Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The final result for Newspoll-as-we-know-it is much better for the Coalition than Ipsos or Morgan, and also records poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.

The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [ The Future Fund prepares for when the music stops

    …The nation’s sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund, says it is looking ahead to the eventual shakeout in financial markets when central banks begin to unwind unprecedented stimulus, and says it is investing accordingly.

    But it also cautions against taking too much risk off the table in case the low-rate environment persists for longer than investors currently assume.

    In a rare speech, Future Fund managing director David Neal told a business lunch in Melbourne he and his colleagues have tried to make the fund’s portfolio “as robust as possible” to the range of scenarios that might play out once the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, and other central banks eventually follow suit ]

  2. poroti @ 1125

    A dysfunctional government desperate to focus attention elsewhere. Like criticizing you neighbour’s paint job while you’re house burns to the ground.

  3. 1144
    William Bowe
    In Canada, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau promises sweeping reforms to the country’s British-style electoral system, perhaps to include preferential and compulsory voting.

    Canada would never have a Conservative Government again! In 2011, when the Canadian Conservatives won majority government, they did so with 39% of the vote. The four opposition parties, all of which are more or less left-wing, won over 60%.

  4. Anyhow, I was saying what an utter tosser our PM was today thanking the ABC in QT – barf.

    This man knows no shame.

    [The prime minister, Tony Abbott, has mounted a fresh attack on the national broadcaster, suggesting the ABC instinctively took “everyone’s side but Australia’s” and should show “some basic affection for the home team”.]

    Just one example, there must be 100″s.

  5. Briefly

    Many pages ago

    Hey I am not defending negative gearing. I just think it should be phased out slowly to avoid too much disruption

  6. What I recall from the media is that after Abbott got in, we had a whole bunch of political journalists writing that we don’t really know Tony Abbott.

  7. I’m thinking Bill should just brush aside all these allegations of what not, if he needs any pointers on obfuscating he need look no further than our PM.

  8. Guess everyone is glued to the footy.

    BTW the Matilda’s went through to the 1/4 finals today in the only real game of football. 1-1 draw against Sweden, no mean feat.

  9. Looks like the unravelling of Bill Shorten has begun. The privileged elite private school boy is finally exposed for ripping off workers, yet the blind of pollbludger still refuse to see.

  10. ESJ

    The only “unravelling” around here is your mind.

    And don’t bring up private school pollies screwing the workers cause your mod are stacked with them

  11. [1105

    Are you a communist?

    Rigging the tax system to deliver windfall capital gains to a small group of people and unaffordable housing for everyone else, at a huge economic and social cost, is not consistent with good economic management.]

    Nicholas, the system does create inequities. These are serious and are reason enough to want to reform the system.

    However, I think the biggest problems with negative gearing are to do with financial (and therefore economic) instability. Speculation in land (encouraged by negative gearing) means that more than 2/3 of bank assets are mortgage related. Correspondingly, households – especially those with nominally high gross savings – are massively committed to property and are widely under-invested in equities, cash deposits and income-producing businesses.

    In other words, the savings of wealthier households have been progressively allocated to speculation rather than to production. These households have leveraged their savings against property in the expectation that real estate prices will always rise. The financial system has propelled this demand. It has been subsidised by the tax system; funded by the excess liquidity in the EU financial system; and has been both “reticulated and fertilised” by the Commonwealth guarantee of foreign wholesale borrowings.

    One day – perhaps quite soon – interest rates will start to rise. When this happens, axiomatically land prices will begin to fall. And when that happens both lenders and borrowers will find their balance sheets suddenly look less healthy.

    The banks are already responding to this prospect and have begun raising new equity. Retail property borrowers are doing the exact opposite: they are increasing their gearing rather than consolidating their equity. This is a grave risk to stability in the economy.

    Because land prices are so unbelievably high (when compared to income) and so many households are so very heavily exposed to this very over-priced savings class, when land prices start to fall it’s likely the collapse – especially in Sydney, Perth and Melbourne – will be remembered for generations.

  12. [The privileged elite private school boy is finally exposed for ripping off workers…]

    He actually scored thousands of jobs, ensured the project came in early and under budget and generally set the model for future deals of its kind.

