Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The final result for Newspoll-as-we-know-it is much better for the Coalition than Ipsos or Morgan, and also records poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.

The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  5. The Labor Party have to now seriously consider rolling Bill Shorten.

    He’s had his 5 minutes of fame but now he has to go.

    Possibly give Tanya a go and see how she performs.

  10. No doubt the trolls and friends who studiously ignored IPSOS and Morgan this time will get bed-wettingly excited by a poll moving in the other direction within the margin of error.

    A lot of noise, but underlying it all is an entrenched continuation of support for the Opposition over the Government. Which will be clarified when an election is called and the voters actually focus en masse on the alternative options for government.

  20. (From previous thread)

    Re Newspoll: Labor 34 (barely improved from 2013) doesn’t look right – too low. On the other hand Greens 14 looks too high.

    Still, all recent polls are within MOE of 52:48 2PP, some higher, so lower, Morgan and last Month’s Ispos seem to be at upper and lower limits.

    So basically no change.

  22. [Brett Walker has been gold. Absolute gold]

    And then he gives Dolores Umbridge a lesson in what the role of Parliament is. Cutting like a surgeon’s scalpel.

  23. I’m not sorry to see Newspoll go. It’s been all over the place this year.

    Galaxy can only be an improvement IMO and it comes highly recommended by William.

  27. Let’s pretend Australia did pay the crew of the boats.

    This may have to do with the much cheaper boats being used, no more than need to buy expensive $500,000 orange unsinkable boats now we can use the cheap Vietnamese ones with a cash incentive for the crews to sail them back and save the Aussie taxpayer $400K per boatload.

  28. [Re Newspoll: Labor 34 (barely improved from 2013) doesn’t look right – too low. On the other hand Greens 14 looks too high.]

    All of the polls have the Greens at about 14%. It’s the 14% others that looks too high to me.

  34. The problem with Triggs is she says she is a statutory body… but in front of the senate estimates she said she didn’t want to do the Children in detention report during the election because it would be “political”

    She’s a Class-A moron

  37. mikeh:

    We could reminisce with memories of insightful Newspoll commentary of old. Who will ever forget ‘we own the poll therefore we understand the poll’?

  38. “Let’s pretend Australia did pay the crew of the boats.

    This may have to do with the much cheaper boats being used, no more than need to buy expensive $500,000 orange unsinkable boats now we can use the cheap Vietnamese ones with a cash incentive for the crews to sail them back and save the Aussie taxpayer $400K per boatload.”

    So, you’re happy for Abbott to help fund ISIS ?

    “Browyn Bishop smackdown!”

    Yep, she sure was made to look like a fool

  39. Q@A
    Brett Walker had a say on the need for the executive to explain the truth and B Bishop replied……

    B Bishop. The exception to that, Bret, as has been shown by many a PM, not just the current PM, when it is a matter of national security, you don’t speak about it publicly.

    Brett Walker. I don’t believe for a moment that it would ever be ruled responsibly that national security is involved in the proposition of potentially unlawful conduct in the defence of our borders.

    Well said Mr Walker. National security is a crook idea used to cover up the truth.

  40. Bronwyn Bishop just provided advice on when someone should resign from office for being political. No really she did. #qanda #auspol

  44. In May 2013 Gillard was worse than Abbott is now and Abbott then a little better than Shorten now but they were both terrible.

  45. @MariamVeiszadeh: I’d like to be “randomly selected” to sit in Parliament. Would certainly beat being “randomly selected” at airports! #qanda

  46. [confessions
    …Bye bye Newspoll. Twas nice knowing you.]

    You could just as well read this as:

    “….Bye bye Shorten. Twas nice knowing you”

    Dump Shorten and Abbott will look even worse and they will probably dump him too! Do it soon enough and it will be too early for Morrison….they might have to go with Turnbull or Bishop……leave it too late and you might go from an Abbott to a Morrison government.

    You know if makes sense ALP caucus……..do it for the country!
    :devil:

  49. TBA

    Stop using Liberal dipstick mentality
    You keep sounding like a short arsed private school barrister,we already have one too many in Brandis

  50. [TrueBlueAussie
    ….The problem with Triggs is she says she is a statutory body… but in front of the senate estimates she said she didn’t want to do the Children in detention report during the election because it would be “political”

    She’s a Class-A moron]

    There is no problem with Triggs, she is a Class A Australian hero.

    The HRC is a statutory body and it is doing its duty. It is not there to defend the government, it is there to defend human rights. That is EXACTLY what she is doing and it is EXACTLY why the government is unhappy. She wants the actual outcome, not a political outcome (in other words she wants children out of detention, not for one or other side to win the election).

    Why this is so hard to get amazes me.

    Those questioning the timing of the report should state clearly whether or not they question a single fact in the report.

    Do you?

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