Every pollster under the sun took the field this week, and the collective verdict from the six pollsters as aggregated in BludgerTrack is that the Coalition two-party vote has lifted 0.7% in the wake of the budget. The result on the seat projection is even more striking, with Labor now reduced to minority government territory, although the presence of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie on the hypothesised cross-bench suggests that 74 seats would still be enough for them to form government. The Coalition has had considerable bang for its post-budget buck on the seat projection, because state breakdowns (including published ones from Ipsos and Morgan, and unpublished ones from ReachTEL and Essential Research) suggest the biggest gain has been in marginal seat-rich Queensland, whereas Labor’s vote has held firm in the less strategically important state of Victoria. All told, the Coalition is credited with two gains in Queensland, and one each in New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. New results on personal ratings were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, and they offer no sign that Tony Abbott’s remarkable recovery from the depths of February is abating, his net approval rating now being no worse than it was before last year’s budget. However, they also suggest that Bill Shorten’s recent downward slide has levelled off.
Apropos of not very much, here’s a display of Newspoll’s post-budget polling results going back to the late 1980s. The scatterplot shows the strong relationship that exists between the results for personal financial impact and overall economic impact, with this year’s result indicated by the pink dot.
That Qld Federal Galaxy poll supports my earlier statement that Fed ALP has to look to NSW for seats.
I see the Head of the Rudd cult has got off his chain again.
[Completely agree with most of that but I think the pedos are under a lot more pressure now, mainly because of community expectations and policing rather than because of any change in the church.
I think the church needs mandatory reporting with severe penalties for non-reporting if there is a suspicion of abuse, in the same way that doctors, nurses, etc have to report suspected abuse.]
Need a change in the church community attitude for mandatory reporting to work, not just the priests but the parishoners too.
A lot of reports coming out of the royal commissioner talk of the abused and their families threatened with being shunned by the church community if they reported the abuse, most recently as 2008 in the Townsville case.
A large part of the extent of the abuse lies with the communities. What was the ballarat community doing when so many were taking their lives, up to 80 by different reports.
I’ve seen no evidence of church communities working to expose the pedos or change the culture, only “nothing to see folks, all good, we’ve fixed it, move on, move on and stop persecuting us’.
The threat of being excluded from community is a powerful one. be good to see a documentary on the roles the church community played as the royal commission is examaning institutional responses not community.
The child who reports rape by priests to their devout parents is at risk of being seen as possessed by evil and to be lying. Parents get a sort of cognitive dissonance. They need to hold two opposing views at once. The ingrained religous beliefs that say a priest is a man who holds to vows at the pain of mortal sin, and a child who says that man is an abuser.
This cannot go on, so either a repudiation of a lifetime’s belief that is the core of identity ( a Catholic believer) or to believe the child is a liar driven by evil.
As the Catholic belief is that every human is born into sin, and must seek redemption through a lifetime of devotion, the kid is behind the eight-ball from the start.
lizzie@1251
Should I demand a male nurse in the room when my female doctor examines me? 😛
bemused
I’m glad you asked that. It depends on how vulnerable you feel, doesn’t it.
BlurbUllage@1277
Ahh, the snipping.
Creates an air of mystery about the site leaving me wondering what was said that was so bad… 😆
bemused
Perhaps William could set up a separate site for the “snips” , “Poll bludger the Sealed Section”
[That Qld Federal Galaxy poll supports my earlier statement that Fed ALP has to look to NSW for seats.]
I’m surprised anybody seriously thought QLD was the place to go for them.
From The Age
[Victoria’s minister for small business, Adam Somyurek, has been stood down over claims of inappropriate behaviour.
Premier Daniel Andrews called a snap press conference on Saturday afternoon to announce that Mr Somyurek was being stood down pending an investigation into the allegations.
The investigation was prompted by a complaint made on Thursday by the minister’s chief of staff to the office of the Premier.]
@theage: #BREAKING Minister stood down over allegations of misconduct made by chief-of-staff http://t.co/PMQ9LycUk8
Is Lenore Taylor trying to be funny with this statement today…
“Then again almost every economist said some form of carbon price was the best way to reduce greenhouse emissions and that was blown away by rhetoric claiming that a price with an inflationary impact of less than half a per cent was a toxic wrecking ball that would destroy jobs, strike like a cobra and usher in an era of $100 lamb roasts. ”
Where was Lenore & all the other pretend journalists while the LNP verbaling was going on.
