Another bad Newspoll this week has kept the pressure on Tony Abbott, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has taken some of the edge off the formidable lead Labor opened up last week, thanks to softer results from Roy Morgan and Essential Research. The 0.7% shift on two-party preferred results in five seats changing hands on the seat projection, including one in every state except Western Australia. Despite that, the leadership ratings record further improvement for Bill Shorten, since Newspoll is the only one of the three to have provided a new result. Shorten has now opened up a small but clear lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, and there has been a solid uptick in his net approval rating while Tony Abbott continues to flounder.
Further:
• Keep an eye on this post for all your Canning by-election news needs, including a fresh batch of snippets posted just now, and a fairly intensive account of yesterday’s slightly perplexing ReachTEL result.
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Lisa Singh has been dumped to a theoretically unwinnable fourth position on the party’s Senate ticket, behind incumbents Anne Urquhart of the Left and Helen Polley of the Right, and – most contentiously – non-incumbent John Short, state secretary of the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who is set to take third place. The elevation of Short ahead of a factionally unaligned woman front-bencher (Singh is shadow parliamentary secretary for the environment, climate change and water) has not been well-received, but Bill Shorten says he will not seek to have the decision overturned by the party’s national executive. It’s worth noting, albeit just barely, that Tasmania is the state where it is least implausible that below-the-line voters might trump the order of the party-mandated Senate ticket, owing to the smaller number of candidates and voters’ familiarity with choosing between party candidates under the Hare-Clark system in state elections. This was known to happen in Tasmania in the decade after the present Senate electoral system was introduced in 1949, but it hasn’t come anywhere near occurring since the above-the-line voting option was introduced in 1984. The below-the-line voting rate was 10.34% in Tasmania at the 2013 election, compared with 3.51% nationally.
• The Greens in South Australia have suffered the embarrassment of having candidate interview reports for its Senate preselection leaked to the media. The contents suggest that the front-runner for a preselection to be determined on September 6 is Robert Simms, an Adelaide City councillor who was rated as “highly recommended” owing to a “combination of experience, vision and political skills”. Bension Siebert of InDaily reports that the remaining contenders were ranked into two categories, the more flattering of which was headed “competent”. This included “former Greens state parliamentary candidate Matthew Carey, state Hindmarsh Greens branch convenor Rebecca Galdies, and former federal Greens candidate and environmental lawyer Ruth Beach”. Then came “needs further development”, which applied to Sam Taylor, media adviser to state upper house MP Mark Parnell, and Adelaide Hills councillor Lynton Vonow. The report was the work of a panel including Mark Parnell and three other figures in the state party.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports that Jo Chapley, in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets, has “firmed as a Labor frontrunner to take on Christopher Pyne in Sturt”. However, the report also says that “other party figures are reluctant to push her for the Sturt pre-selection unless they can guarantee a lavish warchest from Labor’s national head office to run a genuine ‘marginal-seat-style’ campaign”.
• Steve Georganas has been confirmed as Labor candidate for the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until his defeat at the hands of current Liberal member Matt Williams in 2013, after the withdrawal of his sole preselection rival, Delia Brennan.
• My recent paywalled contributions to Crikey offer an account of the recent recovery in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, and early impressions of the Western Australian federal redistribution (despite what the headline says).
http://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/programs/listenlive.htm
The article gets worse!
[He spent Wednesday touring local schools and meeting with students, after joining the region’s truancy officers in rounding up children and delivering them to their classrooms.
He said the children he saw were capable of going to university if they kept the same enthusiasm throughout high school.]
Unbelievable.
lizzie @ 26: A referendum on SSM would be nothing but a blatant attempt on Mr Abbott’s part to stack the deck by bringing into play the double majority requirement for constitutional amendments. An example of how that could happen can be found in the 1977 simultaneous elections referendum, which was defeated despite a clear nationwide majority of over 62% being in its favour.
But there is a way of fighting back: in many countries, where elections looked like being manipulated, the opposition has simply called for a boycott of the polls.
That would be hard to achieve when voting is compulsory, but the alternative would be to call for a massive informal vote as a protest against the mechanism being adopted. Something similar happened at the Tasmanian power referendum in 1981, where there was a 35.5% informal vote, which really served to delegitimise the process.
Mr Abbott could then have his referendum, but it would be rendered essentially meaningless, enabling the issue to continue to be advanced through parliamentary mechanisms.
3aw is currently running a promo for Neil Mitchell’s show in which he is arguing with some old biddy about Tony Abbott. She is obviously a rusted on Liberal and is highly offended at Michell’s reference to Abbott as the worst communicating PM we have ever had.
Also on the 3aw news this morning it was revealed that Hockey did not consult Abbott before making his republic announcement. The wheels are really starting to fall off.
Darn:
Yep, the wheels definitely falling off:
[The announcement was made yesterday by Australian Republican Movement chairman Peter FitzSimons, who said Mr Hockey and ACT Labor senator Katy Gallagher would co-convene a parliamentary group to push for an Australian head of state.
This was news to Mr Hockey’s ministerial colleagues and the backbench.
Many were privately furious that he would introduce a new distraction when the Government needed to keep to its core messages ahead of the crucial Canning by-election.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/29358318/libs-aghast-at-hockey-s-republic-call/
Gillards two worst features were her patronizing manner of talking to the public as if we were fools, and her terrible political judgement.
The Abbott list would a lot longer.
How come everyone is talking referendum again? Isn’t it a plebiscite the Libs are proposing?
Dio
Of course NDIS and the like were ‘terrible political judgement’.
fess
[Wouldn’t voters prefer their PM is focused on delivering sound economic policy and good govt, not nailing or painting things?]
Exactly what I was thinking. Pollies (especially PMs) used to visit things, tour things, announce things, but who else has spent so much time trying to prove they’re just your average handyman? And failed at it. 😀
A PM has to get something right given the number of decisions they make. Of course Gillard never actually funded the NDIS though.
lizzie:
Martin Parkinson has warned that we’re hurtling towards a recession, but never mind, Abbott’s up north rounding up truanting children and Hockey’s wondering about a republic model.
#grownupgovernment
lizzie @ 59: The word around Canberra some time back was that Mr Abbott was spending so much time on out of town stunts (which he obviously enjoys) that he was failing to get properly across really serious issues which required his sustained attention.
I haven’t heard that criticism so much lately, but rather think that may be because with so much now going wrong, there’s more to criticise.
I’ll forgive Xenophon a lot if he manages to get a candidate to unseat Pyne.
[My own view is that people have made up their minds about Abbott, and they are prepared to change the govt in order to get rid of him. I can’t see him being able to turn the polls, no matter how much the media might bang on about how unpopular Shorten is.]
Completely agree with you Confessions.
I have this way out theory, that goes like this: in the last 170 polls in a row, the public have been trying to tell us something.
And they’re not lying en masse for shitz n giggles.
pedant
Abbott probably uses the stunts as creative avoidance of activities for which he is poorly equipped.
Like getting his head around complex issues.
30
Socrates
I agree on this as well. Instead of relying on guest workers we should be building up the skills – the human capital – in the permanent workforce.
Rightly or wrongly, Gillard was widely perceived to have opposed SSM legislation for opportunistic, factional reasons rather than genuinely held belief and hence attracted then and now more scorn on the issue than those whose change of stance was seen to reflect a real change of mind.
pedant
Dammit, he’s not supposed to enjoy himself! He’s supposed to knuckle down to the job. Most of the policies have been lifted from the IPA manifesto. When stuck for words, he reverts to the manic “We stopped the boats, the carbon tax, etc.” Seems he and Hockey are equally lazy.
Another Liberal who didn’t get the Credlin memo to stay on message of jobs and the economy.
[Federal Liberal MP Ian Goodenough is calling for migrants and Indigenous people to be recognised in the constitution.
The West Australian backbencher describes himself as being of Eurasian heritage and was born in Singapore, where his British forefathers had settled in the 1800s.
Mr Goodenough said the Japanese occupation of Singapore in World War II devastated the family but they slowly rebuilt their lives and moved to Australia.
He said he supported recognising Indigenous people in the constitution but wanted the contribution of families like his to be acknowledged too.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-27/liberal-mp-wants-migrants-indigenous-recognised-constitution/6727634
A quick look at Essential – given the Poll Bludger’s comments above: http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/essential.html
Has this been covered?!?
76% of Australians want a Plebiscite on Gay Marriage
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/08/17/majority-support-vote-on-gay-marriage–poll.html
Why does Penny Wong, Bill Shorten and whoever the Greens Leader is this week think they know what Aussies want?
[in the last 170 polls in a row, the public have been trying to tell us something.]
Abbott is now an object of ridicule. Even people at work or people I know who don’t engage with politics have a derisory opinion of him.
These stunts of painting community halls and rounding up wayward school kids just invites further ridicule.
How come everyone is talking referendum again? Isn’t it a plebiscite the Libs are proposing?
]
Abbott was asked about SSM, recently, probably yesterday and said a referendum was still very much a possibility.
He then asked someone to pass him some more nails.
I just hope he doesn’t think about middle east policy when he has just hit his thumb with a hammer.
[I’ll forgive Xenophon a lot if he manages to get a candidate to unseat Pyne.]
No greater love can a man have than to rid us all of that damn yapping poodle.
Reidy
Thanks. Abbott and the Libs are just getting worse and worse. How hard could it be for them to all say plebiscite or referendum together. They continually contradict each other.
Haters will hate ..snipers will snipe ..sexists will be sexist..
..but there’s been only ONE female PM..
Abbott and SSM is just the same old Abbott kick the tough ones down the road a bit and hope something comes up. Once a decision that it is a plebiscite is formalised then really curly questions like when? and how will it be framed? and how will you ensure the vote is enlivened through legislation? and the real killer – how can we trust you on any of this? come up.
Whilst it’s still nebulous and bullshit like people’s vote vs politician’s vote he can blather a bit and give the can another kick. Of course it doesn’t really help him as it just looks shifty and disorganised, but that’s better than getting into the details for Abbott. Hopefully something nice for him like a terrorist attack or a new war opportunity will come along and get everyone’s minds off the matter before he has to start dealing with details.
In light of the latest shooting of reporter and cameraman in the US, this view is one i hold too
[Dan Hodges
Dan Hodges – Verified account @DPJHodges
In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate. Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.
10:07 AM – 19 Jun 2015
24K RETWEETS18.1K FAVORITES]
In so many ways Toady is just Howard’s mangy chicken-like thing, come home to roost. Fortunately, he’s a distillation of the whole Murdoch-Tory Capitalist Elite, and will render these creatures as unelectable in Oz as the Republican finger-puppets in the US. Roll on 2016.
Brenda Loots at 5
Love your optimism, Charlie Edwards (3), but from the experience with the Howard years, a few percentage points are easily recovered with either
– a few dollars thrown the way of middle Australia
– a threat or, better still, a war flaring up somewhere
– a focus point for anger of disadvantage being directed at an internal or external minority (there’s still a bit of juice left in boat people, even)
I agree with you on all those points. I just feel though that Abbott is nothing if not consistent & he will undounbtedly continue to implode & the goid voters of Oz I think are demonstrating significant buyers remorse that even the above factors are unlikely to save him. Another candidate however might prove more challenging but in any case, I feel that the portents are positive. We’ll keep our fingers crossed.
markjs @ 76: I remember Katherine West, a political scientist and commentator from a bygone era, asserting in a lecture at ANU back in the late 1970s that Australia had once had a transvestite PM. She didn’t say who it was, but if I remember rightly attributed the information to another commentator now long gone from the scene, Douglas Wilkie.
[confessions
Posted Thursday, August 27, 2015 at 8:36 am | PERMALINK
The article gets worse!
He spent Wednesday touring local schools and meeting with students, after joining the region’s truancy officers in rounding up children and delivering them to their classrooms.
He said the children he saw were capable of going to university if they kept the same enthusiasm throughout high school.
Unbelievable.]
I think Abbott is coming close to losing it completely. Of course stunts are his way of life and were part of his electioneering when in opposition. However a Prime Minister is supposed to be seriously dealing with a host of issues relayed to running the country and stunts should be very few and far between.
Given his appalling personal and party polling, open discord in the ministry as well as a host of serious problems facing Australia, it seems that Abbott has virtually given up on finding solutions and has retreated into his comfortable shell. Hence the series of stunts in the Torres Strait, still talking about a SSM referendum, endlessly mentioning carbon tax and other behaviour on an endless loop that has nothing to do with governing Australia effectively and wisely.
He knows that he is on borrowed time and instead of trying to secure his position as PM, he is increasingly wandering off into wonderland.
TBA
[Why does Penny Wong, Bill Shorten and whoever the Greens Leader is this week think they know what Aussies want?]
Because, idiot, they are elected as Members of Parliament by those same Aussies.
What’s the point of having a Parliament if the government of the day fobs off all difficult decisions to a plebiscite.
This government doesn’t know how to walk and chew gum at the same time. Talking about SSM is a distraction. Talking about a republic is a distraction.
They’re always too busy just hanging onto their jobs, when will they ever have time to talk about anything else? Isn’t it part of their job to foster discussions?
victoria@78
You *really* wonder what planet they are on, FFS –
[Americans Are “Fired Up” About First Commercially Available Flamethrowers
while it’s semi automatic handguns and assault rifles that have been at the center of the debate thus far, there’s another type of weapon that, although currently legal, may come under scrutiny soon, which is leaving some enthusiasts “fired up” so to speak, about getting in before regulations close the market: flamethrowers.
…two companies now selling the first commercially available flamethrowers in the United States..
…Business is skyrocketing
…”I’m a huge supporter of personal freedom and personal responsibility. Own whatever you like, unless you use it in a manner that is harmful to another or other’s property
…Why does one need a handheld flamethrower, you ask? Here are some “ideas” from the Ion Productions’ official XM42 website:
start your bonfire from across the yard
kill the weeds between your cracks in style
clearing snow/ice
controlled burns/ground-clearing of foliage/agricultural
insect control
…And don’t worry all you lefties out there, in the FAQ section the answer to the question “Is there a left handed model?” is emphatically “yes.” ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-26/americans-are-fired-about-first-commercially-available-flamethrowers
[Gillards two worst features were her patronizing manner of talking to the public as if we were fools, and her terrible political judgement.]
Dio, I think if you look back at the actual i/vs and speeches, she tended to talk to journalists in a patronising manner like they were fools … not so much with the public. Actual interactions with the electorate were renowned for being engaging.
Unfortunately, many did not discern the difference because the media liked to play it up since they were the targets.
TBA
People have realised that the only way around the obstacle that is the Coalition is to take the decision into their own hands.
dave
[…And don’t worry all you lefties out there, in the FAQ section the answer to the question “Is there a left handed model?” is emphatically “yes.” ]
OMG 😆 😆
Could we please undo the apron strings that tie us to USA for Deefence? They are adolescents.
Diogenes
“Gillard spoke to the public in a patronising way”
Yes I noted that, the day she answered questions for more than an hour till the gallery ran out of questions. Most patronising she was that day!!!!
So Diogenes joins the anti Gillard bullshit whingers from last night. Any more? Surely there are a few more PBers who want to come on down and lay the boot into her.
Here’s an idea ….. let’s just hitch her reputation to Abbott’s and say “they were the equally worst two PMs ever.”
See how easy it is to write utter bullshit ….. any fool can do it.
FMD Now that’s a real surprise.
dave @ 85: Also the perfect Christmas gift for anyone whose garage has been infested with possums.
[ BK
Posted Thursday, August 27, 2015 at 7:50 am | Permalink
Just looking at the pictures make one want to vomit!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/10-million-splurge-to-rename-australian-border-force-20150825-gj7rz2.html
]
Maybe its just me …..but I strongly dislike the BLACK uniforms that this Border Force ….. and also the Victorian Police ( away from the friendly pale blue ) have adopted. I am sure its an ‘intimidating’ look that they hope to project – but I keep expecting to see SS insignia on their lapels ….
[Americans Are “Fired Up” About First Commercially Available Flamethrowers]
None of these little blowtorches for your crepe suzette, you could bring your own flame thrower into the restaurant kitchen and show them how it is really done.
[ Meanwhile In Greece, Pension Funds Tap Emergency Loans
This has not been a great year to be a pensioner in Greece.
…in short, the pension funds are broke as is the contingency fund meant to guarantee payouts from those funds.
So Greece, we truly do wish you the best of luck and as you head back to the polls next month ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/meanwhile-greece-pension-funds-tap-emergency-loans
[13
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Thursday, August 27, 2015 at 7:34 am | PERMALINK
Maybe it is safe for me to reappear again.]
What a peculiar statement.
dave
Tsipras and Varoufakis ripped any remaining cash out of the funds while they playing stupid buggers with the Greek economy.
dave@85 & lizzie@88: a bit poignant, given that the US were really the first to use flamethrowers in large scale warfare (in the Pacific & Korea). By Viet Nam they were using napalm instead. “That smell. Smells like victory…some day this war’s gonna end…”. Not if the NRA can help it.
They’ll be no referendum on gay marriage. The Constitution already provides the power for Parliament to legislate in this area. Abbott is just being Abbott. And, as he almost certainly won’t be PM after the next election there’s little point in wasting time on his pathetic waffling.
[“Because, idiot, they are elected as Members of Parliament by those same Aussies.
What’s the point of having a Parliament if the government of the day fobs off all difficult decisions to a plebiscite.”]
Well the Parliament has voted down gay marriage multiple times now.
Why won’t the lefties accept the Parliamentary mandate?
See this is the problem. The gay lobby say we need Parliament to vote on it only… yet when they do, the gay lobby refuse to accept the outcome.
Even with a free vote Gay Marriage won’t pass.
So the Gay Lobby either need to accept the will of the Parliament or accept a Plesbiscite.
[phoenix
Posted Thursday, August 27, 2015 at 9:54 am | PERMALINK
BK
Posted Thursday, August 27, 2015 at 7:50 am | Permalink
Just looking at the pictures make one want to vomit!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/10-million-splurge-to-rename-australian-border-force-20150825-gj7rz2.html
Maybe its just me …..but I strongly dislike the BLACK uniforms that this Border Force ….. and also the Victorian Police ( away from the friendly pale blue ) have adopted. I am sure its an ‘intimidating’ look that they hope to project – but I keep expecting to see SS insignia on their lapels ….]
Judging from photographs, it seems that many police forces in the US have black uniforms. Maybe there is a psychological basis for choosing that colour.
On the other hand, police on the beat in China have blue uniforms.
Barrie Cassidy with Jon Faine on ABC segment discussed The Commish. Say he has probably delayed his decision until tomorrow to enable enough time for Govt to organise another Commish