BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

Aggregation of poll results continues to record a slow improvement in the Coalition’s position on voting intention, and a much quicker one for Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten on leadership ratings.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate swings back to Labor this week, following an improved but still below par result from Newspoll, and softer results for them from Morgan and Essential Research. Together with the previous week’s strong result for Labor from ReachTEL washing out of the system, the result is a 0.7% move to the Coalition on two-party preferred and an improvement of three on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. With the further addition of Newspoll numbers to the leadership ratings, there’s still no let-up of the emphatic trend in favour of Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten since immediately after the Liberal Party spill vote at the beginning of February, with Abbott now being credited with the lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since October.

Electoral reform news:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “speculation is rising that the government will attempt to pass measures that would effectively sign the death warrant for micro parties immediately before calling the next election” (while further speculation reported by Laurie Oakes says that election may be rather soon). However, the task of achieving that is said to be complicated by splits in both Labor and the Greens. Among those in the Labor camp raising concerns are Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy, Sam Dastyari and “a number of unions”, who reportedly consider that micro-parties are mostly winning seats at the expense of the Coalition, and believe the proposal to abolish group voting tickets through a move to optional preferential voting would advantage the Greens (although Gary Gray and Alan Griffin, both Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, stand by the committee’s recommendation to that effect). The Greens nonetheless appear divided on both the reform’s likely impact on their prospects, and whether that should be their primary objective in any case. It is said the reform could starve the Greens of preferences required to win seats in Queensland (understandably), South Australia (understandably only for as long as Nick Xenophon’s on the scene) and Western Australia (not understandably, as far as I can see). At the same time, there is concern about how the party membership would react if the party cut a deal with the Coalition, which might involve a compromise of maintaining group voting tickets but imposing a 4% primary vote threshold.

• Daniel McCullogh of the Launceston Examiner reports that Labor in Tasmania is grumbling about the state’s quirky Legislative Council system, in which the chamber’s 15 electoral districts face election over a staggered six-year cycle. Labor complains the low-key campaigns result in depressed turnout and an unfair advantage to incumbents. Labor is also unhappy about the tight $15,000 spending caps for Legislative Council elections.

Preselection news:

• Sharyn O’Neil of the Morning Bulletin reports that Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor, will again seek Labor preselection in Capricornia, the central Queensland seat where he narrowly failed in a bid to succeed retiring party colleague Kirsten Livermore. The seat has since been held for the Liberal National Party by Michelle Landry, who won the seat by a margin of 0.8%. The report also says Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow had been planning to nominate, but is no longer.

• Stephen Smiley from the ABC reports it is generally expected Christine Milne’s resignation as Greens leader yesterday is to be followed in the not too distant future by retirement from the Senate. The leading candidate to fill her vacancy would appear to be Nick McKim, who holds a state seat for Franklin and was the party’s state leader until after the March 2014 election. The best-placed Greens candidate to win McKim’s state seat from recounting of last year’s election looks to be Huon Valley councillor Rosalie Woodruff.

• Labor has preselected Mike Kelly to attempt to recover the seat of Eden-Monaro which he narrowly lost to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy by a margin of 4.8% in 2013, a result that retained the seat’s bellwether status going back to 1972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,436 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 49
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  2. They’re a loudmouthed rump willing to be co-opted into Coalition/Murdoch campaigns against their own colleagues. Witness the reaction to Plibersek over SSM recently.

    Oh, I agree. They are a traitorous mob of self-serving rodents. Labor’s best course would be to go through the short term pain of breaking their power once and for all, so that it can become the 21st century social democratic party it should be.

    The most ridiculous part is that I know many people in the union movement, and they universally despite these people. Their continued existence is a structural issue, not a result of their popularity with the masses.

  4. Socrates@147

    Bemused 103

    Thanks I didn’t know that about earlier removal of Sydney rail crossings. Anyway when I started working in transport in the early 1980s there was an organised program to get rid of those remaining in both Sydney and Brisbane. I will never understand why Melbourne took so long to do the same thing.

    Yes, Melbourne’s record on this is just appalling.

    Much more funding should have come out of the road budget to get rid of them, but I think it was largely the railway budget that has been paying.

