James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result for The Australian, which I believe will be the third last poll we get from Newspoll-as-we-know-it, has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor steady on 37% and the Greens up one to 13%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 38% and his disapproval up one to 53%, while Bill Shorten continues to haemorrhage at 32% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 41-37, up from 41-40. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1169.
Also:
• The latest fortnightly Morgan result records a slight increase in Labor’s lead after an unusually weak result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote down half a point to 41%, Labor’s up a point and a half to 37%, the Greens up half to 13% and Palmer United down among Katter’s Australian Party in statistically insignficant territory. This results in a slight shift in the two-party lead from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48, although a stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences this time causes a bigger move on that measure, from 51-49 to 53-47.
• Media outlets have reported on two privately conducted ReachTEL polls over the past week, both providing encouraging news for the Coalition. The Guardian reported on an ACTU-commissioned poll of marginal seats which found “a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor”. I take that to suggest an overall two-party swing to Labor of around 2%. The poll was conducted a fortnight ago, and targeted one seat in each state: Page, Corangamite, Leichhardt, Swan, Hindmarsh and Braddon. Further results in the article relate an expectation that the government will make further cuts to health and education. The Australian reported that polling of four of Tasmania’s five seats, the exception being Denison, found Labor losing support to the Greens while the Coalition held firm, and also found about 40% agreeing they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported reinstatement of wood waste in the Renewable Energy Target, compared with around 14% for less likely. The polls were conducted on May 21 for the Australian Forest Products Association.
• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella will face two rivals for Liberal preselection in her bid to recover her old seat of Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. One is Kevin Ekendahl, owner of an auditing and compliance business in Wodonga and candidate for Melbourne Ports in 2010 and 2013, who has “campaigned for same-sex marriage”, which Mirabella opposes. The other is Andrew Walpole, who owns property in the electorate but works as an anaesthetist at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital in Melbourne. Speaking of Melbourne-based, an Australian Federal Police deputy commissioner told Senate estimates this week that it had referred to the public prosecutor four alleged cases of fraudulent involvement from the electorate, out of 28 cases referred to it. This follows claims last year that a substantial number of Cathy McGowan had enrolled in the electorate despite living in Melbourne, most of them being university students who grew up in the electorate.
• Special Minister of State Michael Ronaldson has ordered a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into “claims of intimidation outside election polling booths and the handing out of misleading leaflets”.
• The AEC published public submissions last week as part of its process for the federal redistribution of New South Wales, which will reduce the state’s seat share from 48 to 47. I put the submissions for the two major parties through the wringer in this post, where you can find interactive maps of the proposals along with my determinations of notional seat margins. I’ve also belatedly attached such a map to my similar post for the Western Australian redistribution from mid-April. Draft boundaries for both redistributions are scheduled for the third quarter of this year, with final determinations to be made early next year. There is also a redistribution of the two Australian Capital Territory seats in train, which no one seems terribly excited about.
• I had paywalled pieces in Crikey last week concerning the electoral dimensions of same-sex marriage and contradictory Queensland state poll results.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in the weekly reading from Essential Research is a one point increase in the Labor primary vote to 40%, leaving the Coalition 41%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 1%, with Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds 59% saying it should be allowed and 30% saying it shouldn’t, respectively steady and up two since February. However, the difference is narrower on likelihood of same-sex marriage influencing vote choice, with 34% saying more likely and 22% less likely. Also feaatured are questions on leadership attributes, which as usual record collective movements in line with recent polling on personal approval. That means better ratings for Tony Abbott than in February, with the biggest movements on “out of touch with ordinary people” (down seven to 65%), “erratic” (down six to 54%) and “a capable leader” (up six to 40%). Bill Shorten’s movements might be thought surprisingly modest given his recent polling form – he’s down four points on “a capable leader” to 43%, but also on “narrow-minded”, to 34%.