    Why is it that union bashers are never happy unless unions are calling strikes, nobbling construction projects, pursuing a “Them v. Us” agenda with companies and generally trying to muck up any project they work on?

    Shorten ensured uprecedented industrial harmony and a uniquely successful completion of the EastLink project, well in advance of almost any other projets in the history of Victoria.

    And ESJ is whingeing about this?

  13. Player One

    [Seriously? You can’t figure out which of these is the bad apple?]

    Relax, I’m just pullin Bw’s chain on the informal vote.

  14. On my Twitter feed, Murdoch’s SmearStralian and Greens are competing to pile on Bill Shorten.

    We know one is pathetic, having doubts about the other.

  15. Nothing is more worrying that some Greens supporters constantly talking down Labor. The Greens are not going to win government in their own right, surely progressive voters are ideologically closer to Labor then the current batch of hard right nutjobs in government

  16. There seems to be a huge amount of outrage on the right and among the wealthy classes at the thought that someone might have screwed the workers rather than them.

    Historically, it has been the Liberal Party and the business lobby groups who have reserved the right to absolutely bone their employees. And now the mere suggestion that someone else might have has them in paroxysms of hysteria.

  17. No-one seems to be able to answer why Bill Shorten, negotiating a deal that reaped the AWU $300,000, but reaped the construction company $100,000,000, secured thousands of jobs, plus brought about an almost unprecedented early completion to the EastLink project was not win-win all round.

    Isn’t this what unions should be doing? Co-operatively forging a new workplace where workers and bossess all benefit, to the ultimate advatage of the public?

    The writers of the articles in Fairfax so far appear to think that a union isn’t doing its proper job unless it’s calling strikes, running go-slows and sabotaging major construction works. Somehow, NOT doing this is written up as suspicious and slightly sinister.

    FFS, get a grip!

  18. What is really interesting about this government is the willingness to give the middle finger to the very star chamber witch hunt they set up themselves.

    The people who are not commentators are suddenly able to comment.

    And what does the main stream media do when the non-commentating government starts to comment? Do they ask the questions that they did not previously comment on? About how the Coalition Cabinet is a leaking sieve? No – right on cue they ask the questions they are told to ask.

    What about the Ashby affair?

    What about how Pauline Hanson was framed?

    What about Abbott’s daughter’s scholarship, apparently reserved for daughters of leading Liberal politicians?

    No incisive investigatory journalism there…..

  19. Victorian contruction workers work hard and get paid well. If the Liberals arn’t complaining about the paod well they are complaining about the working hard.

  20. Luv the lead pic in this article. Abbott making sure Robb signs his name with 2 d’s.


  21. [No-one seems to be able to answer why Bill Shorten, negotiating a deal that reaped the AWU $300,000, but reaped the construction company $100,000,000, secured thousands of jobs, plus brought about an almost unprecedented early completion to the EastLink project was not win-win all round.]

    This is how it works.

    The smear is out there for ages.

    If Shorten tries to defend himself and what he has done, it is permission for Abbott and everybody who hates Labor and wants to protect their privilege to pile in.

    If he doesn’t the smear is out there unchallenged – certainly not addressed by the subservient msm journalist lackeys.

    It’s the putrid stinking ugly country that Captain Chaos, Scum Morrison, the Troll and ESJ are getting aroused in contemplation of.

  22. “Bill Shorten – Australia’s alternative Prime Minister – is one of Australia’s best known faces but least defined characters. Fairfax reporters Royce Millar and Ben Schneiders have dug deep to investigate the Opposition Leader’s past and present, exploring his character, his politics, his allegiances, and the deals that have put him so close to power. The explosive results of that investigation will be revealed over the next four days.”

    Gee thanks Fairfax where were you to do the same for Abbott?

  23. TPOF

    [The smear is out there for ages]
    Winnie Churchill made a comment that illustrated the SOP of Abbot and crew.

    [“A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.” ]

  24. [There seems to be a huge amount of outrage on the right and among the wealthy classes at the thought that someone might have screwed the workers rather than them.]

