Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The final result for Newspoll-as-we-know-it is much better for the Coalition than Ipsos or Morgan, and also records poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.

The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 26
  1. confessions@37

    How funny.

    After all these years I don’t think I’ll miss Newspoll, goes back to all my comments about that poll getting a pedestal here over others…if you know what I mean. 😉

  2. Ok so say the government is paying boats to turn back with taxpayers money doesn’t that make us all accomplices? If I rat Tony out now can I get a shorter term?

  3. Newspoll is the most accurate poll.

    But one thing is clear no matter which poll you believe… Bill Shorten is Toxic

  4. Is it just me, or was there something hugely obscene about the Speaker of the House Of Representatives spruiking the government line and criticising the Opposition so openly and shamelessly?

  5. B Bishop has said this twice tonight to Gillian Triggs. If you say anything against us you are warned.
    From transcript

    As I said before, you have to make the decision are you a statutory officer, carrying out an obligation with the protection of that office or do you wish to be a political participant? If you do wish to be a political participant, then you have to be no longer a statutory officer and perhaps stand for office.

    That last sentence is a threat carried out by the Speaker of the House, while she defends the Magna Carta and quotes Churchill on the value of democracy.

  6. [Is it just me, or was there something hugely obscene about the Speaker of the House Of Representatives spruiking the government line and criticising the Opposition so openly and shamelessly?]

    But not unexpected given the individual in question. Today’s Liberal party have zero respect for our institutions.

  7. TBA

    Here’s one you will love….. At least it shows there are a few decent cabinet members ( & they leak)

    A secret federal government plan to wedge Bill Shorten, portraying him as indecisive on terrorism, has been undermined after an internal briefing paper instructing ministers on how to argue the point politically was leaked to the media.

    The embarrassing breakdown of the government’s own security suggests ongoing internal divisions and comes amid growing doubts over the future of its bill to hand the immigration minister the power to strip citizenship from dual nationals suspected of supporting terrorism.

  8. Could it be that the disgruntled NewsPoll employees, pink slips in hand, are ‘pissing in the punch’?

    Leaving their bad employer with a bad polling reputation.

  9. Somehow I think if Newspoll staff were going to sabotage their last result, they’d do something a bit more noticeable than 1% off the aggregate.

  10. BB

    Yes, from the getgo Bishop referred to the government as “we”.

    IMHO she clearly demonstrated her inability to occupy and perform an independent office?

    She should have appropriately said “I am the Speaker and can’t speak for the government”

    Bishop is unconscionable to the core. She merely demonstrated it again today.

    But hey, when did any of these conservo bastards act apprriately.

  11. Powerful Fairfax editorial tonight

    [The Herald harbours serious concerns about the Abbott government’s respect for the rule of law and for the intelligence of Australians.

    The Coalition’s willingness to place politics before policy is reflected yet again in a leaked confidential Question Time brief for cabinet ministers on stripping citizenship from dual nationals suspected of terrorism.

    The brief advises ministers to argue that a minister and not the courts should decide who loses citizenship because “a law requiring a terrorist conviction would be toothless”.

    The rationale provided in the brief leaked to The West Australian newspaper is that “in many cases law enforcement agencies will know an Australian has been fighting with terrorist groups but will be unable to present sufficient eligible evidence to secure a conviction”.]

  12. Doesn’t really seem to have bought Lib fans much solace that newspoll. I guess anyone can see things are going pear shaped.

  13. Yeah, the government has stalled its minor recovery with two massive stuff ups: looking sneaky and on the back foot over SSM, and then Hockey’s ‘rich tosser and proud’ routine over housing prices.

    Unfit to govern modern Australia.

  14. Bushfire Bill

    Is it just me, or was there something hugely obscene about the Speaker of the House Of Representatives spruiking the government line and criticising the Opposition so openly and shamelessly?

    No, it’s not just you.

  15. psyclaw @ 70

    [Yes, from the getgo Bishop referred to the government as “we”.]

    And she treated Gillian Triggs as though she was a Labor representative, even though the number of times Triggs strongly criticised Labor in government was well documented.

    The mentality of this vicious Clown Circus that treats everyone who does not parrot the Government line as an enemy is utterly sickening. So scary for Australia that in an established democracy like ours we have a Prime Minister who acts like Robert Mugabe, leading a party that behaves like Zanu PF.

  16. trand@71

    So assuming essential comes in at 52 48 tomorrow. Where does that leave the aggregates?

    If Essential comes in with a “normal” 52 considering the primaries then mine will be 52.5 (+0.7 from last week). If it comes in with a 52 for which the primaries would normally have given 51.6 or less then my aggregate will be 52.4 (+0.6). Assuming no other polls in the meantime.

  17. [ “in many cases law enforcement agencies will know an Australian has been fighting with terrorist groups but will be unable to present sufficient eligible evidence to secure a conviction”.]

    That is the mentality of every lynch mob in history.

  18. Bronwyn Bishop didn’t win many friends tonight. Looking down her nose at people seems to be a regular state of mind.

  19. I must say, sometimes Shorto overcomes his deficiencies.

    I like him on the front foot – stating the obvious about modern Australia, broadly dismissive of the government and focused on the policy problems rather than the ape-led frontbench opposite.

    he doesn’t want to get too insider and gotcha in his rhetoric. And he should pay up the zingers – start doing it deliberately so the media look forward to it. Have a bit of a grin so it looks like he might be doing it deliberately.

    And yes, on the front foot about SSM was good stuff. Now climate. Go for 10% – go higher than the LNP. Stop getting focussed on who can actually deliver 5%, because 5% is so bullshit that it hardly matters whose policy can actually achieve it.

    Shift the discourse. I think it works for him.

  20. Peter van Onselen
    56m56 minutes ago
    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    The Speaker accuses the HRC President of political bias. Am I living in a parallel universe…the Speaker is supposed

  21. Poor PVO he is despairing

    Peter van Onselen
    55m55 minutes ago
    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    The Speaker just became a parody, and she already was!

  22. cityboy@74

    Doesn’t really seem to have bought Lib fans much solace that newspoll.

    No, they are not as buoyant on Twitter as they normally would be for a 49:51.

  23. sprocket @ 73
    Must resist ….

    I will restrict myself to saying one thing.

    This is an adversarial environment. No one side controls everything, gets to pick and choose every fight or gets everything on their own terms.

  24. Wakefield

    The Qanda audience was split roughly 50/50 Labor-Greens/Coalition.

    But on the rear camera view of applause the whole hall seemed to be applauding GT ….. well over 50% ….. over 80% in my view.

    Bishop exudes “I am the ruling class” and I suspect she has no insight into what she really is nor into how others widely see her. …. ie as a hack, a clown, an unconscionable pug, just like her so called “political child” (by JWH).

  25. the biggest danger is that labor voters, as the clear majority here appear to be, make themselves feel better by continually carping about how stupid abbott and the liberals are…they are very smart and very nasty and they are in the process of setting up one of the smartest re-election strategies in contemporary australian political history…they will be re-elected with an increased majority…tony abbott will be…and rightly so….claimed as the bold political innovator he is…no australian politician in history would have ever been so courageous as to conduct the completely dishonest and unprincipled negative campaign he used against gillard…and no australian politician has ever been so unprincipled in office…he knows the australian electorate and how far they can be pushed even better than keating…he is the greatest political genius of his generation and he is going to be there for a long time…look at the symmetry beetween the bludgertrack of this term and howard’s first two terms…tony is just coming into his stride…and similarly to howard…the blame for the destruction he will do australian public life can be placed fairly and squarely on left leaning voters who should know better than to underestimate him…stop laughing….start egging the labor party into a fighting machine which can bring him down…he will not destroy himself…

  26. as I have said before you cannot trust Murdoch polls particularly if abbott is in trouble. they are very predictable if you look into the past and when abbott needs support.

  27. Kevin Bonham@84


    Doesn’t really seem to have bought Lib fans much solace that newspoll.

    No, they are not as buoyant on Twitter as they normally would be for a 49:51.

    It is starting to look like their team has thrown everything they can against their opponents, with the full backing of Rupert, and yet are still in an election losing position.

    We need another round of polls to see the full effect of the last couple of weeks, but they cannot be happy with so little payoff for their efforts.

  28. psyclaw 87. There seemed to be a fair number of law students in audience of QnA. Even Lib lawyers usually have some sympathy for the rule of law.

  29. The day Labor takes the advice of trolls like TBA is the day that they deserve to fail at the next election.

    Come on, TBA, be honest: We all know that what you really want to see isn’t Shorten gone, it’s another round of Labor leader$hit to distract from the incompetence, mendacity and sheer hopelessness of the Abbott regime.

  30. Labor look to be the tighter team at the moment despite the mud being flung at Shorten. My only criticism of Shorten is that I think he over-projects gravitas in his speech. Needs to ease it down a tad and just be natural in speech. A bit more “I speak softly but carry a big stick’.. Less projected deep voice. He doesn’t need to do that as his speeches have for the most part been pretty good in terms of content and coherence.

    The big test for Bill will be his forthcoming defence at the witch trial under the inquisitor Heydon. If he is indeed made of wood then he will be proven a witch and Abbott will probably call a DD immediately. But if not…

  31. 89

    You obviously have not read Bludgertrack correctly.

    In the first term (1996-1998) it took Howard 18 months to be behind, on 2PP, in the polls an he got almost as high a 60% 2PP in the polls.

    It only took Abbott 3 months to get behind on 2PP and he peaked at only 53%.

  32. 95 Abbott is just in a last stand for “don’t comment” after Dutton, Andrews and a couple of his other supporters lost their lines – probably because Peta was distracted by photo issues.

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *