ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

An automated phone poll by ReachTEL finds Labor maintaining a strong lead, but a small-sample Morgan phone poll shows worrying signs for Bill Shorten.

The Seven Network brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention, which was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 2532, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for the Coalition, 39.3% for Labor, 11.9% for the Greens and 2.2% for Palmer United. Further questions find strong support for increasing the tax rate on superannuation contributions for high-income earners, at 57.2% with 22.1% opposed, but an even balance of 30.7% support and 31.8% opposition for removing negative gearing on future property purchases. The poll also records 56.1% support for imposing the GST on purchases from overseas companies with 22.3% opposed. Leadership approval questions find a shift for Tony Abbott from “very poor” to “satisfactory”, with Bill Shorten’s numbers broadly unchanged. Hat tip to Leroy Lynch.

There’s considerably less good news for Bill Shorten in a Morgan phone poll on party leadership, which shows Tony Abbott leading him 44-39 as preferred prime minister – the first poll to show Abbott in the lead since November. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are little changed since the last such poll conducted in mid-January, before the Prince Philip knighthood and leadership spill vote, with his approval steady on 37% and disapproval up one to 53%. Bill Shorten, however, is respectively down three to 34% and up eight to 48%.

With respect to preferred Labor and Liberal leaders, Morgan finds Shorten losing his lead over Tanya Plibersek, who now has 23% support (up five) to Shorten’s 21% (down four), with Anthony Albanese up three to 13% and Wayne Swan steady on 10%. Tony Abbott has lost still more ground in comparison with Malcolm Turnbull (up two points as preferred Liberal leader to 38%) and Julie Bishop (up one to 27%), with his own rating down two to 12%. Scott Morrison is up three to 5%, putting him level with Joe Hockey, who has fallen heavily from favour since the government came to power.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, putting their lead at 53-47. The Coalition and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 40% and 10%, while Labor is steady on 39% and Palmer United is up one to 2%. Other findings:

• The poll shows 40% support for changes to the Senate electoral system to make it harder for micro-parties to get elected, with 33% opposed. Forty-two per cent said minor parties in the Senate were good for democracy, while 35% favoured the alternative proposition that they made government too unstable.

• Fifty-two per cent say they are not confident the government is on track to return the budget to surplus, with 36% confident; 31% believe doing so is very important, 40% somewhat important, and 14% not important.

• Seventy-seven per cent approve of government measures to withhold benefits from parents who do not get their children vaccinated.

• Seventy per cent say the gap between rich and poor in Australia is getting bigger, only 5% say smaller, and 17% say it is about the same.

UPDATE 2: Greens supporters on Twitter are taking umbrage at the wording of the following Essential Research question:

The Coalition, Labor and the Greens all support changes that would make it harder for small parties to be elected to Senate. Would you approve or disapprove of such changes?

And I agree to the extent that I don’t think they should be providing partisan respondents with cues as to what their party’s position is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,475 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    Yes you go on your little tanty. Does not change the facts already known to the public.

    To help you though you earlier this morning Shellbell posted about a Federal Court case that failed by the father of one of the nine over this issue.

  2. [I always find it interesting that The Age’s Ken Davidson, one of the more sensible observers of government policies in the last few decades, regards Perth’s public transport developments as an example to the rest of the nation.]

    As an example of what not to do? Or was it ok up until about 6 years ago?

    Liberals hate public transport and love private toll roads! Least in WA neither side has fallen into the public toll road trap.

  4. guyttaur,

    Why don’t you just see if you can put a post together that has a coherent flow.

    You seem rather flustered.

  6. [1246
    CTar1

    The police weren’t “playing god”. Just doing their job.

    Just showing no judgment.

    The 9 could have been swept up on arrival in Australia]

    And illustrating once again the exemplary purpose of the sentences. This was intended to be a triumph for revenge. Instead, by their courage Chan and Sukamarayan those who the executions have been reduced to the pallid rectitude of indifference.

  8. Further to Tricot @ 1216:

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2003/s919735.htm

    REPORTER: Prime Minister, do you believe that the death penalty is appropriate in this case?