    It’s a demarcation dispute at heart

  25. Hello all.

    Well, since some people talking about the 800th anniversary of the Magna Carta a few days ago, I thought I show this comedic video on the reign of King John.

    And to give you a good idea of what type of King that King John was; well, King John was to Kings what Tony Abbott is to Australian PMs.

  26. mikehilliard @ 1164

    Don’t forget about the Socceroos win over Kyrgyzstan in our opening World Cup Qualifier. I missed both matches cause I had to be up early and forced myself to go to bed after the Nintendo E3 digital presentation.

  27. It’s a bit like people who don’t know they have a disease like diabetes or liver disease, there’s apparently a lot of people especially in Melbourne who don’t know they have a diagnosis of AWU. It too can be a silent killer!

  28. [1150

    Having thought about the problem a little more, if you just increased inner city density and introduced strong tenants’ rights (perpetual lease, difficult to evict, regulated prices etc) you would subsequently force rental prices down while forcing property quality up…]

    I’m an advocate of tenants rights, but unfortunately if access and prices are regulated then private owners will tend to exit the market, so, unless the public sector expands, supply of rental property will fall.

    What really needs to happen in the housing market is that credit-supplier loan:valuation ratios need to be altered, so that buyers need more equity before they start buying, and loan terms need to be limited to, perhaps, 25 years only; negative gearing needs to be available only for new supply, which will bring new rental stock into the market; publicly-owned supply needs to be expanded and aimed at the least-well off; it should be possible for tenants of public housing to also buy-in, so they can acquire equity in their housing on a gradual basis; the availability of new land and in-fill of existing land needs to be made easier, cheaper and faster; there needs to be higher investment in common urban infrastructure to add density and diversity into the market; there needs to be financial innovation, so that savers (who now get terribly low rates of interest on their savings) can buy higher-yielding residential mortgage bonds, and this finance should be available to community-sector and public-sector “social” builders.

    We need to add to the supply while also taking the heat out of demand and skewing credit in favour of long-term owner-buyers. The result will be a cheaper and more stable market.

  29. If the conservatives feel the need to turn the heat on Shorten they must be worried.

    Opposition leaders, by and large, do not win government.

    Prime Ministers and their parties certainly lose government.

    Gough could not win in 1969 when he clearly was the best option.

    It was not until a completely weak and ineffective leader in Big Ears McMahon lost it of the LNP that Whitlam came into his own in 1972. Even then, the conservatives held onto the Senate as I remember.

    No sane viewer of the electoral process would think that Abbott would have had a chance to be PM had it not been for Labor immolating.

    Abbott was neither liked nor respected as a LOTO and he certainly is no more liked or respected now he is PM.

    Shorten will not win an election, rather Abbott will lose it…if he is still there.

  30. What really astounds me is that 47 -48% of the electorate seem to think Abbott is okay.

    More likely, they are holding back and making up their minds about Shorten.

    The LNP has only one more budget to stuff up before the next election – all other things being equal.

    By the way, where IS Hockey these days?

  31. There’s nothing wrong with Shorten having to account for his past deals. If he can’t stand up to Fairfax of all people, then he’s got bugger all chance of winning the election against the might of the News Corpservatives.

    So far it looks like much ado about nothing – shock, horror, company saves money and union secures thousands of jobs, it’s the end of a political career for sure – but let’s see what else gets turned up and, more importantly, how Shorten responds. Much as it grates to see the media muscling Labor when they couldn’t kiss enough Liberal arse previously, this sort of scrutiny should be welcomed and expected for someone who wants to lead the nation.

  32. For weeks the LNP gainsayers here have been harping on about Shorten – a dead give away.

    With a pile of failed policies, broken promises and blundering government, the LNP has fallen back on the known classics to save them – God, Queen and Country…ignore SSM as this is against religious belief, bring in knighthoods, smother yourself in the flag, shriek “Death Cult”, threaten to “shirt front” a leader whose nuclear arsenal could wipe us off the map and attack the unions.

    The path of the conservative supporter is so easy as apart from the above, you don’t really have to do anything.

    I personally don’t hate PMTA because I have not met him and don’t know him, but sure as hell, if we got into serious trouble, I would find it hard to take him seriously as he is not a leader’s bootlace.

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