowed there.

    [Amnesty is now calling for a government-appointed investigation, known as a Royal Commission, into Operation Sovereign Borders, the name for Australia’s controversial security operation to stop such boats]

  24. Poroti

    Labor would have to seriously consider such a Royal Commission. As far as I am aware its the first time the UN has requested Australia hold one.

  25. A GST election in which:
    (a) The PM has all of his money in a tax haven; and
    (b) The treasurer looks like he’d take candy from a baby – and would.

    This is going to be hysterical.

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