James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). However, Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have slumped again, with approval down one to 27% and disapproval up five to 59%, while Tony Abbott’s are unchanged at 33% and 60%. Abbott has also opened up a 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, after a tied 39-39 result last time.
This is the second Newspoll for The Australian by Galaxy Research, using a combination of automated phone and online polling. It was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with a sample of 1638. Full tables from The Australian here.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely no change on voting intention in Essential Research this week, which has Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. The poll also finds 48% expect the current parliament will run its full term, compared with 25% who expect an early election. Further questions find a strong view in favour of renewable energy over coal, and a belief that the government is excessively favouring the latter. Fifty per cent of respondents were of the view that the government should prioritise renewables over coal versus on 6% for the other way around, with 28% opting that both should be treated equally. When asked an equivalent question about the actual position of the government, the respective results were 12%, 49% and 13%. Respondents also came down heavily in favour of gun control, with only 6% deeming current laws too strong and 45% rating them not strong enough, with 40% opting for “about right”.
[…whatever his faults, Cameron is not as loony as Abbott…]
But every bit as nasty.
[Thirdly, Abbott may decide that the ship goes down with the captain and call an election.]
Seems an early election is looking more and more likely.
[TPOF
There is hardly a good word that can be found for {Abbott} and his leadership, even among his supporters.]
Worse, they are not defending him, and trying hard to change the subject.
His PMship is ashes.
73
SYRIZA should have had a back-up plan in the event of the referendum not working. Not having a reason for the Germans to give a better deal, because it would cause pain to Germany not to give a better deal, was fatal and stupid. Either leave the Eurozone or print Euros (with issuing numbers from more than just Greece, certainly Germany and probably the whole Eurozone) and send them around the world.
[98
Tom the first and best]
Fourth, they have to deal with the truckload of shit policies as well.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 30m30 minutes ago
…. & following a strong Coalition last week in parliament plus the TURC, Coalition still trails 47-53 TPP
]
I still don’t get where the myth of the strong last week in parliament comes from.
@JR/106
Did Abbott rename the Party? Then AEC should be notified.
This must be in relation to the “Strong” slogan they been spouting.
[I still don’t get where the myth of the strong last week in parliament comes from]
From the same turkeys trying to spin this latest arse-spanking as a further decline for Shorten.
“I still don’t get where the myth of the strong last week in parliament comes from.”
It’s true – you can smell it a mile away.
For those who missed the Butler smack down of Alan Jones here is a few paragraphs with Lambie thrown in.
Alan Jones talking crap…
coal-fired power. It is about $79 a kilowatt hour. Wind power is about $1,502 a kilowatt hour. That is unaffordable. If you take that power and feed it into the grid, every person watching this program has electricity bills going through the roof.
Jacque Lambie saying he is wrong (or maybe the opposite, it’s hard to tell)
Okay because Germany’s gone ahead in leaps and bounds, they are paying 38 cents a kilowatt for their energy so it does raise energy. Every bit of your power bills you are paying about 3.6% of that into renewable. That’s what you are paying.
Mark Butler talking sense.
A significant reason why we have a problem is people like Alan Jones and other media identities talking down renewable energies. Getting the Prime Minister on talk about how we wanted to reduce, he had to spell it REDUCE, Labor is going to INCREASE with taxpayers’ money –
10:33 PMSCATTERED APPLAUSE.
You get Tony Abbott in there, I don’t know what stick you hit them with, they say stupid things like it will push up power prices. Tony Abbott’s own hand picked panel led by Dick Warburton, even his panel said power prices would be higher without the Renewable Energy Target than with the Renewable Energy Target because pushing all of that additional electricity into the system depresses wholesale power prices and is good for all households and all businesses. We need a serious reboot to the community debate. It is no just politicians, it is media identities like you Alan.
Alan Jones: Do you think these outfits would invest in renewable energy if there wasn’t massive subsidies by the taxpayer?
Butler:
Do you think the coal-fired power stations appear overnight? The price of coal-fired power, they were all built under taxpayer dollars, fully (inaudible), you are comparing apples with oranges.
10:35
APPLAUSE
taken from tveeder.com
.
