Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46

New federal polls from Newspoll and Ipsos land a fair distance apart – the former giving Bill Shorten his worst personal ratings to date, the latter giving Labor a strong result in what has hitherto been a Coalition-leaning series.

Two big new polls:

• In The Australian, Newspoll repeats its surprisingly strong result from the Coalition at its previous poll three weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 51-49. Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to rise from their low base, with approval up four to 33% and disapproval down two to 59%, while Bill Shorten gets his worst figures to date with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up four to 54%. Abbott all but closes the gap on prime minister, now at 41-40 compared with 41-36 last time. The poll was as always conducted from Friday to Sunday, the sample being 1172.

• By stark contrast, the latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers belies the pollster’s previous form as a leaner to the Coalition in giving Labor two-party leads of 54-46 on previous election preferences and 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences. This represents a three-point shift to Labor from the previous Ipsos poll in late February on both measures. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 38%, the Coalition is down three to 39% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Reflecting the trend elsewhere, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval down two to 60%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 42% and up one to 44%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly from 44-39 to 46-38. The poll also finds 37% support for an increase in the goods and services tax with 59% opposed – a relatively favourable result. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

992 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46”

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  1. [“Turkey.”]

    Dunno about Turkey, but in the U.S.A it is indeed a state tax collected individually(and at different rates making it a mess).

    Here in Australia it’s a state tax collected by the Feds to avoid such an issue.

  2. Nicholas

    given they’re currently in the UK, they must be living somewhere. I’m sure there would be some kind of residency requirement.

    One of my friends was allowed to vote in a UK election. She voted in the electorate she lived in (and indeed, had to vote at a specific booth).

  3. briefly/Nicholas

    I have what was called a “continuous right of entry” and a flat there.

    I’ve voted many times in the City of London ‘local government’ elections – after all I’m a rate payer.

    It’s never occurred to me that I may be able to vote in a GE – I vote in Australian elections. I’ll leave it to them to elect their own to Westminster.

  8. It has not always been necessary to be a citizen to vote in Australia. It was sufficient to be a resident and a British Subject…

    [There are British subjects living permanently in Australia, who are not Australian citizens, who are eligible to vote in federal elections and referendums.

    Under section 93(1)(b)(ii) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, British subjects, who were enrolled for a federal electoral division in Australia immediately before 26 January 1984, are eligible to enrol and vote at federal elections and referendums. Section 4 of the Referendum (Machinery Provisions) Act 1984 also provides that electors who are entitled to vote at an election are entitled to vote at a referendum.]

    http://www.aec.gov.au/enrolling_to_vote/british_subjects.htm

  9. Looks like there might be an upcoming fight between local councils and the State Government here in Victoria over rate capping. Already Frankston, Mornington and Baw Baw have commenced or are undergoing restructuring to lower costs. Baw Baw and Mornington have already cut staff and outsourcing and shut down of services are on the cards elsewhere.

    The ASU have a campaign out atm comparing the Andrews government with the Kennett local government reforms of the 1990s.

    This could get very ugly.

  10. [653
    CTar1

    briefly/Nicholas

    I have what was called a “continuous right of entry” and a flat there.

    I’ve voted many times in the City of London ‘local government’ elections – after all I’m a rate payer.]

    The property franchise…wonderful institution 🙂

  11. [How can someone so supposedly smart have failed at the simplest hurdle – i.e. to not endorse something you have not even read?]

    It looks to me like he grabbed the cash without a second thought. If he can offer a more generous reason then I’d like to hear it.

  14. [rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, April 14, 2015 at 6:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Bit late now

    The man appearing on television screens across the country promoting the Abbott government’s Intergenerational Report – science broadcaster Karl Kruszelnicki – has hardened his stance against the document, describing it as “flawed” and admitting to concerns that it was “fiddled with” by the government.

    Dr Kruszelnicki, widely known as Dr Karl, has previously revealed that he had not read the report before he agreed to front the taxpayer-funded campaign, which is expected to cost millions.]