I see no prospect of Labor winning another election until Australia is served by a quality of journalism at least equal to the analytical ability of its cartoonists
mikehilliard@1319
A case of the deranged supporting the demented. 👿
Happy for Tony to do the surf fundraiser as long as the next event is at Cheviot Beach.
lizzie@1356
Very, when she wanted to examine my prostate.
Not even the assurance she had very slender fingers helped. 😐
poroti@1358
What a splendid idea! 😆
There is more to Ross Gittins than simply being one of Australia’s more sensible writers on economics
http://media.theage.com.au/video-news/video-good-weekend/ross-gittins-a-sally-on-the-inside-6552453.html
[The Coalition leads Labor by 51% to 49% on a two party preferred basis in the sunshine state, a Galaxy poll conducted for the Courier-Mail reveals.
It is the first time the Coalition has polled ahead of Labor in Queensland for a year]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/23/new-poll-shows-abbott-government-winning-back-support-in-queensland
I mentioned this before…. Anna 2.0 is an asset for Tony Abbott.
We keep hearing that Federal Politics impacts on State Elections, well the vice versa is also true.
Anna 2.0 is Toxic
@TBA/1369
You mean they been bribed by a Federal Budget.
Okay, Sean Tisme 2.0, I’ll take your word for it. You don’t strike me as completely biased and trying to pass your partisan and ideological feelpinions as facts.
1364
I do not wish Abbott dead. We are a Democracy, we have elections to get rid of bad governments and if they break the law they can be prosecuted. Anyway, a Liberal leader who is not Abbott (Morrison or Turnbull) has a greater chance at winning the nest election. I do not want a Coalition government.
Had Holt not drowned he would have faced leadership decent because the initial gloss of his leadership had worn off. So he either would have lost the leadership or been damaged goods going into the election in 1969 or possibly even 1968 (as there was no half-Senate election due in the 1969/1970 financial year, holding an election before 1/7/1969 would not hae separated the already separate HoR and Senate ections). Then the ALP under Gough may have won in 1969 or even 1968.
[I mentioned this before…. Anna 2.0 is an asset for Tony Abbott.
We keep hearing that Federal Politics impacts on State Elections, well the vice versa is also true.
Anna 2.0 is Toxic]
Last poll gave her a net approval rating of plus 29%, so I’d doubt that.
Bemused @ 1357
[Ahh, the snipping.
Creates an air of mystery about the site leaving me wondering what was said that was so bad.]
I suspect you would have agreed with every snipped sentence, except perhaps the last one.
I wonder how many data breaches will it take for Coalition Party and Labor to realize that metadata and storing of data is not safe?
[Anna 2.0 is Toxic]
Oh yeah, and here they are setting about all sorts of horribleness.
[Health and welfare agencies have welcomed the decision by the Palaszczuk government to axe the controversial “gag clause” from Queensland’s welfare funding arrangements.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/labor-lifts-controversial-gag-clause-and-lets-health-and-welfare-groups-speak-out-20150523-gh7pqx.html%5D
jolyon
[as long as the next event is at Cheviot Beach.]
We need to facilitate a Chinese submarine.
William Bowe @1373:
Facts don’t matter to Coalition cheerleaders.
mikehilliard @1376:
Yes, those dastardly Laborites! How dare they let the bludgers speak out?! We all know that only the right caliber of people are due even basic rights or freedoms in any right-thinking country!
GG
“We didn’t need a $200 million RC to identify what needed to be done.”
That’s true vis a vis individual cases, but the Rc will certainly shed light on remedies to prevent wholesale institutional abuse.
One of its main values however will be to show how shonky and rotten to the core the Catholic Church institution is. It has behaved in the ways institutions commonly behave, only worse. It was well worth the $s just to do this.
As I pointed out earlier, it is clear to any open minded, unbigotted, objective observer that child abuse has been a traditional practice of the Catholic church from the inception of religious congregations, living and scheming together and covering up abuse AND at the same time preaching “holy purity” and eternal damnation to all, but especially to the children.
Notably this week Jesuit priest, social commentator, lawyer Fr Frank Brennan said that while he still has his faith in God, the institutional church disgusts him.
By the way did you see Greg Craven, Vice Chancellor of the Aust Catholic Uni trying to defend the indefensible … Pell and the church ….. on The Project on Thursday night.