The latest report in the Guardian on Bronnhilde:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/20/bronwyn-bishop-defiant-despite-more-charter-flights-adding-to-expenses-row
My favourite bits are:
[Bishop’s chief of staff and spokesman Damien Jones said: “I can confirm that the Speaker is defiantly contesting the next election in Mackellar.”]
Begging the question of who Bishop is defying by contesting the next election.
and Tony Burke belling the probationary cat:
[Labor’s manager of opposition business Tony Burke has written to the prime minister to ask about the details of the Speaker’s probation period, given there was no parliamentary precedent for probation.
“I ask that you provide further information to clarify how being on probation will impact on authority over Parliament House and the House of Representatives; role when Parliament resumes; entitlement reporting responsibilities; and additional salary apportioned to the Speaker’s role,” the letter said.
“I also ask that you provide information on the duration of the probation, the consequences of the Speaker breaching any conditions of the probation, how any breaches of the probation will be reported to the Australian public and how the status of the probation could be affected by any investigation conducted by the department of finance or the Australian federal police.”]
I can just imagine Abbott’s face when he sees that letter. The only question is who will foot the bill for the hole in the wall.
Probation indeed!
Someone’s parked in BBishop’s spot.
https://www.facebook.com/hit107/photos/a.139507719411530.22079.135909349771367/1142835685745390/?type=1
😀
[Labor’s manager of opposition business Tony Burke has written to the prime minister to ask about the details of the Speaker’s probation period, given there was no parliamentary precedent for probation.]
LOL. Madam Probationary Speaker!
Anyone running a book on the first Labor member to get booted for waving a red P on a white background at Bronnie in QT?
Thanks for that Phill@110
Burke did well correcting AJ
And which prison will be deprived of a social worker/counsellor to make one available to guide and monitor Bronwny’s behaviour during the probationary period.
Will there be any program requirements, and will she be required to carry out any unpaid community service work.
Perhaps as fire spotter on a State Emergency Service helicopter?
teh_drewski #114
No contest. Nick Champion.
That Tony Burke’s a funny guy. I think it was him I once heard give a dissertation on the Warren Truss.
So what do you do when you’ve wasted $60 million odd? If you’re Abbott I suppose you just keep throwing more in.
111
It is not for the PM to put the Speaker on probation. The Speaker is an officer of the House of Representatives, not a government minister. Only the HoR can deal with the Speaker`s employment, the PM putting the speaker on probation is a breach of the separation of powers.
[So what do you do when you’ve wasted $60 million odd? If you’re Abbott I suppose you just keep throwing more in.]
It doesn’t bother him. It’s our money.
Millenial #117 –
I’m backing Graham Perrett
Who here is boasting of slaying a Dragon?
This couod be WAR!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/20/claims-australia-paid-people-smugglers-seen-as-essential-priority-by-police
AFP ruled allegations about return of vessels to Indonesia could have ‘high’ impact on Australian society, after they were referred by Greens senator
Have noticed the distinct lack of preferred lib leader polls, particularly given libspill & govt trailing.
What frequency of preferred ALP leader Newspolls did Gillard have compared to Abbott?
Fact Checking Alan Jones
When Jones – thanks Phil Vee – made the following claim
[ It (coal fired) is about $79 a kilowatt hour. Wind power is about $1,502 a kilowatt hour. That is unaffordable. If you take that power and feed it into the grid, every person watching this program has electricity bills going through the roof.]
I am sorry Alan, but that is complete crap and doesn’t stand the pub test, let alone any sort of rigorous analysis.
Firstly, the pub test.
It is commonly acknowledged that wind power is marginally cheaper than solar, and yet small scale (the most expensive) is sufficiently cheaper to warrant installation of 185,890 systems in Australia in 2014. Many of these were in QLD after it dumped it’s solar bonus scheme. If wind were that much more expensive, then there wouldn’t be any new wind projects, only large scale solar.
Secondly, a more rigorous analysis.
Actual numbers from a 2013 study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
[This new ranking of Australia’s energy resources is the product of BNEF’s Sydney analysis team, which comprehensively modelled the cost of generating electricity in Australia from different sources. The study shows that electricity can be supplied from a new wind farm at a cost of AUD 80/MWh (USD 83), compared to AUD 143/MWh from a new coal plant or AUD 116/MWh from a new baseload gas plant, including the cost of emissions under the Gillard government’s carbon pricing scheme. However even without a carbon price (the most efficient way to reduce economy-wide emissions) wind energy is 14% cheaper than new coal and 18% cheaper than new gas.
“The perception that fossil fuels are cheap and renewables are expensive is now out of date”, said Michael Liebreich, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “The fact that wind power is now cheaper than coal and gas in a country with some of the world’s best fossil fuel resources shows that clean energy is a game changer which promises to turn the economics of power systems on its head,” he said.]
So Alan Jones Q&A numbers fail the pub test as well as rigorous analysis.
http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil-fuels-in-australia/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
What started the love of charter flights.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishops-expensive-love-affair-with-charter-flights-began-nearly-two-decades-ago-20150720-gigbmu.html
Stephanie Peatling says Chopper is taking us all for a ride.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishops-expensive-love-affair-with-charter-flights-began-nearly-two-decades-ago-20150720-gigbmu.html
Steph continues on by saying Bronny joins Abbott on probation.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/speaker-bronwyn-bishop-joins-prime-minister-tony-abbott-on-probation-20150720-gig7vb.html
Peter Reith has written a pretty good summary of where Bronny stands.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bronwyn-bishops-survival-depends-on-tony-abbotts-calculations-20150720-gigatt.html
Meanwhile Labor is preparing for proposing a no confidence motion at the resumption of parliament.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-prepares-no-confidence-motion-to-blast-on-probation-bronwyn-bishop-out-of-speakers-chair-20150720-gig2xc.html
Abbott’s approach on Bronny will end in tears.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/former-liberal-leader-john-hewson-critical-of-tony-abbotts-response-to-bronwyn-bishop-expenses-scandal-20150719-gifita.html
Mike Baird has issued a dire warning on health funding.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mike-bairds-dire-warning-on-health-funding-20150720-gigmmz.html
And this was while ambulances were queued up at hospitals there.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/urgent-measures-put-in-place-as-delays-cause-chaos-in-health-system-20150720-gig9sf.html
Lots of unsavoury stuff uncovered at the Senate inquiry into Nauru detention.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sanitary-products-handed-out-by-male-guards-asylum-seekers-given-illfitting-clothing-on-nauru-senate-inquiry-hears-20150720-gigf1o.html
Transfield copped quite a serve at the inquiry.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/07/20/private-firm-running-nauru-detention-centre-accused-passing-buck-abuse-allegations
Section 2 . . .
Will our dollar follow the trajectory of Canada’s and plunge to under 60 cents US?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-tipped-to-drop-below-us60-in-canadianstyle-plunge-20150720-gifttg
An arrest warrant has been issued for Nathan Tinkler.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/nathan-tinkler-fails-to-appear-in-court-arrest-warrant-issued-20150720-gig3ft.html
Economists have warned the Abbott government to not lower taxes any more until we are safely in surplus.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/economists-warn-abbott-government-should-not-cut-taxes-until-budget-in-surplus-20150720-gigggd.html
Does the image of mathematics need a makeover?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/it-doesnt-add-up-theres-no-proof-maths-cant-be-accessible-for-everyone-20150720-gigb1z.html
Michael Pascoe floats the idea of an HST – Health Services Tax.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/gst-hst-would-be-a-healthy-way-to-sell-a-tax-increase-20150720-gigmeo.html
“View from the Street” asks just how long Bronny has left as Speaker. He also touches on the Nauru inquiry.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-so-how-long-has-bronwyn-bishop-got-as-speaker-then-20150720-gigimz.html
A Speaker “on probation” cannot remain Speaker.
http://theaimn.com/a-speaker-on-probation-cannot-remain-a-speaker/
Why is the rate of organ donation in Australia so abysmally low?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/failure-to-boost-organ-transplants-a-death-sentence-for-some-20150720-gig0ui.html
A truly independent speaker could renew our parliamentary democracy. If only!
https://theconversation.com/a-truly-independent-speaker-could-renew-australias-parliamentary-democracy-44915
Peter Martin says Abbott is only ruling out negative gearing changes for political reasons and that Labor might well be on the money with its proposal.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/negative-gearing-works-if-its-done-properly-20150720-gifwom
Section 3 . . .