    Also, Victoria paid susso workers to build the Great Ocean Road, while NSW used them to get rid of level crossings.

  5. We’ve got 5 years

    [If current trends continue, and we go on building high-carbon energy generation, then by 2015 at least 90% of the available “carbon budget” will be swallowed up by our energy and industrial infrastructure. By 2017, there will be no room for manoeuvre at all – the whole of the carbon budget will be spoken for, according to the IEA’s calculations.]

    But nevemind, thats stil IN THE FUTURE

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change

  7. Taking the headline on this thread, the state of play in the polls is 51.7 : 48.3 for Labor. That’s not a big gap. It is well in line with the normal mid term unpopularity of any government. Further, the ALP and Greens seem to do better in polls than in actual elections, by and large. If we add to this a benign budget, one already being actively pushed by the Murdocracy before it’s even delivered, plus media bias, the gap is eminently bridgeable.

    I think that an early election is well and truly on the cards if the Budget is well recieved, or even if it’s merely boring.

  8. Does anyone know who is the Chair of the Press Club today? Sophie someone. Patently not in a happy place and seems very anti-Greens.

  9. [PB

    Except that a majority of the country as a whole also holds those views, so if you lost a few diehards over the issue, you would more than make up for it by attracting moderates who are sick of Kevin Andrews and Corey Bernardi telling them where they are allowed to stick their genitalia.]

    It is not a symmetrical trade-off. Labor can lose some social conservatives to the Coalition, which costs the centre-left votes. Or they can lose some progressives to the Greens, which doesn’t cost the centre-left votes.

    Worst case scenario is Labor manage to do both, which is not beyond their talents.

    Besides, I doubt there are many genuine moderates still voting for this version of the Coalition.

  10. poroti

    Yes you are right but for all the rubbish in the run up to the broadcast I found it very interesting.

    We all need to count our blessings that we are able to choose where we live while others do not.

    The waiting list for NSW housing is just so long that many will die before they get there.

    Many who apply have serious health and psychiatric issues and there but for the grace of God go I.

  11. Big jump in SA unemployment.

    I have been hearing from some in multidis Engineering firms that through the last 3 years of shedding jobs, many still employed are now very busy. All of them were put on new employment conditions 5 years ago ish and paid a flat yearly salary, no OT.

    All that unpaid work… good for some.

    Socrates, any anecdotal confirmation or repudiation?

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australias-unemployment-rate-jumps-to-71-per-cent/story-fni6uo1m-1227342407773

  13. Coalition speculation about an early election indicates they are completely out of ideas. Not surprising as there only idea before being elected was to fix everything by not being Labor. How’s that working out for them?

  17. How can Bill Shortens ALP possibly justify going in to bat for those wealthy individuals drawing the age pension ??

  18. Must admit that I don’t understand how Bludgertrack could jump by .7 to the LNP for 48.3, when the past our polls have been 54, 53, 53 and 52 to Labor.

  20. Simon Katich

    I know a number of engineers in SA, and the situation is still absolutely dire. Santos is the biggest employer in an engineering field (and possible overall) and they are still going through round after round of layoffs. Several I know have moved to Melbourne in recent years just to have a job.

    Construction is slow here, and petroleum engineering has completely died.

  21. So if the budget tanks Hockey, not Abbott has to go and the Libs are considering an early election despite trailing in the polls for over a year.

    Genius!!!

  22. sohar
    It’s the smoothing taking into account a longer period of time during which the trend is down for Labor.

  23. [ I’m slightly mystified at the amnesia of those who appear to have forgotten this… anyone even vaguely progressive should be deeply angry at Labor, and its factions, for allowing these psychos into power.
    ]

    There was this little thing called and election. Australians got to vote, we chose this government and unless you only believe in democracy when you win, you shouldn’t be deeply angry at anyone.

    If you are really trying to analyse why Australia chose a clearly dishonest stuntman, rather than the Labor alternative your analysis is pretty shallow.