Based on his narrow mindedness about it all and his vitriolic defence of it, I wondered if you GG are in fact Greg Craven. Or is he just your mentor.
BTW you said earlier that I agreed with you ….. no way Jose …. that is a delusional thought.
psyclaw
Great post above and totally agree with you and very happy that Fr Frank Brennan has commentated and love his comment.
Just so I have the rules completely clear.
It is ok to “infer” a desire that the soon to be former P.M. be violently mauled to death by predatory fish, but to come straight out and say you want the vile creature (Tony, not sharks) gone, permantly, removed from the surface of the planet, by any means, peaceful or otherwise, is deemed inappropriate?
WB at 1373 & TBA
No sign of Anna P being in any way toxic. All signs so far (early days) is that she’s running a steady-as-she-goes government. The local QLD Murdoch rag is working overtime to try to undermine her but she seems in no way unpopular.
BlurbUllage
You have my permission!
MTBW
Thankyou kindly,
I may just.
BlurbUllage@1382
No.
Thats the last thing we need in our politics.
But I reckon you can wish, like me that he is forced out of politics in disgrace having damaged his party, but all at the hands of voters.
Who in their right mind would want to make him any sort of martyr.
I wish no harm to Tony Abbott. In fact, I wish him a long, happy retirement, starting right now.
[“Last poll gave her a net approval rating of plus 29%, so I’d doubt that.”]
Queensland is descending into recession so I want to see the polls in 12 months from now
The premier of my state is great.
She is brimming with youthful enthusiasm, has bright and intelligent ideas, unmitigated support of her peers, and an advanced degree from the London school of economics.
If only Joseph Abacus Hockey were so clever.
The announcement today of registration increases at twice the rate of inflation in Qld is sure to put a dent in Anna’s poll numbers.
[It is ok to “infer” a desire that the soon to be former P.M. be violently mauled to death by predatory fish]
I don’t know why you’d want to. The best outcome is that voters comprehensively reject Abbott’s govt at the next election. Second only to that is his leadership is shanked by his own partyroom, and he returns to the backbench to whiteant and undermine the new leadership, leading to voters comprehensively rejecting the coalition govt at the next election.
🙂
[GG
We didn’t need a $200 million RC to identify what needed to be done.]
We certainly should not have needed one.
But we did.
And that is the real source of your pain.
BlurbUllage@1374
Even more intriguing. 😀
[Notably this week Jesuit priest, social commentator, lawyer Fr Frank Brennan said that while he still has his faith in God, the institutional church disgusts him.]
its not just the church psyclaw, it is the whole congregation.
The ballarat inquiry will hopefully uncover any role the church elders, not clergy, played in suppressing reporting of pedo priests. And it does not have to be suppession but also dissuasion feigned ingorance and failure to report.
Your typical abused child and or parent tells one of the esteemed elders in the local catholic church community of the abuse.
Elder does one of following:
Says he will handle it, such abuse is not good but will harm church and is one off, reports to priest, parishoner noted as troublemaker.
threatens parishoner, accuses of drinking problem and child as evil, threatens expulsions from church community and activites and denouncation.
does nothing as considers will be harmful to himslef if reports.
What is worrying the lay church leaders is if the RC inquiries take this direction.
It is easy enough to pass off one or two inactions from parishoners as considered them without foundations, but 10, 12 or more.
So fay we have only seen the catholic clergy investigated, named and shamed. many a lay catholic elder spending sleepness nights if they are called over their actions witrh such actions and inactions publically disclosed
BlurbUllage
Speaking of the LSE . Saw a UK article listing the toughest universities to get into over there. The LSE was 4th hardest.
So Abbott did a stunt to look like a good guy for a dementia fundraiser after he having cut money from services relating to dementia care. If people wanted a stuntman as PM ionstead of a leader they would have voted for Crusty Demons.
Silmaj,
My rego is due next week, just checked and it’s gone up by nine bucks in six months.
It didn’t occur to me to blame a 100 day old government for a decision probably made in the previous financial year, so cheers.
Very angry now.
MTBW@1381
There are many good Catholics and Fr Frank Brennan is prominent among them.
I wonder what GG makes of them?
Poroti,
Sydney Uni most likely handed our federal treasurer his undergraduate degree in a gilded frame with an attached note asking he never return.
1397
The increase come in after 1 July and is a new initiative.