One year on and the resurgence of emissions is very clear.
https://theconversation.com/one-year-on-from-the-carbon-price-experiment-the-rebound-in-emissions-is-clear-44782
Nice work Tone. US climate change deniers give us a big tick.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/abbott-government-gets-a-big-tick-from-us-climate-denialists,7961
From his sick bed Bob Ellis gives us the 14 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/07/20/the-fourteen-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday299/
Cathy Wilcox at the Retreat.
Ron Tandberg has a dig at the Republicans.
Lovely work again from David Pope.
Mark Knight has Bronze Bronny taking a big bite out of Abbott’s poll numbers.
David Rowe and the timely political salvation of Bill Shorten.
Anyone know what this is about?
[BARNABY Joyce ordered his secretary to delete an explosive email from the head of his department that was critical of the minister and would-be deputy prime minister.]
Morning all. Trog you beat me to it – those “facts” quoted by Alan Jones are out of date and extremely misleading even at the time the Productivity Commission allegedly published them in 2010 (I looked and can’t find them). They compare the cost of power from an existing coal plant to a new wind plant. Wind power has lower running costs than coal. The only way you can claim coal is cheaper than wind is if you compare the new supply cost to the old supply cost. Compare old with old, wind has a lower generating cost. Compare new with new, wind is again cheaper.
Rudd and Gillard should both kick themselves for not reforming the Productivity Commission, which has produced some bad economics under its Costello ideological mandate.
Where was the pursuit of Tony by the media on this one?
[Labor MP Pat Conroy, who chairs the party’s Waste Watch committee, said it was an “appalling look” and demanded Mr Abbott detail his work commitments or have the Liberal Party repay the cost of the VIP flight. The VIP jets can cost about $4000 an hour to operate.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/questions-over-tony-abbotts-vip-flight-to-melbourne-to-attend-donors-birthday-bash-20150324-1m61zz.html#ixzz3gTDssAfZ
Lizzie
The results of his cognition test?
Regarding this poll 53/47, now I am doubly annoyed at Bronwyn Bishop. Not only has she wasted thousands of taxpayer dollars on her private travel expenses. She has just wasted $60 million of taxpayer dollars on a union RC designed to give the Liberals a poll boost.
At this point I would prefer this guy as PM to either the incumbent or the alternative.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/mike-baird-uses-six-words-to-shame-tony-abbott-and-co-in-the-leadership-stakes-20150720-gifzvt
Is there no politician with a coherent vision and plan for Australia after the about-to-arrive phase 2 of the GFC?
Morning all.
Colin Barnett joins Baird in wanting the GST increased.
[Colin Barnett has backed a GST overhaul that includes extending the tax to online goods and fresh food, stripping some exclusions around education and lifting the rate to 12.5 per cent.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/28934061/barnett-backs-gst-increase/
Socrates @130
Thanks for additional info there.
Once the infrastructure costs of wind and solar are amortised, ongoing costs are just maintenance, as there is no fuel cost.
A very simple point, but one which needs to be driven home whenever this “high cost of electricity from renewables’ furphy is raised.
[Colin Barnett joins Baird in wanting the GST increased.]
Amazing that there are so many liberal leaders with more courage than joe and tony. poor poor show chaps.
Perhaps Bronnie will step down on the understanding that she will get a (probationary) Damehood.
If the GST includes fresh food, that will surely affect sales at farm gates, farmers’ markets, – more paperwork.
WWP:
Baird isn’t that courageous. He could’ve told NSW voters all this before the state election.
confessions
[ He could’ve told NSW voters all this before the state election. ]
But … but … Tony hadn’t told him to raise this issue back then!
As the GST is a regressive tax that impacts more heavily on lower income persons than higher income persons any increase in either the rate or scope of the TAX!!!! will increase inequality in this country.
Which is why Liberals are proposing such.
Rather than clearly less oppressive alternatives as outlined by several people here eg cancelling various forms of subsidies for the rich that currently exist eg negative gearing, family trust lurks, concession rates for superannuation just to name 3.
It pisses me off that the media and its tame premiers prefer to talk up increases in GST rather than advocate the far more preferable alternatives.
Weak and nasty.