    JOHN HOWARD: The Indonesian court has applied it and I accept that. I respect the jurisdiction of the Indonesian court and I do not intend to make any representations that it not be carried out. If it’s the view of the Indonesian court that it be carried out, then it should be carried out. These crimes were committed in Indonesia and the law of that country must prevail.

    So far as the crime itself is concerned, can I add my congratulations to the police force of Indonesia for the great investigative work that was done in order to catch those responsible. They were aided by the Australian Federal Police and I congratulate the AFP on their role.

    MARK COLVIN: The Prime Minister John Howard, speaking about the verdict of guilty, the sentence of death on Amrozi.

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2003/s920551.htm

    JOHN HOWARD: Some people say that I should be thumping the table and saying don’t execute the man. I’m not going to do that because I do respect the judicial processes of Indonesia. I also believe for me to do that would offend many Australians who lost people, who legitimately feel as decent Australians that a death penalty is appropriate.

    ALEXANDRA KIRK: Labor leader Simon Crean, too, doesn’t support capital punishment, but:

    SIMON CREAN: The fact is he committed a crime on Indonesian soil and he faced justice under the Indonesian judicial system. I’m not quibbling with their decision.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-10-03/rudd-firm-on-capital-punishment-stance/530530

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says the fact that he backs the death penalty for the Bali bombers in Indonesia does not signal any change in his opposition to capital punishment in Australia.

    Mr Rudd says the three men on death row in Indonesia over the bombings that killed 202 people, including 88 Australians, are cowards and mass murderers who deserve the justice that will be delivered to them.

    He says the Bali bombers are subject to the Indonesian system, but he has told Fairfax radio he does not believe in the death penalty in Australia or for Australians in other nations.

    The moral high ground isn’t particularly high.

  9. One of the worst aspects of the action of the Federal Police re the Bali Nine is the effect it is likely to have on people reporting concerns to the Federal Police.

    If you knew that the son of a friend might be about to get involved as a drug mule in South East Asia would you tell the Federal Police. I sure as hell wouldn’t.

  10. [If you knew that the son of a friend might be about to get involved as a drug mule in South East Asia would you tell the Federal Police. I sure as hell wouldn’t.]

    I probably wouldn’t have before but certainly at no time since. Great article on the drum about how we pretty much didn’t give a toss about the Bali two when they were actually sentenced to death. Very interesting.

  12. GG

    “You seem rather flustered.”

    A paragon of virtue who is against “personal abuse” this morning, but not this arvo.

    Pot, kettle, black !

    Oh, and GG I’ll see if I can provide you with an educative reading list about empathy ….. might fill that void.

  14. psyclaw,

    Saying someone is flustered is not abuse unless it is you.

    Guytaur’s 1251 is probably his attempt at bumfluff poetry. But it’s not as good as some of his other recent offerings.

  17. The capture of the Republican Party
    _________________________
    In the US this week,as reported in a major US site below …the Repugs candidates are begging suport from the two of the most powerful lobbies in the land

    In Iowa theye are flocking to speak to a national conference of the fundementalist churches ,all against science et al.and gay marriage etc

    In Las Vegas,the Republican Jewish Congress …led by Sheldon Adelson ,self-decribed as “the richest Jew ” in the world with a fortune of around 50 billion,and famed as a union-buster in his many casinos…is laying down the law…and heaps of money.. for the candidates he approves of…who follow the zionist line on foreign policy

    One despairs of any decent US policies when such people have such influence

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/will-vegas-values-take-over-the-gop/

  21. Crime ….Reincarnation …. Redemption

    I was a highwayman, along the coach roads I did ride
    Sword and pistol by my side
    Many a young maid lost her baubles to my trade
    Many a soldier shed his lifeblood on my blade
    The bastards hung me in the spring of twenty five
    But I am still alive

    I’ll fly a starship across the universe divide
    And when I reach the other side
    I’ll find a place to rest my spirit if I can
    Perhaps I may become a highwayman again
    Or I may simply be a single drop of rain
    But I will remain

    And I’ll be back again and again

  26. GG…. re US votes

    _______The Republicans are at odds with the people in the great “liberal “cities like New York ,LA and San Fransisco, Seattle.Chicago..(there are two Americas.).whose state electoral college vote is vital for the presidency

    Pity is that the Clinton’s were very right-wing Democrats and did little for the many poor lower-income Americans …and the Clintons are/were “liberal interventions” …think the war over Kosovo ..the attack on Serbia acheived nothing and Hilary in the Senate voted for the Iraq War……and even the steep decline of US power and wealth may not inhibit the warmongers in the political elite ,,,,dying imperial powers are a menace to all …,as instanced recently by some in the US who have talked about a war with Russia….never even said in the Cold War days

  30. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/28/us-usa-congress-intelligence-idUSKBN0NJ2JP20150428

    Conservative legislators in the US seek to reduce State powers with respect to metadata…no surprises there.

    [U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation on Tuesday to end spy agencies’ bulk collection of Americans’ telephone data, setting up a potential showdown over the program, which expires on June 1.

    Republican U.S. Representatives Bob Goodlatte and Jim Sensenbrenner and Democrats John Conyers and Jerry Nadler introduced the “USA Freedom Act” in the House of Representatives, seeking to tighten control of a program publicly exposed two years ago by former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden.

    Similar legislation was introduced in the U.S. Senate by Democrat Patrick Leahy and Republican Mike Lee.

    The bills would bar the bulk collection of Americans’ telephone records under Section 215 of the USA Patriot Act and other intelligence authorities, and increase transparency and accountability in surveillance programs.

    They are supported by privacy groups but will run into opposition in Congress and at the White House.]

  31. deblonay,

    Clinton the Bill version created economic growth, balanced the Budget and created hope and opportunity wherever he could.

    Most people look on his Presidency with some nostalgia and longing. The extreme left like you will always carp and whinge. But, measuring performance against imaginary standards is futile imho.

    I’m looking forward to Hillary taking over.

  32. Civil conflict in the US is disguised as a law and order issue. Really, it’s about poverty, racism, insitutional violence, the militarisation of policing, oppressive sentencing and over-imprisonment. Inevitably, it is also about capital punishment either before or after judicial orders are obtained…

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/29/us-usa-police-missouri-idUSKBN0NK07120150429

    [A second person was injured overnight following gunfire in Ferguson, Missouri after a protest near the site where unarmed black teen Michael Brown was shot dead by police last summer, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported early on Wednesday.

    The victim was in an area where some protesters had moved on Tuesday night, after obeying police orders to leave the site of the demonstration where a man was shot and a suspect taken into custody.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/29/us-usa-police-baltimore-idUSKBN0NI1N720150429

    [Thousands of police in riot gear and National Guard troops patrolled Baltimore to enforce a curfew on Tuesday night, dispersing protesters with pepper spray a day after the city was shaken by the worst rioting in the United States in years.

    With helicopters overhead and armored vehicles on the ground, most people respected a curfew that started at 10 p.m. EDT (0200 GMT Wednesday) and goes until 5 a.m. all week.

    But a few hundred people defied authorities, gathering at an intersection that was the scene of heavy looting in the largely black city a night earlier. Police broke up the group using rubber bullets and projectiles with pepper spray chemical irritant, and arrested seven people. Three more were arrested elsewhere in the city.

    Baltimore erupted in violence on Monday hours after the funeral for a black man who died April 19 after he was injured in police custody a week earlier.]

  33. Adrian 1277

    Must be more than that as no such twitter name???? There is 5 or 69 bu as I can’t speak spanish don’t think that is you

  34. [Civil conflict in the US is disguised as a law and order issue. Really, it’s about poverty, racism, insitutional violence, the militarisation of policing, oppressive sentencing and over-imprisonment]

    Yep.
    It beats me how the authorities can continue to condone overt racism, such as police shooting unarmed black people on a daily basis, and then feign indignation when the people retaliate in the only way open to them – media, law and legislation having been shown to a closed avenue.

    Similar is happening here in Australia with the attacks on Aboriginal people on a variety of fronts.

  35. [1281
    Greensborough Growler

    Clinton the Bill version created economic growth, balanced the Budget and created hope and opportunity wherever he could.

    Most people look on his Presidency with some nostalgia and longing. The extreme left like you will always carp and whinge.]

    Whaddyamean D is a leftie! I thought he had become ambi-political. He’s pro-Putin. He’s also pro-Republican while being anti-Semitic.

  36. Narns @ 1258

    While I’ve generally been against the death penalty in principle, like most other Australians I had at least a high level of comfort that they were going to be punished for their direct role in murdering a large number of people indiscriminately for the sake of making a political point – and being proud of having done so.

    As a result of looking at my own thinking as this case developed over the course of this year – and particularly learning more about the other people who were slated to die with the two Australians – I have become resolutely opposed to the death penalty.

    One thing became very clear to me. Chan and Sukumaran were clearly the most culpable of those who were executed in terms of the crime committed. But there was so much wrong with killing them insofar as their murder would achieve nothing in reducing drug dependence in Indonesia – not the least because they were taking drugs from Indonesia, not to it.

    But the other cases were nothing short of paradigms for what is utterly wrong with the death penalty. One had only 50 grams of heroin. Others had received lesser sentences and they were upgraded to death. Most of them, especially the Nigerians and the Mary Jane Veloso, were obviously just low level mules.

    It made clear to me that the whole use of the death penalty anywhere had absolutely nothing to do with genuine justice or with genuine deterrence (as evidenced by the fact that the crimes for which people are executed keep happening and people keep getting executed for them).

    The fact that two Australians were involved concentrated my mind – and that of many other Australians – on an issue that had not been part of our national discourse since the hanging of Ronald Ryan. But my opposition is universal. It is just murder for political benefit and nothing more.

    And for all those who complain about sending our soldiers off to war, this is certainly no better, even if on a smaller scale. But at least most casualties in war are not premeditated. These 8 people died as a result of exceptionally premeditated murder by senior people in Indonesia. And yes – the same applies to Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and some of the states in the USA. There is no difference and all these systems are corrupt politically, although not all of them are corrupt financially. At the end of the day someone is dead.

  40. [1287
    Greensborough Growler

    briefly,

    Deblonay is not anti-Semitic.]

    No? He’s certainly phobic about Jews and relies on the classical stereotyping that depict Jews as rich, greedy, manipulative, untrustworthy and likely corrupt. I think that qualifies him as anti-Semitic.

  41. Has the rehabilitation of Arfur begun , or at least the “softening up the public” phase. Sinodinos on Q&A last night and tonight he pops in as a guest on Speers program.

  42. [1291
    poroti

    Has the rehabilitation of Arfur begun , or at least the “softening up the public” phase. Sinodinos on Q&A last night and tonight he pops in as a guest on Speers program.]

    Yeah, the human face of LNP corruption…

  43. adrian 1288

    Still not I am curious why now could you send me a tweet @randlight please same gravatar as here I actually copied and pasted your name into twitter search

  46. briefly,

    I disagree with Deblonay regarding the nation of Israel. But that usually puts me at odds with most here.

    He also dislikes the alleged influence of pro-Zionist money and philosophy in guiding US foreign policy.

    I don’t believe that makes him anti-Semitic. But, he can answer for himself.

    Some of this bigotry and abuse seems to roll too easily off people’s tongues unfortunately.

  48. [1296
    Greensborough Growler

    He also dislikes the alleged influence of pro-Zionist money and philosophy in guiding US foreign policy.]

    He’s going to have a hard time reconciling the hidden hand of Zionist conspiracy with US-Iranian detente. Virtually the entire conduct of US policy in the MENA in the last 15 years has been inimical to Israeli interests; and we might also say that almost the entire conduct of Israeli policy has been in spite of US objections.

  50. Pajamas,

    Michelle is waiting till after the Board makes their decision before proffering a final prediction. I did hear though she had narrowed the range to they could go up, they could go down and they could stay the same.

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