BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

Aggregation of poll results continues to record a slow improvement in the Coalition’s position on voting intention, and a much quicker one for Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten on leadership ratings.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate swings back to Labor this week, following an improved but still below par result from Newspoll, and softer results for them from Morgan and Essential Research. Together with the previous week’s strong result for Labor from ReachTEL washing out of the system, the result is a 0.7% move to the Coalition on two-party preferred and an improvement of three on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. With the further addition of Newspoll numbers to the leadership ratings, there’s still no let-up of the emphatic trend in favour of Tony Abbott relative to Bill Shorten since immediately after the Liberal Party spill vote at the beginning of February, with Abbott now being credited with the lead on preferred prime minister for the first time since October.

Electoral reform news:

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “speculation is rising that the government will attempt to pass measures that would effectively sign the death warrant for micro parties immediately before calling the next election” (while further speculation reported by Laurie Oakes says that election may be rather soon). However, the task of achieving that is said to be complicated by splits in both Labor and the Greens. Among those in the Labor camp raising concerns are Penny Wong, Stephen Conroy, Sam Dastyari and “a number of unions”, who reportedly consider that micro-parties are mostly winning seats at the expense of the Coalition, and believe the proposal to abolish group voting tickets through a move to optional preferential voting would advantage the Greens (although Gary Gray and Alan Griffin, both Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, stand by the committee’s recommendation to that effect). The Greens nonetheless appear divided on both the reform’s likely impact on their prospects, and whether that should be their primary objective in any case. It is said the reform could starve the Greens of preferences required to win seats in Queensland (understandably), South Australia (understandably only for as long as Nick Xenophon’s on the scene) and Western Australia (not understandably, as far as I can see). At the same time, there is concern about how the party membership would react if the party cut a deal with the Coalition, which might involve a compromise of maintaining group voting tickets but imposing a 4% primary vote threshold.

• Daniel McCullogh of the Launceston Examiner reports that Labor in Tasmania is grumbling about the state’s quirky Legislative Council system, in which the chamber’s 15 electoral districts face election over a staggered six-year cycle. Labor complains the low-key campaigns result in depressed turnout and an unfair advantage to incumbents. Labor is also unhappy about the tight $15,000 spending caps for Legislative Council elections.

Preselection news:

• Sharyn O’Neil of the Morning Bulletin reports that Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor, will again seek Labor preselection in Capricornia, the central Queensland seat where he narrowly failed in a bid to succeed retiring party colleague Kirsten Livermore. The seat has since been held for the Liberal National Party by Michelle Landry, who won the seat by a margin of 0.8%. The report also says Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow had been planning to nominate, but is no longer.

• Stephen Smiley from the ABC reports it is generally expected Christine Milne’s resignation as Greens leader yesterday is to be followed in the not too distant future by retirement from the Senate. The leading candidate to fill her vacancy would appear to be Nick McKim, who holds a state seat for Franklin and was the party’s state leader until after the March 2014 election. The best-placed Greens candidate to win McKim’s state seat from recounting of last year’s election looks to be Huon Valley councillor Rosalie Woodruff.

• Labor has preselected Mike Kelly to attempt to recover the seat of Eden-Monaro which he narrowly lost to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy by a margin of 4.8% in 2013, a result that retained the seat’s bellwether status going back to 1972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,436 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. Regarding the early election speculation reported by Laurie Oakes in William’s header, I’m not convinced.

    Firstly, I would quite like it, and I don’t generally like what’s good for the LNP 🙂

    But my main question is, how do they frame it? Australians are suspicious of early elections, and it will be hard to shake the idea that they are going before things get worse. It gets a bit hard to run the “who do you trust” meme that benefits incumbents.

    And if they try to whip up the “Labor” dysfunction meme, they are just as likely to remind everyone of their own problems in government (too long to list).

    Right now I think the next election is 50-50, which is remarkable compared to how I felt on election night, but if they go early they will have to frame it with a coherence they have yet to display since gaining government.

  3. Socrates@26

    Victoria

    Yes the level crossings were mostly taken out in Sydney and Brisbane back in the 80s. A few have been done here in Adelaide too, and in each case it was a big improvement. There is also a large safety benefit. There was a terrible accident here at a level crossing in Salisbury.

    The last big one to go in Sydney was Woodville Rd Villawood back in 1972.

    Sydney was getting rid of them long before the 80s and I have heard that the program to get rid of them goes as far back as the ’20s or ’30s with quite a few done during the depression by susso workers.

    They were certainly a rarity by the ’60s and you would struggle to find any now although there are a couple in very obscure locations.

  4. Socrates@29

    Poroti

    I can understand the parade in the 70 years context, but why all the new weapons? To me that says “rearming”.

