The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.
The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.
victoria
Imagine a time when every news media outlet would pick up that story from Newmatilda. Ahhhhh, imagine.
Either that or Labor could rely on their genius in slicing and dicing arguments.
[1068
meher baba
Rental housing is a commercial good, and the people who provide it should, generally speaking, be allowed the same tax treatment that other people who provide commercial goods and services receive.]
If all rental housing came from new supply, this would be a valid argument. But it doesn’t. Nearly all (much more than 90%) of property purchased for rental is existing stock. Capital allocated to this is really “saving” rather than “investment”, inasmuch as it does not add to output.
What the negative gearing and CGT rules do is to provide a subsidy to the savings of one class (the wealthiest) of households.
In this connection, it is useful to reflect on the distribution of savings in Australia. As it turns out, the financial assets of the wealthiest quintile are 200 times greater than the savings of the least wealthy quintile. That is an absolutely extraordinary difference. Among the least-wealthy, average savings are around $6000 per household, of which less than half is available as cash.
This derives in part from the effects of subsidising the savings of the wealthiest households, which is precisely what negative gearing is aimed at doing.
SK
Our media is next to useless
Rigging the tax system to deliver windfall capital gains to a small group of people and unaffordable housing for everyone else, at a huge economic and social cost, is not consistent with good economic management.
The tax system in relation to land needs to be changed.
Our housing crisis is chiefly a result of poor tax policy. Urban planning is an important component but the biggest gains will be achieved by reforming bad tax laws.
Under your hyperbolic definition, Germany is a communist country. Germany housing policy is this: high land tax, strong tenants’ rights, no negative gearing. We should emulate that approach.
So Liberals are using dirt files to get rid of Shorten.
Are they so afraid? TBA?
I thought Dirt files were denied by Abbott/Peta Credlin under Gillard?
Who cares about anything else, democracy is at stake here.
1099
meher baba
Suffice to say that -ve gearing is just a part of the problem, for sure. But it really does institutionalise and exacerbate the significant decline in home-ownership rates and the concentration of both poverty and wealth in the economy.
This is bad enough in its own way.
But it also means real wages are lower than they need to be, that the economy is less dynamic and employment-output-profits are lower, and that rates of capital formation are repressed.
This is worse, because it means that the future will be a less prosperous one than it should be.
There is also a very respectable argument to say that growing inequality in the distribution of wealth necessarily means growth will be lower. It’s a good argument.
Jake @1100:
I see that – true to form – the mainstream media has it in for the ALP again.
I don’t recall any such exposes being done on Abbott prior to his ascension to the Lodge – does anyone else?
1099
The CGT discount change in 1998 increased the rate of increase in house prices and advantaged the investors over owner occupiers. Before CGT was almost all before the Hawke-Keating banking deregulation.
Other vehicles for saving do not keep people from buying their own home.
In fact Matt the media ran a mile from any incriminating stories, and there were plenty…….
The MSM didn’t go nearly hard enough on Ashbygate.
JimmyDoyle
Re German house prices. In the early 2000s I read an article about German house prices. The writer thought the real value of houses not increasing for many years was a “problem” . Somehow it was an indicator of something wrong with their economy.
Then and now I think der ‘Chermans’ have it right.
[1113
poroti
JimmyDoyle
Re German house prices. In the early 2000s I read an article about German house prices. The writer thought the real value of houses not increasing for many years was a “problem” . Somehow it was an indicator of something wrong with their economy.
Then and now I think der ‘Chermans’ have it right.]
The Germans have figured out that to maintain their hegemony in the industrial goods sector, they need to allocate their capital into capital goods, manufacturing technologies, skills formation and the heavy-basic industries complex, and direct their production into the export sector.
Consequently, they have policies that are designed to keep wage pressures low and to allocate capital away from unproductive uses, such as suburban macmansions… 🙂
RD
Everyone was covering their arses.
With share portfolios, with a margin loan you can borrow pretty much any amount but its advisable to supply as much equity as possible. Margin loans are more common with shares than negative gearing them.
The Senate has passed a motion demanding that Turnbull table the full business case for the Coalition’s NBN.
http://www.jasonclare.com.au/media/portfolio-media-releases/2587-senate-orders-turnbull-to-release-nbn-business-case
briefly
Nice way to explain it. Another big benefit is the average Heinz and Hedda has less stress and worry about affording a place to live.
