BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

A flurry of post-budget opinion polls adds up to a solid increase in the Coalition’s standing, with Tony Abbott’s personal standing now rivalling his least-bad results since his short-lived post-election honeymoon.

Every pollster under the sun took the field this week, and the collective verdict from the six pollsters as aggregated in BludgerTrack is that the Coalition two-party vote has lifted 0.7% in the wake of the budget. The result on the seat projection is even more striking, with Labor now reduced to minority government territory, although the presence of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie on the hypothesised cross-bench suggests that 74 seats would still be enough for them to form government. The Coalition has had considerable bang for its post-budget buck on the seat projection, because state breakdowns (including published ones from Ipsos and Morgan, and unpublished ones from ReachTEL and Essential Research) suggest the biggest gain has been in marginal seat-rich Queensland, whereas Labor’s vote has held firm in the less strategically important state of Victoria. All told, the Coalition is credited with two gains in Queensland, and one each in New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. New results on personal ratings were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, and they offer no sign that Tony Abbott’s remarkable recovery from the depths of February is abating, his net approval rating now being no worse than it was before last year’s budget. However, they also suggest that Bill Shorten’s recent downward slide has levelled off.

Apropos of not very much, here’s a display of Newspoll’s post-budget polling results going back to the late 1980s. The scatterplot shows the strong relationship that exists between the results for personal financial impact and overall economic impact, with this year’s result indicated by the pink dot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. The NSW state government is not only popular. It has been a far better economic manager than its Labor predecessor. Plus NSW voters still have Labor politicians before the courts there.

    Isn’t the inability of the Gillard government to sell any message of economic policy striking? In 2010/11 our economy was still steaming along, though the poll on budget reaction has turned sharply down. Gillard had parked any thought of implementing economic reform (focus on education and social welfare). Neither she nor Swan had any ability to sell an economic message.

  2. Shellbell

    Surely there has been new evidence introduced vs Pell? Multiple testimonies now contradict Pell’s previous testimony not to know. I think the real problem is that attorney generals who are politicians are very afraid of letting senior church figures get charged with any crime.

  3. BTW if you read the fine print of Pell’s statement you not he has shifted from denying offering money to denying offering a bribe. So under his own recent statement he could have offered money in 1993 with the only difference being that he did not insist on victim silence in return. In the other case he now denies any recollection of it. That is not the same as saying it never happened.

  4. One more point on Pell’s statement. It no longer says he was unaware of Risedale’s abusing children. It only says he did jot and would not have moved him for that reason, because he was not the one who moved him. It is a carefully worded statement, and worth reading carefully.

    Have a good day all (except George Pell if he is reading).

  5. Pell..
    “I continue to regret the misunderstanding between us”, however earlier in his statement stated “I have no recollection of a conversation with Mr Green in 1974, more than 40 years ago”

    Just covering all possible defences in case there is evidence

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Judith Ireland says there’s no two ways about it – voters hate the both of them. But one more than the other.
    More from Judith Ireland on why some MP support but remain silent on SSM.
    This reminds me of what Florida Rep Alan Grayson said about the Republicans’ policy on health care at the time – WTTE ” Their strategy to save money if to get you to die young”.
    Pell issues denials and failure to recall. Counsel Assisting issued a shot across the bow to the lawyer representing the church Counsel Assisting the Commission, Gail Furness, SC, later reminded Mr Gray of another part of the practice guideline, which states “The Royal Commission expects that, where it is contended that deliberately false evidence has been given, or that there has been a mistake on the part of the witness on a significant issue, the grounds of such contention will be put.”
    The RC now has called for information on child sexual abuse from the Immigration Department. This may see the commission’s net cast wider.
    Meanwhile the UK Police’s Operation Hydrant has uncovered many hundreds of allegations of child sexual abuse, many by prominent people in politics and show business and in many instutions. Now what will happen?
    Nathan Tinker’s acumen on display again as the Newcastle Jets are jettisoned by the FFA.
    Bill Shorten labels the new shipping laws as “WorkChoices on the water.
    How a new Immigration law will help to run down whistleblowers.
    Labor has branded the quickly withdrawn support of an iron ire price inquiry by Abbott as another “Sir Prince Philip moment”.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Is the absence of a catastrophe in the 2015 budget a victory for Hockey?
    A close look at Hockey’s new laws for international company tax avoidance shows they lack the necessary teeth.
    The 28 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    Our duty of care to detainees in Manus Island cannot be outsourced says Greg Barnes.
    Changing voting rules without asking the electorate is undemocratic.
    “View from the Street” gets down and dirty on Abbott’s “try before you buy” proposal for job seekers. He dubs it “slavery”.
    Sharman Stone attacks Abbott’s PPL policy.
    Bowen announces Labor’s support for $2.4b of the budget’s savings.
    The Guardian examines the evolution of the “aggressive interview”.
    Andrew Leigh gets to the point of “Struggle Street”.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Alan Moir suggests Abbott might be snookered with his overseas IS exploits.

