Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Both leaders’ ratings remain at rock bottom, but the second Newspoll survey conducted by Galaxy finds Labor retaining a solid lead on two-party preferred.

James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). However, Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have slumped again, with approval down one to 27% and disapproval up five to 59%, while Tony Abbott’s are unchanged at 33% and 60%. Abbott has also opened up a 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, after a tied 39-39 result last time.

This is the second Newspoll for The Australian by Galaxy Research, using a combination of automated phone and online polling. It was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with a sample of 1638. Full tables from The Australian here.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely no change on voting intention in Essential Research this week, which has Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. The poll also finds 48% expect the current parliament will run its full term, compared with 25% who expect an early election. Further questions find a strong view in favour of renewable energy over coal, and a belief that the government is excessively favouring the latter. Fifty per cent of respondents were of the view that the government should prioritise renewables over coal versus on 6% for the other way around, with 28% opting that both should be treated equally. When asked an equivalent question about the actual position of the government, the respective results were 12%, 49% and 13%. Respondents also came down heavily in favour of gun control, with only 6% deeming current laws too strong and 45% rating them not strong enough, with 40% opting for “about right”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,444 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. ModLib is trolling again (still).

    “should Laborites be funded to attend National Conference?” ……… As she knows they should and do have the same rule that applies to all registered parties.

  3. Matt #33
    And then there’s also the fact that Australia is only producing so much – about enough food to feed 60m people – where the markets we’d like to be competitive in have several billion people.

  4. This is an epic thumping for the coalition after the TURC revelations.

    I told you no one would care.

    Here’s the story, LNP: Your man’s a dud. A useless dud.
    He WILL lose to Shorten and the ALP. Thats what 18 months of poll deficits inevitably lead to.
    You have maybe 3 months to get a better leader.

  5. Excellent poll results for Labor. Keeps things from moving away from 52-48 in the trend.

    QandA was excellent value tonight. It really showed the value of not having LNP sitting members on the panel.

  8. Boerwar

    Since the rudimentary policies of parties are argued out at their National Conferences, this can be seen as the first major step in the evolution of the legislation they intend to pass.

    So there is a rationale for tax payer funding, and it is part of the same rationale that argues for taxpayer funded elections.

  10. psyclaw #51
    That’s a bit unfair to say psyclaw… Happiness was only alluding to a question that Alan Jones (and TBA) were asking.

    Which I personally think is a misleading question since, as you say, all registered parties are applicable for charter privileges to their national conferences; and the question should’ve been broadened to include this detail.

  11. The warnings about the viability of the National Party are on the money. Not on the time table in my view though.

    However I do not have a way to gauge the reaction to voter intentions thanks to this.

  13. [labor should immediately move on to abbott’s dodgy claim history]

    Judging by the way Butler demolished Jones on renewables they could also go positive.

  14. [What I am seeing in the polls is that Shorten is suffering from dissatisfaction and disapproval not only from rusted on Libs as you would expect, but also from the left. The thing is though that a lot of people telling pollsters they are not satisfied with Shorten are absolutely not prepared to support the Coalition, and certainly not under Abbott. So, as things stands, Shorten’s approval numbers are not an issue for Labor. However, if the Liberals were to bite the bullet and change leaders, Labor may well find themselves having to consider doing this also, but that is a big if.]

    Yeah I wouldn’t be so confident that the Coalition changing leaders would make a big difference. We agree that a lot of dissatisfaction with Shorten is lefties who want to see him beat Abbott up.

    It’s a long bow to draw that these people are just anti-Abbott and that any old Lib would get them excited to vote Tory. Turnbull (for reasons I can’t fathom) might appeal to some if he went early, but the other likely options are just likely to make them just as angry at Shorten for not gouging his (and lets face it Bish Jnr is no shot) eyes out.

    There will be a pox on both houses element in the disengaged middle that might be swingable back to team Blue, but disunity, knifing first term leaders and ‘hey we wanted to kill Tony ourselves’ are just as likely to leave them even further in the hole.

    No one in Labor should worry about Shorten’s sat ratings until after he becomes PM. The mere act of replacing Abbott should give them a massive boost. So long as he is half competent in the job and has his team playing together he’ll be fine.

  16. I thought Qand A was quite watchable. Didn’t agree with everything said (and you DO have to take Alan Jones’s statistics with a large grain of salt) but in general it benefited from the lack of the bullshit and spin that Coaliton ministers usually bring along with them.

    The better vibe and more interesting show is quite noticeable by now, after several weeks of Coalition absence.

    Keep ’em out! Abbott did us all afavour by self-banning.

  17. Yes, I don’t have any problem with the ALP caucus going to the ALP conference on taxpayer funding. What I don’t like is that the polls themselves decide what they can and can’t claim.

    Why not give them an allowance based on their position/role and their home (travel cost to Perth vs Sydney from Canberra etc).

    Then the politician can spend or not spend as they like. If they don’t spend much and just stay and work in their electorate they do well and get reelected. If they swan around in Europe its on their own money and it runs out.

  18. H

    I have not seen the Nationals support base as angry as I have see over this mine.

    However that may be localised. Which is why I say it may take longer than predicted on the panel. However I think those commentators are correct. The decline has started just look at rise of independents and Greens taking Nationals seats in State elections.

  19. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/greece-debt-crisis-live-nobel-prize-winning-economist-paul-krugman-admits-he-overestimated-the-competence-of-the-greek-government-10401092.html

    Greece debt crisis: Economist Paul Krugman admits he ‘overestimated the competence of the Greek government’

    [Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winning economist, issued his verdict on the way the Greek government handled the eurozone crisis and found he may have “overestimated the competence of the Greek government.”

    In an interview with CNN, Krugman said that it didn’t even occur to him that Greece would make a stand against its European lenders without having made a plan for an exit from the euro if things went wrong.

    “Amazingly, they thought they could simply demand better terms without having any backup plan. So certainly this is a shock,”]

    ….specially for guytaur to mull over

  20. I think Shorten and other Labor spokespeople have lifted their level of aggression a bit since the Tony Abbott Royal Commission hearings. It could be wishful thinking, but this could be as bad as it gets for Shorten. A strong performance at the National Conference and more aggressive/forthright news conferences could well see a more positive view of Shorten.

    Shorten will never have a substantially good approval rating because he is not charismatic and because Abbott and co will never stop throwing whatever dirt, mud and slime they can find because that’s in their DNA. But it is hard to see what else could be used against him. Even an adverse finding by the TARC can do no more damage because people who are willing to accept the validity of the Commission have already made their negative judgement.

    On the other hand, how many more gaffes and missteps await Abbott. Even now the old Abbott trick of using totally imprecise language that people think they understand but which defies definition has backfired. Everyone, including on his side, is asking what on earth ‘probation’ means in regard to Bronnhilde. It’s an old trick that has had one outing too many.

    Roll on Essential. Will they roll Abbott if it goes to 53-47?

  21. Murdoch of course puts it all in perspective

    [Shorten support sinks deeper
    Shorten support sinks deeper
    PHILLIP HUDSON
    Bill Shorten’s support has hit a record low despite backing for the ALP rising to a four-month high. | NEWSPOLL]

  22. Millenial #60

    Think you have rose coloured glasses on. Mod Lib takes eevry opportunity to slag Labor and either defend Conservos or at minimum ignore their faults.

    Regular as clockwork. You can set your watch on it.

  24. The recent UK Election shows that being in front in the polls for a long period is no guarantee of electoral success. Too much hubris around PB at the moment about the ALPs prospects. Still a long way to go and a whole new dynamic if Abbott goes.

  25. [Bill Shorten’s support has hit a record low despite backing for the ALP rising to a four-month high.]

    LOL YEAH Because our electoral system relies SO heavily on the personal approval rating of oppo leaders.

    For example, remember when the current PM when was OL.