    Do you ask the Americans the same question? They spend far more on their military.

  8. rossmcg

    [The fact that he also happens to be catholic is probably a coincidence]

    Yes but I lived in the days of the DLP throwing their weight around and bullying Catholics.

  10. [“@ABCNews24: Abbott: I’ve spoken to Joe Hockey about this story, it’s a complete invention.
    #Budget2015 #auspol”]

    Oh poor Joe, there’s the official denial.

  11. [“Abbott still promoting East West link”

    LOL. Live in the now, Tones!]

    To be fair, 2014 is remarkably modern compared to his general worldview.

  12. [To be fair, 2014 is remarkably modern compared to his general worldview.]

    Futuristic even. Like an episode of the Jetsons.

  13. Question

    You gotta be joking ….. there will be no problem for Abbott in framing an early election theme if that’s what he wants.

    They will frame their election campaign as they usually do. Easily predictable, whether it’s 2015 or 2016.

    And for many gullible voters it’ll work.

    Lies, lies about lies fear, hypocrisy and mantras (including the 2013 mantras).

  14. MTBW

    Indeed. What I was trying to say is that I think there are any number of Australian men whose views would be in line with De Bruyn’s and a majority of them would never have set foot in a church, much less a catholic one.

  17. [98
    Player One

    …the hypocrisy of one intolerant person railing about the intolerance of others….]

    This is plainly fatuous.

  19. You still insist on throwing in the term “religious” here, as if people have no right to have social views that are informed by their religious belief.

    You appear to know very little about the inner workings of the ALP.

    There is a set of views which are consistent with a conservative Catholic worldview (anti-female, anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-euthanasia, etc) and totally inconsistent with the views of contemporary Australia, the ALP membership, and the membership of the unions which support the ALP. Yet these views plainly influence ALP policy.

    These gentlemen are of course perfectly entitled to hold bigoted religious views if they want to. But for them to masquerade as having Labor values while quietly imposing anti-Labor values is obviously a valid topic for discussion, particularly when it is actively harming Labor electorally.

    No-one is a bigger defender of freedom of thought than me. They don’t need anyone to grant them the “right” to have religion inform their worldview. But when they seek to covertly impose that worldview on society, they are fair game and indeed, in my opinion, enemies of progressive/centre-left politics.

  20. I agree with you. Many Catholics view gay people well. They pay as much attention to the official teaching now as they do to the one about condoms.

    The terrorists that kill in the name of Islam do it in a religious belief too. Nowhere near the real religion and the people who follow that faith.

    The problem with this analysis IMHO is that most muslims reject both the teachings and authority of those who tell them to behave in this reprehensible way.

    What I can never figure out with Catholicism is how people can continue to respect the authority of some old bloke in the Vatican despite rejecting his teachings on key issues.

  21. What I was trying to say is that I think there are any number of Australian men whose views would be in line with De Bruyn’s and a majority of them would never have set foot in a church, much less a catholic one.

    I posted some stats in the last thread, but the majority of Australians favour gay marriage, and a strong majority favour women’s reproductive rights and voluntary euthanasia.

  22. psyclaw,

    I don’t think the electorate would swallow that strategy. The pitfalls of early elections are being happily ignored, which suggests no real thought is being put into it.

    It’s aimed at the senate and the backbench, but I will be delighted if proven wrong.

  26. having been blindsided by the Greesn leadership change the Press gallery is trying to beat it up as some sort of dastardly plot to outs Milne.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-leadership-change-what-really-happened-behind-the-scenes-20150507-ggvwqm.html

    So some in the party thought it was time for change, surprise surprise.

    but the idea that it can happen without months of rumour mongering and end without blood on the carpet and up the walls and out into the corridor is a concept that the hacks just cant get their head around.

    so we get the story that Bandt was stiffed by his colleagues. well maybe they didnt think he was the man for the job

  27. [Disgusting, and obviously contrary to the views of people who vote Labor.]

    Unfortunately not all of them. The Labor vote has its socially conservative element, a lá Joe de Bruyn.

  28. Meanwhile in the US, we see the endgame of the Abbott model of conservative politics:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_22415.pdf

    66% of Republicans do not believe in global warming
    49% do not believe in evolution
    57% support establishing Christianity as the national religion

    When you have an electorate that ignorant, it’s hard to see how good public policy can result from democratic processes. Well done, conservatives.

  29. guytaur@106

    bemused

    Both in the Southwest. One very near Liverpool Hospital and the other one not far from Fairfield

    I knew of the one near Liverpool Hospital, on a very minor road into Warwick Farm Racecourse IIRC.

    I don’t know of any near Fairfield but have heard there is one on the Botany goods line, one across Paramatta Rd (little used goods line?) and one out near Riverstone although I don’t know where.

    You really do have to search for them and their impact is close to zero, whereas in Melbourne they are a traffic nightmare in places.

  32. ratsak@110

    “@ABCNews24: Abbott: I’ve spoken to Joe Hockey about this story, it’s a complete invention.
    #Budget2015 #auspol”


    Oh poor Joe, there’s the official denial.

    Well that settles it, Joe will go.
    [“Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.”
    – Claud Cockburn]

  35. Just Me – I did post stats in the last thread.

    E.g. 77% of ALP voters support voluntary euthanasia and 10% don’t care.

    65% of ALP voters support gay marriage and 12% don’t care.

    If there is still a socially conservative group in the ALP, it is a rump.

  36. The pundits, deprived of a regulation leadershit implosion, have invented one anyway.

    Is there anyone left who doesn’t see the political media in this country as anti-democratic scum?

    They no longer report reality at all. They just make stuff up and impose the resulting “narrative” on the facts, whatever they may be.

    Some like her here, but Annabel Crabb is one of the worst for this IMHO. She’s incapable of analysing things without a cute little angle.

  40. Can the PB commentariat give Patrick Bateman a huge cyber hug.

    He seems desperately in need of some love and understanding.

  41. Big enough rump to lose an election.

    Except that a majority of the country as a whole also holds those views, so if you lost a few diehards over the issue, you would more than make up for it by attracting moderates who are sick of Kevin Andrews and Corey Bernardi telling them where they are allowed to stick their genitalia.

  43. “@NMaconachie: Global warming is an undisputable fact that shows #neoliberalism has failed us says @senatormilne at #npc #pressclub #auspol”

  44. Joe Hockey has done it – he has achieved rising unemployment while the participation rate also fell. So we have falling exports, rising debt and rising unemployment. Brilliant!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-07/unemployment-april-jobs-data-abs/6451852

    At least Labor oversaw a modest increase in debt to keep people in work. Joe Hockey has done it to keep a few mining companies fomr paying any tax.

    As I have said several times lately, an early election may be a real strategy for the Libs to go to the polls before a recession hits. Unless the next budget has a substantial stimulus, or major tax reforms to encourage private investment of the kind Hockey and Abbott are ideologically alergic to, then recession in Australia is a real risk.

    There is no sign they will do the tax reforms, and a stimulus would force Abbott and Hockey to admit both that Labor was correct to do its stimulus, and that their surplus strategy has failed.

  45. “@NMaconachie: @senatormilne says the #IMF has returned focus on progressive taxation to remedy growing inequality. Our gov’t out of step.#npc #auspol”

  46. “@NMaconachie: @senatormilne says the #IMF has returned focus on progressive taxation to remedy growing inequality. Our gov’t out of step.#npc #auspol”

  47. Bemused 103

    Thanks I didn’t know that about earlier removal of Sydney rail crossings. Anyway when I started working in transport in the early 1980s there was an organised program to get rid of those remaining in both Sydney and Brisbane. I will never understand why Melbourne took so long to do the same thing.

  48. PB
    They’re a loudmouthed rump willing to be co-opted into Coalition/Murdoch campaigns against their own colleagues. Witness the reaction to Plibersek over SSM recently.

    It’d be fine if they found their own words to express disagreement, instead they borrow the Coalition/Murdoch narrative.

  49. He seems desperately in need of some love and understanding.

    I must say, you are a particularly obnoxious little troll.

    I used to post here years ago. It was much more pleasant when it had a bit more variety of views and a lower concentration of right faction Labor hacks.

    Reading much of what is written here, one would be forgiven for thinking that the existence of the Abbott government had nothing to do with Labor. When of course the truth is that Labor’s utter incompetence at managing the political side of government is precisely what handed us the worst government in our history. I’m slightly mystified at the amnesia of those who appear to have forgotten this… anyone even vaguely progressive should be deeply angry at Labor, and its factions, for allowing these psychos into power.

    Of course, the people who have forgotten this recent history are the same ones (at least spiritually) who assured us all over and over again that Abbott as opposition leader was a “gift” to Labor.

    My posts in the last couple of days really reflect this concern. Labor has failed in some significant respects to learn from its recent history, and appears to be falling into the same old routine of factional warfare driving policy and dividing its base. Hence we have the recent stupidity about gay marriage, and now apparently the return of the utterly moronic internet filter policy. We also have a fairly beige leader who is slowly drifting downwards in the polls, which again was a result of Labor’s internal processes rather than the triumph of democracy some would claim it to be.

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