BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition

Another week, another surge in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal poll ratings, together with solid if less spectacular movement on voting intention.

There’s been a fair bit of polling in the past week, from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Essential Research on voting intention, plus a leadership ratings phone poll from Morgan. Pretty much all of it has been good news for the Coalition, and especially for Malcolm Turnbull. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate accordingly finds the Coalition lead picking up yet further, by 0.9% on two-party preferred and four on the national seat projection, which includes two from Queensland and one each from Victoria and Western Australia. However, this is small beer compared with the movement on leadership ratings, with Turnbull recording roughly double-digit improvements in his already commanding position on both net approval and preferred prime minister – a result of very strong numbers from Newspoll, and positively spectacular ones from Roy Morgan.

Other news:

• Two state by-elections will be held on Saturday in Victoria, which you can read about here, and December 5 has been set for the federal by-election to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney, which you can read about here. All are Liberal seats that stand to be uncontested by Labor.

• Calla Wahlquist of The Guardian reports three candidates have come forward for Labor preselection in the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, which as conceived in the recent draft redistribution has a notional Liberal margin of 4.8%. The presumed front-runner is Matt Keogh, the Right-backed lawyer who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election on September 18. However, he will face opposition from Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang – who will have the backing of the Left, according to a report from Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times – and Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran in the nearby seat of Darling Range at the 2008 state election.

• A Nationals preselection to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the safe pastoral Queensland seat of Maranoa has been won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.

• The ABC reports candidates for Liberal Senate preselection in Tasmania include Jonathan Duniam, chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, and Sally Chandler, an employee of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. They will compete for positions with the number one and number two candidates from 2010, Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry.

• Adam Carr at Psephos now has complete historical state election results for Victoria on his site, going back to the very first elections for positions on the Legislative Council in 1843. As a resource for electorate-level results extending deep into the mists of history, it joins David Barry’s highly sophisticated federal election results site; the complete historical New South Wales state election results archive developed by Antony Green and maintained by the state parliament website; Tasmanian historical results back to 1909 on the state parliament website; and electorate-level results for Queensland going back to 1932 on Wikipedia. However, things are very barren in the case of Western Australia and South Australia, for which the best thing is Psephos’s electorate results going back to the mid-1990s. UPDATE: Kirsdarke in comments notes the Wikipedia oompa-loompas have also worked their way back to 1956 in Western Australia and 1950 in South Australia, without me having noticed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,186 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition”

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  2. psyclaw

    Meanwhile most of fhe msm is aiding and assisting Truffles and co in the big sell

    Here in the Oz

    [a third to compensate for a 15 per cent GST under a plan being circulated in the government, as Malcolm Turnbull is urged to capitalise on his political honeymoon to sell an election tax reform package.

    Amid reports the gov­ernment is modelling scenarios around a 15 per cent GST, Cabinet Secre­t­ary Arthur Sinodinos said yesterday that a substantial tax reform package would have to be put to an election quickly and properly explained to voters.

    His comments came as NSW Nationals MP David Gillespie prepares to use an appearance at the Rebuilding Foundations for Reform Conference, sponsored by The Australian and The Melb­ourne Institute, to reveal a costed plan involving a New Zealand-style 15 per cent GST to fund tax cuts, higher pensions and a rewrite­ of federal-state relations.

    The conference will be opened on Thursday by the Prime Minister — in one of his first major economic addresses — a speech that backbenchers hope Mr Turnbull will use to lay out some markers on tax reform and innovation, which loom as crucial to the election pitch.]

  4. Looks like we’re gonna have hundreds of millions of dollars stolen by the Libs again to run media campaigns for their re-election policy.

  7. The coalitions magic pudding from the last election doesn’t seem to be working, so they will fix it with another magic pudding.

  8. [I know, let’s have a plebescite on whether or not to raise the GST…]

    but why are you so against letting the people have a say Malcolm?

  9. As per article linked by lizzie.

    Will be interesting to see what federal Labor lands on this

    [However, Mr Secord said doubling the Medicare levy to 4 per cent “would raise $29 billion of which more than $21 billion would remain after protections to lower incomes”.
    In a speech to the NSW Parliament last week he noted that the surcharge is not paid on a taxable income equal to or less than $20,896 or $33,044 for pensioners and it is only partly paid by those with a taxable income between $20,896 and $26,121 or $33,044 and $41,306, for pensioners.
    “With our ageing population and the rising costs of health and hospitals, we need a funding model that responds to the real costs of healthcare in Australia,” he said on Sunday.
    “Increasing the GST is a very unfair model and it is a more regressive form of taxation as it has a higher marginal effect on lower income earners than it does on higher income earners.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/walt-secord-pushes-for-medicare-levy-increase-to-bridge-nsw-health-funding-gap-20151101-gko2yo.html#ixzz3qHXdz0hS
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  11. fess

    labor could propose that as the election is due in Sep 2016, there is plenty of time to draw up a plebiscite for marriage equality and GST increase at the same time.

  14. [11.A plebiscite on the GST would be a great suggestion to throw back at the coalition!]

    That is a great idea and if I were Malcolm I’d do it. You come out of it with a tax rise or voter permission to trim the hell out of spending win – win.

    Speaking of trimming spending I listened to Porter this morning and there might just be enough Hockey Eleventynomics left in the coalition for them to lose it without any help from Shorten.

  15. Faced with myriad choices, Rowe supplies Mr Turnbull with Louis 14th bedroom furniture. Louis was rather fond of the Sun King meme.

  16. [14.Government leaves open 15 per cent GST, base broadening possibility]

    Didn’t uncle arfur promise guytaur just yesterday this wasn’t the case?

  17. WWP

    I did not hear Porter this morning, but have done so on previous occasions. He really is not all that good. I was quite surprised at actually how bad he is

  20. [18.WWP

    I did not hear Porter this morning, but have done so on previous occasions. He really is not all that good. I was quite surprised at actually how bad he
    ]

    Yeah it was another reminder that ‘starring’ in the WA Libs state team is not evidence of greatness or even mediocrity – it really is a very very poor team

  21. [I dare say that if a plebiscite was put to voters about increasing the GST it would be soundly defeated]

    I think it would get up but it really doesn’t matter either way if you win – the voters have made the choice between greater taxation and lower spending themselves.

  22. confessions

    [ I dare say that if a plebiscite was put to voters about increasing the GST it would be soundly defeated. ]

    Especially if the “no” case spelled out alternatives that would raise as much or more – e.g. closing tax loopholes, cracking down on evasion, removing welfare for the very wealthy, making companies that trade in Australia pay tax in Australia etc etc.

  23. Even though it is cup day tomorrow here in Vic, most people make it a long weekend. Trades have an RDO as well. Schools usually take the day in lieu of annual leave etc.

    Although VCE exams are always conducted on this day, and that includes for my youngest. Yippee….

  24. I see team Labor are still employing the same strategy as they did when Abbott was leader. They are not rushing to bag the proposals being put by team coalition. They are waiting for the debate to draw out first

  25. People can oppose a GST rise and support an increase in government spending at the same time. That is in fact the best fiscal path for Australia given our circumstances (too little spending, high unemployment).

  26. Good one

    [Rowan
    Rowan – ‏@MalSplaining

    @MoretonALP @GrahamPerrettMP Not bad hey Graham, a so-called 21st century Gov using their old bosses idea from 15 yrs ago. #GST
    2:56 PM – 1 Nov 2015
    2 RETWEETS]

  27. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 8m8 minutes ago
    Newspoll one week out from 1998 election: prefer Labor’s tax package or Coalition’s? 45% Labor’s pckg, 40% Coalition’s.
    #sellingtheGST]

    Oh yes, let’s have a plebiscite on raising the GST.

  29. Wow. The Liberals really do want to tax us into a recession. A super-sized GST bang would take $90-odd billion out of consumption spending, out of demand, business sales and jobs. This would fell the economy in one blow.

  30. [e.g. closing tax loopholes, cracking down on evasion, removing welfare for the very wealthy, making companies that trade in Australia pay tax in Australia etc etc.]

    Could you be a bit more specific. What evasion are you talking of. The google tax will be law (or is already)by the election. Morrison has already responded to the final BEPs reports.

    There is the CGT discount and the money it will raise if it is removed. There is scope to change the super tax rules and good logic behind a very detailed review (but labor probably at best can promise to review it and face a scare campaign.

    I don’t think there is much political value in quarantining loses either specifically in respect of real estate or more broadly to a business or enterprise test.

    There might be some value in a buffet tax both politically and in revenue terms.

    I’m not sure what you do with intragroup debt – it depends on your view of how desperate we are for foreign capital.

  32. Not sure what’s going on with this 15% GST thing. On the 3aw news this morning Morrison seemed to be hosing it down, saying that nothing has been decided. It’s just on the table with everything else. He then went on to attack Shorten for having a closed mind on the subject.

    Could it be that the Libs have been inundated with negative feedback already and are having second thoughts, or is it just their usual weasel words?

  35. A Plebiscite on increasing the GST is a silly idea as it hasn’t been proposed as a policy of either party.

    A Plebiscite on Gay Marriage however makes sense as the leftwing and Labor have been pushing for it.

    It’s time to give the people a voice

  36. [1782
    Darn

    Could it be that the Libs have been inundated with negative feedback already and are having second thoughts, or is it just their usual weasel words?]

    They have to blame Labor for something every day. Today they are blaming Labor for their own stupidity.

  37. Victoria

    The Sun King stuff was not an accident, then. Basically L14 cottoned onto the idea of getting all his aristos to compete with finery and conspicuous consumption at his court. It followed that the court had to radiate like the Sun. This generated immense soft power for French kings.

    Arguably, Turnbull is today’s Sun King with his light radiating in all directions and with not only the immense power of his position, but immense soft power.

    Rowe is also drawing attention to the narcissistic elements in L14 and T1.

    So, good choice, IMHO.

    BTW, I do wonder whether Turnbull’s ex-girlfriend’s ex-cat was black.

  38. Also on the GST hike, I read in the Herald Sun yesterday that it might be accompanied by an increase in pensions.

    If ever I’ve heard a load of bullshit that is it. If it wasn’t for Labor and the cross benchers the Libs would already have significantly REDUCED pensions and any worthwhile increase now would come at a huge cost, negating the very purpose of the GST rise.

    As someone remarked earlier, the government seems to replacing its now defunct first magic pudding with another one – and I doubt they will get away with it scot free as they did last time.

  40. [1785
    TrueBlueAussie

    A Plebiscite on increasing the GST is a silly idea as it hasn’t been proposed as a policy of either party.]

    There will be a plebiscite on the GST. It’s called having an election. Let’s have an election on whether or not we should have a recession and all that would entail for the property markets in Sydney and Melbourne.

  41. rossmcg

    [Morrison hosing down GST increase? That probably makes it a certainty.]

    It will become a secret ‘on-revenue’ matter and all Treasury staff will be fitted out for new suits.

  42. Basically, as we know, the Libs’ true policies are rat-poison to most of the electorate. So, they are looking around for another great big lie to float at the next election. The obvious one is a GST Magic Pudding. But that isn’t doing too well. However, they really don’t have any other options. They have to make it look as if Mal is the Man with the Plan. So they’re going to keep gnawing away at a GST, even if it gives them indigestion.
    In other words, nobody should assume they really know what they’re doing, policy-wise or politically.

  44. [TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 9:10 am | PERMALINK
    Another 11 Asylum Seekers drowned mostly infants off the coast of Greece… 50 drowned in last 5 days now.

    Those who think Australia should go soft on their borders needs to read this:]

    TBA

    I normally don’t bother with your rubbish but this caught my eye and I now realise how much you lie awake at night grieving over those poor children. What a guy.

  47. [Good riddance

    Knights and dames are “not appropriate” in a modern Australian honours system and will be scrapped from the Order of Australia, the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has announced.

    Turnbull said the Queen had agreed to the government’s recommendation to remove knights and dames.]

    Actually the Queen’s got no bloody say in it and you would think the former cheer leader of the republican movement in Australia wouldn’t give a toss what she thinks.

  50. Glad to see Knights and Dames gone. Turnbull emphasising its not a “Captain’s Pick”

    Now for a plebiscite on the GST.

    TBA.

    Hypocrisy from you is no surprise. Good enough for people’s rights good enough to decide a tax.

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