    Oh wait…

  27. [74
    Rossmore

    The recent UK Election shows that being in front in the polls for a long period is no guarantee of electoral success. Too much hubris around PB at the moment about the ALPs prospects. Still a long way to go and a whole new dynamic if Abbott goes.]

    I’ve been thinking the same thing…but then again, UK Labour led by Milliband basically had no policies…and we do not have a Scottish breakaway movement here….and, whatever his faults, Cameron is not as loony as Abbott…

  28. [QandA was excellent value tonight. It really showed the value of not having LNP sitting members on the panel.]

    It would have been better having anyone but that loudmouth overbearing Alan Jones. At least he was reined in occasionally by Tony Jones, unlike previous appearances. It’s a good thing we didn’t have Hunt. I don’t think I could have coped with two loudmouths making up figures on the run to support their positions.

    By the way, Jones had all these figures about Burke’s charter travel. I wonder if that was when he was Minister for Immigration towards the end of the Labor Government and had to do all those flights to Manus and Nauru. If it was, it was a very neat but fundamentally dishonest way of equating Burke’s ministerial work and Bronnhilde’s chopper jaunts at public expense to raise money for the Victorian Liberal party.

  30. TPOF

    Tony Burke tweeted the travel was when he was minister for Agriculture and Environment and had to go far and wide as part of the job. All legitimate travel.

  32. 77

    Having compulsory voting and compulsory preferential voting makes UK like situations much harder to happen because the polls do not have turnout as a massive variable to predict and there is no vote splitting costing parties seats.

  34. I hear your note of caution, but find it unconvincing beside 18 months of solid poll data.

    Im pretty satisfied: an Abbott-led LNP will lose the next election.

    If they change leaders, well, certainly: then things get more interesting.

  36. Those Newspoll Tables suggest all the ALPs primary vote gains in the last six months from mid 30s to high 30s have common from Others – with the LNP primary vote staying at 40 in the same period. Hmmm, what to make of that?

  39. [His ranting about the ABC and destructive energy policies must be registering…]

    I know- who’s advising this klutz? Loads of Tory voters love the ABC. Any amateur pol watcher knows this.

    But the ideological commandos of the modern LNP find this hard to compute – yet its a fact, and wily old goats like Howard never forgot it.

  40. [The recent UK Election shows that being in front in the polls for a long period is no guarantee of electoral success. Too much hubris around PB at the moment about the ALPs prospects. Still a long way to go and a whole new dynamic if Abbott goes.]

    Predictions are very hard to make – especially about the future.

    Nevertheless, the two are not directly comparable. Much of my confidence is based on Abbott’s fundamental incompetence. There is hardly a good word that can be found for him and his leadership, even among his supporters. He has desperately been trying to manufacture a black swan, like 9/11 was for Howard, but the very nature of black swans is that they cannot be conjured up by politicians looking for a boost in their ratings. And certainly not by an over-the-top Mussolini clown like Abbott.

    Shorten will remain leader of the Opposition unless something untenable comes out. It is too difficult under the new rules to roll him, so nobody of any substance is even trying (only Liberal trolls like Porky Pynenuts, dutifully reported by the media as though he has inside knowledge of the ALP). Certainly, there is nothing in the TARC that is hanging stuff, and any formal attempt to make it such will unleash a huge amount of mutually assured destruction on both sides.

    Abbott’s leadership is far more shaky, if for no other reason that he is only one misstep away from crashing. Indeed, the only things keeping him in his job are the fear of any change being presented as Labor Government dysfunction all over again and the fact that there is no challenger who both stands out and has any chance of uniting the party. Indeed, if Bishop’s position becomes untenable but Abbott continues to protect her, that may provide the spark for a new spill in the party room and it will be on for young and old.

    And if a new leader comes in, then a new reassessment will need to be done of electoral prospects. But if the new leader rushes to an early election they will need to justify it with something more than seeking a fresh mandate. And if they don’t, you can be absolutely certain they will be white-anted, whoever wins, either out of revenge or because of inherent opposition to the new/old policy positions or personal ambition or a combination of all those factors.

  41. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 30m30 minutes ago
    With Shorten less popular than Abbott & following a strong Coalition last week in parliament plus the TURC, Coalition still trails 47-53 TPP]

    Do they have the balls to replace Abbott?

  42. psyclaw@43

    Mark Butler slices Alan Jones up into little pieces. Chews him up and spits him out.

    Didn’t think Mark could so calmly and articulately slay a dragon so very well.

    I was disappointed that Mark went quiet when Jones raised a ‘carbon tax’.

    Every time this is raised, it is an invitation for Labor to start talking about Tony Abbot’s Great BIG ‘carbon tax’ that is taken from the pockets of ordinary tax payers and handed out to polluters. Ram it home big time. 👿

  43. psyclaw #72
    I don’t have rose-coloured glasses on, psyclaw.

    But to make a general point about discourse in politics; as much as I don’t like conservative attitudes and the people who express someone; it wouldn’t be right to unfairly attack them for something they didn’t say or do. All it does is legitimizes the myth that all lefties are all knobs that only use the information that fits into their worldview and calls everyone who doesn’t share it a troll.

    If you want to take down a conservative, the best way to do it is to point out the unequal and unfair nature of their policies. It is a stick that they just can’t stop beating themselves with.

  46. [74
    Rossmore

    The recent UK Election shows that being in front in the polls for a long period is no guarantee of electoral success. Too much hubris around PB at the moment about the ALPs prospects. Still a long way to go and a whole new dynamic if Abbott goes.
    ]

    Seriously? You think PB reflecting on the UK and humbly contemplating inevitable defeat would be better?

    Whatever minute difference PB makes isn’t going to be helped by being misserable in the face of 53-47 TPP (which they don’thave in the UK) polls. You can have the empty half, I prefer the full half.

  47. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 30m30 minutes ago
    With Shorten less popular than Abbott & following a strong Coalition last week in parliament plus the TURC, Coalition still trails 47-53 TPP]

    No shit. Is it possible the real story isnt about the leaders?

  48. 91

    I think that the Coalition faces big challenges in replacing Abbott.

    Firstly, there is no certain replacement candidate but instead a 3-way race. No major leadership candidate wants to expend political capital on a challenge where someone else replaces Abbott.

    Secondly, replacing a first term PM would rake up some old wounds in the electorate from the previous government.

    Thirdly, Abbott may decide that the ship goes down with the captain and call an election.

  49. Some thoughts.

    Jones is an unfit person to be allowed to appear on national television.

    Getting back to lefty e’s “[Liberals] have maybe 3 months to get a better leader”.

    Some thoughts on that.

    2 elements to that -when and who?

    The election is due Sept next year roughly.
    A new leader would need a couple of months before the start of the campaign to establish some cred and a positive trend during the ‘traditional’ honeymoon period.
    after a leadershit change.

    Any longer lead in to the election and the cracks in the edifice will start to re-appear, after all whoever it is will be the leader of the rabble that is the government we have now with the same policies we have now which is what is the real cause of the COALition’s problem.

    And there is Buckley’s and none of any new face who could represent this rabble of changing policies apart from putting some cosmetic on the porcine – for a brief time.

    So the ideal time would be, let’s see, around April/May next year maybe?

    Can the Libs wait until then?

    And then there is the ‘who’ bit.
    Not Turnbull.
    Will not have the numbers.
    Who else will want to lead them to failure – to be the caretaker and get rolled straight after they lose the election?
    Who will take one for the party?
    Pyne? Hockey? Bishop the younger?
    Nup – none are foreman [oops ‘foreperson’] material.
    Morrisson would not have the support now, wouldn’t want the suicide role, would rather bide his time for the future and anyway would crash and burn when under pressure.

    They don’t have an alternative to Abbott.

    The only hope left seems to be a concocted ‘national security’ event.

  50. Re my comment
    [
    Not a bad Newspoll, if I remember correctly Galaxy has a slight bias to Labor.

    That’s yet to be determined isn’t it?
    ]
    I was referring to the regular Galaxy in News tabloids.

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