Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The final result for Newspoll-as-we-know-it is much better for the Coalition than Ipsos or Morgan, and also records poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.

The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 26
1 2 3 4 26
  1. [ The big test for Bill will be his forthcoming defence at the witch trial under the inquisitor Heydon. ]

    I really dont think its much of a test and suspect he will perform well. So far they have put up nothing illegal, nothing that was previously hidden that will give him any trouble.

    Payments to people smugglers though……..

    Why the fwark does Bishop keep thinking she has some right of reply after anyone else has spoken on QANDA tonight??

  2. Libs looked smug today. Maybe they know they are close to provoking reaction from Indonesia or a more serious home grown terror attack.

  3. imacca @ 101

    [I really dont think its much of a test and suspect he will perform well. So far they have put up nothing illegal, nothing that was previously hidden that will give him any trouble.]

    By the time he appears, the RC will be so discredited as a witch hunt that nothing short of the most serious and clear allegations of criminality will have an impact. Every day some Clown Circus dope demands that Shorten respond right now to whatever allegations are thrown up is a day in which Shorten can remind the public that he will answer all the questions at the appropriate time – which is before the Commission – and by the way, the Commission is nothing more than an $80 million smear set up by Captain Chaos.

  4. 105

    The Trade Union Royal Commission is also something else (especially combined with the Home Insulation Royal Commission). It is permission to conduct Royal Commissions into the activity of the Abbott Government. They may well dig up some more serious issues.

  5. [Newspoll is the most accurate poll.

    Complete myth. William?]

    I tend to think that title belongs to Galaxy. I recall that you were calling out Newspoll for being too erratic before I arrived at that view myself.

  6. Kevin Bonham

    I was interested in your comment re LNP supporters being very subdued on twitter. Don’t want to jonah myself but I havn’t had a troll after me for about a month now, usually I averaged about 3 or 4 at least a week

    Something seemes to have changed 😀

  7. Bishop is a figure with no dignity or grace whatsoever. She is lecturing Triggs at every opportunity.

    Frankly, Triggs is performing her duties to the Australian people much more diligently than Bishop is meeting hers.

  8. Stuart Grant

    1. It won’t be up to Labor voters to see Abbott off. It will be up to the middle couple of percent …. ie the swingers.

    2. Swingers don’t act proactively to change government policy. They reflect upon it applying “what’s in it for me”

    3. What Labor supporters say here amounts to ventilation, news and idea swapping, interpersonal antagonism, analysis of issues, speculation, and wishing. By and large what is said here won’t bring about nor block a change of government.

    4. Abbott is no political genius. He is just an unconscionable, narcissistic pug who will do whatever it takes to achieve his own ends. He will lie, attack anyone in his path and he will trash all conventions AND the rule of law, if necessary.

    He stands out as a (pseudo) achiever because he is detached from the milk of human decency to an extent that even the worst political pugs of the past or present have ever contemplated.

  9. AFP looks hopelessly compromised in the cash for smugglers scandal. Should be beyond politics. Doesn’t look to be. Not good for Australia.

  10. psyclaw
    [By and large what is said here won’t bring about nor block a change of government.]
    My ego, shattered. How cruel you are.

  11. Wow. QANDA just finished over here.

    I am appalled at the way that Bishop tried to bully and denigrate Triggs at pretty much every opportunity. This is the Speaker of the House?? It appears that not only is she a disgustingly biased and obnoxious Speaker in the HoR, but a nasty an dsurprisingly ignorant piece of work outside of it.

  12. 114
    Yes we should hall the officials before a commission every time an allegation is made. Maybe you should call for the disembarkation of all Australia’s counter intelligence bodies. Go for it.

  13. psyclaw

    I’m not happy about the concept or term, in a polling sense, of the “middle couple of percent/swingers’.
    I suspect it presumes a straight line spectrum [A][B], with the fore mentioned concept occupying somewhere in the middle,that does not exist in reality.
    Because of the complexity of voters and issues.
    Looking at specific issues in opinion polls, sure, we can see general groupings using Party labels but we can also see that for most issues a minority chunk of any major party supports a different position to their alleged cohort and actually align with party B.
    For most issues there is approval and disapproval from varying numbers of each ‘traditional’ party label.
    So a ‘swinging voter’ on one policy issue may be rusted on for others and the same can apply for the other mob.

    The concept also doesn’t allow for ‘strength’.
    Someone may seem to belong to a particular party on a range of issues but in reality does not vote for that party because they have very strong feelings and opinions about an issue [or 2 that that party] does not support.

    And that’s without starting to look at divisions, significant or not, based on gender, age, and urban/rural as Newspoll quarterly gives us.
    And cross indexing of each.

  14. Cityboy @ 114

    Lets hope so, but I rate them as real dangerous. They are purely about staying in power to further the aims of their corporate backers who in turn provide them with media, financial and policy support. Whatever it takes.

  15. Alberici’s interview with Cormann. Fwark this guy is a dickhead.

    Basically, not answering anything and recycling bullshit lines.

    She is making him look like a complete moron. Not hard i know.

  16. Just been in Dubrovnik, Croatia. Formerly known as Ragusa, the town’s motto seems apt at this time

    Non bene pro toto libertas venditur auro

    (Liberty is not well sold for all the gold)

  17. B.B in your advice you didn’t say anything about a trial.
    B.W. I assumed the government would realise there would need to be a trial because only idiots would think otherwise.

    Bronwyn doing High school debating on QandA.

  18. Fredex

    You are welcome to use any term you like to refer to swinging voters.

    I am simply attempting to refer to those whose votes can turn a 52-48 Labor 2PP to a 52-48 Coalition 2PP. But I am certainly not saying that there is a single, common policy area on which they all individually base their voting decision.

    And I say that Stuart Grant’s inference that what happens on PB has power to actually influence that group to vote Labor is not a sustainable view.

  19. Roger

    Brett Walker QC also assumed that the government would realise that a trial would be needed first..

    But on ABC RN yesterday, and on Qanda, he acknowledged that his assumption was wrong.

    Had he assumed he was dealing with RWNJ pugs ie the Abbotteers, he would not have made the former wrong assumption.

  20. Rossmore

    Was in Dubrovnik last year, beautiful city although climbing the city walls in the heat was petty challinging

  21. rossmore and Ctari

    Was in Dubrovnik last year a beautiful city although climbing the city walls in the heat was pretty challenging.

    I won’t talk about Croatian ferry men who refused to help at all with luggage just screamed to put somwhere else, that is where I finished up with a pulled back muscle

  22. [But on ABC RN yesterday, and on Qanda, he acknowledged that his assumption was wrong.]

    His expression of error was somewhat sardonic. It was the equivalent of the average person saying they cannot believe that the Treasurer of Australia would think that poor people don’t drive – let alone say it repeatedly in public.

  23. Morning all. Gillard still has trouble admitting she lied.
    [But she does concede she gave him hope his leadership was safe.

    “I can understand why Kevin felt that, you know, there was a potential wedge of sun on the horizon.

    “I should have been more straight forward and more clinical and less discursive. Being discursive did give Kevin false hope and that’s down to me.”]

    Its OK though. The rest of us worked out at the time she wa lying, despite the spin. That was why she had so little credibility as leader.

    Shorten’s role in this fiasco continues to do his creibility more damage than anything he did/failed to do in the AWU. Have a good day all.

  24. True Blue

    Have you really stopped the boats, the problem is if the government cannot be straight about did it or did it not pay the people smugglers then that raises all sorts of questions about this government so please keep telling me that you have stopped the boats and I will read US$30,000

    Time for some honesty, if it truly believes that its the right policy then it should proudly say yep and the result is X Y Z but no what we have is this silly childish game.

  25. SMH Online headline and pic “Speaker brings child to Qanda”

    “child” is of course euphemism for “unconscionable vitriolic bitch”

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A bit difficult to get to sleep last night after been exposed to Bronwyn Bishop (who looked like she came straight out of Downton Abbey) on Q and A!

    Leaded briefing papers expose Abbott’s (Credlin’s) tactics.
    Matt Golding little cameo cartoon says plenty.

    Gillian Triggs cleaned up a sour-pussed Bronwyn Bishop last night. The audience helped too.
    The Indonesian Vice-President steps up to the plate to criticise our government.
    It includes a nice little Cathy Wilcox cartoon.

    The diplomatic row ratchets up.
    Meanwhile government MPs line up to support on high seas pay offs.
    Abbott faces three probes into the high seas pay off.
    Paying people smugglers sinks the excuses for out heartless refugee policy.
    Michelle Grattan says that this government will do whatever t takes to stop the boats.

  27. Section 2 . . .

    The Tax Office’s great compliance massacre.
    The child abuse Royal Commission steps into another religion – the religion of celebrity.
    Peter Martin warns us to expect even higher house prices.
    How the government is wrecking primary health care and shedding jobs. A very detailed article from Ben Eltham.
    Move over Aldi, there’s an even cheaper store coming to Australia.
    How the small business tax write down can make a small business worse off.
    Tony Abbott and the “lesser breeds”.,7828
    News Corp covers up for Abbott the story of the year.,7826
    Peter Hartcher stands up for the judgement of the “punters”.

  28. Section 4 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox on the objectives of the high seas pay off strategy.

    Alan Moir captures Abbott’s thoughts on landscape beauty.

    Ron Tandberg helps Joe Hockey out.

    MUST SEE! David Pope introduces the Abbott coyote.

    And Mark Knight brings another Abbott character – Captain Hook or Crook.

    Brilliant work from David Rowe gives new meaning to “on water matter”.

    John Kudelka with our new border protection vessel.

  29. Are there any investigative reporters of the Woodward/Bernstein quality still left in the Australian mainstream media ??? to get to the bottom of the money for smugglers truth – they all seem like political party aligned hacks endlessly repeating internet sourced material and churning out the same in tweets all day

  30. [Julia Gillard says Hillary Clinton should “call out” the inevitable sexist attacks on her early in her run for president, because otherwise they will just get worse.

    Speaking at a London ‘summit’ for successful women, Ms Gillard picked out her own handling of sexist and misogynistic attacks as “one thing I absolutely did get wrong” – in that she didn’t directly address it soon enough.

    “Instead as I went along and did the job … the reaction about gender heightened because it became a sort of convenient cudgel of criticism when you wanted to take a shot at the government.]

    And arguably Clinton will have it much worse with the absolute feral US rightwing media, led by Fox News.

  31. [Are there any investigative reporters of the Woodward/Bernstein quality still left in the Australian mainstream media ???]

    I don’t doubt we have one or two of them floating around the place.

    It is more a case of needing an editor like Ben Bradlee, and a publisher like Katharine Graham, to back them.

  32. Clinton is in a far stronger position than Gillard was, so at this stage, no she doesn’t need to go down that route.

  33. @BevanShields: Pretty incredible twist in the ‘paying people smugglers’ story by @davidwroe and @SarWhyte coming to Fairfax Media websites shortly #auspol

  34. Rather than listen to Question Time, if you want the Abbott government thinking just browse the Murdoch websites.

    Always wonder, however, which one is ‘dropping’ to the other.

  35. Morning everyone,

    sprocket_ – it’s good to know that Fairfax has apparently been doing some good old fashioned journalism when it comes to onWatergate.

  36. The editorial in today’s SMH is scathing of the govt over national security, but also over the Cabinet leaks. I like its advice to the leaker, but it ain’t ever gonna happen – it’s naive to assume there’s an honourable one amongst them!

    [The latest leak also reveals the depth of the cabinet split on the issue. The first leak earlier this month revealed details of how five ministers argued strongly against either the proposed law on dual nationals and/or a more extreme proposal promoted by Mr Abbott and Mr Dutton. That would allow the minister to revoke the citizenship of sole nationals as long as they were not left stateless. Again, the government has been warned that is not workable.

    Someone in cabinet or close to it is so concerned that he or she is prepared to risk criminal conviction by breaching confidentiality. Surely the honourable thing is to resign from the frontbench and argue in public against the government’s plans.]

  37. Fairfax is rehashing what was provided to Murdoch organs already.

    Peta and Mark Simkin have been earning their keep

    [Cash payments have been made to members of Indonesian people-smuggling rings by Australian intelligence officials for at least the past four years – including under the former Labor government, Fairfax Media has learnt.

    Multiple sources have said that such payments have been part of successive governments’ tactics, though not always as part of boat turnbacks, which were not used by the previous government.]

  38. [Instances include paying members of syndicates for information about the operations of the syndicate, or to dissuade them from launching boats.]

    This isn’t news.

  39. It might be wise for Labor to make it clear that their payments were not part of boat turnbacks, because people are very eager to paint the two parties as same-same.

Comments Page 3 of 26
1 2 3 4 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *