ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

An automated phone poll by ReachTEL finds Labor maintaining a strong lead, but a small-sample Morgan phone poll shows worrying signs for Bill Shorten.

The Seven Network brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention, which was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 2532, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for the Coalition, 39.3% for Labor, 11.9% for the Greens and 2.2% for Palmer United. Further questions find strong support for increasing the tax rate on superannuation contributions for high-income earners, at 57.2% with 22.1% opposed, but an even balance of 30.7% support and 31.8% opposition for removing negative gearing on future property purchases. The poll also records 56.1% support for imposing the GST on purchases from overseas companies with 22.3% opposed. Leadership approval questions find a shift for Tony Abbott from “very poor” to “satisfactory”, with Bill Shorten’s numbers broadly unchanged. Hat tip to Leroy Lynch.

There’s considerably less good news for Bill Shorten in a Morgan phone poll on party leadership, which shows Tony Abbott leading him 44-39 as preferred prime minister – the first poll to show Abbott in the lead since November. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are little changed since the last such poll conducted in mid-January, before the Prince Philip knighthood and leadership spill vote, with his approval steady on 37% and disapproval up one to 53%. Bill Shorten, however, is respectively down three to 34% and up eight to 48%.

With respect to preferred Labor and Liberal leaders, Morgan finds Shorten losing his lead over Tanya Plibersek, who now has 23% support (up five) to Shorten’s 21% (down four), with Anthony Albanese up three to 13% and Wayne Swan steady on 10%. Tony Abbott has lost still more ground in comparison with Malcolm Turnbull (up two points as preferred Liberal leader to 38%) and Julie Bishop (up one to 27%), with his own rating down two to 12%. Scott Morrison is up three to 5%, putting him level with Joe Hockey, who has fallen heavily from favour since the government came to power.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, putting their lead at 53-47. The Coalition and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 40% and 10%, while Labor is steady on 39% and Palmer United is up one to 2%. Other findings:

• The poll shows 40% support for changes to the Senate electoral system to make it harder for micro-parties to get elected, with 33% opposed. Forty-two per cent said minor parties in the Senate were good for democracy, while 35% favoured the alternative proposition that they made government too unstable.

• Fifty-two per cent say they are not confident the government is on track to return the budget to surplus, with 36% confident; 31% believe doing so is very important, 40% somewhat important, and 14% not important.

• Seventy-seven per cent approve of government measures to withhold benefits from parents who do not get their children vaccinated.

• Seventy per cent say the gap between rich and poor in Australia is getting bigger, only 5% say smaller, and 17% say it is about the same.

UPDATE 2: Greens supporters on Twitter are taking umbrage at the wording of the following Essential Research question:

The Coalition, Labor and the Greens all support changes that would make it harder for small parties to be elected to Senate. Would you approve or disapprove of such changes?

And I agree to the extent that I don’t think they should be providing partisan respondents with cues as to what their party’s position is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,475 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [ Just showing no judgment.

    The 9 could have been swept up on arrival in Australia, ]

    Pretty much. And considering that the crime the AFP knew they were committing was to import drugs into Australia (not use or import them into Indonesia for sale) I’d argue that it would have been more appropriate for them to do that.

    There must have been some reason that the AFP decided to let the Indonesians have them, and i think a definitive statement from the AFP as to what that was would be appropriate.

  2. [1299
    Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment

    victoria asked: Who will get it right next week. Will or wont interest rates be cut by the RBA?

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/five-reasons-the-rba-may-not-cut-rates-next-week-20150429-1mvqtw.html

    I suggest asking Michelle Grattan for a definitive answer.

    OTOH, maybe not.]

    Obliquely, by bidding up the AUD, the market has already put rates up. Money just got a bit tighter. The higher currency might encourage the RBA to cut. But I think they will wait until they see what’s in the budget.

  3. Jolyon Wagg

    [ One of the worst aspects of the action of the Federal Police re the Bali Nine is the effect it is likely to have on people reporting concerns to the Federal Police. ]

    Indeed. Only a blind man could fail to see the growing political activism of the AFP over the last few years, and only a fool would report a crime to them and expect it to become anything but a political plaything.

    That’s why I refer to them as the Parliamentary Police.

  4. Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment

    If Michelle “On the other hand” Grattan is unavailable you could ask Wrong Way McCrann ……….or not.

  5. [ Has the rehabilitation of Arfur begun , or at least the “softening up the public” phase. Sinodinos on Q&A last night and tonight he pops in as a guest on Speers program. ]

    I think it’s an experiment. If they can make Uncle Arfur palatable to the public again then there is some hope left for Abbott.

  6. [There must have been some reason that the AFP decided to let the Indonesians have them, and i think a definitive statement from the AFP as to what that was would be appropriate.]

    My opinion is that there would have been at least a few players in the AFP who felt that drug runners were let off too lightly by the courts after the AFP did all the hard work to identify, catch and prove their guilt. No doubt they felt that apprehending the Bali 9 in Indonesia would result in them getting what the AFP thought they really deserved. A bit of rough justice if you like.

    If I’m right, like every vigilante action it will have backfired on the AFP.

  7. The AFP gave evidence in the proceedings brought against it by Rush and several others (but not Chan or Sukumaran) about what the rationale was behind their actions or inactions.

  8. imacca

    [ i think a definitive statement from the AFP as to what that was would be appropriate.]

    Colvin fielded a question on this at the Lowey Institute about a month ago.

    He answered that an internal investigation had been done and that its conclusions would be released when the fate of the two was resolved.

  9. player One

    If there is a rehabilitation of Sinodinos being attempted it might be linked to the the problems facing ICAC in the wake of the High Court ruling on its powers.

    If ICAC can’t make a finding against him, in Tory eyes, and the eyes of their cheerleaders in the media, he will be a cleanskin.

    A cleanskin with a bad memory, but a cleanskin nonetheless.

  10. Years ago some Australian politicians (Howard and Crean for e.g.) thought the Bali smugglers deserved what was coming to them and it was a matter for Indonesia. The Daily Telegraph said the same. Strange how things change. The only politician whose sincerity I trust on this issue is Tanya Plibersek.

  11. Here’s a funnier version of McIntyre

    [A SINGLE mother has been fired from her job — before she even started it — after posting a Facebook rant about children that quickly made its way to her new boss.

    Kaitlyn Walls, 27, was hours away from starting work at a Texas child care centre when she decided to update her Facebook status. Bad decision.

    “I start my new job today but I absolutely hate working at day cares,” she wrote. “Lol it’s all good I just really hate being around a lot of kids.”]

  13. [The AFP gave evidence in the proceedings brought against it by Rush and several others (but not Chan or Sukumaran) about what the rationale was behind their actions or inactions.]

    Yeah but what credibility would anyone actually give that? Did the judge do the normal judicial thing and find it appropriate to meekly accept it all without a second thought?

  14. Chris Graham provides a disturbing explanation of the AFP’s actions:

    -And it’s not just Abbott. In truth, what our government is saying publicly, and what it, and a succession of governments before it have done quietly, are two very different things.

    For despite what both sides of Australian politics will tell you today, Australia does support Indonesia’s policy of executing drug traffickers, and we have done for more than two decades.

    There’s one simple reason for this: politics.

    – See more at: https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/29/blood-their-hands-secret-government-treaties-helped-kill-chan-and-sukumaran#sthash.o1lJkZ0i.dpuf

  15. WWP

    The AFP have had a decade to come up with a justification for their actions.

    Is there anybody better at arse-covering than a police force?

    Frankly I wouldn’t trust them to tell me the correct time of day.

  16. [
    Here’s a funnier version of McIntyre
    ]

    Hmm I dont find it funny, although if you assume it isn’t a joke it does reflect on her ability to enjoy the job. there is an inference, perhaps unfair, that her dislike of children would affect the quality of her work.

    I take it you’d be quite happy for doctors to be sacked by the health department for political comments on PB that were factually correct, unrelated to their job, but we’re unpopular with an Adelaide newspaper and an easily embarrassed but not very smart employer?

  20. [Michelle is waiting till after the Board makes their decision before proffering a final prediction. I did hear though she had narrowed the range to they could go up, they could go down and they could stay the same.]

    on the other hand…

  23. CTar1

    [ an internal investigation had been done]
    A colonoscopy of the blighters using ” Roto-Rooter” would have been appropriate.