    What’s Ron Tandberg doing with Turnbull here?

    And here’s a good one from Ron.

    David Pope brings it home!

    As does Mark Knight!

    David Rowe on superannuation policy being back in the race.

  9. Labor has agreed to the $2.4 billion of Hockey spending cuts. The tax deduction stimulus is estimated at less than $2 billion. Therefore there is no actual stimulus, and the net effect of the Budget is “mildly contractionary” to quote Ross Gittins. We are being conned and the economy (that’s you and me) will be the loser.

  10. morning all


    I am hoping that in the cold light of day, GG sees fit to apologise to you for his disgusting comments yesterday afternoon. I am still at a loss to understand how anyone can continue to be an apologist for the likes of George Pell

  11. [Mr Morrison unveiled the changes to the Age Pension assets test this month with the claim they would increase payments for 170,000 retirees, cut the part-pension for 235,000 others and halt payments to a further 91,000 who currently get the part-pension.

    However, the Rice Warner research shows the savings build over time by cutting the payment of the part-pension to more Australians. While only 13 per cent of retirees lose in the first years of the policy, this increases to 19 per cent by 2025 and 40 per cent by 2055.

    A single man aged 45 who is earning $82,000 today would lose about $7700 a year from the ­tighter assets test in retirement — or about $192,000 over his retirement. A single woman aged 25 who is earning about $31,000 today would lose $2800 a year in retirement, or about $80,000 throughout her retirement.]

  12. fess

    Nothing new re GG’s positiion on the Royal Commisison and the Catholic church. But he did plumb new lows yesterday. Especially towards BK.

  13. Bowen should not have used the expression ‘carbon tax’ at the Press Club. This only encourages more quotes by Libs.

    (I had a longer explanation but Crikey ate it)

  14. A little while ago I provided a link to a petition being organised by a friend who had an online petition going. She is at risk of being forced out of her home into full nursing care because of changes to the Abbott Government’s funding.

    Now up 20,000 signatures and climbing rapidly.

    She reckons she is hopeful that she will be able to displace Boo and Pistol in the mind’s of the MSM.

  15. lizzie

    I watched Bowen’s speech on iview last night. From memory, he said that Labor believed in climafe change, that it was man made and that the best way to deal with it was to put a price on carbon. Dont recall him saying that Labor would re introduce a carbon tax

  16. lizzie

    He did not use the term ‘carbon tax’, I believe.

    He used the term ‘price on carbon’.

    Within minutes the RN was reporting it as a ‘carbon tax’.

  17. Boerwar

    Are we surprised by the msm. What really irks me is that the polls have tightened and all of a sudden the narrative changes to Shorten not being up to the task of leading.

  18. lizzie:

    The headlines use carbon tax, but when you read the reporting:

    [“We continue to believe firstly that climate change is real,” he said.

    “Secondly, that it’s caused by humankind and thirdly, the best way of dealing with it is a price on carbon. We continue to believe that, and that will be reflected in our detailed policy that we announce and seek a mandate to implement.”]

  19. From UK investigation into Child Abuse

    There are 1433 men being investigated….

    “Of these 216 are dead, 76 are politicians, both national and local figures, 43 are from the music industry, 135 from TV”

    Why is the largest group quoted from TV / entertainment industry … is there a connection between the cult of personality & delusions of grandeur / importance.
    Politicians not far behind.

  20. sceptic

    I believe child abuse occurs in any environment. it even occurs inside the family home.
    My strong view is that once upon a time it was a taboo subject and most people were complicit in keeping it hidden. Thank goodness society has progressed and it is being exposed. That can only be a good thing. Whilst institutions that tried to hide it, are concerned with the blowback in terms of reputation and monetary loss, it is also an opportunity for them to put safeguards in place and a zero tolerance policy for any such conduct in future. This can only be a good thing.

  21. [Thank goodness society has progressed and it is being exposed. ]

    Yep, same with domestic violence. Which is why I was critical of Mark Latham’s rant the other day against MPs who signed onto parliamentarians against family violence (or whatever it was).

    Do we really want to go back to the days when everyone just looked the other way or pretended everything was rosy when they saw signs of abuse? No.

  22. Bill Shorten does NOT want an inquiry into Iron Ore price fixing and has demanded Abbott rule out an inquiry.


  23. [ The Guardian examines the evolution of the “aggressive interview” ]

    They need to look at some of the BBC Hard Talk interviews – abbott & hockey etc would be torn apart in one of those.

    Saw one sometime ago when boris johnson was given a work over 🙂

  24. [22


    Nothing new re GG’s positiion on the Royal Commisison and the Catholic church. But he did plumb new lows yesterday. Especially towards BK.]

    GG comes here to brawl. He enjoys it, which basically makes him a troll.

    He trolls Green enthusiasms. He trolls on anything to do with his church and he trolls several of the female bludgers.

    He’s to be taken no more seriously than TBA, whom he closely resembles.

  25. lizzie @ 23..

    Bowen should not have used the expression ‘carbon tax’ at the Press Club.

    ..he didn’t. Bowen confirmed ALP would go to the election with a policy of using a market mechanism to: “PUT A PRICE ON CARBON..” Never used the term “carbon tax”

  26. I recall Bowen saying that Labor was commited to taking action on climate change, and that the most effective way of doing that was a price on carbon, and that Labor would be taking more detailed policies to the next election. I don’t recall the ‘t’ word being used.

    But Labor just needs to draw attention to what this Government wants to do, as outlined in the 2014 budget, and that’s just the beginning. A carbon tax would be very small beer compared to massive cuts to health and education, effectively aboloishing unemployment benefits for the under 25s (no doubt to be extended to older ages), massive increases in the cost of University degrees and the gradual dismantling of Medicare.

  27. One wonders what would happen to the LNP/Labor AS policy if, has been the case, thousands of AS in many boats took to the seas off Christmas Island?

    It is interesting to speculate that without the shield and cooperation of the Indonesians, the much touted ‘Policy Promised Delivered” – according to the ABC – of “Stopping the Boats” would be in tatters for the conservatives.

    At the end of the day thousands of these people will finish up in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

    So much for Malaysia not being a signatory to some UN convention or other.

    If Oz were that much closer, these same thousands could have headed in our direction.

    Perhaps Indonesia might lose patience with Oz and I just wonder how many orange life boats it would take?

    Mind you with the conservatives not allowing any kind of information out, the first we would know about it is when the boats started turning up in Geraldton harbour.

  28. [32

    Thank goodness society has progressed and it is being exposed.

    Yep, same with domestic violence. Which is why I was critical of Mark Latham’s rant the other day against MPs who signed onto parliamentarians against family violence (or whatever it was).]

    i agree

  29. [“One wonders what would happen to the LNP/Labor AS policy if, has been the case, thousands of AS in many boats took to the seas off Christmas Island?

    It is interesting to speculate that without the shield and cooperation of the Indonesians, the much touted ‘Policy Promised Delivered” – according to the ABC – of “Stopping the Boats” would be in tatters for the conservatives.”]

    Ahh we are playing “wot ifs”

    Wot If… Rudd didn’t dump the Pacific Solution, 50,000 illegal boatpeople didn’t show up on Rudd-Gillard-Rudds watch and 1200 didn’t drown at sea… would they still be in Government?

    Also you have a short memory.

    The Labor Party and those on the left told us endlessly that the Indonesians wouldn’t accept turn backs and therefore it was impossible to do.

    Not hard. Impossible they told us. Wrong again.

  30. 45

    There’s no wotif about the situation now. Military, paramilitary and essentially extra-judicial violence is routinely used against persons of all ages who have broken no law, persons who have made the mistake of fleeing persecution in other territories to come to this one only to face the same thing. Exemplary violence and torture have been made articles of State policy by the LNP.

  31. TBA at 45

    I’d be interested to know how you think you’d feel if you were in the position of the refugees.

  32. Like most people here I am not happy that the lying scumbag we have as a PM seems to be making a bit of a come back, but 71 seats seats is still not a very healthy situation for them. The present figures would most likely see another minority Labor government if repeated on polling day.

    As I have said before, what I would most like to see is for the Libs to just fall across the line, preferably into minority government, and then go down with their own sinking ship as the economy tanks under the destructive policies they have pursued. That’s what they deserve and what Australians need to see to finally realise that the Liberals are nothing but a lying bunch of snake oil salesmen.

    A handsome win the following election should then be just a formality for Labor and with a healthy majority they will be able to start repairing the damage these incompetent bastards have done.

  33. Just finished reading the comments from last night regarding Shorten (there sure are a lot of CTs coming out of the woodwork here on PB!) and also the SMH article BK posted. It seems that Shorten not only has the LNP and Greens worried, he also has some factional enemies in the ALP worried.

    It seems to me that the only way that he could arouse such faux concern from all these camps is if they all believe he might actually have a realistic chance of winning.

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