    Firstly there is a clear presencent. Howard was a clearly dishonest fellow (less stunts yes, more intelligent yes, better political instincts yes but still very similar) who got to sit on top of a decade of growth and wealth, almost all of which was the gift of hawke – Keating, and let’s be honest it was a very right wing gift.

    Abbott promised us a return to the glory days of Howard and promised he could deliver. This was a pretty compelling case on its own for those superficially inclined.

    The biggest factor in this was the GFC. Not liberals, not Labor not Rudd, not even the greens.

    The biggest labor mistake was getting rid of Rudd the stupidest possible way. (I’m of the school that making Rudd the leader in the first place was the original mistake from which the others followed, but having made that mistake getting rid of him in the most clumsy dishonest and ugly way was the biggest).

    The next biggest factor was the CPRS / carbon price / carbon tax debacle. Liberal / labor and greens were all culpable in that fiasco but IMHO the greens did the two most diabolically stupid things in the fiasco. In joining with abbott and opposing the cprs they smashed to less than 50% public support for it and then having lost the public they by their own claim forced an unpopular carbon price on Gillard.

    Lots of other little factors helped Tony, no Malaysian solution, promising a budget surplus, the hung parliament etc etc.

    To summarize I think the most important factors were Howard’s luck with Keatings economy and Rudds bad luck with the GFC. But with lots of other problems of multiple causes.

  24. What’s being missed with this Hockey budget stuff is that no matter how badly they stuff up nothing this government does is ever a failure, either in their own eyes or in the eyes of the media.

  27. Bemused

    If the roads lobby in Melbourne is anything like the one in WA that tried to block our public transport rail projects I suspect their approach to getting rid of rail crossings would be to close the rail lines.

  28. WeWantPaul, with respect, you’re exactly the type of person I’m talking about. Your reinvention of history borders on delusional.

    You must not remember the months and months of daily leadershit which Labor managed to generate for itself. No government could survive that.

    The GFC was a net positive for Labor insofar as it allowed Labor to demonstrate sound economic credentials. Unfortunately no-one could talk about it without being drowned out by the endless coverage of Labor’s self-inflicted wounds.

    You might also have forgotten Labor’s spectacular failure to recognise and manage the hostile media, instead preferring to try to be best mates with Murdoch as he kicked the crap out of them. Ditto the big miners, ditto big business. Labor appeared to have the misguided belief that these powerful interests would somehow stop being mean if the party just sucked up to them enough. Not surprisingly, they just accepted the handouts on offer and then resumed hostilities.

    And this is exactly the type of crap I would expect from someone pretending Labor didn’t catstrophically stuff up the political side of government:

    There was this little thing called and election. Australians got to vote, we chose this government and unless you only believe in democracy when you win, you shouldn’t be deeply angry at anyone.

    This condescending rubbish confirms that you are unable or unwilling to see the point being made.

    The tragedy is that the policy side of government was excellent. If the election had been determined by policy and economic issues, as you claim, then Labor would have romped it in.

  29. Also, if things actually have flattened out then this week’s point on the graph will be adjusted up as it takes in future samples.

  30. rossmcg@177

    Bemused

    If the roads lobby in Melbourne is anything like the one in WA that tried to block our public transport rail projects I suspect their approach to getting rid of rail crossings would be to close the rail lines.

    The RACV has become much more nuanced and accepts that its members drive but also use public transport, walk and ride bicycles. This is an encouraging development.

    All of these things have their place and some people are in occupations where they need their vehicles and must drive. Their interests are best served by getting those who don’t need their vehicles off the roads. This fairly obvious concept seems to have caught on.

  32. [I think that an early election is well and truly on the cards if the Budget is well recieved, or even if it’s merely boring.]

    All good and well Steve, but calling an election a year early isn’t a politically neutral thing to do. To coherently frame the need for an early election is complicated.

    Abbott himself said it his intention to run full term, because he knows playing silly buggers with the election date can be damaging. Sure “intention” is a bit slippery, because he wants to spook the senate and his backbench.

    Like I said, I hope I’m wrong, but the speculation needs to fill in many blanks. If it’s just because they get a good poll then why wouldn’t they think they could get a good poll next year? (which is what the electorate will think).

  33. Ignoring some of the emotional rhetoric, I hink the basis of WWP’s history is not really all that different to PB’s.

    Other than the probably significant sticking point of how to apportion blame between Labor and the Greens, most of the other points only require a little adjustment up or down to result in a different scenario.

  34. Crikey’s gossip.

    I wonder in what century men will be ‘allowed’ by convention to discard the tie.

    [The new Greens leader’s Italian fashion sense has already been commented on, with waistcoat Wednesdays being widely approved. While Ms Tips is quite a fan of the three-piece suit, we noticed yesterday that Di Natale can often be sighted in the Senate chamber in an open-collared shirt without a tie. It’s very cosmopolitan, but it hasn’t always gone down well with constituents, who have been known to call his electorate office and complain about the lack of neckwear. ]

  35. While Bill Shortens ALP dithers away gazing at its navel deciding who it is and what it stands for, Richard DiNatale’s Greens Party are wasting no time claiming ownership of the progressive side of politics.

  36. poroti

    [Oh joy ,unemployment rate nudges up to 6.2%]

    When I worked out that I could just wait for my super to kick in and quit full-time work I had a couple of goes at being a ‘New start’ bludger.

    The first effort saw me interviewed on a Tuesday (red shirt with sleeves and collar and light trackies on) and being then asked on Wednesday if starting Thursday was possible.

    Second attempt nearly the same.

    Staying at Home a big attraction.

    My assault on social security not a success.

  37. Rex @ 185
    Then we’re going to have an easy time counting the number of progressives in Australia at any moment just by watching the Greens polling go up and down ;).

  39. More crap from the SMH / MSM

    “Some members insist that Senator Di Natale, and Senators Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam – who were elected co-deputy leaders, were tipped off ahead of time by Senator Milne to spoil Mr Bandt’s chances.”

    So if James Massola is correct the preferred choice for Greens leader would have been Brandt & risk selecting a leader that could lose seat at an election & leave the Greens leaderless
    How much do jurors get paid to turn off their brains?

  41. Every time I read Rex’s concern trolling, I recall he was also arrogantly promoting Paul Howes as the ideal Labor leader (before switching to Mark Dreyfus) and pines a return to the days of leadership being decided behind closed doors. He’s no progressive, just an attention-seeker.

    However, putting that song and dance aside, Patrick Bateman has made some valid CONSTRUCTIVE criticisms of the ALP and should be heard out. Even if you disagree with them, he is still doing a service by highlighting them. The party needs constructive criticism more than it needs misguided keyboard warriors attempting to defend it with kneejerk defensiveness and heckling.

  42. Bemused

    ‘Railway crossings’ (I have some history with country ones).

    Is that atrocious one at Edithvale still there?

  45. One interesting thing to watch in the coming budget will be IF the Govt commits any funds to the new submarine project. You would think they would have to if they are talking a decision in 2016??

    And that will focus a lot of attention on where the coin is to be spent particularly if they want to shore up there vote in the shipbuilding states of SA / Vic / NSW. Particularly SA.

    Interesting concept that has been floated is an interim build program. Buy 4 subs of a current design where 1st of class has already been built in the parent nation (and that have also been build OS for other users ). Build those 3-4 in SA starting in the next couple of years as a low risk project that gives us something to compensate for any “capability gap” as the Collins boats are retired and keeps the local build capability alive.

    Then, take the next class from the same design house. Think buying Type 214’s from Thysen Krupp and then longer term their proposed Type 218. Same could be applied to French, Japanese manufacturers. Bit more difficult for the Swedes as their A26 hasn’t been built yet but not impossible.

    Dont think the Libs are smart enough to go for this, but will be interesting to see what they have budgeted.

  46. [sohar
    Posted Thursday, May 7, 2015 at 1:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Must admit that I don’t understand how Bludgertrack could jump by .7 to the LNP for 48.3, when the past our polls have been 54, 53, 53 and 52 to Labor.    ]

    sohar

    Kevin Bonham, who like William is a skilled psephologist, has his equivalent to Bludgertrack on 52.3. Also, my understanding is that both of them have an MOE of about 1%.

    That said, William would have heavily discounted the Morgan poll down from 53% to about 51.3 for its Labor bias and I think he discounts Essential as well.

  48. [You must not remember the months and months of daily leadershit which Labor managed to generate for itself. No government could survive that.]

    I’ve skipped the personal abuse I assume was to either boost your arguments or distract from mine.

    This first claim is easy to deal with. That Rudd would be a problem was predictable. But that goes to the cause (his removal) not the fruits of that mistakes. Also Rudd would not have mattered if Gillard had won easily and polled well as a PM in control of the HoR. I think she could have polled well but for minority government. Again it is a consequence of a weak government not a separate cause.

    [The GFC was a net positive for Labor insofar as it allowed Labor to demonstrate sound economic credentials. Unfortunately no-one could talk about it without being drowned out by the endless coverage of Labor’s self-inflicted wounds.]

    The GFC was made worse by the subsequent surplus fiasco but it was never a positive, and it was inantely always going to be difficult. For it to have been positive a voter had to believe both that they would have been much worse off from the GFC and that the spending is what saved them. Few australians believed either. Swan promising surplus and delivering deficit told them they were right about Swan being useless. If Swan was useless did he save us from the GFC or waste billions of dollars on school halls? Even the demigod Keating couldn’t convince people that lower living standards were a good thing – Swan / Rudd / Gillard didn’t stand a chance.

    [And this is exactly the type of crap I would expect from someone pretending Labor didn’t catstrophically stuff up the political side of government:]

    Well no I’ve been clear they did stuffup the political side of government and identified the stuffups that I see as central causation from the others I see as a consequence of those central stuffus. You only have to ask how many elections the ALP won clearly in its own right after 2007 to know they failed politically both terms.

    I pay much less attention than some to the varnish / spin / superficial media stuff.

    People largely see through the varnish to what they care about and that is their own kitchen table and what is on. You go back to the light on the hill speech, the second last paragraph, the GFC made people less comfortable and with less feeling of security for their children, they did not get nearly enough comfort from the government that if a depression came there will be the work. Because of the Rudd fiasco and the subsequent minority government they did not have a voice that could convince people that the government was striving its hardest to do its best. Yes a different time, a different place a vastly different economy, but in that period, I submit for the reasons I’ve identified the labor governments from 2007 – Abbotts failed a test it had laid down for itself by one of its greats in 1949.

    Much had changed since June of 1949 but I put it to you there is not a single observation in that second last paragraph, indeed the whole speech, that does not ring true still.

    I have expressed here a number of times my admiration for mumble and his theories. I have also tried to identify a missing variable, an economic variable. Chiefly in that speech saw the Labour movement as about ‘bringing something better to the people, better standards of living, greater happiness …

    Through the GFC and the Rudd fiasco the labor governments could not do this. Howard for years had based on Keating’s work. It wasn’t entirely unreasonable, even though it was entirely wrong, for Australia to reach for Abbott as it did in the forlorn and now dashed hope he could do for us what it had seemed Howard and Costello did for us.

  49. Thanks Carey!

    Contrary to what it may appear from some of my posts, I want nothing more than a strong and progressive ALP which accurately reflects what I believe to be the largely progressive views of a plurality of ordinary Australians. I believe there is a golden opportunity for Labor to seize issues such as gay marriage, privacy, climate change and voluntary euthanasia and own them.

    If they do not, in due course the Liberals will figure out which way the wind is blowing and take control of them. I suspect if Turnbull was leader the Libs would already have turned gay marriage into a libertarian issue about people being free to marry whoever they want without the oppressive state interfering.

  50. lizzie@184

    Crikey’s gossip.

    I wonder in what century men will be ‘allowed’ by convention to discard the tie.

    The new Greens leader’s Italian fashion sense has already been commented on, with waistcoat Wednesdays being widely approved. While Ms Tips is quite a fan of the three-piece suit, we noticed yesterday that Di Natale can often be sighted in the Senate chamber in an open-collared shirt without a tie. It’s very cosmopolitan, but it hasn’t always gone down well with constituents, who have been known to call his electorate office and complain about the lack of neckwear.

    Didn’t Don Dunstan get away with it?

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