    Given that the government seems to be trying to anchor their whole narrative (to the extent that they have one) on the IGR, perhaps Labor should offer to run paid ads featuring the good doctor expressing his belief that the document has been tampered with and that he now realizes it is flawed. What a huge embarrassment that would be for Abbott.

  15. A trucking and logistics company that hauls iron ore for Atlas (which has mothballed operations in WA) has also gone into a trading halt and is reviewing operations.

    There will be significant flow on effects from companies such as this right down to the local coffee shop and pub.

  17. Darn @ 664

    I think the good doctor’s street cred has been totally shot although it would be a good marketing angle for Labor.

    Dr Karl would NEVER get a gig with the LNP / IPA / related stooges again.

  18. briefly

    [The property franchise…wonderful institution ]

    I’ve never thought much about it or inquired. If I had I would most likely have thought that the CoL might be different due to ancient rights and that it’s a ‘Corporation’ rather than a standard local government.

  19. SGH

    during the election campaign, as soon as I got the policy announcement on this I contacted Labor HO to say what a stupid idea it was.

  20. [668
    CTar1

    briefly

    The property franchise…wonderful institution

    I’ve never thought much about it or inquired. If I had I would most likely have thought that the CoL might be different due to ancient rights and that it’s a ‘Corporation’ rather than a standard local government.]

    Once upon a time, citizenship was not so politicised as it is these days. If one was a resident and had come from a good home, one could vote… 🙂

  24. CTar1
    I’m slightly ignorant on local politics here, but almost all young people I’ve met voted yes for independence.
    I work in renewable energy so would vote for whoever supports it more. It seems different to Australia in that there doesn’t appear to be a party that does everything it can to impede renewables.

  25. MTBW@618

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vaccinationexempt-church-revealed-as-christian-scientists-20150414-1mkmj8.html

    And Morrison refused to name it!

    I am quite surprised at that as, on the Jon Faine program on ABC radio yesterday, a person from the Christian Scientists phoned in and denied they were opposed to vaccination and pointed the finger at the Jehovas Witnesses. This seemed more plausible as they are the ones opposed to blood transfusions.

  26. I believe the FFA are taking nominations for who will play Tajikistan in Dushanbe for soccer World Cup qualifier. It’s an open nomination, anyone can apply. Show of hands…..anyone?

  27. Bonza

    [I’m slightly ignorant on local politics here]

    I would never have thought that I could (or should) vote in a UK GE. I’ve spent lots of time there but I not one of ‘them’. As far as I’m concerned it’s their business.

  28. [Here in Australia it’s a state tax collected by the Feds to avoid such an issue.]

    Meh here it is a federal tax, legislated and collected by the Federal Government, which because of a lack of courage and integrity, particularly amoungst Liberal politicians is called a state tax, this calling the GST a state tax is what is known as a lie.

  29. The geek on twitter

    [Sorry to be cynical but I just don’t buy these stoushes:
    Heffernan – Robb on #TPP
    Hockey – Costello on #Tax
    etc
    Good cop, bad cop routine?]

    I tend to agree

  33. WWP

    The idea that the GST is a state tax is a myth started by Peter Costello to disguise the fact that he was treasurer in Australias highest taxing government.

    And as I understand it the idea that the states have to agree to changes is another myth.

    If the federal Government can get the legislation passed it can change the GST, agreements or not.

    Given the way the incumbents have backflipped on just about everything, anything is possible.

  34. bemused

    Did you hear you the Faine’s interview with state vic Labor Health Minister re the Peter Mac Hospiital this morning? If so, what did you make of it?

  38. 659

    Coverage of the rate capping issue seems unduly accepting of the premise that the Government will be able to cap rates. The Greens and the Coalition are opposed and together they constitute a majority in the Legislative Council. Unless the Coalition backflip (or the Greens backflip, but that is less likely) it will not get passed.

