The two polls released this week, from ReachTEL and Essential Research, both landed bang on trend after bias adjustment, making for a dull old week in the world of BludgerTrack. All changes on the primary and two-party vote are minuscule, the seat projection is exactly as it was last week, and there are no new figures for the leadership ratings. The only thing that’s sort of worth mentioning is a vague stirring in the Palmer United vote, which the model records as peaking at 6.77% in July 2014, then suffering an uninterrupted decline to a low of 1.26% in July 2015, since which time it has recovered to its present level of 1.75%. Those craving a little more excitement from their polling are advised to look to the nearby posts on the Canning by-election and monthly Morgan state poll.
The Canning Report….
I knocked on another 150 or so doors today. Votes are moving – definitely moving.
The campaign is definitely registering too. Several people I met said they had received phone calls and had noted Labor’s themes. Awareness on crime and Lib cuts to police spending, anxiety around jobs and job protection, anger about cuts to pensions, health, education and urban transport are all registering.
Campaign morale is good…a lot of energy being brought to the job. As well, voters are really happy that some-one is taking notice of them. They all know this election is a big deal.
OC – the ICAC only overstepped its authority on a 2-1 decision of the Court of Appeal. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that was on the basis that a Premier could not be subject to investigation. I also recall that said Premier (Greiner) got into the witness box and spewed out the biggest barrage of “I can’t remembers” in Australian history. Bill Shorten would have loved to be able to do that.
US @ 1582
[Well, israels policies are very hostile toward Syria as they are perceived to be an enemy regime.]
And vice versa. Until the civil war broke out there was even greater hostility from Syria towards Israel.
But what has that got to do with the decision of Germany to take in large numbers of Syrian refugees? Not to mention refugees from other countries intermixed in that group, including refugees from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.
I don’t like sounding cynical. But I reckon Craig laundy does not mean what he says at all. His electorate is a natural Labor seat and on current projections would certainly revert back to its historical status. He is simply trying to garner sympathy from the progressive and urban migrant communities in his own electorate.
In any case, I reckon Reid will probably become notionally Labor after the redistribution. I never understood why it incorporated Drummoyne at the last redistribution.
Julian Burnside @JulianBurnside 2m2 minutes ago
When it comes to helping refugees, we are leaners, not lifters
briefly@1601
Onya Briefly.
Hang on in there, and give ’em heaps.
You are the best.
Laundy has been making a serious effort to soften his image.
The fact that a marginal seat holder is actively calling out the PM is indicative of the fact that he’s lost so much authority and that they know arguing against his policy positions is a survival strategy.
Briefly – are voters raising the China Free Trade Agreement?
TPOF
Well as I said, the civil war is essentially a proxy war between NATO/america/israel on one side and iran/Russia on the other side. Both are arming various local parties in Syria for their own geopolitical ends. Unfortunately, the biggest victims of this are syrian civilians themselves as they have no choice but to flee for safety. Consequently countries such Turkey and Jordan had to deal with millions of refugees, now they are heading into Europe, particularly Germany. Regrettably, the way things are going about 10 years down the track there will no civilians left in Syria and this will provide room for israel to expand its borders – this is perhaps the worst kept secret amongst international observers.
Steve777@1554
I’m pretty sure there are republics in the Commonwealth. India, South Africa and Singapore comes to mine.
Also I think the whole thing about the republic movement being a leftist agenda is a fallacy. There exists leftist monarchists and right-wing republicans.
briefly:
Thanks for that. I posted this earlier so you may not have seen it. According to the Census, Canning is the most unemployed electorate in WA:
http://www.mumble.com.au/fedelect13/wall/seats/CANN.HTM
Obviously the Census was a few years ago now, but still. Very interesting.
briefly,
How well is the Liberal campaign being run?
1606
don
Cheers don. Among the messages, the one that seems to get the best response from Labor-inclined voters is “It’s going to be difficult. The Libs start with a big margin. But we’re trying hard. We want to win. That’s why we’re here and asking for your support. We know this election counts.” Almost invariably I get a big smile and a firm handshake.
People want to be heard and Labor is the means for this to happen. I’ve done a lot of campaigning over the years. I can really say I’ve seldom encountered so much warmth in such unexpected places.
Here’s an interesting fact that I just gleaned from Dominic Lieven’s book The End of Tsarist Russia. If WW1 had finished at the beginning of 1918 the Germans would have undoubtedly won the war. The Treaty of Brest Livestock (sic) gave them everything they wanted. They had destroyed their main continental rival (Russia) and had seized the Ukraine, the heart of eastern central Europe. If the war at stopped at that point, Germany would have been the dominant power in Europe. All they needed was a stalemate on the Western Front, but didn’t get it.
briefly@1601
That is a lot of doors to knock on in a few hours. Are you sure of your count?
[The fact that a marginal seat holder is actively calling out the PM is indicative of the fact that he’s lost so much authority and that they know arguing against his policy positions is a survival strategy.]
Yes, that’s how it looks to me too. By going public with his views, Laundy also gets the support of Liberals like PvO who still subscribe to the broad philosophical position of the Liberal party, but who reject its stance on various issues (like SSM and boats) under Abbott’s leadership.
In short there can’t be much to lose by butting up against an unpopular leader like Abbott.
Confessions
Well, compared to 2 years ago – unemployment, national debt, poverty and homelessness have risen substantially. We have by far the highest household sector debt in the world, goods and services are severely unnafordable, our currency is rapidly losing value meaning we are uncompetitive in the global economy, we are heading toward an immediate recession and we no longer manufacture anything.
So much for the “liberals are better economic managers” meme.
US @ 1609
Sorry, not buying that.
Apart from the incredibly simplistic approach to problems in the Middle East being ALL the fault of the west and particularly the incredibly evil demonic regime of Israel (not to be confused with the Jews who form the bulk of Israel’s population), your initial throw-away attack on Israel as somehow being for/against/whatever to do with Germany’s compassionate response to this new wave of middle eastern refugees does not make sense.
It seems to me that you are one of those people who are so totally obsessed about the Israel/Palestine problem that you cannot put it into any proper context or proportion.
K17
Indee the court of appeal judgement was more a jurisdictional than a substantive matter. Greiner projected an image of being Mr Squeaky Clean but there was no doubt that he had inappropriately induced Metherall to rssign his seat through the offer of a government position which required a transparent appointment process.
From memory when Clover Moore and McDonald from Manly threatened to cause a baton change if he did not resign. I heard Windsor say a while ago that he had intended to continue to support Greiner – ironic given his later decision after the 2010 election.
[1612
cud chewer
briefly,
How well is the Liberal campaign being run?]
It’s very difficult to say. They have little or no on-ground activity but are spending lots of money on direct mail. Their problem is that everyone else – there are 12 candidates and a couple of interest groups – are spending lots of money the same way. Most of this just registers as junk mail. It all gets put in a heap and left largely undisturbed.
Hastie is an Abbott clone. This will certainly not help him. The campaign is very short. This is not helping us and it wont help the Libs either. Hastie is not a natural…Keogh is.
Raaraa@1610
There is also a republic that was never a British colony that joined the Commonwealth, Mozambique!
I vaguely recall there being another but am not sure.
The fact that the increases in the Syrian intake will not be an ‘increase’ but a re-allocation to Syrian refugees over others who need it.
So, while Germany takes in an additional 800,000… there will be no actual increase in our humanitarian intake, just stealing from Peter to pay Paul.
1615
bemused
Well over 4 hours in today’s stint…quite a few not home…Libs get a very quick “Thanks…cheerio!”…suburban streets…get to pass a few minutes at least with those who are interested…
TPOF
The israel lobby has a severely strangling influence over the US congress and manipulates American foreign policy for its own ends. Palestinians are not the only victims of this as such. The diplomatic hostility of the U.S Against Iran, the wars against Iraq Libya and Afghanistan, amongst countless other things can also largely be attributed to this.
[1611
confessions
briefly:
Thanks for that. I posted this earlier so you may not have seen it. According to the Census, Canning is the most unemployed electorate in WA:]
Jobs and ChAFTA definitely rank. Where I have been, there is wide mix of the affluent/comfortable and those who are battling.
briefly@1623
You set a cracking pace and obviously have a good technique.
A smart Lib would try to keep you talking. 😀
K17 @ 1614
[The Treaty of Brest Livestock (sic) ]
Love it!
Of course, that theory depends on the Allies being happy to have absolutely nothing to show for that incredible number of war dead. It would also mean the Germans withdrawing entirely back to its own borders, including Alsace and Lorraine. And that Belgium and France were happy to not be paid any reparations for a war fought entirely on their soil and not on German territory.
[So much for the “liberals are better economic managers” meme.]
Yes all that you’ve said is true. The seat also ranked 4th in WA for those employed in mining, so the end of the mining boom you’d expect that figure to have increased since the Census.
briefly
Nobody in your team should be content with a narrow loss saying it was a double digit swing. You should all be in it to win it.
Rwanda (formerly Belgian) is in the Commonwealth.WTF does the commonwealth mean?
From over the road a reminder that there are still remnants of the Liberal party of old. This from former Liberal party president John Valder last December.
[Tony Abbott will never learn. His harsh and inhumane policies on refugees, young people, the unemployed and so on have already (and deservedly) earned him acute unpopularity. Now he appoints his henchman Morrison to apply his blowtorch to all social welfare recipients.
One thing he can be sure of – he heads a one-term government. The untrustworthy Bill Shorten, of all people, is destined to become our next prime minister by absolute default.
Having once been NSW and federal president of the Liberal Party I have to say shame on you Abbott, Morrison and Hockey. You three may get your just desserts. But in the process you will have dumped on the entire Liberal Party community.
John Valder Bayview]
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-letters/savings-will-be-what-matters-to-scott-morrison-20141223-12crzz.html#ixzz3kwxTwFBz
bemused @ 1621: Rwanda. See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/rwanda/6685316/Rwanda-joins-the-Commonwealth.html.
East Timor has also expressed interest in joining: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2013/s3798537.htm.
The Commonwealth is bristling with republics: Namibia, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, Botswana, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka … There are also at least three Commonwealth countries with their own local monarch: Tonga, Lesotho and Swaziland.
briefly:
I am in mixed views about by-election night. While I’d love Labor to win the seat, as not only does it validate the work volunteers like you are doing, but serves as a smack in the face to the govt, I want Abbott to remain as Liberal leader for the next election. And as most everyone knows by now, Canning is a referendum on his leadership.
Thank you Tony Abbott
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/06/tony-abbott-says-australia-will-take-more-refugees-from-syria-and-iraq
And less from where?
briefly: Do you know if the Liberals are doing robocalls?
I have a “no junk mail” sign on my letterbox, and for years have made a point of giving my first preference to the candidate, if any, who honours my wishes. It’s usually someone with no money and no hope.
I’m struck by the contrast suggested in your comments between a capital intensive campaign by the Liberals and a labour intensive campaign by the ALP. If the ALP campaign works, it will be interesting to see if the Liberals try to catch up with such an approach at the general election. Presumably it’s harder to do when your government is on the nose: good people wouldn’t want to be associated with Mr Abbott, and the sorts of people who do, the TBAs of this world, would turn off more voters than they would turn on.
Oakeshott Country@1630
That’s the one I couldn’t think of. They are also adopting English as the official language.
Malaysia is an elective monarchy and is in the Commonwealth
US @ 1624
That bizarre ‘analysis’ reads like the synopsis of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion updated. No doubt that is where you got it from.
Re the Commonwealth: this map shows republics and monarchies in the Commonwealth:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_nations#/media/File:Commonwealth_realms_republics_and_monarchies.svg
TrueBlueAussie@1634
While not increasing our overall refugee intake.
So it is at the expense of others.
Typical Abbott.
Malcolm Fraser re-settled around 180k refugees, Bob Hawke took 40k after Tienamin. Even John Howard took in refugees from Bonia and various parts of the of Yogoslavian conflict.
Abbott proposes a refugee substitution plan seems rather underwhelming in the circumstances. There is a lazy 4 mill Syrian refugees.
Me thinks it might be timely for us to up our intake.
pedant@1636
Political parties are one of the few exemptions from having to respect such signs.
bemused,
it’s all a silly numbers game anyway. 13,500, 200,000 it doesn’t matter.
Ultimately it will be up to the Syrians to fix their own country up and drive ISIS from there.
During WW2 Aussies didn’t jump on boats to New Zealand when the Japanese were bombing and attacking us… we stood.. and fought.
The amount of refugees who are young, fit men heading into Europe is disturbing when they should be the ones staying to fight ISIS. Where are all the women and children by the way?
Confessions
The mining boom was a wasted opportunity for Australia. We could have spent the proceeds of it on upgrading our dilapidating infrastructure.
Instead howard chose not to tax them, and gave cash handouts on buying votes in marginal seats.
The howard government ironically was the highest taxing government in our history, despite the fact most people think that small businesses and corporations pay less tax under the coalition.
Howard also cancelled keatings rise of super to 15% to capitalise on the equities boom between 2003-07 to his eternal shame -easily the most irresponsible fiscal decision in post war history – if it wasn’t cancelled, our current chronic current account deficit would be less than half the size it is today, making it far more manageable by future governments.
TrueBlueAussie@1644
A further display of your ignorance.
Most of those refugees are fleeing the Assad Govt which is the force killing most Syrian civilians. ISIS is a lesser evil but has a better PR department and willing publicists like Abbott.
Briefly, does Labor have data on which households in Canning are worth targeting with door knocking and phone calls?
GG – 1642 – “a refugee substitution plan”
I see that in the UK there is a petition to swap TV “personality” Katie Hopkins (famous for saying she would use gunboats to stop refugees) for 50,000 refugees.
If we are to have a refugee substitution plan, maybe Bronnie could be the first swap (transported by helicopetr of course!)
[Me thinks it might be timely for us to up our intake.]
Yep as I said earlier Abbott gives the appearance of doing something to respond to Syria, while actually doing nothing in the overall scheme of things.
It’s quite embarrassing when you consider the response of other nations, and the dressing down we are getting in the international press for our policy responses over the last 2 years.
TPOF
I never read the elders of Zion synopsis, so I cannot judge it or comment on it here. But besides that, what I am stating is pretty obvious for anybody who cares to pay a bit of attention to world affairs and not consumed in the bubble we live in here in Australia.