James J in comments relates that the latest Newspoll result for The Australian, which I believe will be the third last poll we get from Newspoll-as-we-know-it, has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor steady on 37% and the Greens up one to 13%. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 38% and his disapproval up one to 53%, while Bill Shorten continues to haemorrhage at 32% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four). Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 41-37, up from 41-40. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1169.
Also:
• The latest fortnightly Morgan result records a slight increase in Labor’s lead after an unusually weak result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote down half a point to 41%, Labor’s up a point and a half to 37%, the Greens up half to 13% and Palmer United down among Katter’s Australian Party in statistically insignficant territory. This results in a slight shift in the two-party lead from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48, although a stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences this time causes a bigger move on that measure, from 51-49 to 53-47.
• Media outlets have reported on two privately conducted ReachTEL polls over the past week, both providing encouraging news for the Coalition. The Guardian reported on an ACTU-commissioned poll of marginal seats which found “a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor”. I take that to suggest an overall two-party swing to Labor of around 2%. The poll was conducted a fortnight ago, and targeted one seat in each state: Page, Corangamite, Leichhardt, Swan, Hindmarsh and Braddon. Further results in the article relate an expectation that the government will make further cuts to health and education. The Australian reported that polling of four of Tasmania’s five seats, the exception being Denison, found Labor losing support to the Greens while the Coalition held firm, and also found about 40% agreeing they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported reinstatement of wood waste in the Renewable Energy Target, compared with around 14% for less likely. The polls were conducted on May 21 for the Australian Forest Products Association.
• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella will face two rivals for Liberal preselection in her bid to recover her old seat of Indi, which she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in 2013. One is Kevin Ekendahl, owner of an auditing and compliance business in Wodonga and candidate for Melbourne Ports in 2010 and 2013, who has “campaigned for same-sex marriage”, which Mirabella opposes. The other is Andrew Walpole, who owns property in the electorate but works as an anaesthetist at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital in Melbourne. Speaking of Melbourne-based, an Australian Federal Police deputy commissioner told Senate estimates this week that it had referred to the public prosecutor four alleged cases of fraudulent involvement from the electorate, out of 28 cases referred to it. This follows claims last year that a substantial number of Cathy McGowan had enrolled in the electorate despite living in Melbourne, most of them being university students who grew up in the electorate.
• Special Minister of State Michael Ronaldson has ordered a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into “claims of intimidation outside election polling booths and the handing out of misleading leaflets”.
• The AEC published public submissions last week as part of its process for the federal redistribution of New South Wales, which will reduce the state’s seat share from 48 to 47. I put the submissions for the two major parties through the wringer in this post, where you can find interactive maps of the proposals along with my determinations of notional seat margins. I’ve also belatedly attached such a map to my similar post for the Western Australian redistribution from mid-April. Draft boundaries for both redistributions are scheduled for the third quarter of this year, with final determinations to be made early next year. There is also a redistribution of the two Australian Capital Territory seats in train, which no one seems terribly excited about.
• I had paywalled pieces in Crikey last week concerning the electoral dimensions of same-sex marriage and contradictory Queensland state poll results.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The only change in the weekly reading from Essential Research is a one point increase in the Labor primary vote to 40%, leaving the Coalition 41%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 1%, with Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48. A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds 59% saying it should be allowed and 30% saying it shouldn’t, respectively steady and up two since February. However, the difference is narrower on likelihood of same-sex marriage influencing vote choice, with 34% saying more likely and 22% less likely. Also feaatured are questions on leadership attributes, which as usual record collective movements in line with recent polling on personal approval. That means better ratings for Tony Abbott than in February, with the biggest movements on “out of touch with ordinary people” (down seven to 65%), “erratic” (down six to 54%) and “a capable leader” (up six to 40%). Bill Shorten’s movements might be thought surprisingly modest given his recent polling form – he’s down four points on “a capable leader” to 43%, but also on “narrow-minded”, to 34%.
