Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll continues its recent volatile form to deliver the Coalition its best result since September.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian gives the Coalition its best result since September, with Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 comparing with 55-45 last time. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 41%, Labor is down two to 37%, and the Greens are down one to 11%. Amid a general picture of weakening personal ratings for Bill Shorten, Newspoll has him down three on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 47% after a spike in his favour a fortnight ago. Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down two to 61% – dismal as those figures are, they’re his best since Australia Day. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has closed from 44-33 to 41-36.

Also today, Morgan’s latest poll combining face-to-face and SMS polling from the past two weekends has Labor up on last fortnight and level with the fortnight before, leaving the intervening poll looking like something of an aberration. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% with the Coalition down one to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point to 11% and 1.5%. There’s a big shift to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, their lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 56-44, but a surprisingly modest one on previous election preferences, from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46, some of the difference evidently being obscured by rounding.

UPDATE (Essential Research): To reinforce the point that polling moves in mysterious ways, the normally sedate Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has moved two points to Labor, putting its lead at 54-46. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down to an all-time low of 1%. The poll also finds a big downturn in the assessment of Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer even since the months after the budget, with approval at 27% (down eight points since August) and disapproval at 51% (up seven). Chris Bowen has all but caught up with him as preferred Treasurer, Hockey’s 34-23 lead in August now at 26-25. Relatedly, there is a poor result on economic sentiment, with 27% describing the state of the Australian economy as good (down 10% since last August) and 33% as poor (up 7%).

A question on data retention suggests dissatisfaction with the protections provided in the government’s policy, with 58% believing a warrant should be required to access data in any case, only 10% considering it should only apply to journalists and 12% believing no warrant should be required. Also featured are a semi-regular question on climate change, thought to be caused by human activity by 54% (down three since December) with 31% favouring the skeptical option (up two); 52% professing greater concern than two years ago (up one) with 8% less concerned (down one); 45% favouring incentives for renewable energy in response (up five since September), 12% an emissions trading scheme (up two), 10% the government’s direct action policy (steady) and 11% believing no action is required (steady). The 20% renewable energy target is thought too high by 8% (down five since last July), too low by 33% (up four) and about right by 32% (down four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,293 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. Confessions

    Yep and watching Mega George last night I thought Howard was about the least interesting person he has interviewed for the series

    I mean I know I disliked Howard intensely but I thought most of the other participants have been prepared to be frank, to tell it like it was.

    I don’t think JWH really got the idea of the program.

    Maybe it’s just me

  3. Any federal govt minister visited Elcho Isl yet after being battered by two cyclones, or are they concentrating all their energies for the more significant pictorial opportunities that come with Vanuatu and now the German plane crash?

  9. rossmcg:

    Interesting.

    My own opinion watching Howard’s foray back into the public sphere after Abbott has crashed and burned strikes me more about him ensuring he’s forever seen as the best former PM than any altruism towards the Liberal party or his supposed protege.

    That may influence his decision about speaking frankly.

  11. The fact that economic growth is struggling to return to pre-global financial crisis (GFC) figures.

    Rather than suggest fiscal stimulus and spending, and still trapped within the mantra of living within its means, the government seems unsure of what to do to improve growth and reduce unemployment.

  12. [The ALP is finished for the next election because of this godawful decision. If it doesn’t start actually standing for something, they’re going to be finished for a lot longer.]

    Hate to say this Privi, but most people don’t care and will not notice this “decision”. The PM taking joyrides and Julie rolling her eyes on camera are much more important. It is key to people like yourself, not to the general public, so I think ALP are safe from the backlash.

  14. nappin,

    They’ll never be safe from the faux foot tappers, the fickle finger pointers and the fearful fools of the Greens movement.

    I say begone boringly batshit blusterers.

  18. Abbott telling the media that “a ratio of debt to GDP at about 50 or 60% is a pretty good result looking around the world”.

    After continually referencing the debt situation to that under the Howard government, now he was comparing it to the rest of the world.

  19. nappin

    Privi seems to have gone after a very busy day in PB

    I think he exposed himself, metaphorically speaking of course, when he declared himself a swinging voter.

    I suspect he is nothing of the sort. I reckon he is a Tory whose aim by appearing to oppose the meta data legislation was to label Shorten and Labor as weak for not opposing it and therefore weak in general.

    Bit tin foil hat I know … But …

  30. Raaraa

    Dunno if Lamming’s stunt was mentioned here but the interesting thing to me was that I understand he was dobbed to the speaker by fellow Lib Sarah Henderson

  31. I think the sillier of the trolls here (ESJ, TBA) must be getting a little nervous. They seem to be ramping up the puerile posts to a large extent lately.

  34. privo izuma
    I believe you. Most of the politicians don’t. They have been told this is necessary and most believe it. You say Shorten should have stood up to this. Well, he won’t if he believes the law enforcement bods. And I reckon he does.

  35. rossmcg @1169 – I am wary of judging anyone’s political leanings when on line. In a world of trolls,lawyers and marketing people I either watch the interactions to try and understand the intention, or scroll past when it becomes boring.

  37. > rossmcg : I think he exposed himself, metaphorically speaking of course, when he declared himself a swinging voter. I suspect he is nothing of the sort. I reckon he is a Tory whose aim by appearing to oppose the meta data legislation was to label Shorten and Labor as weak for not opposing it and therefore weak in general.

    Oh puhlease. I voted for Hawke 90, Hewson 93, Howard 96, Howard 98, Beazley 01 (and will never vote lib again after children overboard), Latham 04, Rudd 07, Gillard 10, Gillard 13.

    The technical definition of swinging voter. I will note vote for this ALP government again after they’ve sold us out on the meta-data legislation. They’ve proven themselves weak as wet-tissue paper, and they deserve everything that’s coming to them.

  39. I wouldnt have expected to listen to Brandis and Ludlum and conclude that Brandis was the well informed one and the one with integrity.

    I had thought previously that there would be a good anti metadata argument and we just weren’t seeing it here. Now it seems clear there just isn’t a good argument.

    Although I did think perhaps the proportionality principle they are hashing over would justify perhaps restricting the use of metadata to indictable criminal offences. Seems it could apply in theory to very minor offences and brandis had a pretty lame avoidance answer to that issue.

  42. nappin 1170

    No….eventually the debt rhetoric and confected budget emergency scare campaign was going to come back and bite them on the a*se

  43. ross,

    It’s like they wait until they know who’s wife matches the car keys they selected before they have any opinion.

  45. How can you be a swinging voter if you have a decade plus declaration never to vote Liberal again?

    Or does the National Party not count in that?

  46. My experience though is that real swinging voters don’t declare themselves. They like to keep people guessing.

    Not so much guessing as it being nobody else’s business. To be fair, privi has outed his/her voting record and I have no reason to doubt it. But the passion expressed in doing that, and in arguing the issues of metadata, are not shared by the voting populous. They do not care, and that too, is their own business.

  47. > My experience though is that real swinging voters don’t declare themselves. They like to keep people guessing.

    Yeah well, I think a non-swinging voter clearly doesn’t know what a swinging voter thinks at all.

    I vote for evidence based policy. I agreed with the first GST that hewson put forward, and I will forever blame Keating, great treasurer though he was, for the small-target strategy of getting into government. I never forgave him for the way he demonized good policy that he agreed with for political gain against hewson.

    I didn’t particularly like Howard, but thought he was ok until he subsumed one-nation into the party by stealing their crazies, and demonizing refugees. I even voted Latham because I hated him that much for that.

    Rudd was good. Gillard was effective, but shouldn’t have pushed him in the first place as a result of a couple of bad polls. She paid the price, but it wasn’t from me.

    But this wet piece of tissue paper that is Bill Shorten has sold us out, and he’s proven he doesn’t have the balls to be PM.

  49. Facists at the gate
    _____________
    Counterpunch looks at another side of the Greek crisis …the threat to democracy by the fascist New Dawn,which bears a strking rememblance to the Nazi Party in the 1930ies…and now is seen to have links with the security forces and wealthy shipping owners who like the sound of it’s far right policies

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