BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition

Another week, another surge in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal poll ratings, together with solid if less spectacular movement on voting intention.

There’s been a fair bit of polling in the past week, from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Essential Research on voting intention, plus a leadership ratings phone poll from Morgan. Pretty much all of it has been good news for the Coalition, and especially for Malcolm Turnbull. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate accordingly finds the Coalition lead picking up yet further, by 0.9% on two-party preferred and four on the national seat projection, which includes two from Queensland and one each from Victoria and Western Australia. However, this is small beer compared with the movement on leadership ratings, with Turnbull recording roughly double-digit improvements in his already commanding position on both net approval and preferred prime minister – a result of very strong numbers from Newspoll, and positively spectacular ones from Roy Morgan.

Other news:

• Two state by-elections will be held on Saturday in Victoria, which you can read about here, and December 5 has been set for the federal by-election to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney, which you can read about here. All are Liberal seats that stand to be uncontested by Labor.

• Calla Wahlquist of The Guardian reports three candidates have come forward for Labor preselection in the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, which as conceived in the recent draft redistribution has a notional Liberal margin of 4.8%. The presumed front-runner is Matt Keogh, the Right-backed lawyer who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election on September 18. However, he will face opposition from Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang – who will have the backing of the Left, according to a report from Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times – and Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran in the nearby seat of Darling Range at the 2008 state election.

• A Nationals preselection to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the safe pastoral Queensland seat of Maranoa has been won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.

• The ABC reports candidates for Liberal Senate preselection in Tasmania include Jonathan Duniam, chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, and Sally Chandler, an employee of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. They will compete for positions with the number one and number two candidates from 2010, Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry.

• Adam Carr at Psephos now has complete historical state election results for Victoria on his site, going back to the very first elections for positions on the Legislative Council in 1843. As a resource for electorate-level results extending deep into the mists of history, it joins David Barry’s highly sophisticated federal election results site; the complete historical New South Wales state election results archive developed by Antony Green and maintained by the state parliament website; Tasmanian historical results back to 1909 on the state parliament website; and electorate-level results for Queensland going back to 1932 on Wikipedia. However, things are very barren in the case of Western Australia and South Australia, for which the best thing is Psephos’s electorate results going back to the mid-1990s. UPDATE: Kirsdarke in comments notes the Wikipedia oompa-loompas have also worked their way back to 1956 in Western Australia and 1950 in South Australia, without me having noticed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,186 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition”

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  3. I don’t think Turnbull’s position is anywhere near as secure as the talking heads in the media would have us believe.

    The populace is soon going to figure out that his “explanations” are just a more superficially palatable version of spin.

    Hence his justification of Direct Action, the need for more coal mines, bullshit cost “savings” with his crazy FTTN solution for the NBN, running the government like a “business” (whatever that means.)

    Maybe to cut costs we could fire a few welfare recipients – that would save some money.

  5. “@political_alert: Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen will hold a press conference to discuss the ‘Coalition’s plans to increase the GST’, 11:30am, Sydney #auspol”

  6. Another database was hacked, this time, it was anime streaming website, Crunchyroll, had their Users personal information stolen.

    Daiz ‏@Daiz42 13m13 minutes ago

    Apparently @Crunchyroll’s user database was hacked and they had passwords hashed in MD5… isn’t that just great.

    That’s 3 companies in the last 24/48 hours.

  7. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    [Are these all bridges to nowhere which will be overtaken by battery storage?]

    You’ve got it. The grid owners can spend money on the grid justified by increased demand – via a proposal to the regulator under rules set up by John Howard so that his corporate mates could print some more money.

    This gold plating of the grid makes the carbon tax look like a gnat bite.

  11. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    And smart people with money will go off grid and tell the grid operators to get stuffed, leaving those without the readies to ever increasing network fees.

    Or the network operators could fine consumers for going off grid and then we’ll have civil war.

  17. WWP

    [ Could you be a bit more specific. What evasion are you talking of. ]

    How about family trusts? Yes, I know, you’ll probably say next that these are as legal as parking your assets in the Cayman Islands. But the reality is that both are used to avoid tax.

  19. Trog Sorrenson@1803

    I don’t think Turnbull’s position is anywhere near as secure as the talking heads in the media would have us believe.

    The populace is soon going to figure out that his “explanations” are just a more superficially palatable version of spin.

    Hence his justification of Direct Action, the need for more coal mines, bullshit cost “savings” with his crazy FTTN solution for the NBN, running the government like a “business” (whatever that means.)

    Maybe to cut costs we could fire a few welfare recipients – that would save some money.

    When and where did Turnbull say “running the government like a “business””?

    This is yet another PB Furphy started yesterday by someone making an incorrect claim about what he said on Insiders.

  20. [Mesma just told FKelly the following:

    1. Broader GST at 15% will raise $130 billion annually
    2. It will make the tax system less complex n fairer and reduce people’s tax burden overall.    ]

    So the bullshit begins.

    If everyone has their tax burden lowered where the hell is all that extra money going to come from? Oh sorry, I forgot. With a magic pudding you can do all that.

  21. zoidlord

    [ Another database was hacked, this time, it was anime streaming website, Crunchyroll, had their Users personal information stolen. ]

    What’s your point with this?

  25. ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 19s19 seconds ago

    FACT: 25% of people on Newstart have a disability due to changes to move people off the higher DSP payment which pays $170 more per week

  26. [guytaur
    Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 10:38 am | PERMALINK
    “@political_alert: Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen will hold a press conference to discuss the ‘Coalition’s plans to increase the GST’, 11:30am, Sydney #auspol”    ]

    Guytaur

    Do you know if that can be watched live anywhere?

  27. [How about family trusts? Yes, I know, you’ll probably say next that these are as legal as parking your assets in the Cayman Islands. But the reality is that both are used to avoid tax.]

    I’m not sure how much you raise or what transitional measures you need to deal with existing trusts, there are also non-tax reasons for using trusts, but I’m happy with this as an idea.

    I think if you put it on a political gain / loss scale you come out behind but I’m not opposed particularly if you can lose it in a big package.

  28. K17

    [ No Knights and Dames? Malcolm has finally made a decision – thank God! ]

    I wonder if Phil the Greek will have to hand back his gong?

    Seriously though – this is the Malingerer’s idea of a tough policy decision? Spare me!

  29. TPOF@1823

    Bemused @ 1819

    When and where did Turnbull say “running the government like a “business””?


    I googled it and the best I could find is this:

    http://www.zdnet.com/article/turnbull-argues-government-should-be-run-like-nbn/

    Which is, arguably, much more frightening.

    On Insiders ar about the 34 minute mark on iview, and again a little later, he said something about the government operating in a “businesslike” manner. “Businesslike”, according to my dictionary means “efficient, practical, or realistic”, something I agree with.

    There is plenty wrong with Turnbull’s words and actions not to need to go making stuff up.

  30. [Knights and dames scrapped from Order of Australia, Malcolm Turnbull says]

    Pleased to see it. This was a national humiliation imposed by backward idiot of a PM on an unwilling people – and even an unwilling cabinet.

  31. Darn
    No reason to worry at all, Fran will ask lots of in depth probing questions that get to the heart of the proposal .
    That’s why they get paid so much.

  32. As I’ve said, Liberals always need a Big Lie at every election because their true policies are rat-poison. In opposition, they can just promise not to cut programs (which they do when elected). But a first term Liberal Government needs a particularly Big Lie (to distract from how crappy it was in Government and give it some sort of narrative). A GST Magic Pudding is now their favourite Big Lie.
    So they are going to gnaw away at this like a dog with a bone, no matter what the States or anyone else says.

  34. k17

    Who could forget Tony Abott embracing Mar’n Ferr’son after the latter’s retitement speech in the parliament.

    Gray is cut from the same cloth as Mar’n.

    I suppose the problem is that this could cause difficulties for Shorten, who with the branch stacking in Victoria, doesn’t need another internal problem for the Tory press to beat him about the head with.

  37. [There is plenty wrong with Turnbull’s words and actions not to need to go making stuff up.]