As it does from time to time, Essential has also sought to gauge the accuracy of respondents’ understanding a public policy issue, in this case the proportion of the federal budget devoted to foreign aid, and found only 13% offering the correct answer of less than 1%. This gives a bit of edge to its finding that 44% think the government spends too much on foreign aid, compared with 16% for too little and 21% for just right. Respondents were also asked to rate the importance of giving foreign aid to various countries, with impoverished neighbours rating highest (66% for Pacific Island countries, 65% for Papua New Guinea) and, I cannot help but notice, Islamic countries rating lowest (Indonesia 39%, Middle East countries 26%).
Truebluetroll @1188:
Scott Morrison? He’s a two-bit liar and bully!
1179 – “Shorten’s gambit with the small business tax cuts is obviously to shut Abbott up about it, that’s all. Now he has to move onto something else or he’ll look like an idiot,”
Sorry??? but when has Abbott NOT looked like an idiot?
I see that Happiness is threatening to do something ad nauseam.
That would be a gimme.
[“Is that SMH article misleading? My understanding is the government voted against a Labor motion and not the bill itself.”]
It’s the SMH… what do you reckon?
Fear not Jake, I am still overflowing with the milk of human happiness.
I just don’t understand what you are saying. I have been commenting about the seat projections, hence my confusion with your comments asking why I haven’t been commenting about seat projections.
You might care to scroll up earlier tonight, for example, if you want to see a post from me about seat projections!
Great fun this political blogging aint it? 🙂
david, silmaj:
And what was that motion?
It was a motion to bring the bill up for an immediate vote seeing as everyone agreed on it, so that the House could stick it in the Senate’s “in” tray and move to other business.
Desperate to avoid being wedged on the “other business” (i.e., SSM private member’s bill), the Coalition instead voted to keep the small-business bill hung up in the House.
CE
There is an unwritten law, Godwin’s Unwritten Law?, which says that the first person who goes reductio ad Hitleram loses the argument.
And that is not all. Mr Abbott and his Liberats reckon that Shorten was politicising the issue and doing a stunt.
Gasp.
davidwh
Here’s the thing Dave. The A Bott has shouted at least 6 times in QT and other places that Labor should “bring it on” ASAP . Labor did and the Libs did ?
The Blood Oaf and Bill “But wait there is more” Billson’s reason for their nay is that backbench drones would be denied a chance to speak on the matter. FMD!
Matt but it was still the motion the government voted against not the bill. There hasn’t been a vote on the bill itself yet. Am I wrong? If not then the government didn’t vote against their own bill.
It was just a political maneuver.
Yes, I am sure the swinging voters have all jumped to Shorten now that the government won the vote in the House on the procedural motion of whether or not to proceed with a vote on a bill.
Its all over red rover…..
Steve777:
Agreed – I would click “Like” if I could!
Basically Labor was trying to prevent government members from speaking in support of the bill?
Watching Billson just now. Post politics he has a glittering career ahead as a “Former Nigerian oil minister”
1206
It obviously had nothing to do with stopping the subject of small business being discussed for a period of time. These things best not discussed because the record of labor in this area is abysmal. That is what it was about.
Davidwh:
[Matt but it was still the motion the government voted against not the bill. There hasn’t been a vote on the bill itself yet. Am I wrong? If not then the government didn’t vote against their own bill.
It was just a political maneuver.]
If the Libs had voted -for- the motion, the bill would have immediately passed the House, on the strength of the Government’s numbers if nothing else.
They voted -against- the motion, locking the bill in the House.
While they were -technically- voting against the motion, not the bill, the reality is that of the two choices they had, they chose the one that would lead to the bill not becoming law quicker.
Mind you, -that- was after Abbott spent 5 days heckling Labor to support it. Labor supported it, brought it up for a vote and Abbott….voted to delay it, in a pure political stunt designed to keep the House occupied with busywork so that they “don’t have time to” table the same-sex marriage bill.
The Liberal trolls around here want to talk about “political stunts”? Worst case of projection I’ve seen in awhile!
[Desperate to avoid being wedged on the “other business” (i.e., SSM private member’s bill), the Coalition instead voted to keep the small-business bill hung up in the House.]
And in the process, getting wedged on their own spruiking over the last 5 days!
[ My understanding is the government voted against a Labor motion and not the bill itself. Isn’t that the situation?]
Technically correct, but practically meaningless.
In voting against the motion they were deciding NOT to vote on a bill that would have passed the HoR then and there, which they had been ranting about need to pass as a mater of urgency.
So yes, you are correct, but the Federal Libs are still fools.
davidwh
Labor did what they were challenged to do your lot. What effing difference would it make that backbench nobodies were denied their 5 minutes of irrelavent preening ?
[ Scott Morrison? He’s a two-bit liar and bully! ]
And you wonder why he appeals to TBA??
The NOalition, true to their form, voted not to vote on their policy, you know, the one that had to be passed with all possible speed. That’s what happened.
It’s a huge fucking joke & the usual crew are desperately trying to hose it down.
david
The Coalition have been going on all week about Labor being in the way. Is it a political stunt? Sure, it’s a political stunt in response to political posturing.
silmaj
Oh sure, politicians would suddenly shut up and stop talking about small business just because one piece of legislation passed the lower house.
The Libs calling for Labor to pass the measures quickly was the stunt.
Labor called them on it and the Libs went into headless chook mode
[“While they were -technically- voting against the motion, not the bill, the reality is that of the two choices they had, they chose the one that would lead to the bill not becoming law quicker.”]
Absolute and Complete HORSE RADISH.
The senate isn’t sitting for voting on legislation as it’s currently doing estimate hearings.
It’s like claiming you’ll get to the U.K faster if you fly from Melbourne to Sydney 1 week before your U.K flight is due to leave. Stupid.
[It was just a political maneuver.]
So was not voting for the motion.
Matt isn’t that the right of the party who has the majority in the House?
When the Coalition tried these types of moves in opposition PB was in an uproar over their hide to try such stunts. Double Standards?
@1191
[Towards the end of Senator Collins’ questioning, about 6.30pm, Queensland National Barry O’Sullivan told the chairman, “Remind her that I am becoming hungry please.”]
Geez this man’s a pig, why is he always involved in the hearings?! He seems totally useless.
[ Mr Abbott and his Liberats reckon that Shorten was politicising the issue and doing a stunt. ]
Welllll….they would know lots about pointless stunting.
Which you can take any way you like.
Simon agree but they did not vote against their own bill as being reported.
silmaj @1215:
Tell me, does the Sun rise in the west in your world?
Because you certainly don’t live on Earth, where Labor deftly steered the economy through the worst downturn since the Great Depression, being the only Western country not to enter recession…and where Abbott’s poised to induce a recession through his sheer economic illiteracy!
While it’s a nice (if small and temporary) sugar hit, it really doesn’t much matter how quickly small businesses can depreciate plant expenditure – if they don’t have paying customers, they’ll fold. And the Coalition seems hell-bent to deprive Australian businesses of customers posthaste!
poroti:
I haven’t seen Billson today or even since his Insiders appearance. Do I need to revisit my opinion of him being one of the govt’s ‘better’ media performers?
Steve 777
Agreed – I would click “Like” if I could!
[ Basically Labor was trying to prevent government members from speaking in support of the bill? ]
OMG!!!!! You mean trying to avoid a pointless waste of time by many extremely highly paid people? How dare they!!! I am shockedddd.
[davidwh
….Double Standards?]
U R going to get yourself in trouble davidwh…..but don’t worry, I will come to your rescue!
😀
I am heartened by the head in the sand attitude of the Tory posters.
Correction: Senate does not even sit until the 15th of June.
Bill Shorten STUNT confirmed.
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Sitting_Calendar
Oh dear. The WA Dept of Agriculture has been all over the local and statewide news tonight spruiking a new weather app that they claim gives you local weather data every 10mins. I’ve just installed the app and tried to register with the dept, but the weblink to the registration doesn’t work, and the app returns an error message.
