This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate again records a fairly solid shift in favour of the Coalition, although it’s only yielded them one extra seat on the seat projection – that being in New South Wales, where the Coalition is now being credited with one more seat than it won in 2013. The aggregate is back to being determined through a trend calculation, using only the polling from the Turnbull era (note that this isn’t the case on the charts shown on the sidebar, which suggest a much higher result at present for the Coalition). However, the bias adjustments for Essential Research and Roy Morgan are still being determined in a very crude fashion. This is particularly an issue for the latter, given its idiosyncratic Turnbull era results. Both pollsters have been determined simply on the basis of the flurry of polling that emerged the week after the leadership change, the benchmark being provided by Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, which remain subject to the same bias adjustments used in the Abbott era. The adjustment to the Labor primary vote for Morgan is particularly pronounced (over +5%), which also means it’s getting a very low weighting in the trend determination. These bias adjustments will be recalculated as new results from the other pollsters become available to benchmark them against.
Also worth noting:
• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports it is “all but certain” that Joe Hockey will be succeeded as the Liberal candidate for North Sydney by Trent Zimmerman, factional moderate and the party’s New South Wales state president. Hockey’s support for Zimmerman is said to have sealed the deal, although it is also reported that he had earlier approached the state Treasurer, Gladys Berejiklian. Other mooted candidates are Tim James, chief executive of Medicines Australia, and John Hart, chief executive of Restaurant and Catering Australia. James is a member for the Right, and is also mentioned as a potential candidate to succeed Tony Abbott in Warringah, or Jillian Skinner in the state seat of North Shore.
• The issue of Senate electoral reform could be heading towards a compromise more conducive to minor parties than the proposal of straightforward optional preferential voting above and below the line, as was proposed last year by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. Key to the argument is whether group voting tickets should be abolished, a path favoured by Nick Xenophon but fiercely opposed by the micro-party Senators, the most active being David Leyonhjelm. Xenophon has approached the government with a proposal that would require above-the-line voters to number at least three boxes, and below-the-line voters to number at least 12, resulting in a greater flow of preferences to smaller players. Antony Green also argues that the resulting increase in the number of live votes in the final stages of the count would reduce the chances of the final seat being decided in a random fashion. Leyonhjelm has sought a middle path by proposing the retention of group voting tickets and one number above-the-line voting, while relieving the burden on below-the-line voters by requiring that they number a minimum of six boxes – very much the same as applies for the Victorian upper house, except that the minimum number of boxes there is five. At the November 2014 state election, 94% of voters went above-the-line in the upper house, helping to elect two members of Shooters & Fishers and one each from the Sex Party, the DLP and Vote 1 Local Jobs.
William Bowe@1449
Yes, it would not surprise me if it was dropped as it was ineffective.
Branch stacking is a wicked problem and that was a mechanism aimed at reducing it.
bemused,
You aren’t known as a complete dickhead for nothing.
Shorten’s style worked very well against Abbott as he let him self-combust providing a safe and bland option.
I’m sure he will rejig it as that won’t work against Turnbull.
Greensborough Growler@1450
A new beginning in our relationship? 😮
Re Annabel Crabb.
She does seem to have been a bit inclined to be charmed by Abbott over the years. But what I think her article is mainly saying is something like “as a writer of political colour pieces, I used to really love Abbott because he was unscripted and flaky. It looks like that Abbott is back, so he’ll give me lots more colourful things to write about. Yippee!”
It’s an ok line of argument for a cartoonist or TV comedian like Charlie Pickering, but, coming from someone who – despite her silly cooking shows and the like – seems to still want to be considered a serious journalist, it’s basically beneath contempt IMO. Anyone who cares about good government in Australia would want Abbott to disappear from public view forever.
[1454
bemused]
We should spend a whole lot less time trying to persuade each other of our own merits, and a whole lot more time meeting, listening to, learning from, seeking to persuade and developing support from members of the public.
We will find our disagreements are very minor compared with the task of winning and living up to the support of voters.
[1453
Diogenes
Shorten’s style worked very well against Abbott as he let him self-combust providing a safe and bland option.
I’m sure he will rejig it as that won’t work against Turnbull.]
Turnbott has begun to campaign on ground that favours Labor. This will be good for Labor and for the country too. Hopefully the Crazy days are gone for good.
1455
meher baba
Abbott is evidence that anything is possible in politics – even the most lamentable mistakes.
Turnbull will gain considerable political mileage out of this announcement, for a fraction of the billions that Abbott was wiling to waste on toll road tunnels. Anna Palusczuzk will also benefit.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/gold-coast-light-rail-pm-arrives-by-train-with-95m-promise-on-board-20151011-gk68rt.html
It is a sensible decision from a transport viewpoint. $95 million is peanuts in the scheme of things. Of course, it is hard for your broker mates to hide $1.2 billion success fees in small budgets. The big end of town will not be pleased with Malcolm.
So Turncoat is sponsoring a coal ad (it says it is from Canberra).
Oh and only spending less than $100 million on Rail only because of the Olympics.
Not really 21st Century.
Pathetic little turncoat.
meher @ 1444
I’ve said a number of times in posts here that I don’t think much of alternative histories. There is enough to mine from analysing what actually happened.
I don’t know whether Shorten will win the next election. I suspect that it will depend on what Turnbull and the Liberals do to muck themselves around and the ability of Shorten and Labor to capitalise on that. Unpredictable at this stage, although I can hazard a guess which would be more generous to Labor than your’s.
Which brings me to the other point. Nobody here is suggesting that Shorten is a political genius who brilliantly manipulated Tony Abbott into destroying himself. Indeed, I would agree that Abbott might well have been one of the easiest opponents that Shorten could have faced as a new LOTO. But the fact remains that Abbott won and kept leadership of the Liberal party for four years, which is the longest the Liberals have ever had a LOTO in one hit. He then won an election soundly and he had an ability to generate protection and second chances from people who should have known much better and who would never have done so for much more deserving political leaders.
I can only judge Shorten on what he did. He kept his cool when the whole system was biased against him. Time and again this year Labor have released policies that have had a single airing on ABC24 and still was accused of not coming up with any policies (despite have many more policies already on the table by the ALP National Conference than Abbott took to the last Federal election). And despite the almost hysterical efforts of his political opponents to paint him in all sorts of political colours and to misrepresent him and Labor most absurdly (reported without critical analysis by the press), Shorten still did not rise to the bait.
Now it might be that we are crediting Shorten with good judgement when in fact he lacks fight and is too scared to engage in manu et manu politics. And it just so happened that this was all Abbott had going for him, so Abbott simply drew the wrong opponent by bad luck and went down into the septic tank he had filled himself flailing against an opponent out of reach. My take is that he is not like this. Your take seems to be that he is. That Shorten lacked the ability to take the fight to Abbott, rather than actively resisting the temptation to do so. We will know in the next few months.
But I’m happy for the time being with my analysis.
William
NSW rules were once strict
3 meeting per year to be able to vote. The faction bosses had to work hard to keep their members with voting rights. In the notorious Balmain branch the RW recruited the WHOLE rugby team. They would run in during their training runs, sign the attendance book and head off again. Many a gap in the attendance book was left for people who were “there in spirit.”
In another case someone had a wife who was a surgical nurse who sewed a complete additional page into an attendance book.
The attempted murder of Peter Baldwin occurred because he had uncovered pages of false signatures in one set of branch books.
Rail Project that Turncoat supported had to do with Sport.
Like many projects that Liberals support (Stadiums etc).
Wasting tax payers money, while Morrison is cutting left and right.
Bushfire
That piece in The Age implies that Shorten will be exposed in TURC for a fortnight. Not till the end do we ‘learn’ that He will merely be ‘available’ on the last day.
What a beat-up. And it took TWO journos to write it? In the pub, I should think.
Dio @ 1453
[Shorten’s style worked very well against Abbott as he let him self-combust providing a safe and bland option.
I’m sure he will rejig it as that won’t work against Turnbull.]
That is one point of view. And the one that I agree with.
The only other view being expressed here is that Shorten, by doing ‘nothing’, was the undeserving beneficiary of Abbott’s self-destruction. I don’t agree with that view, but it could be valid. After all, Abbott made it to the PM’s job despite being a political one trick pony.
We’ll see. Clearly, Shorten and Labor cannot afford to cede the centre ground, where the election will be won, to Turnbull. The Liberals, by putting Turnbull in the job, have made a substantial play for that ground and Turnbull holds the territory at the moment – although somewhat more tenuously than might be thought. Labor needs to contest for that ground. If they do not the Liberals will win the next election by default. If they do, it’s anyone’s guess who will win, but it will be a tough contest.
Oooops! I gave Shorten a godlike Capital. Didn’t mean it. Promise.
[Re Annabel Crabb.
She does seem to have been a bit inclined to be charmed by Abbott over the years.]
Crabbe once rated Abbott as Australia’s best politician, well before he became LOTO.
I tried to find a link but I couldn’t, I can remember at the time nearly puking at the grovelling from Crabbe.
Abbott has been a bad habit for many journos, like Crabbe.
They still think he’s capable of a comeback, so they stay loyal, or scared… whatever word you want to use.
But eventually it’ll become plain he is a has-been. Maybe even to himself (although this will take a lot longer).
[What a beat-up. And it took TWO journos to write it? In the pub, I should think.]
As I indicated in an earlier post, the work they have done on bagging Shorten is now a sunk cost. There is little to lose now by proceeding with the line and, if something utterly amazingly awful does come out of TURC to destroy Shorten, these guys will get Walkley awards or some such for persisting. And if it fizzles out, everyone will forget the articles (apart from the bad taste in the mouth they left for Shorten).
BB,
Abbott and his supporters are in the shock/denial phase of grief.
http://www.recover-from-grief.com/7-stages-of-grief.html
DTT
[The attempted murder of Peter Baldwin occurred because he had uncovered pages of false signatures in one set of branch books.]
Spot on!
Zoidlord 1460
The timing for the Gold Coast LRT link funding had to do with sport. The need though goes well beyond that. In fact, the Gold Coast Light Rail was first proposed by the Beatty Labor government. It included the extra link now being built. From a transport planning viewpoint, it is very sensible, since it links the main dense residential and tourist strip of the Gold Coast, plus the hospital and university, to the rest of the urban area and the main line to Brisbane.
The money offered by the Feds ($95 million) was consistent with the three way split (Fed/State/Local) asked for. So Turnbull was not being cheap, he was being sensible, seeing a low cost way of differentiating himself from Abbott and shoring up votes in a now marginal seat.
If that is the best you can do Shorten has no chance.
Might be useful to step back a bit and examine Shorten and team’s real successes and consider an appropriate strategy in the next year.
1. Much as I disagree in principle with the actual positions, I hold my nose and agree that NOT engaging Abbott on national security issues was wise. It certainly DID contribute to Abbott’s collapse because in order to try to wedge Shorten, Abbott looked sillier and sillier. This certainly was a major factor in his removal.
2. Shorten and the ALP team handled the post 2014 budget mess well, although probably anybody with a grade 7 education could also have done well – Actually I think my old kelpie dog could have done well against the ToJo show. I am also told by a birdie that Shorten’s excellent budget speech was actually written by another Labor hero with superb speech writing ability (MTBW note well to guess my meaning).
3. I am less sure about Shorten and co’s performance on immigration. Tricky one this and whatever is done may come back to bite one in the backside.
4. Now in the Turnbull era, Labor policies are starting to emerge. (There were NOT any until very recently, which was probably deliberate and wise, but let us NOT pretend there were policies). The real question is “Will these policies be enough to capture the public imagination versus Turnbull?” It will be very difficult.
5. Strategy going forward. I think that opposing the FTAs is probably wise but will need skillful handling. Penalty rates may NOT be a net vote winner. I need more info about how many affected and what the impact is. I think the “private school” fees was a misstep.
6. Labor needs to play a “watch and wait” strategy, hoping for an LNP mistake. While it would be great if they self immolated with TATA wars aka the RGR affair, I think this is unlikely so not worth thinking about. The economy will be the key. We will just have to wait until February next year when the Turnbull honeymoon fades to actually plan an approach.
7. In the meantime Labor/Shorten need to just focus on policies, make sure they are costed and have implementation plans. The time for a low key strategy is now passed and high profile policies must be the way forward. Given Turnbull is hampered by his RWNJ in
TPOF,
I tend to look at these things a little differently.
The fact that Shorten is under scrutiny for his past dealings is a good thing. You will recall the press gave Abbott a total free pass to the Lodge and we’ve seen how that worked out.
It also suggests the MSM are taking Shorten seriously as the alternative PM.
There have been plenty of these stories around to date. So far, no one has laid a glove on Shorten. Given the TURC is tainted by its own ineptitude, there hasn’t been any evidence of wrong doing and all and sundry see it as a kangaroo court, then the evidence coming up will need to be very contrary to have any real impact.
As for the Branch stacking allegations. Easy to smear. But, show me the evidence and show me how Shorten was actually personally involved.
Socrates
Here, here!
The other IMPORTANT point is the ideological fixation of the Abbott government which REFUSED to give money to Qld unless they privatised assets.
This is a BIG, BIG, BIG policy shift by Turnbull and should NOT be treated as business as usual. Mind you the Abbott approach was so basically bonkers that it does not seem such a big deal to return to sanity.
Goodness the Get Bill crew are still going on and on.
About as relevant and interesting as the Rudd-Gillard wars used to be.
I didn’t think Turnbull was going to change anything?
David
I think on public transport we ARE seeing a policy change. Good thing too!!!!
It appears that the anti-Islam protestors were outnumbered by pro-diversity demonstrators in every State.
[Much as I disagree in principle with the actual positions, I hold my nose and agree that NOT engaging Abbott on national security issues was wise. It certainly DID contribute to Abbott’s collapse because in order to try to wedge Shorten, Abbott looked sillier and sillier. This certainly was a major factor in his removal.]
This is very true, and something that’s only apparent in retrospect. I don’t think Labor themselves realised that’s what they were doing, as they conceived the tactic in purely defensive terms.
daretotread
[Mind you the Abbott approach was so basically bonkers that it does not seem such a big deal to return to sanity.]
Exakery ! Truffles’ approach to the handling of the post “terrorist” attack was pretty SOP but after the Abbott Death Cult 24 Flag era it was met with Hosannas.
E. G. Theodore
In the 1880s Victoria has a large influx of people, just before the bust, the Victorian Government was forecasting that by now we would have a national population of over 100 million.
The joys of long term forecasting.
briefly
[…we have to become a campaign-oriented, grass-roots-powered organ. This is hard work…but immensely gratifying and energising.]
Welcome to the Greens Party way 😉
E. G. Theodore
The reason for that 50 years of stagnation was a side effect of the Melbourne land bust when Melbourne went from being full blown neoliberal (yes Nicholas) being a city that was as wealthy as London, however the bubble burst and Melbourne developed a more fiscally conservative outlook which pretty much remained until the Kennett era
William Bowe
[This is very true, and something that’s only apparent in retrospect. ]
I am sure several contributors here commented that Shorten by not reacting was causing Abbott to go more extreme (silly) in an effort to get Shorten to start a fight.
DTT I think we have seen a number of changes, or perhaps altering the conversation, and I hope this is just the beginning.
“… that won’t work against Turnbull.
Why not? It did last time without labor having to lift a finger.
Truffles, Grech and the LNP did it all by their own selves.
[In advance of the COP21 United Nations climate talks to be held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December, every country was asked to submit proposals on cutting use of fossil fuels in order to reduce their emissions of greenhouses gases and so tackle global warming. The deadline for these pledges was 1 October.
A total of 147 nations made submissions, and scientists have since been totting up how these would affect climate change. They have concluded they still fall well short of the amount needed to prevent a 2C warming by 2100, a fact that will be underlined later this week when the Grantham Research Institute releases its analysis of the COP21 submissions. This will show that the world’s carbon emissions, currently around 50bn tonnes a year, will still rise over the next 15 years, even if all the national pledges made to the UN are implemented. The institute’s figures suggest they will reach 55bn to 60bn by 2030.]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/10/climate-2c-global-warming-target-fail
It’s different when you are not coming from a long way behind a popular PM such as was the case with OL Thrnbull. There is not need for Turnbull to jump at desperate measures like UteGate.
briefly
The ALP were given a major boost by the great bust as the then government just refused to offer any form of economic stimulus or social welfare, looking at the stories, its quite disturbing how the political class were so bloody minded in their refusal to act.
mexicanbeemer
[The joys of long term forecasting.]
The use of straight line rulers is a tad too common 🙂
http://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/prime-minister-daddy#.hp3QKXWpGk
[But this really does seem like the first time an Australian politician has been called “daddy”. So we decided to interview some people who tweeted at him to figure out this disturbing meme.]
davidwh
[ I didn’t think Turnbull was going to change anything? ]
The Turnbott hasn’t changed anything fundamental. He’s just rescinded some of the more egregiously stupid spur-of-the-moment “captain’s pick” decisions made by Abbott that were designed to punish various state governments (i.e. Qld and Victoria).
daretotread thinks this is big news …
[ This is a BIG, BIG, BIG policy shift by Turnbull and should NOT be treated as business as usual. ]
… but in reality it is not, as even dtt has to concede in the same paragraph …
[ Mind you the Abbott approach was so basically bonkers that it does not seem such a big deal to return to sanity. ]
According to someone on Twitter, my article in Crikey on Friday “pointed out that @BuzzFeedOzPol is way off with their Daddy theory”. Find out more at http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/10/09/poll-bludger-older-greens-seduced-by-the-silver-fox/, if you’re a subscriber.
poroti
Considering the relationship between that era’s politicans and property, there might have been a more more to that protected population number.
Eddie Obied would have felt right at home in those days 😉
WB @ 1480
[This is very true, and something that’s only apparent in retrospect. ]
Dunno about retrospect. I don’t think Labor planned this from the front. They were more concerned about getting wedged. But once Abbott became increasingly strident in order to tempt a response from Labor I think the brains trust realised the potential of the tactic. Part of this required the fine judgement of knowing when Abbott had crossed the line into absurdity, which meant that Labor could safely oppose him. I remember a lot of us at the time were saying here and on other sites that Labor’s refusal to be wedged would have this effect.
And so it came to pass.
[ I don’t think Labor planned this from the front. They were more concerned about getting wedged. But once Abbott became increasingly strident in order to tempt a response from Labor I think the brains trust realised the potential of the tactic. ]
There were several Bludgers who said this fairly early in the piece.
The Cabinet Leak regarding dual citizens having their citizenship revoked, was the turning point. Once it was known the Cabinet was divided, the whole Abbott anti-Muslim strategy came unstuck.
His credibility to be speaking for all Australians was trashed once it became known his own colleagues had their doubts.
William Bowe,
This ‘older’ Greens has not been seduced by Turnbull at all. Superficial appearance and style never wins over substance.
By the by, since I have your attention…..you recently outed my gender again despite your private assurance it would never happen again.
But a belated thank you for responding to BB’s BS when all I did was provide a link.
P1 @ 1493
I’m somewhere between you and DTT on this. Certainly, there has been far more rhetorical change than action, but the rhetorical change is aimed at repositioning party attitudes, both with the government and outside. In my view, some of the significance of the mocking of the PM yesterday, which is unprecedented for the Liberals who love to have their conferences as stage-managed love-ins, was the pushback against what the right see as a left wing takeover.
In other words, MT’s talk about not having factions and backroom deals was jeered because the right saw the left faction as using the pretence of there not being factions as a way of pushing the party leftwards. And not because it was nonsense. There have always been unofficial factions and the Liberal leaders have always claimed there are no factions and these Liberal leaders have always been cheered in affirmation. This time is different because the losing faction does not want to be forced out of power while it is on the back foot.