    But seriously, virtually EVERY time the military/police etc do such an investigation the nearest we get to “we flucked up” are mistakes have been made but “we have changed “procedures/training” or the old “few bad apples.”

  25. [Psephos worked for Feeney.
    Not sure how friendly they were.
    He also worked for Danby.]

    Did he get another job that prevented him posting here or did we not adore him sufficiently?

  26. I would see the dismantling of an international heroin smuggling racket as very good outcome for the AFP and the Australian community.

  32. CTar1

    Speaking of which. A couple of headlines from today. Karzai and mates will have helicopters fired up and on stand by 24/7 lest they get a Najibullah.

    The traditional Taliban spring offensive well on the way. They call it the “Fighting season” over there.

    [Dozens Killed as Taliban Overruns North Afghan Province Kunduz ]
    .
    [Afghanistan’s elite fleeing to Europe]

  33. poroti

    [arzai and mates will have helicopters fired up and on stand by 24/7 lest they get a Najibullah.]

    Yep. All over in 12 months, I’d say.

  34. Drug addiction is chiefly a demand-side problem. Reducing supply is helpful but it is not the main game. Our governments should resolutely oppose the death penalty in all cases and for all nationalities, not just in word but in deed. No agency of the Australian Government should do anything that would assist a government to carry out an execution. Not only should they refrain from helping, but they should work actively to prevent a person from falling into the hands of a government that executes people.

  35. [
    I would see the dismantling of an international heroin smuggling racket as very good outcome for the AFP and the Australian community.]

    But has it ever happened?

  39. [1331
    Greensborough Growler

    The Indonesians seem underwhelmed by Australian criticism.]

    He’s a serial killer. Why would we expect him to be troubled by criticism. The entire point is to evoke a strong reaction.

  41. [I would see the dismantling of an international heroin smuggling racket as very good outcome for the AFP and the Australian community.]

    It might have been a very good outcome for the AFP, but I suspect it did bugger all for the Australian community. The only way way to put all international heroin smuggling rackets out of business is to destroy the business model. And that will never happen as long as heroin remains illegal and addicts can only obtain it illegally and at great cost and great profit to those who organise the supply.

    A policy of interdiction makes us (and the Indonesians) feel better because it feels like we are doing something to restrict the flow of drugs without actually facing up to the reality that we have to supply the drugs to those who are addicted, while working to free them from their addiction, which would remove the incentive of drug pushers to find new customers and new income streams.

  42. [1341
    TPOF

    I would see the dismantling of an international heroin smuggling racket as very good outcome for the AFP and the Australian community.

    It might have been a very good outcome for the AFP, but I suspect it did bugger all for the Australian community.]

    According to NM, the racket was broken up before the trials of the Bali 9. Essentially, the 9 were traded in a context of officially ordered bi-lateral policing and security co-operation. Our politicians are complicit in the human sacrifices carried out in Bali last night.

    The documentary record speaks for itself.

    https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/29/blood-their-hands-secret-government-treaties-helped-kill-chan-and-sukumaran#sthash.o1lJkZ0i.dpuf

  46. [Liberal MP Philip Ruddock, who was attorney-general at the time the Bali nine were arrested, said a review by Judge Paul Finn in 2006 found that the AFP had acted lawfully.]

    Christ I’m sick of this excuse – “everything was done lawfully” – which is trotted out with increasing frequency by Governments and corporations alike, as if not breaking the law was some kind of gold standard of ethical probity and not the bare bloody minimum.

  49. [1342
    briefly]

    I’ve been describing Widodo as a serial killer. He is. He has procured the deaths of numerous powerless convicts and more are to follow. He evidently relishes it. Death has been recruited to serve his purposes.

    But if he can be described this way, so can our own politicians. The more terrible thing is our own political class get to pretend the policy of human sacrifice is nothing to do with them or us. NM shows their protests to the contrary are merely posed. Its official character means their denial is not only personal, it is collective.

    The truth is human sacrifice is an officially-enabled and documented policy of this country. This is the truth behind the rites carried out last night in Indonesia.

    How fitting it is that this officially-ordered blood sacrifice coincides with the Anzac centenary. We have off-shored our killing.

  50. So, am I Robinson Crusoe here, or does anyone else think withdrawing the Ambo temporarily is actually a bit piss-weak as a response?

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