There’s been a fair bit of polling in the past week, from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Essential Research on voting intention, plus a leadership ratings phone poll from Morgan. Pretty much all of it has been good news for the Coalition, and especially for Malcolm Turnbull. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate accordingly finds the Coalition lead picking up yet further, by 0.9% on two-party preferred and four on the national seat projection, which includes two from Queensland and one each from Victoria and Western Australia. However, this is small beer compared with the movement on leadership ratings, with Turnbull recording roughly double-digit improvements in his already commanding position on both net approval and preferred prime minister – a result of very strong numbers from Newspoll, and positively spectacular ones from Roy Morgan.
Other news:
• Two state by-elections will be held on Saturday in Victoria, which you can read about here, and December 5 has been set for the federal by-election to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney, which you can read about here. All are Liberal seats that stand to be uncontested by Labor.
• Calla Wahlquist of The Guardian reports three candidates have come forward for Labor preselection in the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, which as conceived in the recent draft redistribution has a notional Liberal margin of 4.8%. The presumed front-runner is Matt Keogh, the Right-backed lawyer who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election on September 18. However, he will face opposition from Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang – who will have the backing of the Left, according to a report from Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times – and Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran in the nearby seat of Darling Range at the 2008 state election.
• A Nationals preselection to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the safe pastoral Queensland seat of Maranoa has been won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.
• The ABC reports candidates for Liberal Senate preselection in Tasmania include Jonathan Duniam, chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, and Sally Chandler, an employee of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. They will compete for positions with the number one and number two candidates from 2010, Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry.
• Adam Carr at Psephos now has complete historical state election results for Victoria on his site, going back to the very first elections for positions on the Legislative Council in 1843. As a resource for electorate-level results extending deep into the mists of history, it joins David Barry’s highly sophisticated federal election results site; the complete historical New South Wales state election results archive developed by Antony Green and maintained by the state parliament website; Tasmanian historical results back to 1909 on the state parliament website; and electorate-level results for Queensland going back to 1932 on Wikipedia. However, things are very barren in the case of Western Australia and South Australia, for which the best thing is Psephos’s electorate results going back to the mid-1990s. UPDATE: Kirsdarke in comments notes the Wikipedia oompa-loompas have also worked their way back to 1956 in Western Australia and 1950 in South Australia, without me having noticed.
1930
WeWantPaul
The factors at play in our economy that are leading to its skewed development and its under-development are the indentured labour force and the highly unequal rates of accumulation of wealth.
We have to fix both of these.
One is a labour market issue. The other is an issue in the fiscal order. Increasing the GST will – it’s perfectly obvious – make the problems of inequality much worse than they already are.
On current settings, real wages will continue to be placed under increasing pressure from two directions – from the labour market and from the tax-and-transfer system. We could hardly choose worse settings for our economy.
I think GST is a distraction to attack the Disability Pension:
Craig Wallace @CraigWtweets 2m2 minutes ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
Depressing to see us all cast as ‘burdens’ agains. Employers hardly likely to employ someone who will burden them:
guytaur
Surely the coalition expected Shorten And Bowen to disagree. They have made their position clear on GST for years
guytaur@1935
What has google, android or facebook got to do with anything? You are presumably introducing a whole heap of unrelated guff because you know your original argument is weak.
The government is not “collecting data”. It is simply legislating that the companies that already collect it hold on to a small subset of what they collect for a specified period. And it is a very small subset – did you look at the document I posted? And the period is less than most companies would already hold it simply for their own purposes.
Is the legislation unnecessary? Yes.
Is it a danger to life was we know it? No.
zoidy @ 1944 WTF?
victoria
The team Abbott brought into parliament is beyond predicting. Even when they seem to have moved towards a more sane approach to politics.
David Flint has gone off big time over Knights and Dames! Just payback by Talcum for the republic referendum loss lol.
1953
victoria
The Liberals clearly believe they can whip Labor at the election…that they can carry some losses and still win, enabling them to carry out their project.
Labor will have to find the wherewithal to fight. This is possible. Luckily, the framework is there. We can fight and we can win.
P1
You would not use this argument about the 7 year of documents stored in filing cabinets.
Why are you treating digital as different from analog?
As for Facebook etc I was highlighting company practise.
However that remains company practise and has not backing by law. In fact breaches of confidentially can get companies sued.
We get back to the basic tenet. No legislation would be necessary if that information was available anyway.
Prove the legislation was a waste of time. Prove making government access to data without the minimal safeguard of a warrant is not an increase in government surveillance.
I won’t hold my breath waiting for you to get back to me
dtt@1950
I hate to be the one to tell you this, but the security agencies can already do everything you are afraid of.
I’d suggest you rethink your plans for world domination.
[victoria
Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 12:47 pm | PERMALINK
darn
There really hasnt been a wall of negativity at all. I would say the msm are actually attempting to prosecute a case for it on behalf of the coalition. Labor have not gone in hard at all at this stage]
Vic
I’m talking about feedback – the kind that politicians get directly from their constituents.
As for the msm, it’s early days and we’ve only really heard from the Murdoch shit sheet so far. Give it time.
guytaur
[ If it were true there would be no legislating requiring length of time for it to be kept.]
The idea is to have material kept for a consistent length of time. This saves wasted time requesting material which is no longer available, but would have been available under another server.
If it’s not a GST election it’s an ETS election. The libs know that. They are stuck.
briefly
Not only the coalition but all of the commenteriat
zoomster
At least you are honest enough to say the government is requiring the storing of data.
[David Flint has gone off big time over Knights and Dames! Just payback by Talcum for the republic referendum loss lol.]
It will be fun to watch him going off on the evening news, which will no doubt help Mal by making it the main political story of the day.
Here is the calculation that is driving Turnbull and the Libs:
“Shorten is unpopular and likely to become more so, especially if the Turc brings down adverse findings. With MT’s stocks incredibly high, this gives us the chance do some unpopular but necessary things like increase the GST. But we most definitely learn the lesson of the 2014 Budget and explain these changes very clearly and compellingly ahead of time.
“We’ve decided against an early rush to the polls on the back of MT’s popularity. This means we need to get the Budget in some kind of respectable shape by the time the election does come around. There is no fudging the numbers or telling everyone we’ll sort things out if re-elected. We need strong decision action now on the back of riding so high in the polls.
Meantime we really need the unpopular Shorten to stay right where he is. With debate of a GST rise, we give him enough of a Keating-style sniff of hope that we keep him right where we want him. QED.”
darn
Could well be. I havent detected any outrage yet. I am certain if it were being floated by Abbott and Hockey, there would be hell to pay!!
zoomster
Oh and requiring acces to that data without a warrant.
As I said to P1. Why is that Ok when you would scream blue murder at warrentless access to data in corporation filing cabinets being stored for 7 years.
[On current settings, real wages will continue to be placed under increasing pressure from two directions – from the labour market and from the tax-and-transfer system. We could hardly choose worse settings for our economy.]
What can labor take to the election, and win with? Is less damage than the Libs a good enough outcome?
In tough times people seem to vote for austerity even when doing so is against their best interests.
The comparison to a home budget is silly but it is compelling to your average voter.
alias
What findings could Turc possibly come up with?
Alias: Please tell me that’s how the liberal machine is thinking
If Australia wants to maintain its’ world class health system, fund NDIS and Gonski levels of education spending and retain the current welfare system then it has to be paid for and not debt funded as is currently occurring.
GST is an efficient tax – except that in Australia it got buggered up by the Democrats. Australia would be economically and hence socially much better off if the base had been 100% from the beginning and States kept what was theirs instead of current redistribution rewarding failure.
The ALP are their won worst enemy – they continue to treat Voters as if they are idiots. Any GST change will be accompanied by significant changes to tax and transfers. The ALP will lose the debate because voters will see through their simplistic “No Changes to the GST” because the ALP has no credibility in opposing the GST – they campaigned for years against the introduction of the GST (despite Paul Keating advocating for one in the first place) and then dropped “Roll Back” like they dropped the CPRS.
@ACOSS: ABC Fact check: Is the disability support pension a ‘set and forget’ payment? Answer = No! https://t.co/BOaWfbUvD0 @ABCFactCheck
guytaur
[ Prove the legislation was a waste of time. Prove making government access to data without the minimal safeguard of a warrant is not an increase in government surveillance. ]
I don’t need to prove these things. They are not anything to do with what I am trying to point out to you. I won’t go over it again, since I have summarized it in several posts, most recently at 1954.
Mostly, what I am pointing out is that you cannot use the metadata laws to claim your privacy has been compromised – at least not any further than it was already.
You just don’t seem willing to accept that.
P1
No you just can’t accept government is different from corporations.
Its a little thing called the law
briefly @1958
I don’t think the LNP think they can “whip” the ALP on GST changes – but it is good that they have the confidence to take on the challenge and make the case to Australia. My respect for Turnbull and his Cabinet has gone up markedly given that he has taken the political risk to take on this politically difficult but economically necessary debate.
I know they won’t end up with a perfect system but at least it will be better than what we have now.
Victoria.. I confess I don’t follow the minutiae of the Turc as it’s very tedious and dull, however the general impression is that Shorten might have been doing a bit of empire building, a bit of lining the union’s coffers perhaps at the expense of workers. I don’t for a moment say that’s definitive or true, but that’s the impression I have formed by scanning the coverage.
