Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46

New federal polls from Newspoll and Ipsos land a fair distance apart – the former giving Bill Shorten his worst personal ratings to date, the latter giving Labor a strong result in what has hitherto been a Coalition-leaning series.

Two big new polls:

• In The Australian, Newspoll repeats its surprisingly strong result from the Coalition at its previous poll three weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 51-49. Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to rise from their low base, with approval up four to 33% and disapproval down two to 59%, while Bill Shorten gets his worst figures to date with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up four to 54%. Abbott all but closes the gap on prime minister, now at 41-40 compared with 41-36 last time. The poll was as always conducted from Friday to Sunday, the sample being 1172.

• By stark contrast, the latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers belies the pollster’s previous form as a leaner to the Coalition in giving Labor two-party leads of 54-46 on previous election preferences and 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences. This represents a three-point shift to Labor from the previous Ipsos poll in late February on both measures. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 38%, the Coalition is down three to 39% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Reflecting the trend elsewhere, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval down two to 60%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 42% and up one to 44%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly from 44-39 to 46-38. The poll also finds 37% support for an increase in the goods and services tax with 59% opposed – a relatively favourable result. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

992 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 16 of 20
1 15 16 17 20
  1. Yesterday I was talking with OH about the woolworths Anzac campaign. I couldnt believe how crass it was. Good to see I wasnt the only one.

  2. [In fact, in my opinion, the morality is similar to that of many tax avoidance schemes. ]

    I’m not sure I disagree but it is a terrible terrible system if it can be scammed so easily. The tax system is not at all like that.

  3. Dr Karl on ABC774

    ABC Radio Melbourne
    12m12 minutes ago
    ABC Radio Melbourne ‏@774melbourne
    Dr Karl regrets and backs away from Intergenerational report’ 774 ABC Melbourne on #SoundCloud

  4. Snap Victoria! Dr Karl realises too late he has been used. The IGR is pure Hockeynomics. Kruszelniski should have asked himself why the government wanted to use him to front the campaign before agreeing to it. He was niaive.

  5. While I don’t mind Kevin Andrews embarrassed I think that he couldn’t name the leader of ISIL is a big deal.

    a typical ‘got ya’ question.

  6. Good to know our Defence Minister has a clear grasp of what sort of threat he is sending 300 Aussie troops to face. “Go and fight Whats-his-name!”
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/defence-minister-kevin-andrews-unable-to-name-islamic-state-leader-20150414-1ml5lc.html

    Sadly on the 100th anniversary of Gallipoli, we are once again sending Aussie troops on a fools errand in a distant war that has nothing to do with us. I hope they all come back safely, but fear some will not. Have a good day all.

  7. victoria@753

    Dr Karl on ABC774

    A
    Dr Karl regrets and backs away from Intergenerational report’ 774 ABC Melbourne on #SoundCloud

    Ta Vic.

    He still sounded pretty wishy washy in his ‘backdown’.

    Still not impressed with him at all – thought better of him.

  8. As far as Dr Karl is concerned, was it Shakespear? something to do with whoever steals my purse steals trash, but whoever steals my good name steals all I really have?

    That one can be so smart and yet so stupid is the puzzle.

  9. [While I don’t mind Kevin Andrews embarrassed I think that he couldn’t name the leader of ISIL is a big deal.]

    Yeah it is not like they should have any understanding of the situation just because they are dropping more Aussies into the region. WTF!

  10. [Vic govt pays $339m to scrap #EWLink – for costs incurred. NO compo (lost opportunities) to consortium. Will this be the new norm? #springst]

  11. WeWantPaul@746

    I still can’t get over how the foreign EW link contractors have gone to their respective governments to cry poor.

    It’s akin to Rio Tinto and Gina going to the Australian government to urge China to buy more of their iron ore.


    It is a shame the members of the previous Victorian Government can’t be made personally liable for this shambles. I hope Victorians remember how dodgy this deal was.

    I think it’s cheeky that Matthew Guy has said wtte that the current government is “looking after their mates” after what he’s done himself. Pot, kettle, black.

  12. Raaraa

    Matthew Guy is an embarrassment. Instead of shutting his mouth. He continues to talk as if it is the Labor govt who stuffed up.

  13. The east west link project was a dog of a project that not only wasnt going to solve traffic woes. It relied on all existing roads being tolled

  14. [Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says “anyone who wants to come back to their home can do so” re: properties acquired for #EWLink project #springst]

  15. [759
    Socrates

    Good to know our Defence Minister has a clear grasp of what sort of threat he is sending 300 Aussie troops to face. “Go and fight Whats-his-name!”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/defence-minister-kevin-andrews-unable-to-name-islamic-state-leader-20150414-1ml5lc.html

    Sadly on the 100th anniversary of Gallipoli, we are once again sending Aussie troops on a fools errand in a distant war that has nothing to do with us. I hope they all come back safely, but fear some will not. Have a good day all.]

    A fool’s errand indeed!

  16. Well now we have facts not speculation on the East West link its going to be a lot harder for Abbott to say Labor threw money away on the EW link.

    It is now beyond doubt the money spent was by the Liberals and that waste is indeed a Liberal Government waste in trying to be too clever by half.

  17. $339 million compensation for the non-building of the East West Link still sounds over the top. As I understand it no concrete has been mixed, no holes dug. All of the work done to date would be planning and some design, done in offices with brainpower and software tools.

    Suppose the equivalant of 100 staff worked on the project full time for an average of two years at a generous average of $200 per hour, 8 hours per day 230 days per year. There’s $37 million. Double that to allow for accomodation, travel, computers and net work gets us to about $75 million.

    Quite a nice little earner. Certainly no sovereign risk.

  18. “@abcnewsCanberra: #BREAKING: New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption has lost a High Court bid to investigate Prosecutor Margaret Cunneen.”

  19. [717
    confessions

    Really we’d be better off withdrawing from the Refugee Convention than doing what we’re doing

    Something I think we should do. The existing Convention is meaningless given what we’ve seen of late.]

    The Convention is a dead letter these days, at least as far as IMAs are concerned. We do not have a refugee policy. We have a policy of military and paramilitary detention of the essentially stateless in conditions where they are subject to extra-legal violence.

    This is the White Australia policy re-made as a Yellow-bellied policy. We have not only failed those who have sought our protection, we have failed ourselves.

  20. briefly

    I agree with you on refugees @ 786. However that is Australian Government failure not the failure of the refugee convention.

    Those abuses we have seen of AS have also breached the Human Rights Convention. I do not see anyone saying we should withdraw from that treaty.

  21. WWP

    I also don’t think Andrews being unable to name the ISIS leader was such a big deal. The real issue was the way he could not bring himself to say he either didn’t know or didn’t remember.

    polliea are so programmed these days they don’t realise how stupid they look.

    Best answer would have been to say “look Leigh, you got me there, the name has slipped my mind …” And make light if it .

  22. “@JulianBurnside: Mitch Fifield is wrong. We breach Refugees Conv, ICCPR, Conv Against Torture; Conv on rights of the Child, Univ Declaration of Human Rights”

  23. [.@DanielAndrewsMP says he plans to introduce legislation prohibiting any future government from rushing into contracts close to an election.]

  24. Former Vic Lib Treasurer Michael O’Brien should be held to account for this conduct

    [#springst @DanielAndrewsMP says side-letter signed by @michaelobrienmp could have seen state up for $1.2b.]

  25. There is so much for me to be unhappy about these days. Here is something else.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/chinese-police-chase-corruption-suspects-in-australian-suburbs-20150414-1mkwd2.html

    [Mr Dong works as a bus driver for Chinese tour groups and lives in Glen Waverley with his wife, Yang Xiaomei, and their school-aged daughter, all of whom are believed to be naturalised Australian citizens.

    A Rizhao police officer with direct knowledge of the investigation said he believed his colleagues had travelled in an unofficial capacity, raising questions as to whether Australian police or diplomats were notified of the repatriation efforts being carried out on Australian soil.]

  26. Re ICAC and Cunneen

    Bad cases make bad law. I don’t know if the allegations were true but this is not the sort of situation that ICAC was set up to deal with.

    ICAC’s priority needs to be serious and/or high impact allegations of official corruption – using a position of power to obtain corrupt benefits for that person or others. From what I read, at its highest the worst you could say is that Ms Cunneen might have used broad knowledge that she could have come across in the course of her job – but any knowledgable lawyer in the field might have the same information from their experience.

    Now they’ve potentially screwed up their pursuit of bigger fish.

  27. Andrews should have known, much more so than Bowen and the tax thresholds and I’m pretty sure Bowen wasn’t given much slack here.

  28. Dr.Karl close to completely recanted this morning on ABC radio’s AM.

    He said the trusted the government on the IGA, something he now readily admits he should not have done, citing the story of the scorpion and the frog to make the point that lying is what liars do. It was a fairly stark condemnation.

    I don’t know the contractual arrangements between Dr Karl and the government, but his mea culpa was so strong that it wouldn’t surprise me if the government sued him for wrecking their advertising campaign, or asked him for their money back.

    The quick bucks were clearly not worth it when you compare them against the value of Dr Karl’s shattered credibility, which has taken a rather large broadside from this affair.

    The next time he spruiks something – be it a product or a scientific discovery – his audience will be entitled to ask whether he really believes what he is saying, or has even researched it.

    His Curate’s Egg explanation of the report – that some parts of it were good – won’t wash with the punters who are still being bombarded with “Dr Karl” pseudo-TED commercials on the telly for something he has publicly repudiated, yet his electronic ghost keeps on urging us to read the report and make up our own minds after he has clearly made up his.

    Dr Karl being vaguely associated with the waffly Left, tree-hugging fraternity, I wouldn’t think the 2GB’s and the Murdoch minions will care less about his public humiliation.

    It’s all downside for Dr Karl, who seems to have spruiked one dud product too many.

  29. Re East West link

    I was always of the view that the Government held back release of the contractual documents in order to maximise its ability to get to an agreement with the consortium. It appears I’m right.

    I’m not victorian and I don’t use their roads, but it’s hard to see how any Victorian – even on the conservative side of politics – can see the behaviour of the former Liberal government as anything but appalling.

    It’s an astonishing indictment of their collective political judgment that they continue to attach themselves to this deal. Maybe they misread Daniel Andrews reluctance to engage on the matter as politically, rather than commercially driven. I suspect they will now be sadly disabused of that miscalculation.

Comments Page 16 of 20
1 15 16 17 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *