Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The final result for Newspoll-as-we-know-it is much better for the Coalition than Ipsos or Morgan, and also records poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.

The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. Triple FMD . The ABC trumpeting the China – Australia reports as the mega goodness of the deal “a $2,000 flat screen television could now cost $100 less” .

  7. [Yes tricot the libs must peeing their pants in terror at the thought of Bill Shorten. Roflmao]

    Hilariously stupid. I have pot plants smarter than that, they did have a panic and would have replaced Abbott early in the year but for lack of a contender. Abbott didn’t win by that much WITHOUT an opponent.

    Now we know most of the current libs and their supporters are dumber than pot plants but if they were a bit smarter and realised what the polling indicated, with almost entirely upside for Labor, they would be very concerned.

  9. I feel I can’t continue the labor/ greens party hypocrisy series. I feel it would be cruel after today’s news. please forgive me all.

  10. My goodness wwp, you and imacca are like the Mississippi and Arkansas of pollbludger – competing constantly for number 49 and 50 on the league table.

  11. At this point in time – and you don’t need a PhD to work this out, there is not much more Labor should do.

    After an election in which the conservatives crowed about a life of 2 and 3 term governments ahead, Abbott has already had one near-death experience and he is no certainty to be there for the next election as leader.

    It did not take long for Labor to establish an election winning lead which they have kept for the most part during the life of this government.

    When the impact of just one poll after the election got close to 50:50 after the most recent budget, the conservative press went into raptures about the LNP being “in the game” and “competitive” whereas it has been one bad thing after another.

    It did not take long, as one paper put it, for voters to “drift” away from Tony Abbott. So, back came the 53:47 polls to remind the LNP just how far down the tube they likely are.

    After two easy-beat changes to the CT and MRRT it all got a bit too hard for the LNP and now, with turning the boats around and the terrorism scare, that is about all that is left for the government to go on about.

    We have seen 2 conservative State governments thrown out on the ear after one just one term – one with a massive majority and a mini-bus for an opposition and the other inept, and a very tired Labor government get in in SA. In in NSW where Labor has a lot to answer to, half came back.

    Meanwhile, the economy is tanking. The RBA is running out of ideas and soon there will be no interest rates left to cut. The deficit is worse than ever, the share market has lost heaps, WA is near-enough in technical recession and nobody believes the unemployment rate will not go up again.

    What is there for Labor to do in the next little while for the government is doing fine unravelling on its own.

    What would help Labor is a nice juicy scandal on the conservative side of politics to tickle the fancy of the electorate.

  13. IF Shorten is as bad as the Lib trolls keep ranting…it says more about how useless the Libs and Abbott are when they haven’t been ahead in the polls since….when was it? November…2013

  14. [ And ESJ is whingeing about this? ]

    Of course it is. Its a moron.

    And remember. Its Liberal, It Lies.

    And if not lying, sits and spins obsessively.

  15. Both political parties do hypocrisy.

    It’s just that the conservatives actually do it better.

    When they coin comments about themselves about being “compassionate conservatives” you know they are into self-delusion and hypocrisy of high order.

  17. Abbott: “The best friend Medicare ever had”

    At one point I think BW kept a score of broken LNP promises just after the election.

    I think he gave it away as the list got so long in such a short period of time, it became just too hard to keep track of the “recallibrations” as the conservative press described the long list of back flips, lies and obfuscations which came from Abbott and his (mostly) merry men.

    Anyway, enough of all this stuff.

  21. meher baba….if you’re around and haven’t lost interest, rather than offering tax concessions to buyers of property, if you really want to provide tax concessions, there is a much smarter thing to do…

    A concession could be provided to savers who buy residential mortgage bonds. These bonds already exist. They could be structured to pay interest linked to the variable home loan rate and the interest paid could be tax-free in the hands of mum-and-dad savers, up to a certain limit, maybe $5000 per person per tax year. This would improve the income to saving and increase the supply of funds available for housing.

    Funds from this source could be accessed by any approved lender to finance first home buyers or other owner-occupiers up to a limit – maybe 120% of the median property value in any market – and buyers of new build-to-let dwellings, subject to some prudent caveats on loan:value and price/yield ratios, length of term and buyer equity.

    This would be a far smarter way to use the tax system to mobilise investments in housing that would be equitable between different buyers.

  24. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, June 17, 2015 at 9:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Triple FMD . The ABC trumpeting the China – Australia reports as the mega goodness of the deal “a $2,000 flat screen television could now cost $100 less” .]

    Or, put another way, tradies could get instant $20,000 write-off for ten and a half flat screens instead of ten.

    Of course, it would depend on Gerry Harvey not increasing his retail margin – he was whingeing about margins falling as the price of electronics has come down.

  25. For all hype about foreign ownership the media and right wing certainly don’t mention the massive increases in property sale values before the purchase is reviewed by the FRIB

  30. @EDJ/1192

    Your comment about diseases and politicians should make you banned from this forum, it disgusts me when people compare diseases, especially when a political party refuses to fund the health sector (but spend on stopping but not stopping boats and other shit).

  32. I wonder if some of Bill Shorten’s mates got a little bit of a nudge to start bidding in the Midwinter Ball auction and get his meal ticket up over Abbott 😀

    From nil bids to the #2 spot on the ticket in an afternoon is pretty impressive!

  36. Thanks for the suggestion outside left but I’ll pass on the offer 🙂

    Well done NSW they were the better team tonight. Bring on Lang Park.

  37. [1233
    sceptic]

    Hi sceptic, Pimco suggests households are increasing their debt because its cost has been falling and asset prices have been rising…

    From this we infer several probable outcomes in Australia:

    Households’ decision to incur debt is dominated by the cost of debt (the mortgage rate) and recent asset price appreciation..

    However, they make the point that this behaviour contains risks…

    Households’ decision to incur debt…may not be sustainable or linked to the productivity of the asset.

    Of concern, households are exhibiting irrational exuberance because they are placing little weight on broader fundamentals like unemployment that may be more representative of future incomes or asset price returns, increasing the likelihood of asset price bubbles.

    Australian households appear to respond rather quickly, needing only two quarters of favourable changes in asset prices and mortgage rates to increase leverage.

    Australian households will react faster and more vigorously to a shock in asset prices or mortgage rates. This could result in a feedback loop where falling asset values induce further deleveraging.

    Based on our model for household leverage alone, if an exogenous shock sparked a deleveraging cycle in Australia, it would be expected to be quite severe

    We have been experiencing declines in real per capita disposable incomes because of the declines in the terms of trade (even though we are producing more, we’re receiving less for our products, so incomes are falling).

    Eventually, if incomes decline by enough, then households will have to slow their consumption and increase their savings. But this hasn’t happened yet. Instead, savings rates have been slowly falling and consumption has been slowly rising even though incomes have not.

    If there is a shock – say a further heavy knock to the terms of trade, or a quick rise in interest rates – then households may react by both cutting their borrowings and/or increasing their savings. This would have the potential to cause a change in momentum in the property markets (their would be higher pressure to sell than buy) and higher savings rates would drive down final demand, provoking a decline in employment…and so on.

    This is the risk.

    As well, we should note that the Government are actually taking quite a bit more tax from mid-range incomes. Income tax is rising faster than nominal incomes, even as real disposable incomes are already falling. This will also hurt household finances and final demand.

  38. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/17/us-europe-migrants-pope-idUSKBN0OX0XN20150617

    Pope criticizes nations that close doors to migrants

    [Pope Francis on Wednesday called for respect for migrants and suggested that “people and institutions” who close doors to them should seek forgiveness from God.

    The pope’s appeal, made at the end of his weekly general audience, came amid growing debate in Europe on how to deal with an immigrant crisis that has included clashes at the French-Italian borer between police and migrants.

    “I invite you all to ask forgiveness for the persons and the institutions who close the door to these people who are seeking a family, who are seeking to be protected,” he said in unscripted remarks delivered in a somber voice.

    France and Austria have stepped up border controls on migrants coming from Italy, turning back hundreds and leaving growing numbers camped out in train stations in Rome and Milan.

    In a sign of persisting discord over how to deal with the migrant crisis, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi threatened retaliation if other EU countries did not agree to take their fair share of refugees that land on Italy’s shores.

    Matteo Salvini, leader of the right-wing Northern League which has won votes from people fearing migrants bringing diseases and leeching resources from a long-stagnant economy, hit back at the pontiff.

    “Out of curiosity, how many immigrants are there in the Vatican State?” northern Italian broadcaster Radio Padania Libera quoted Salvini as asking.

    The pope said “these brothers and sisters of ours are seeking refuge far from their lands, they are seeking a home where they can live without fear.”

    He asked for prayers that their “human dignity always be respected” and urged the international community to “work together and efficiently to prevent the causes of forced migration”.

    France, Italy and Germany agreed on Tuesday to join forces to identify migrants arriving by sea and to swiftly relocate them across the European Union or send them back to their home countries if their claims for asylum in Europe are rejected.

    As they deliberated, police began removing mainly African migrants from makeshift seaside camps on the Italian-French border. Around 300 had collected on the Italian side in hopes of proceeding into France and onwards to northern Europe where relatives live and job chances might be better.]

  39. [BRUSSELS – Greece says it will default on a debt repayment due to the IMF unless it receives new funds.]