If so, it feeds very precisely into the sort of perception that Kevin Bonham was describing that voters have of Shorten: a union hack, untrustworthy, driven by personal ambition.
Look at what CC just posted – it maybe crazy wrong – it is riddled with LNP lies (including the stupid states tax con) but it is a compelling story and in opposition we seem to have nothing except the same old gst rise will kill the economy the same line we were told before 2000 and it just didn’t happen. It is not even clear it had a regressive impact.
dtt
Firstly, as has been said frequently, all of that information was available to government agencies before the new laws.
Under the new laws LESS data is available to FEWER government agencies – so the users you refer to are safer from this kind of attack then they were a few months ago.
[4. They will know exactly when a union organiser met with a workplace delegate and when they met with lawyers (from mobile phone records which can track movement.]
Specifically ruled out under the laws.
[Of course this information could always be obtained by other means, but it was time consuming and costly.]
No. It could be obtained in exactly the way it can be obtained now, for exactly the same time and cost.
alias
Well i have followed Turc and there is nothing they can get Shorten on
If the ALP is to oppose the GST then it needs to explain how it is going to pay for the States Health and Education and infrastructure budgets, and reduce the deficit and debt.
Dear Mr Shorten and Bowen,
Where is the money going to come from?
Regards
The Voters.
zoomster
@peterjblack: “Data Retention requests almost tripled in 2015” https://t.co/V6h55YroED
Vic, 1968
I think it’s safe to say the feedback hasn’t been great, Hence the change in rhetoric. The comments on the SMH article are not positive, and they have been quite positive for Turnbull since he became PM.
CC 1973
[GST is an efficient tax]
If you believe flat taxes are good for the economy overall. Capitalism tends to work better when pay disparity is lower… funny that 🙂
The Malcolm Turnbull leadership swap is revealing itself to be no makeover; but more of a thinly disguised combover, writes Lyn Bender.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/malcolm-offers-valium-for-our-post-abbott-stress,8332#.VjbGYJVvE7s.twitter
guytaur
[ No you just can’t accept government is different from corporations.
Its a little thing called the law ]
Are you arguing that corporations can be trusted to obey the law and governments cannot? Or the other way round?
Question
Fair enough, but surely the coalition know that there will always be a sizeable portion of the electorate who would not approve
WWP @1979
If you want to call me a liar at least have the courage to make it specific and factual. You might be right – but how can you prove it?
Truffles will do a doorstop at 2 pm today. He will no doubt indicate where the coalition sits with the GST story. Probably will throw in something about Labor being destructive or some such!
P1
o. I am arguing government makes law. Corporations do not
Corporations cannot arrest people.
Corporations can be sued for breaching privacy and cannot legislate to make that privacy non existent by law.
Governments can
Vic, #1987,
I think the “Everything is on the table” is leaving a bit of a policy vacuum that may become difficult to manage. Sinodinos probably thought it would appeal to the “brave government” stuff CC is talking about in #1982.
As I have said previously, I will believe it when I see it…
Question
Yes i will believe it when I see it too
@FarrellPF: Immigration using secrecy laws to attempt to curb disclosures in court – good story @joshgnosis and @marnicordell https://t.co/Vqx2CH1fgK
guytaur@1990
[ Corporations … cannot legislate to make that privacy non existent by law. ]
No-one has “legislated to make your privacy non existent”. You have no less privacy now than you did before. As I keep pointing out, you never really had much the first place – you probably just didn’t realize it.
Vic,
Yes, his response will be interesting. I am assuming Morrison is closer to the top which is why I’m using him as the guide right now.
Turnbull will probably (humorously and diplomatically) also want to talk up his “stouch” with Flint 🙂
[ and reduce the deficit and debt. ]
Well CC, that would be a good point of differentiation from the Libs i suppose. They have done nothing but increase debt and deficit so far.
P1
Wrong. Corporations have to obey law. They cannot make law.
[1970
WeWantPaul
On current settings, real wages will continue to be placed under increasing pressure from two directions – from the labour market and from the tax-and-transfer system. We could hardly choose worse settings for our economy.
What can labor take to the election, and win with? Is less damage than the Libs a good enough outcome?]
Labor can win on labour market reform, tax reform, investment in education and cities, on the social welfare system, on the egalitarian and open vision.
The Liberal scheme represents the repression of real wages and the extension of social, economic, cultural and demographic division. This is their DNA. They are frauds.
Q @1984
Australia operates a significant Tax and TRANSFER system.
If the GST was the only tax and there were no transfers – your claim would be completely correct.
However, there are massive transfers – both cash and non-cash that balance up for the regressive nature of the GST.
To argue against the GST in isolation from discussion of the Tax and Transfer system is either political spin or intellectually deficient – which is it?
Hey Cranky, lay off WWP – he’s on your side!