James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). However, Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have slumped again, with approval down one to 27% and disapproval up five to 59%, while Tony Abbott’s are unchanged at 33% and 60%. Abbott has also opened up a 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, after a tied 39-39 result last time.
This is the second Newspoll for The Australian by Galaxy Research, using a combination of automated phone and online polling. It was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with a sample of 1638. Full tables from The Australian here.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely no change on voting intention in Essential Research this week, which has Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. The poll also finds 48% expect the current parliament will run its full term, compared with 25% who expect an early election. Further questions find a strong view in favour of renewable energy over coal, and a belief that the government is excessively favouring the latter. Fifty per cent of respondents were of the view that the government should prioritise renewables over coal versus on 6% for the other way around, with 28% opting that both should be treated equally. When asked an equivalent question about the actual position of the government, the respective results were 12%, 49% and 13%. Respondents also came down heavily in favour of gun control, with only 6% deeming current laws too strong and 45% rating them not strong enough, with 40% opting for “about right”.
Chopper bounce?
A reminder for those pushing Shorten to resign, Abbott should too:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-forced-to-repay-travel-expenses-20130707-2pk9b.html
slip sliding away?
TURC fizzer?
Solid TPP.
But that Shorten approval… ouch
GC
[But that Shorten approval… ouch]
That Abbott disapproval….HOWLLLL!
I figure TURC was -4 for ALP
ChopperGate was +6 for ALP
Net +2
ChopperGate still going, and may approach the Sir Prince Phillip for polling debacle.
I get a TPP of 53.3-46.7 to Labor on primaries.
And a very early judgement of the new Newspoll is that it is slightly biased towards Labor.
It looks like a pox on both your houses with regards to the leaders.
As soon as one of these leaders goes, I think there will be a massive bounce for the newcomer.
TURC hurt Shorten but not Labor.
Abbott is already badly maimed and with Bishop being joined in scandal with Brandis the prognosis for Labor is positive.
Can we give the’Probationary Speaker’ a Knighthood as well?
[10
Happiness]
There’s not likely to be any leadership changes.
Need a few more post chopper polls to know Millennial.
I wonder how long it will take for BB to throw out members of the ALP for calling her “Probationary Speaker Bishop”?
LOL :devil:
Question #14
I know Question, that’s why I’m calling it very, very early judgement.
Voters will soon forget TARC. There was nothing of substance…nothing at all. Most will have forgotten about it already. Voters have a low opinion of Madame Chopper – an opinion that will be reinforced by last week’s stories. Luckily for Labor, she won’t resign and Abbott won’t dump her either. She will remain as yet another example of how little the LNP really think of the electorate.
Solid numbers for the ALP – horrendous numbers for both leaders.
Another couple of polls like this and surely Abbott will be back in some very serious strife.
very nice numbers after shorten’s very worst week and abbott crowing about them having their best week in parliament all year. Bronnie is gone tomorrow as she will be scapegoated. labor should immediately move on to abbott’s dodgy claim history and propose reforms that caps pollies expenses (e.g. up to $50K/yr for an urban/peri-urban electorate and $100k/yr for a regional electorate, with strict guidelines and harsh penalties).
The Oz will focus on shorten’s satisfaction ratings but not acknowledge that many people such as me are dissatisfied that he is not taking abbott apart and adequately expressing our visceral hatred for abbott.
will turnbull and bishop continue/resume their leaking/ white-anting of abbott now?
Sadness @1:
[Chopper bounce?]
Nice try – it was conducted before and just as the scandal broke.
It’ll be interesting to see the 2PP from the next couple of polls, especially if Captain Chaos keeps defending the former Minister for Kerosene Baths.
Whoever asked earlier (mod lib?) -attending party conferences is a legitimate travel entitlement, ie it’s in the rules.
As for newspoll, the landslide of 2013 looks like being a “worse” landslide in 20016.
Nice.
politics (@pollwatcher9)
20/07/2015 10:21 pm
ALP UP to 53-47 #Newspoll. #choppergate cancels out #turc, Abbott’s blown his $80m #auslol
When Abbott is replaced by “anyone”, Labor are in big trouble.
AS the world population grows and land is eaten up for housing and economic activity (like mining) to pay for sustaining the increased population the demand for food goes up and the supply is put at some risk (might not go down as such with better techniques/transport).
In other words as mining becomes less attractive, food production becomes more attractive.
Australia is well poised to ride this “dining boom”.
I don’t believe a single word that Alan Jones says. He’s been caught out making up numbers all too often.
The ‘a little something for everyone’ Newspoll. 2PP and Primary up for Labor (thanks Bronnie), but Bishop didn’t do enough to stop TURC putting a hit on Shorten.
Certainly not bad enough for Abbott to reach for the rifle and take Bronwyn for a walk down the back paddock, but Labor will be very happy with the position going into National Conference. The underlying position for the government is as horrid as it has been since Dec 13.
Overall, a very poor return for $80m of public money spent sliming your political opponents, hampered by the tendency of conservatives to get caught at all the wrong moments with their snouts eyebrow-deep in the trough.
Oh, how Captain Chaos must be weeping bitter, bitter tears at the thought of all the Kill Bill headlines that now never will be…I’d reckon the ALP should vote Kerosene Bronny the thanks of their caucus for reminding the Australian public what hypocrites the Coalition are.
Butler having a go at Alan!
Rummel@12, at the time of Sir Prince gate,wasn’t BB one of those mentioned as on a short list for a knighthood.
Well I guess the list is shorter now.
Not a bad Newspoll, if I remember correctly Galaxy has a slight bias to Labor.
Butler just smacked down Alan Jones nicely there.
Good work, more of it please.
The amazing thing about the negative figures for Shorten and Abbott is that while Shorten has been set up to face a forensic examination that no leader of a major party has faced in at least 50 years – at great public expense – all of Abbott’s negative ratings are due to his own appalling incompetence. And that’s with an armchair ride from the media too.
[Not a bad Newspoll, if I remember correctly Galaxy has a slight bias to Labor.]
That’s yet to be determined isn’t it?
Happiness @24:
[AS the world population grows and land is eaten up for housing and economic activity (like mining) to pay for sustaining the increased population the demand for food goes up and the supply is put at some risk (might not go down as such with better techniques/transport).
In other words as mining becomes less attractive, food production becomes more attractive.
Australia is well poised to ride this “dining boom”.]
You’d think, except for three problems:
1) The ongoing low levels of support given to Australian farmers have driven many of them off the land, meaning that we’re losing large amounts of expertise and experience just as staples prices should be rising.
2) The Coalition’s laissez-faire approach to foreign ownership of Australian farmland (not to mention their eagerness to destroy it for MOAR COAL mines – see Shenhua Watermark) means that it’s increasingly not owned by Australian farmers anymore. Meaning that the profits (tax-free, because we can’t tax multinationals!) go straight overseas.
3) The China-Aus FTA being signed allows those same foreign (Chinese) owners to bring in a Chinese labour force to work the farms, cheaper than Australians can.
Of all the times to have the most incompetent Government in Australian history, now is perhaps one of the worst. Mind you, the thought of Cap’n Chaos being the PM in the wake of the GFC leaves one shuddering…
Mark Butler surprisingly good On QnA and sticking it up Alan Jones rather well..
[Not a bad Newspoll, if I remember correctly Galaxy has a slight bias to Labor.]
That’s yet to be determined isn’t it?
TPOF @31:
[The amazing thing about the negative figures for Shorten and Abbott is that while Shorten has been set up to face a forensic examination that no leader of a major party has faced in at least 50 years – at great public expense – all of Abbott’s negative ratings are due to his own appalling incompetence. And that’s with an armchair ride from the media too.]
Precisely. Can you imagine what the TPP figures would look like if, for example, the media were devoted to reporting Choppergate the way they reported on Slipper’s problems? Or if they were willing to spend the ~30s required to explain why budget surpluses aren’t a fetishist’s sex toy?
Was just wondering if Annastacia would ever front Q & A
Every media outlet, including Bolt, is going cover to cover on Choppergate.
How you could mount the case that the media isn’t covering it enough is beyond me….
[Newspoll
53-47 2PP
Coalition 40, Labor 39, Greens 12, Others 9]
KABOOM!!!!
No Shorten fallout, no Abbott comeback.
Dead government walking.
12
It would be a Damehood, Like Dame Quentin Brice and Dame Marie_Bashir.
So with the two political leaders we have today , if an election were held over the weekend we would now have a Labor government .
The same as if there had been 100 elections + in the previous 100 weeks
Why do they bother with polling leadership.
[
23
gloryconsequence
When Abbott is replaced by “anyone”, Labor are in big trouble.
]
Depends how much of Labor’s advantage is due to Abbott and how much due to Lib policy, and whether Libs will change that policy much under another leader.
Mark Butler slices Alan Jones up into little pieces. Chews him up and spits him out.
Didn’t think Mark could so calmly and articulately slay a dragon so very well.
[I don’t believe a single word that Alan Jones says. He’s been caught out making up numbers all too often.]
He spews out spreadsheets like he’s making it up.
Very happy to have been shown to be wrong about this Newspoll.
What I am seeing in the polls is that Shorten is suffering from dissatisfaction and disapproval not only from rusted on Libs as you would expect, but also from the left. The thing is though that a lot of people telling pollsters they are not satisfied with Shorten are absolutely not prepared to support the Coalition, and certainly not under Abbott. So, as things stands, Shorten’s approval numbers are not an issue for Labor. However, if the Liberals were to bite the bullet and change leaders, Labor may well find themselves having to consider doing this also, but that is a big if.
[No Shorten fallout]
Nothing fatal at least, with a bit of help from Her Speakerness.
That TURC was a total waste of money!
Thanks Bronny. I mean that most sincerely.
Bring on the leadershit!
Excellent! Back to a winning lead.
34% was too low I thought
so what does Abbott throw at Labor now that the kitchen sink has been used?
Question
He reads his notes….. subtly