    …from reuters…

  40. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-17/world-hasn-t-had-so-many-refugees-since-1945-report-says

    [ The world hasn’t had so many refugees or internally displaced people since 1945, and numbers are expected to increase, according to an Australian research center.

    About 1 percent of the global population, or about 73 million people, have been forced to leave their homes amid a spike in armed conflict over the past four years, the Institute for Economics and Peace, which compiles the Global Peace Index, said in a report published on Wednesday.

    “One in every 130 people on the planet is currently a refugee or displaced and most of that comes out of conflicts in the Middle East,” institute director Steve Killelea said by phone. The numbers in Syria, where as many as 13 million of its 22 million people are displaced, are “staggering,” he said.

    The number of people killed in conflict rose to 180,000 in 2014 from 49,000 in 2010; of that number, deaths from terrorism increased by 9 percent to an estimated 20,000, according to the report. The impact of this violence on the global economy, including the cost of waging war, homicides, internal security services, and violent and sexual crimes, reached $14.3 trillion in the past year, it said.

    “To put into perspective, it’s 13.4 percent of global gross domestic product, equivalent to the combined economies of Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and the U.K.,” Killelea said. “It’s also more than six times the total value of Greece’s bailout and loans from the IMF, ECB and other euro zone countries combined.]

  42. I think shorten and abbott know that if one of them goes as leader the other will go shortly afterwards because the bump the new leader woulld get for simply not being either of them. If shorten were dumped abbott would be straight to the polls to save himself. if abbott goes, I suspect labor would change too and then the libs would again rush to the polls before the new labor leader could get established. one thing is for sure – it will not be a very edifying election campaign.

    the allegations against shorten are very bad in my book – basically selling out workers in order to get backhanders to fund a form of branch stacking. I think he should stand down over this. his next polling will be dire and I can’t see him recovering. it is a pity as I think he might have made a good PM if he’d relaxed a bit

  43. Abbott thanking the ABC in question time & it’s about time he did, he owes them. I’m sure they’ll be eager to help out a bit more.
    Fairfax campaign from staff with a known anti ALP track record on the way.
    Lots of opportunities for journalists to bootstrap & interview each other.
    Abbott so bad they’ve finally decided Shorten will have to be brought down.
    Here we go again?

  44. [ the allegations against shorten are very bad in my book ]

    So get another book with less Liberal Spin in it.

    As far as i can see the “allegations” against Shorten are that he settled agreements on behalf of his members Whatever. The fact is that everyone who has ever been involved in negotiating an agreement like this knows that you have wins and losses. Your accountable to the members, particularly when you have to explain those prior to their vote on the agreement.

    Its up to the members to vote on it and decide if there are die in a ditch issues or if they want to settle.

    [ I think he should stand down over this. ]

    If you want another Abbott Govt then thats a fair enough desire i suppose.

    Predictable how the press is treating it.

    Take this in the OZ.

    Headline is:

    “Firm paid Bill Shorten’s AWU for employee to ‘stop trouble’”

    Make sit sound all ominous and union thuggish huh?

    Then read the story though? Nothing to it. Union and Company came to an arrangement that worked for them over an employee and his role.

    The disconnect between the headline that is all most people read and the actual story is a trick they used a lot on Gillard. It does suck in the gullible.

  45. Insomnia got me tonight/this morning.

    So

    [The figures are detailed in fine-print in documents lodged with the Australian Electoral Commission as well as documents before the Abbott government’s royal commission into union corruption.

    Fairfax Media understands that some of these amounts include spending on training and payroll deductions that the union will defend if quizzed by the royal commission.

    Huntsman denied any improper payments had been made and said from 2004 it paid the AWU for an on-site “workplace change facilitator”, whose role was to balance the “needs of the unionised workforce and the company”.]

    I think this is just smear. As you can see if its lodged with the electoral commission its not exactly hiding corrupt payments.

    Yes there is some that are unexplained however that does not mean corrupt or against the interests of the union members.

    However this may be enough to end Mr Shorten’s leadership. The impression that is left with voters may see to that. Its kind of like the payments to people smugglers to stop boats leaving Indonesia vs those made to turn boats around. The truth can be hidden behind just leaving implication hanging.

  48. Will Fox News actually become fair and balanced? James Murdoch has been reported as a supporter of the Democrats

    [In what is being characterized as a demotion — or at least a firm-handed rebuke — a 21st Century Fox spokesperson said Tuesday that Fox News President Roger Ailes will report to James and Lachlan Murdoch after their 84-year-old father, Rupert Murdoch, steps down as CEO on July 1.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/17/fox-news-roger-ailes_n_7604696.html

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