    Not me. I was just curious because of your post.

  43. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN 1818
    Why not fine grid defectors?
    [The Energy Networks Association says the proposals are deliberately calibrated to stop people from leaving the grid, and kicking off what is often described as the “death spiral”, as the networks seek to recover lost revenues from those consumers who remain.

    The change to a decentralised grid, based around solar and storage rather than big centralised generation, is seen as inevitable, and many analysts say that networks – which in Australia account for more than half of most bills following a massive ($45 billion) and questionable spending splurge in recent years – will have to change the way they do business, or even write down the value of their assets.

    But the networks are digging in, refusing to countenance write-downs, and now want consumers to pay for the networks whether they use them or not. Alternatively, they want any households that leave the grid to pay their “historic” share of grid capacity as a penalty for leaving.]

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/networks-propose-compulsory-fees-for-all-to-stop-grid-defections-28523

  44. zoidlord

    [ Indeed you don’t. ]

    Yes, I don’t understand why you post seemingly random internet stories without any commentary.

    If we are supposed to guess what the meaning is, then I’m afraid it is being lost in the noise.

  45. @P1/1844

    Your not getting the story at all, they claim they make our country safer by passing this legislation when it does not.

    I shouldn’t need to point out the story, when the Coalition Party and other hacks use fear to pass security legislation and control the internet.

  46. P1

    [ Your not getting the story at all, they claim they make our country safer by passing this legislation when it does not. ]

    Ah! I see your confusion – the Metadata laws are not about computer security or your personal security, they are about national security. You think ASIO cares if your internet password on some streaming video site gets hacked? Why would they?

  47. Hmmm. Don’t know how that “P1” got there – this was intended for zoidlord:

    [ Your not getting the story at all, they claim they make our country safer by passing this legislation when it does not. ]

    Ah! I see your confusion – the Metadata laws are not about computer security or your personal security, they are about national security. You think ASIO cares if your internet password on some streaming video site gets hacked? Why would they?

  48. Nicholas @1735, 1775

    Financing cost for Commonwealth government spending is zero if that spending is on things that are available in Australian dollars at the time they are needed; it is non-zero if the government needs to acquire foriegn currency, such as Yen to pay for Japanese submarines

    Moreover whilst the government can in principle set the interest rate on its ($A denominated) securities to anything it likes there are consequences to these decisions in that they affect inter-bank lending rates within the Australian financial system (in fact this is one of the main reasons why governments such as Australia need to issue securities) and also affect the currency.

    And because of the currency effect their may come a point where Australians cannot buy imported goods they want and need (e.g. cars) due to the currency having depreciated. An autocratic government can attempt to ignore this; Australia’s cannot (fortunately).

    The assertion that the best approach would be to leave the GST rate alone and raise spending is “not even wrong”. That is to say even if there is a case for fiscal expansion (which I think is true) the means to achieve this needs to be evaluated in terms of specific proposals including:
    – spending to achieve specific policy objectives (rather than just an aggregate increase)
    – diversion of spending away from sectors that are closer to capacity and towards sectors that are further from capacity
    – tax changes

    Expansionary tax changes targeting relief to people with the highest propensity to spend most fully utilize the best functioning markets to allocate resources and can also have the most immediate effect (if they can be implemented overnight per my floating VAT scheme) and so in the absence of any really good ideas for spending (typically to address market failure) such tax changes should be the default option in an environment where fiscal expansion is desirable.

  49. Boerwar @1787

    Rupes got the nickname of “The Sun King” for his ownership of that paper. Perhaps there is a nod to Rupes giving Truffles his nod of approval ?

  50. @P1/1846

    There is no confusion with me, that is your department on regular bases.

    Claiming to “National Security” is weak, because we have laws in our country that already prevent these measures.

    You forget that Metadata does take your personal information, so you are confused about “National Security” + “personal security” (when there is none).

    IN addition a very scary internet bill was passed in the USA Senate called CISA just passed the Senate with Privacy Laws not fixed.

    Your computer & every bit of information on it, is pretty much owned by the National Security now, in the name of Terrorism etc.

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