Someone needs to revisit this tomorrow morning I think.
david @ 1229
It’s fairfax, they will spin headlines any which way to make it sound more sensational than it really is.
The budget confirmed the Commonwealth’s plans to revert from Activity Based Funding of State Hospitals to block/grants. Funding for reducing emergency department and surgical waiting list time has already disappeared.
In comparison to other nation’s universal health schemes Medicare was showing its age. The reforms of Gillard were relatively minor but showed the way to further reform. They are being systematically dismantled.The Federal government appears committed to give us a health scheme for the 70s.
davidwh @1226:
[Matt isn’t that the right of the party who has the majority in the House?]
Not after they spent most of a week kvetching about Labor’s “obstructionism” on the issue and calling it a matter of urgency. Then, refusing to put it through when -Labor- moves to do so reveals their hypocrisy and lies.
After all, if it was so urgent this pass as a “stimulus” (ha!) for small businesses, then why not put it through?
DW @ 1210
[Basically Labor was trying to prevent government members from speaking in support of the bill?]
Sorry, David, but Labor actually did not give a damn about whether the Government backbenchers wanted to record a political message to their electorate at public expense.
What was exercising Labor was the fact that, according to Captain Chaos, passing this legislation was such high priority we cannot even let our brain cells give same sex marriage any attention for even a moment, coupled with the fact that the Captain Chaos team has enormous hearing problems and was still under the impression – or at least trying to give the dumbest members of the public the impression – that Labor was obstructing the measures that it was totally actually in support of.
We should be grateful that members of the government did not suddenly start running out the chamber doors because it would be unethical to accept the Labor Party vote for their essential election on the grounds that it was politically unfair to Liberal lies.
Mikehilliard at 1149, I agree. Abbott seems quite hysterical.
[1164
Happiness]
Yeah, as things stand the LNP are in line to lose around 25-30 seats. When a swing is on, it’s likely it will sweep to high water. Abbott is a particularly vile person. His preference for lies, for violence and for the politics of contempt will repel the voters by the million.
Mod,
[I just don’t understand what you are saying. I have been commenting about the seat projections, hence my confusion with your comments asking why I haven’t been commenting about seat projections.
You might care to scroll up earlier tonight, for example, if you want to see a post from me about seat projections!]
I’ve checked the record and it appears that you have not mentioned seat projections at all tonight, other than in response to me. Would you agree?
I was hoping that Abbott and Pyne would run out of the Chamber when the vote was brought on.
But they continue to disappoint in all things large and small.
[Matt but it was still the motion the government voted against not the bill. There hasn’t been a vote on the bill itself yet. Am I wrong? If not then the government didn’t vote against their own bill.
It was just a political maneuver.]
Whatever motivated either the Labor or Liberals, Labor moved a motion to ensure the faster passage of the bill and the Liberals having demanded faster passage showed themselves for the disgusting parasite on our society that they are. Any decent thinking Australian should be calling for the dangerous lying scum government to resign in disgrace.
[When the Coalition tried these types of moves in opposition PB was in an uproar over their hide to try such stunts. Double Standards?]
Actually I think it’s too funny that the Liberal party, master of playing political stunts are now crying foul because Labor has called their bluff on one of their stunts, making them look like total idiots into the bargain.
1230
So I can assume you are another who predicts bad economic times. Just be prepared to be on the wrong side of the ledger.
[ I am heartened by the head in the sand attitude of the Tory posters. ]
They are cute aren’t they? Dementedly trying to defend when they really should just cop this one.
I love the way TBA has just swallowed their “senate not sitting line” right down with a smile. 🙂
briefly @1243:
While I do not dispute your judgement of Abbott, I recall thinking much the same of Howard, particularly in 2001.
It seems that the Australian populace has a rather larger tolerance for vile leaders than I once thought.