The Stephen Bradbury analogy is perhaps a tad overused, but if ever it applied to a political leader, it applies to Tony Abbott. In 2008 he was a marginalized figure within his own party. Then Nelson, Turnbull, Rudd and Gillard all fell over in succession and, even though the public didn’t like or trust him, he became PM.
The other thing that worked for him apart from everyone else falling over was the tight campaigning/media management strategy which he, Credlin and Loughnane imposed on himself and his party.
So he won in 2013. And, as is usual, his party had a whole lot of things it wanted to do in government. Some of them, eg, the Medicare.co-payment or the tightening up of disability support payments, eemed ok to me (but not to most of you lefties, I acknowledge). Several, eg the six month waiting period for the dole and the changes to university fee arrangements – were ill-conceived and needed years more work to become palatable.
Due to the tight campaign strategy, they hadn’t talked much to the Australian people about these policies before they launched them as a job lot in the 2014 Budget, without an ounce of any preliminary dialogue with the Australian people to pave the way. So, unsurprisingly, they came a total cropper.
Their response to this was not to start a dialogue with the people on reform (eg, as Mike Baird and Jay Weatherill have just done re the GST), but to retreat into a small target strategy in most areas, apart from “death cult/they’re coming to get you”. In other words, back to the pre-2013 Opposition approach.
Last night’s Newspoll suggest that this strategy has failed. Of course, one of the essential elements of a small target strategy is “no gaffes”. Abbott never really achieved this as opposition leaders (look at the John Oliver video to remind yourself) but his periodic gaffes were crowded off the stage by Rudd vs Gillard.
Shorten has been disciplined enough to keep the spotlight off him most of the time. And Abbott has also found, to his cost, that a gaffe by a government draws more, and more lasting attention, than a gaffe by an opposition leader.
So what do Abbott/Credlin/Loughnane do now? Hope for Labor leadership problems to emerge? (The Australian tried to help today with an out there conspiracy involving a Plibersek and – god bless him! – RichardMarles leadership ticket orchestrated by the ghost of Wayne Swan. Based it would seem on who is whose Facebook friends!)
Failing that, what more rabbits can they pull out of hats?
Perhaps if they abandon the John Howard playbook, they could try going back to Fraser’s 1977 “fistful of dollars”. Hockey has hinted at forthcoming tax cuts, but how can these possibly be afforded? And, more importantly, how can they convince the public that they are affordable? (Labor could remind voters what happened to Fraser’s tax cuts after the 1977 election: it’s the event that got Howard his nickname of “Honest John”).
Interesting times ahead.
lizzie
Agree.
GST on fresh food should be resisted for ethical as well economic reasons.
– basic food is not a discretionary item, so a tax on it is particularly regressive
– penalising fresh food consumption with a GST will have negative effects on the health budget and makes no economic sense
The naughty Oz is playing leadershit… touting Plibersek.
Interesting newspoll results.
The TURC has clearly damaged both Bill Shorten (due to a perceived ‘shiftiness’) and the Govt (for it’s political use of the RC) in the eyes of the respondents.
The revelations of the Speakers greed wouldn’t have helped the Govt either.
Bill Shorten must RADICALLY change his style of leadership into something the people can believe in.
BW – GG desperate to change the subject.
[A report has highlighted a strong link in Western Australia between disadvantage and poor access to the internet.
The research also found people living in the most disadvantaged areas of WA were eight times more likely to have spent time in prison.
The Dropping off the Edge report ranks local government areas by a range of measures linked to quality of life, including access to jobs, education, medical services, internet and involvement in the criminal system.
In WA, the communities that ranked the most poorly are clustered in the Kimberley, the Gascoyne and the Goldfields.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-21/report-reveals-link-between-poor-internet-and-disadvantage-in-wa/6635110
If the parliamentary duopoly were serious about addressing existing tax evasion there’d be no need to touch the GST.
Neither Baird nor Barnett nor any other premier advocating a GST increase are courageous. They spend the money but do not collect it.
They are not advocating imposing State government income taxes.
[The Australian tried to help today with an out there conspiracy involving a Plibersek and – god bless him! – RichardMarles leadership ticket orchestrated by the ghost of Wayne Swan. Based it would seem on who is whose Facebook friends!]
The high and mighty mainstream news media trawling social media for stories? How comedownment!