Every pollster under the sun took the field this week, and the collective verdict from the six pollsters as aggregated in BludgerTrack is that the Coalition two-party vote has lifted 0.7% in the wake of the budget. The result on the seat projection is even more striking, with Labor now reduced to minority government territory, although the presence of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie on the hypothesised cross-bench suggests that 74 seats would still be enough for them to form government. The Coalition has had considerable bang for its post-budget buck on the seat projection, because state breakdowns (including published ones from Ipsos and Morgan, and unpublished ones from ReachTEL and Essential Research) suggest the biggest gain has been in marginal seat-rich Queensland, whereas Labor’s vote has held firm in the less strategically important state of Victoria. All told, the Coalition is credited with two gains in Queensland, and one each in New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. New results on personal ratings were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, and they offer no sign that Tony Abbott’s remarkable recovery from the depths of February is abating, his net approval rating now being no worse than it was before last year’s budget. However, they also suggest that Bill Shorten’s recent downward slide has levelled off.
Apropos of not very much, here’s a display of Newspoll’s post-budget polling results going back to the late 1980s. The scatterplot shows the strong relationship that exists between the results for personal financial impact and overall economic impact, with this year’s result indicated by the pink dot.
@TBA/1388
QLD is descending because of LNP and vested interests.
Bemused,
Greensborough Growler recieved an appropriate catholic school bum spanking with a leather strap and is currently sulking in his dormitary room.
Simlaj,
It’s $9.
Don’t care when, how or who instigated this outrageous fee hike.
Half the price of six beers imported to Queensland from Adelaide or a small pack of Coles brand nappies.
It is a basic characteristic of organisations that once they are set up, however charitable their origin, their prime purpose becomes their own survival, even if their original goals have been achieved.
Sorry Bludgers part I can’t let this nonsense go unanswered.
TBA:
[when was the last time SHY mentioned refugees in refugee camps needing Australia’s assistance?]
[I’ll give you a clue: NEVER]
Because Australia has no obligations to refugees in camps. Nowhere in the 46 Articles of the Refugee Convention does it require a refugee or asylum seeker to go to a camp and await resettlement. Our participation in the UNHCR resettlement program is entirely voluntary. Our humanitarian obligations extend only to those refugees who are in Australia’s migration zone and seek our protection.
The great lie that you’ve been told and so willingly repeat is that boat arrivals are doing something wrong. That there are good and bad refugees. The good refugees wait in camps while the bad refugees jump the queue. Except, there is no queue and refugee camps are not holding pens for rich nations to come a chose people like pets in a pet shop. The bad refugees are criminals or illegals, except there is no law that makes arriving in Australia without authorisation or a valid visa an offence. How can someone be an “illegal” when they’ve broken no law and committed no offence?
As to what is currently happening in our region, thanks to our nope, nope, nope dope Prime Minister, we are quickly becoming the poor white trash of Asia with Malaysia and the Philippines, in particular, basically rubbing our noses in our own excrement.
I don’t know about Queensland, but if Colin Barnett is still around to lead the Liberals in WA in 2017, it will be a big surprise to me.
As there is a Federal election due before this, I would be amazed if Colin hangs on this long, despite his words to the contrary.
While the conservative press beat up the improved consumer confidence in the eastern states, such is not the case in WA.
And oh, I forgot. Liberal mouthpiece in the West, Paul Murray, tipped things on its head by writing today that the best thing Abbott has going for him is Shorten.
As our pet troll and his mates have been stating here, quite plainly, Shorten – with all his obvious imperfections – is not the man to lead Labor. Not that their comments are worth a hill of beans.
The gist of the push back is something like: “Well you might think Tony is bad, but boy, have you seen Bill?!”
When a PM has and his media cheer squad have to come out, 18 months ahead of an election, and attempt to turn attention on the LOTO one has to wonder how secure said PM and his supporters must feel.
Logically, if Shorten is so bad and has no chance of leading Labor to an election, I would have thought the approach would be to just let time and events do their work.
Methinks, the comments coming from Murray and his ilk tell us more of their real worries than their made up ones.
It was just a few weeks ago that Murray was demanding the Abbott go.
BlurbUllage@1402
In a way, GG saddens me. He simply will not face up to reality and lives in a fantasy world.
The Age Editorial
[“Looking at these people, me and my friends cried because they looked so hungry, so thin … How can we not help destitute people like this? It would be a big sin.” Muchtar Ali, Acehnese fisherman
Hear the words of this man of the sea, for they tell us much about the simplest and most rational of human responses. Mr Ali, who helped rescue more than 400 Rohingya asylum seekers on a squalid boat in the Andaman Sea, speaks a truth that transcends legalities and international politics. He has no time for the hard-line and cynical responses uttered by national leaders, who might prefer to close their eyes to boatloads of asylum seekers and desperate migrants washing around on the high seas. He sees the need. He sees people dying, and Mr Ali and his fellow fishermen know intuitively that we must respond charitably.
Now hear the words of Tony Abbott, a man who leads a nation: “Nope. Nope. Nope.”
The Prime Minister’s wall of negativity says much about this nation’s failures but far more about his government’s appalling lack of compassion and its globally embarrassing hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy. It encapsulates his government’s dispiriting response to asylum seekers: no acceptance of asylum seekers in boats, no resettlement in Australia, and no further debate will be had.]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/nope-is-not-good-enough-mr-abbott-20150522-gh7hne.html
lizzie
A human trait ,group loyalty. A handy survival feature evolution has hard wired in . Some down sides to it of course.
A long piece on Lomborg.
http://www.theage.com.au/good-weekend/too-hot-to-handle-20150522-gh5zwx
poroti
Dunno. I think there’s a selfish aspect when charities or corporations are involved.
Alan Shore.
Good try, but when TBA is faced with a sensible rebuttal of his nonsense, he vanishes like a thief in the night. Perhaps he’s too scared too face the truth?
#1173
And yet here you are, bothering to make an effort to comment. Why is that so?
You forgot to quote the whole line? That’s a surprise. Must be something in there that really rings true… I wonder which part that would be.
TBA @1388:
[Queensland is descending into recession so I want to see the polls in 12 months from now]
1. Nice shifting of the goalposts, TBA.
2. Australia’s unlikely to be far behind if Qld goes into recession, which all indicators are it did shortly before the ALP won Government. Think on how unpopular Abbott will become if he officially becomes the PM who ended Australia’s 23 years without recessions.
lizzie
Oh indeed there is selfishness involved in the mix.
BlurbUllage @1399:
[Sydney Uni most likely handed our federal treasurer his undergraduate degree in a gilded frame with an attached note asking he never return.]
Wait, Hockey studied economics? His policies and approach are so wildly inconsistent that I can’t imagine he understands the first thing about any school of economic thought other than crank-ism.
Lizzie @1408:
Tony Abbott is a pustulent sore on the Australian body politic. Sadly, the indications are that the racists, bogans and slobs among the Australian population are lapping his Laura Norder bulldust with a spoon, particularly as it’s applied to people with brown skin.
As time goes by and I watch the cosseting his Government is receiving from the media – the softball questions, the refusal to look beneath the surface froth, the “he-said she-said” approach – the more I’m convinced that he’s actually likely to get re-elected.
Lizzie
We many here might be concerned about Fortress Australia (Age editorial) as far as AS, refugees – call them what you will – but sad to say, our fellow citizens – at least enough of them, and on both sides of the fence, can cope with ‘out of sight, out of mind’.
While many of us here might be upset about what is happening currently to the boat loads from the north, the fact is that both Labor and Liberal governments – carrying out what they perceive to be the wishes of the majority of the Oz voting public are happy with ‘Nope, Nope and Nope’.
The conservatives have taken the kudos for “stopping the boats” but Labor governments over time have established detention camps both here and in the boundaries of our poorer neighbours to choke off this stream of people.
It is my view that Rudd’s categorical refusal to allow AS to settle here and process them off shore was as potent a step as the finding of orange life boats to ferry the AS back to Indonesia.
The LNP are more than happy to play hard ball on this and blame Labor for all else.
The words of our National Anthem should stick in the throats of many – especially the bits about “boundless” and “share”.
Bemused,
This particular institution, amongst less notable others is at long last having its own sense of morality smashed to to pieces and straight into its face.
For me and mine, and as the committed atheist son of a pair of atheist people, who were themselves the children of secretly atheist ancestors, long before it was socially acceptable to be such,…
And through an odd twist of circumstance via which I became, as just a very little child, still younger than my own oldest, athiest son, a victim of the Catholic Church, I hold a former Prime Minister in the highest regard, for all that she has done, in exposing this abomination.
It will never, ever happen again in my country.
Peace.
1405
Alan Shore
Exactly right, Alan
Mat@1417
I would hardly describe today’s editorial in the Age as being Abbott friendly. But then, who reads the Age these days, or any other papers for that matter?
Matt and Tricot
What depresses me is that we have descended into a culture that doesn’t allow for any sensible, adult consideration of anything. Sean Kelly has talked around it in this article: http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2015/05/23/libs-alp-need-courage-under-ire-face-opinion-polls/14323032001911#.VWAtN2OJicw
Even on this blog, any statement made while we are discussing a new subject is then attacked as being one’s final opinion, rather than a step towards understanding (not all bludgers take this attitude, I know).
Tricot
I confess (!) I read the Age every day (I have for all of my adult life). I have found it becoming more and more critical of the Coalition government lately, for which I am thankful.
[poroti
Posted Saturday, May 23, 2015 at 2:08 pm | Permalink
bemused
Perhaps William could set up a separate site for the “snips” , “Poll bludger the Sealed Section”]
The Foreskin Bin?
[As our pet troll and his mates have been stating here, quite plainly, Shorten – with all his obvious imperfections – is not the man to lead Labor. Not that their comments are worth a hill of beans.
The gist of the push back is something like: “Well you might think Tony is bad, but boy, have you seen Bill?!”
When a PM has and his media cheer squad have to come out, 18 months ahead of an election, and attempt to turn attention on the LOTO one has to wonder how secure said PM and his supporters must feel.
Logically, if Shorten is so bad and has no chance of leading Labor to an election, I would have thought the approach would be to just let time and events do their work.
Methinks, the comments coming from Murray and his ilk tell us more of their real worries than their made up ones.]
They might figure that more leadershit for Labor, no matter how bogus, is an advantage to the Coalition, regardless of whom is leader.
The timing of this latest attempt to whip it up ties in with the upcoming ABC series on Labor’s RGR period.
Probably they are just trying to milk it for all they can, and are not necessarily aiming to bring Shorten down specifically, though they will do so if they can.
I don’t think Hockey studied Economics, I thought he studied Law, Tony apparently studied economics.
Alan Shore
If it is a random sort of anarchy out there, as you seem to be arguing, then Australia should feel free to pick its preferred bit of the anarchy.
BTW, has Di Natale OR SHY come out with a bitter denunciation of those serial ethnic cleansers: the Burmese Buddhists at both regional and national government level?
[…is an advantage to the Coalition, regardless of whom is leader.]
…is Labor’s leader.
Poor old Tories: targeting Shorten when the elephants in the room are Abbott and Hockey.
Poor old Greens: targeting Shorten when the mouse in the room is Di Natale.
lizzie
[Even on this blog, any statement made while we are discussing a new subject is then attacked as being one’s final opinion, rather than a step towards understanding.}
wRONg again!
The peculiar thing about ‘Fortress Australia’ is that the fear and terror is more commensurate with ‘Sinking Lifeboat Australia’.
[It is ok to “infer” a desire that the soon to be former P.M. be violently mauled to death by predatory fish, but to come straight out and say you want the vile creature (Tony, not sharks) gone, permantly, removed from the surface of the planet, by any means, peaceful or otherwise, is deemed inappropriate?]
Some great white attacks aren’t fatal.
[1414
Matt
TBA @1388:
Queensland is descending into recession so I want to see the polls in 12 months from now
1. Nice shifting of the goalposts, TBA.
2. Australia’s unlikely to be far behind if Qld goes into recession, which all indicators are it did shortly before the ALP won Government. Think on how unpopular Abbott will become if he officially becomes the PM who ended Australia’s 23 years without recessions.]
It’s quite likely the LNP will induce a recession. Their tax policies, which are slicing an extra ration from middle-lower income households, will be reducing real disposable incomes across the economy, compounding the problems caused by declining terms of trade. As well, they have taken a series of measures to reduce social transfers, flows that have their biggest effect on the same households now paying more income tax.
This pressure on households has to be considered against other factors which are also have contractionary effects – very weak private and public capital formation, weak public sector consumption, likely contraction in net exports. The RBA has been trying to stimulate private demand. The actions of the LNP will likely be doing the exact opposite.
If we do slip into recession, it will be entirely because the LNP have misjudged the economy.
Hows the Gay Marriage referendum going?
Abbott was talking about the surf…
[“Anyway I got out, thank God, and managed to get back in without too much embarrassment. I stood up. I was tempted to give it away a couple of times but it’s the old story, if you stay out eventually there will be a lull in the surf, that’s when you can normally get out.”
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-braves-rough-surf-for-dementia-fundraiser-20150523-gh819v.html ]
For those that want to see the count in the Irish Referendums
http://www.irishtimes.com
@joeobrien24: “Strong indication” of historic Irish Same Sex Marriage vote expected within an hour or so .. http://t.co/iqKtHTuAmJ
@CloverMoore: Inspiring to see Ireland’s march towards equality. Let’s hope live wins the day and Australia follows next. #IrelandVoteYes
Boerwar
Chuckles.
[Chinese officials say a remarkable improvement in Beijing’s air quality is due to good policy.
The Chinese capital has become infamous for its heavy smog, which is thought to lead to widespread illness and discomfort.
But residents have been enjoying blue skies this year.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-23/beijing-improved-air-quality-result-of-good-policy-say-officials/6492350
Reports from the Dublin Showgrounds tallyroom of a massive yes vote in the city but the first small boxes in Wicklow are solidly no. The division between rural and urban Ireland on this question will be interesting. However as over half the population lives in the Dublin area I think we can expect a solid yes vote.
The other question being asked today is if the age of presidential candidates should be reduced to 21. An RTE spokesperson has evidently said the broadcaster had not conducted a debate on this because they “couldn’t find two people who give a shit”. Disciplinary action is expected
Just a bit of fun.
[You can drive a PEN15, but VA61ANA is not allowed out of the garage. BL03 JOB is a no-no, but it’s yes to ORG45M. JE55US and AL14LAH are banned, but last week KR15HNA was sold for £233,000.
The DVLA has revealed its entire list of “suppressed” car number plates, all banned from Britain’s streets. They range from the puerile to the obscene, but also include numerous religious or homophobic words – and the list runs to 46 pages (see the PDF below). The list emerged after a man from the Midlands, surname Islam, applied to the DVLA for an 15LAM plate but was told that the combination was “inappropriate”.
The 2015 registration year has proved particularly tricky for censors at the DVLA, who have suppressed a large number of potential plates, including P15 OFF, PR15 SON, PU15 SSY, SH15 TTY, UP15 BUM and WA15 TED.]
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/may/22/dvla-bans-bl03-job-but-allows-an-org45m
A yes vote will be an indication of how low the stocks of the Catholic Church in Ireland have fallen.
It is less than 30 years since it took 2 referenda to legalise civil divorce and the highly restrictive abortion laws are the result of 4 convoluted referenda results.
Perhaps easier this way?
P15 OFF, PR15 SON, PU15 SSY, SH15 TTY, UP15 BUM and WA15 TEDOakeshott Country
[less than 30 years since it took 2 referenda to legalise civil divorce and the highly restrictive abortion laws are the result of 4 convoluted referenda results.]
That really does show what a seismic shift there has been.
What can we do?
[Amid all the Islamic State’s atrocities — its massacres of civilians, its beheading of hostages, its pillaging of antiquities — the systematic violence the jihadists have carried out against countless enslaved women and girls never fails to shock. For months now, we’ve heard appalling testimony from women who escaped the Islamic State’s clutches, many of whom endured rape and other hideous acts of violence.]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/05/22/islamic-state-burned-a-woman-alive-for-not-engaging-in-an-extreme-sex-act-u-n-official-says/?tid=pm_pop_b
Early voting indicates a landslide yes vote of about 75% in the Irish referendum on marriage equality..
@IrishTimes: BREAKING: Returning officer says early count at Dublin North Central shows 65-70% Yes. #MarRef http://t.co/Iivmre9uoy http://t.co/9B4rdECLxk
guytaur
A pic of the tally board for Dublin
Dee
They are past reasoning. Pure evil destruction.
It is said that they kill people (men and women) rather than let them go back to their country. For this reason I think Abbott is wrong to forbid them to come back here. If they manage to escape, they have not been brainwashed.