  40. Social media marketing disaster unfolding

    [Supermarket giant Woolworths has pulled down a website called ‘Fresh in our memories’ which was the centre of its major Anzac Day marketing push after a being accused of exploiting the events of Gallipoli for profit.
    The name of the site was a play on the supermarket’s tagline ‘Fresh food people’, and allowed users to generate Facebook cover photos and profile pictures which feature the words ‘Fresh in our memory’ and the company’s logo.
    Woolworths tonight said it “regretted” that the site caused offence and confirmed it has taken it down.

    Tonight users including Ten newsreader Sandra Sully and Fairfax columnist Peter Fitsimons have taken to social media accusing the supermarket of “making puns” out of the Anzac legacy and cashing in on Anzac Day.

    Among imagery made available on the site is a Facebook profile cover photo users can download featuring a digger carrying a dead comrade through the battlefield emblazoned with the words “Lest we forget” and featuring the Woolworths logo and a link to the website.
    Woolworths is also a principle sponsor of the Camp Gallipoli events taking place across the country to mark Anzac Day.]

    http://mumbrella.com.au/woolworths-pulls-fresh-in-our-memory-website-after-being-accused-of-exploiting-anzac-legacy-287324

  41. Victoria

    But I bet if Sales had asked him about marriage counselling he would have had no problem with answers.

    The thought that Andrews is defence minister boggles the mind, but given the rest of the talent in the Abbott ministry it may not be that surprising

  44. [686
    rossmcg

    Detention centre guards suspended over photo with Pauline Hanson at rally

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/14/detention-centre-guards-suspended-over-photo-with-pauline-hanson-at-rally%5D

    The explanation for it is that at the borders, Immigration policy has become militarised. The interception and capture of (Irregular Maritime Arrivals) IMAs is a matter for units of the ADF; likewise their detention is a para-military project.

    Those people now held in detention by or on behalf of the Australian Government should be classed somewhere between non-combatant prisoners of war and political prisoners.

    Since they have not been charged with any offence, IMAs are not awaiting trial. Their claims to be refugees or otherwise will generally not be assessed. IMAs are not even policy discards. They are trump cards who have been subjected to arbitrary arrest and punitive incarceration for political reasons alone.

  45. victoria@684

    bemused

    Did you hear you the Faine’s interview with state vic Labor Health Minister re the Peter Mac Hospiital this morning? If so, what did you make of it?

    My biggest problem is I am usually doing other things, including being on the phone, so I tend to catch just short grabs of such things. So it was in this case so I really couldn’t comment.

  46. [Social media marketing disaster unfolding]

    It’s amazing how many corporates don’t recognise first and foremost that Gallipoli was nothing short of a human tragedy. Therefore there is no marketing to be leveraged off that. End of story.

  48. 686 and 694

    Their behaviour in Brisbane pretty much sums up the contempt I have for the Defence ‘establishment’

    Ignorant morons.

  49. Victoria

    Andrews is an expert at recitation of pre-prepared puff. They could just as easily asked him to send in his speech and just edit Sales’s questions into it. There was little relationship between questions and answers.

    Sales looked like the cat that got the cream when he wouldn’t name the ISIS leader and then she did.

    Such insightful and persistent questioning. Tapping into the very core of our political and governmental shambles. I’m sure all the viewers were sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for the answer.

    Pity she can’t ask her in depth questions about matters of issue eg about the subs or the nbn or the Abbotteers’ current manipulation of the GST debate.

    Bring back Sarah Ferguson or Norman Gunston ……. proper interviewers.

  50. Briefly

    The thing that struck me in reading about the guards and their social media posts is that how did they ever get the jobs? Apart from their racist views they don’t seem to be very bright

    Many seem to be ex ADF so are probably qualified to be guards but what of the selection processes? I would have thought an experienced HR person would have sussed out a RWNJ fairly quickly.

    Of maybe the,people doing the hiring didn’t even try because they are similarly inclined.

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