As it does from time to time, Essential has also sought to gauge the accuracy of respondents’ understanding a public policy issue, in this case the proportion of the federal budget devoted to foreign aid, and found only 13% offering the correct answer of less than 1%. This gives a bit of edge to its finding that 44% think the government spends too much on foreign aid, compared with 16% for too little and 21% for just right. Respondents were also asked to rate the importance of giving foreign aid to various countries, with impoverished neighbours rating highest (66% for Pacific Island countries, 65% for Papua New Guinea) and, I cannot help but notice, Islamic countries rating lowest (Indonesia 39%, Middle East countries 26%).
confessions
Oh he is indeed one of their “better” media performer but then it is a low bar. He has always come across to me as a ‘telemarketer’ type.
davidwh
Its a circus. The LNP didnt like someone else juggling their balls. The ALP were saying – here, juggle them this way, its quicker and then we can get on and juggle burning torches.
According to the ABC, Goverment “slams” Labor for “Fast Tracking” small business.
So the SMH is not lying.
According to SMH, Labor “ambushed” the goverment.
I don’t see where there is “Double Standards” or “Stunts” said by david or TBA.
OC:
That is deeply disturbing, if not unsurprising given the policy laziness and ideas bankruptcy of the current federal govt.
Matt because the measures have already taken effect, as from the budget announcement, so it doesn’t matter when the bill gets passed as long as it does. The government has a democratic right to allow its MP’s to speak on its bills regardless of whether people think it’s a waste of time. That’s how our democratic system works.
In reality the government with its numbers in the House can pass its legislation anytime it pleases.
Jeez it sucks when the media misreport your side’s political tactics…
Suck. It. Up.
Abbott looks like a goose, but “technically” he’s a gander. FFS 🙂
OC @ 1239
I gather that activity-based funding is a formula/bureacracy based method that leaves politicians mostly out of things, while block-grants are a form of political patronage?
If that’s correct (roughly), it’s hardly any surprise coming from this mob.
@davidwh/1255
The goverment may allow a democratic vote, but the party does not.
There is a bloody difference.
Gay Marriage just isn’t that important to be honest.
We are in the middle of budget season which is vital to the Australian economy and yet we got ALP Navel Gazers trying to make a fringe issue like Gay Marriage the issue of the day. Pullease
[Bill Shorten STUNT confirmed.]
I just wish there was a lawful we could improve our country by sending people like you to places like Iraq in exchange for decent intelligent economic refugees who could actually work to improve the place.
poroti:
The ‘telemarketer’ description is probably apt.
Demtel man? 😀
@TBA/1259
Apparently taxing people is important but not taxing business…
We know where Coalition Party priorities lie.
DispalyName
Treasurer for Sale
david @ 1255
I think you’re missing the point that it was this government implied that time was being wasted.
What do you think all that stuff about urgency, not having time to discuss other issues, and Labor getting in the way was all about?
[ In reality the government with its numbers in the House can pass its legislation anytime it pleases. ]
Fine, so they are deliberately wasting every bodies time. The issue davidwh isn’t that they didn’t have the right or the numbers. Just that it was really fwarking stupid and in context makes them look like fools.
1259
TrueBlueAussie
Posted Wednesday, June 3, 2015 at 8:57 pm | PERMALINK
Gay Marriage just isn’t that important to be honest.
We are in the middle of budget season which is vital to the Australian economy and yet we got ALP Navel Gazers trying to make a fringe issue like Gay Marriage the issue of the day. Pullease
You, sir, are a dead$hit.
[When the Coalition tried these types of moves in opposition PB was in an uproar over their hide to try such stunts. Double Standards?]
David, clearly PB was wrong (I wasn’t here at the time but take your word for it) and the great Australian voting people set us to our rights. Stunts is what it is all about. Whyalla being wiped off the map, running to the exit to avoid ‘accepting’ someone’s vote, standing in front of flag factories, etc. That’s what the great Australian people want. Captain Chaos proved it.
The press is only demanding policies from Shorten because he is not doing enough stunts. After all, that can be the only reason why the same journos did not ask for policies from Abbott at any time (even since the election) – they were mesmerised by his stunts! Mesmerised!
So now Bill Shorten and Labor have seen the light. Australians don’t want policies. Hell, they don’t even want good government – as the tightening of the opinion polls currently suggest.
AUSTRALIANS DEMAND STUNTS from their government. Not bread, but circuses.
And to prove it, the Liberal Party has given us their very own Troll for our delectation and entertainment. What more could we want from the great Liberal Party?
Given that they have to wait until the Senate sits anyway, all such talk from the government is just as much a stupid political game as any fast-track stunt Labor pulls. This government is damned by its own logic.
DN obviously politics but it isn’t just one side who plays that game but here only one side is allowed to apparently.
This pretty well sums up Abbott’s Australia.
@davidwh/1269
And that side would be the Coalition Party right? It wants it’s own way, from Opposition to Power, with no one standing it’s way, that is why they go after unions and ordinary people.
Fringe issues – like terrorism.
Maybe we need a war on thunderstorms. They kill and injure more Australians than terrorists ever did or are likely to. To the extent that Abbott’s posturing on terrirism has any effect, it is more likely to increase the risk.
[1188
TrueBlueAussie
“The Libs will never install Turnbull. ”
Turnbull is a traitor.
His little leaking stunt the other day was the icing on the cake for confirming what most had already assumed, he is trying to make trouble behind the scenes to try and secure the leadership.
And yes… I think Scott Morrison would be a fantastic Prime Minister. He is without a doubt the star performer of this Government.]
Yes, the Turnbull is defending some basic principles that have been the foundation of individual liberty as long as anyone can remember. The separation of powers, the presumption of innocence, the right of an accused to hear and defend themselves against charges made, the proscription against arbitrary imprisonment…these are worth fighting for.
It has crossed my aberrant mind that making love with certain interviewers would be one damn coitus interruptus after another.
[The government has a democratic right to allow its MP’s to speak on its bills regardless of whether people think it’s a waste of time. That’s how our democratic system works.]
Well then if the senate sends it to committee for a couple of months to have it studied and considered properly (we know Joe wont have done that). and then debate it in the senate extensively for about a few more weeks. According to you that would just be how our democratic system works, right?
Except you wouldn’t say that you’d be sprouting whatever ridiculous lies Abbott spun like a echo chamber.
And it is quite a problem at tax return time if the law hasn’t been passed. The kind of problem Abbott would no doubt inflict without a second thought, but even the greens aren’t that stupid.
Yes sure zoidlord that’s what I meant 🙂
[Yes sure zoidlord that’s what I meant :)]
I don’t know david can you think of anything except the 2104 budget that Abbott has done since becoming Leader of the Liberals that isn’t a stunt?
TPOF @ 1267
I wouldn’t take david’s word for it. I’m sure he’s sincere, but there are a few problems. One is checking that the same people complaining then are the ones cheering now. Two is generalising from any individuals so identified to the whole of PB. Three is assuming whatever the Coalition did then is generally equivalent to what Labor just did.
Basically, unless david can produce specific examples that tie together all 3 of the above points, I think his generalising to all of PB is not supported.
Good to see William bowe once again vigilantly policing abuse against anyone who contradicts the pollbludger groupthink.
DN 1257 – absolutely correct but more importantly Activity Based Funding encourages efficiency in health care delivery. Block funding has far fewer controls over how hospitals work and allows states to divert funds away. The blame game starts all over. Of all the retrograde things this government has done this is probably the worst but has gone virtually unnoticed.
david @ 1269
Now you know that’s a load of crap. Nobody here is in a position to (dis)allow anything. Furthermore, should I go find a partisan hack from the Liberal party and generalise their views to every Liberal supporter? Should I assign such views to you? Would that suit you?
EsJ
No worries, I’ll do it.
Stop groupthinking, you lot.
[Good to see William bowe once again vigilantly policing abuse against anyone who contradicts the pollbludger groupthink.]
Oh, you poor conservatives and your victim-hood.
Suck it up, Eddie.
I mean, it annoys me whenever a Labor leaning person takes what is generally assumed to be the Liberal position and insists on attaching it to a Liberal leaning person despite their consistently stated position to the contrary.
[should I go find a partisan hack from the Liberal party and generalise their views to every Liberal supporter? Should I assign such views to you? Would that suit you?]
Don’t know if it would suit him but tonight if the cap fits the dude should wear it.
DN I don’t have time to trawl back through three years of PB posts to try and prove something which wouldn’t be accepted even if I did. I retreat while I can which is the sane thing to do.
[it isn’t just one side who plays that game but here only one side is allowed to apparently.]
You are right there David. The Coalition can play all the politics it likes – for example suggesting that Labor is obstructing the business tax cuts and accelerated depreciation measures even though that is the very opposite of what is true. But when Labor calls their bluff in a politically clever way, the coalition squeal like the juvenile thuggish vandal bullies they are.
I can see why the Troll trots out the line of the hour from the pigs but I expected a bit better from you, I’m sorry to say.
This was, purely and simply, calling the bluff of the Government, who will say fifteen contradictory things a day in answer to fifteen different question and not be tested by the media on any of them. It wasn’t even a stunt if the truth be known. And now our hearts are supposed to bleed because there is no debate on something nobody wants to debate.
If the Liberals want to give their backbench a chance to express their views, bring on the same sex marriage legislation, instead of wasting the nation’s time and money arguing the case for motherhood in the form of concessions for small business.
In the meantime, it’s about time the REAL problems Australia faces are addressed by the Government we are paying handsomely, instead of them spending all of our money and their governing time trying to wedge Labor in order to win the next election.
If ever there was, in the history of Australia, a government that should die of shame it is this one. They bring shame on their party; they bring shame on their supporters and they bring shame on the country. And they have placed the most shameful presiding officer in the history of the westminster tradition in charge of proceedings.
[something which wouldn’t be accepted even if I did.]
It would be accepted by some, or at least on, so this excuse is looking very Abbottesque.
david @ 1286
I am sure you can find an example for a specific comparison and individual. What I object to is generalising it to some mythical PB hive mind.
Re WWP @1260 I just wish there was a lawful we could improve our country by sending people like you to places like Iraq in exchange for decent intelligent economic refugees who could actually work to improve the place.
Future Governments will inherit the citizenship laws that Tony Abbott wants to bring in, should he succeed. A future Labor Government. A future Labor-Green Coalition. Hopefully either would have the sense to retract or moderate such powers. If they don’t, maybe a future far right or far left Government that takes over in the wake of an economic collapse. I don’t think that Australian democracy would be as secure as most think in such circumstances.
Maybe there’s a danger that the relevant minister in a future Government might decide to declare TBA a terrorist, take away his citizenship and deport him.
DN
I am not sure what caused offence this time, but ESJ has cause for complaint from a couple of nights ago.
briefly @ 1273
Turnbull was arguing the case in support of the decision taken by the Government on Monday last week. He can’t be faulted for doing so – except we know that a great many party members, including those squealing about contradicting party policy when it comes to same sex marriage, don’t like that outcome and have no compunction about publicly expressing their opinions on it.
So, according to the Liberal right, Turnbull is out of order for defending a Cabinet decision and they are all fine Aussies for disputing the decision of their own Cabinet.
And yet again the bovine media have largely bought the contradiction without turning a critical brain cell to it.
TPOF
Yes, shame! Shame on them.
What have I done, or not done?
SK
Fair enough, but William doesn’t live here 24/7.
TBA
Yes we are in budget season, why in the days after the budget was the need to appoint a new minister and senior public servant worthy of taking up time which should have been spent on the budget. The appointments could have been made months ago, terrorism is not a new issue.
[1259
TrueBlueAussie
Gay Marriage just isn’t that important to be honest.]
You hold that thought while voters walk away from the LNP.
Or does he …
MH @ 1293
And I should add that the only reason Captain Chaos has not died of shame to this point in time is that he is a psychopath who does not know what shame feels like but does know how to use it as a weapon against his opponents.
[1292
TPOF]
He did declare very clearly that rendering persons stateless was out of the question. This places him in direct opposition to Abbott and verifies the contents of the leak; while also insisting he does not leak Cabinet meetings.
Maybe Abbott was the source. He’s stupid enough to do so.