Re low wage pressure. There was a good move by the Germans a while back when things were a bit grim for them . They got business to agree to job security for the workers and the workers agreed to wage restraint.
Lefty:
[I have to say, I dont know how Shorto managed to screw the pooch so bad over bribing people smugglers.]
Shorten’s problem is that he too often allows Abbott to define the terms of the argument. On paying bribes to people smugglers he let Abbott define the argument as about “stopping the boats by hook or by crook” when it should’ve been about the criminal activity of the government. He played it too nice instead of calling out Abbott’s lies and his flagrant disregard for the law. To simplify things he should’ve labeled Abbott a crook in bed with the people smugglers. He needed to tap into the widely held belief that Abbott can’t be trusted and if he’s prepared to do dodgy deals with criminals to win a few votes what’s he prepared to do to get his way on the GP co-payment, tax breaks for the super rich and the rest of the 75 items on the IPA’s to do list.
Shorten needs to make it clear that Abbott is a crook and a liar, who represents a most unseemly threat to everything that is good about this country. He’s a threat to our democracy, the rule of law, people’s jobs, their retirement income, the social safety net and Australia’s way of life. Asylum seekers aren’t the threat, Tony Abbott is! Maybe even throw a bone to the rednecks with something about Abbott showing more allegiance to his mother country then he does to Australia. However he plays it Shorten needs to play it hard. He needs to stir up the right wing media and get Bolt and Jones frothing at the mouth. He needs to show he’s willing to fight for the Prime Ministership so we know that when the time comes he’ll fight for us.
[1116
mexicanbeemer
With share portfolios, with a margin loan you can borrow pretty much any amount but its advisable to supply as much equity as possible. Margin loans are more common with shares than negative gearing them.]
mb, margin loans can be negatively geared…the interest expense can be claimed as a deduction against dividend or other income.
However, equities are not the same as housing in the sense that buyers of equities all have the opportunity to gear their portfolios. This is not the case with housing – clearly, negatively geared buyers of housing have a commercial advantage. (Of course, nor is it possible to rent an equities portfolio for use as shelter for one’s family.)
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/bill-shortens-union-took-hundreds-of-thousands-from-building-company-20150617-ghq5si.html
They are after Bill!
[1118
poroti
briefly
Nice way to explain it. Another big benefit is the average Heinz and Hedda has less stress and worry about affording a place to live.
Re low wage pressure. There was a good move by the Germans a while back when things were a bit grim for them . They got business to agree to job security for the workers and the workers agreed to wage restraint.]
…or, to put it another way, they run their economy the way they play football…as a team and with a plan to win…
poroti – whether the Germans see housing as a social good that should not be subject to market inequities, or whether it is a result of economic planning, as briefly suggests, one thing is clear: despite Germany being a quite unequal society, it is still a country where lower-income individuals and families can still live in the centre of German cities, close to work, close to transport and close to amenities.
Alan Shore #1119
Well said.
Unfortunately, the small target strategy is favoured.
MTBW
[They are after Bill!]
Something is going on. A day or two back I posted the virtual wall to wall “boo Labor” headlines in the GG. From then and since then I have also noted commentators on Sky have gone very hard on Shorten. PvO one of the stand outs. It is not that they are criticising him so much as the much much nastier tone.
JimmyDoyle
+ A brazillion.
Thanks Briefly, I didn’t know that about margin loans.
Briefly and others above.
The Germans also have a population growth rate close to zero so there is not the constant demand that exists in this country just from population growth alone.
Part of the problem in this country is that there has been no housing policy as such – the ‘great australian dream’ of home ownership sufficing. And like we are seeing with superannuation, the benefits to negative gearers are harder and harder to unpick. We now – in Sydney and Melbourne in particular – we have a crisis and no apparent solution.
All of Victoria’s link:
https://newmatilda.com/2015/06/17/inquiry-targeting-green-groups-accidentally-exposes-145-million-mining-tax-dodge
The main reason Abbott & Howad are / were incompetent gooses is that they are supported by incompetent Australian business management & there has been no shortage of them over the years from Sol Trujillo to Woolworths O’Brien to the Ray Williams idiot that ran HIH
http://www.fool.com.au/2015/06/16/why-i-think-woolworths-limited-is-no-longer-a-blue-chip-business/
[Other vehicles for saving do not keep people from buying their own home.]
Allowing self managed super funds to buy property has pushed up prices as well.
poroti
We have got to accept that Bill has history.
I think that Bill will be centre stage next Tuesday night when the last segment of The Killing Field will be run.
Have you watched the last two shows? I think the last one will be a blinder.
They are after Bill!
They have found that “national security Boo” no longer works; still behind in polls; have try try something.
[He needs to show he’s willing to fight for the Prime Ministership so we know that when the time comes he’ll fight for us.]
The problem with Bill Shorten is that he gives the impression that the most important thing is the fight for Bill Shorten and not much else.
3h3 hours ago
BobbieAnt @bobbieskates
Well well well Government refuses to give docs regarding payments for people trafficking. #auspol #watergate
Embedded image
We may find that the most effective opposition to Tony Abbott will not come from the Labor Party and instead from within cabinet.
[
MTBW
Posted Wednesday, June 17, 2015 at 6:25 pm | Permalink
poroti
We have got to accept that Bill has history.
]
Given the competence of those executing the strategy; I doubt it. What we don’t know is how they stuff it up.
ABC News 24
11m11 minutes ago
ABC News 24 @ABCNews24
ABC has obtained images showing Australia allegedly intercepting #asylumseeker boat behind bribery claims
MTBW
Currently watched 0 of 2.
frednk
We will have to wait and see!
[1128
blackburnseph
we have a crisis and no apparent solution.
We do have solutions:
– Increase density closer to sources of jobs and already existing infrastructure. If we as a country are going to continue to insist on living in a few large cities, this is a no-brainer.
– Introduce strong tenants’ rights.
– Gradually reform the tax code so that property investment and speculation do not get preferential tax treatment.
poroti
Sarah Ferguson has done a very good job in my opinion,
It is amazing how many ins and outs you miss on a day to day basis.
Last nights episode was well worth watching.
I am waiting for bloody Swan to appear – don’t like the man at all.
Jimmy @ 1141
You propose solutions but there are no government policy solutions. Or seemingly from the Labor Party either.
To your list, I would add removing all first home buyers grants etc. – it just puts taxpayers money straight into the hands of developers.
Northern Territory MP Robyn Lambley quits the Country Liberal Party, ostensibly because her party is under the control of “fallen figures”, although the abolition of her seat in the just-announced redistribution seems to have had a lot to do with it.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/robyn-lambley-leaves-clp-says-party-has-been-compromised-by-fallen-figures/story-fnk0b1zt-1227402805407
In Canada, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau promises sweeping reforms to the country’s British-style electoral system, perhaps to include preferential and compulsory voting.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/11140372/story.html
MTBW
They are after Bill….
Maybe some PB union Lawyer types ( if any?) could place this latest bat up in the context of the last LNP governments employment policy.
The payments referred to in the Age are all of a period that followed the High Court overturning Fedral Court approved ” non Union payments “…..
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/02/1093939055541.html?from=storylhs
I see the Age payments as a way of receiving “legal” payments following the High Court ruling.
Just more shallow Australian non- investigative journalism
When I watch JULieB in QT I cannot believe she has any more compassion in her than Abbott & the rest of the crew. Asbestos Julie always in the forefront.
[Bevan Shields @BevanShields · 1h1 hour ago
Sinodinos again repeating his call for judicial involvement in stripping dual nationals of citizenship #auspll ]
lizzie – I’ve always thought the same.
Never had any time for her – just another tory and all that means.
dave
Her humour is always on the ‘bitchy’ side. She had a softer look when younger, but it’s vanished.
blackburnseph – fair point. I agree about the first home buyers grant. Housing affordability is a salient issue within the ALP and there has been policy development going on, so hopefully the parliamentary party decides to offer some of those policies to the public.
Having thought about the problem a little more, if you just increased inner city density and introduced strong tenants’ rights (perpetual lease, difficult to evict, regulated prices etc) you would subsequently force rental prices down while forcing property quality up, and you could avoid a messy fight over taxation, because if you can convince a lot more people that renting is a viable and even attractive option over a longer period of their lives, then that would drive down demand, and it would also reduce the attractiveness of housing as an investment.