Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll continues its recent volatile form to deliver the Coalition its best result since September.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian gives the Coalition its best result since September, with Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 comparing with 55-45 last time. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 41%, Labor is down two to 37%, and the Greens are down one to 11%. Amid a general picture of weakening personal ratings for Bill Shorten, Newspoll has him down three on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 47% after a spike in his favour a fortnight ago. Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down two to 61% – dismal as those figures are, they’re his best since Australia Day. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has closed from 44-33 to 41-36.

Also today, Morgan’s latest poll combining face-to-face and SMS polling from the past two weekends has Labor up on last fortnight and level with the fortnight before, leaving the intervening poll looking like something of an aberration. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% with the Coalition down one to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point to 11% and 1.5%. There’s a big shift to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, their lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 56-44, but a surprisingly modest one on previous election preferences, from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46, some of the difference evidently being obscured by rounding.

UPDATE (Essential Research): To reinforce the point that polling moves in mysterious ways, the normally sedate Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has moved two points to Labor, putting its lead at 54-46. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down to an all-time low of 1%. The poll also finds a big downturn in the assessment of Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer even since the months after the budget, with approval at 27% (down eight points since August) and disapproval at 51% (up seven). Chris Bowen has all but caught up with him as preferred Treasurer, Hockey’s 34-23 lead in August now at 26-25. Relatedly, there is a poor result on economic sentiment, with 27% describing the state of the Australian economy as good (down 10% since last August) and 33% as poor (up 7%).

A question on data retention suggests dissatisfaction with the protections provided in the government’s policy, with 58% believing a warrant should be required to access data in any case, only 10% considering it should only apply to journalists and 12% believing no warrant should be required. Also featured are a semi-regular question on climate change, thought to be caused by human activity by 54% (down three since December) with 31% favouring the skeptical option (up two); 52% professing greater concern than two years ago (up one) with 8% less concerned (down one); 45% favouring incentives for renewable energy in response (up five since September), 12% an emissions trading scheme (up two), 10% the government’s direct action policy (steady) and 11% believing no action is required (steady). The 20% renewable energy target is thought too high by 8% (down five since last July), too low by 33% (up four) and about right by 32% (down four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,293 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 26
1 … 24 25 26

  3. [Having opposed Labor at every turn in the bid for a UN Security Council seat it seems that Julie Bishop has a liking for New York]

    Course she does. How unsurprisement.

    I feel like dredging up all those things she and Abbott said in opposition of Labor’s efforts. As you say, such hypocrisy.

  7. They usually voted Labor until Labor got serious about winning elections.

    Was the Labor leadership’s decision on mass surveillance more about political expediency than conscientous service to the people?

    The sense I get from Labor supporters here at PB is that they don’t want to say thhis outright – they will flirt with defending the decision on public interest grounds – but their hearts are not in it because they don’t really care about the merits. They see their role as adjusting to a party decision and waving the flag. Everyone needs to give their brain a break now and then but it would be great if a Labor supporter could take their brain out of hibernation on this issue and present a coherent case on the privacy implications of metadata retention and why Australian will benefit from these laws when no other nation has.

  8. [ I agree. Never gonna happen though. ]
    it’s just an awful situation and so unlikely with all those union people representing ordinary Aussies

  12. Nicholas,

    [The sense I get from Labor supporters here at PB is that they don’t want to say thhis outright…but their hearts are not in it because they don’t really care about the merits. They see their role as adjusting to a party decision and waving the flag. Everyone needs to give their brain a break now and then but it would be great if a Labor supporter could take their brain out of hibernation on this issue…]

    A thoroughly compelling argument, Nicholas. Bravo.

  13. UN Security Council

    Abbott was against the idea before he was equivocal and finally apocalyptic when he warned on the eve of the vote that, despite all the expenditure and dislocation, it would be “absolutely disastrous” if we didn’t win this ballot’.

    Losing the ballot – like missing out on the World Cup soccer – might have been a disappointment, but an “absolute disaster’’?

  14. [The sense I get from Labor supporters here at PB is that they don’t want to say thhis outright – they will flirt with defending the decision on public interest grounds – but their hearts are not in it because they don’t really care about the merits. They see their role as adjusting to a party decision and waving the flag. Everyone needs to give their brain a break now and then but it would be great if a Labor supporter could take their brain out of hibernation on this issue and present a coherent case on the privacy implications of metadata retention and why Australian will benefit from these laws when no other nation has.]

    The Labor at all costs supporters on PB take their brains out of hibernation?
    Why think when the party can do it for you?

  15. The level of Green paranoia here is reaching new heights.

    Buffalo Springfield got it right in the words of the song…

    “Paranoia strikes deep.
    Into your life it will creep.
    It starts when you’re always afraid.”

  16. adrian,

    [The Labor at all costs supporters on PB take their brains out of hibernation?
    Why think when the party can do it for you?]

    You’ve matched Nicholas’s intellectual rigour with that gem. Kudos.

  17. On the day Australia takes over as President of the UN Security Council, Tony Abbott has summed up in a sentence why he is not fit to represent Australia in any international forum.

    When talking about the serious situation in Syria this morning, Mr Abbott said:

    “It’s not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that’s why it is very important that we don’t make a very difficult situation worse.”

    (Tony Abbott, Insiders 1 September, 2013)

    This statement alone speaks volumes about Mr Abbott’s foreign policy capacity.

    Let’s not forget Mr Abbott is the man who said Australia’s successful bid for a place on the UN Security Council was a waste of time.

    “Labor’s obsession with winning a temporary seat on the UN Security Council is warping our priorities.”

  19. We still do not know how much all of this will cost or precisely what data about Australian internet users will be retained, but it seems that a huge amount of money will be invested to set up a scheme which is likely to be ineffective in keeping us safe, yet will be extremely intrusive of our privacy online.

    It also seems that experience from other parts of the world, especially the European Union, whose own mass data retention scheme was invalidated last year for being a disproportionate interference with the privacy of millions of law-abiding Europeans, has been completely ignored.

    http://www.swinburne.edu.au/media-centre/news/2015/03/expert-panel-give-their-thoughts-on-metadata-retention-report.html

    Angela Daly, Research Fellow in Media and Communications Law at Swinburne University of Technology, makes a compelling point. The loss of privacy is grossly disportionate to any national security gain. Europe’s scheme was overturned on privacy grounds.

    What about the risk of hacking?

    Just last week, Telstra’s chief security officer reiterated the scheme will create a honey pot for hackers.

    http://www.afr.com/technology/data-retention-bill-changes-fall-short-law-institute-of-victoria-20150322-1m3w12

    The protection for journalists is dodgy because it would be an offence for the journalist or anyone else to reveal to anyone that a warrant was sought; because the definition of journalist is unclear; and because it can be easily circumvented by accessing the metadata of people the journalist may have been in contact with.

    There are no protections for communications between doctors and patients, and between lawyers and clients.

    The vast store of metadata will be subject to subpoenas by civil litigants.

    The law is not justified by any public good and its harms are severe.

  20. Having quietly watched the debate from the sideline, I’m now to cloak myself in the partisan myopia of which we are accused, and rest my weary soul for the night.

    Adieu.

  21. [You’ve matched Nicholas’s intellectual rigour with that gem. Kudos.]

    Why thanks Jake. I have no doubt of your expertise in the area of intellectual rigour.

  22. paapstef,

    Australians have proven they are incapable of not posting self incriminating selfies. Ludlum’s clutching at straws if he thinks they’d be able to take instruction about managing their own meta data.

  23. I really admire all these ALP supporters who have such touching faith in the motives of this government, as opposed to independent experts.

    You truly are aspiration to us all.

  24. Next time I hear one of these intellectual heavyweights criticise the Abbott government, I shall comfort myself with that at least they can be trusted with the security of our personal data.

  26. Nicholas@1207

    They usually voted Labor until Labor got serious about winning elections.


    Was the Labor leadership’s decision on mass surveillance more about political expediency than conscientous service to the people?

    The sense I get from Labor supporters here at PB is that they don’t want to say thhis outright – they will flirt with defending the decision on public interest grounds – but their hearts are not in it because they don’t really care about the merits. They see their role as adjusting to a party decision and waving the flag. Everyone needs to give their brain a break now and then but it would be great if a Labor supporter could take their brain out of hibernation on this issue and present a coherent case on the privacy implications of metadata retention and why Australian will benefit from these laws when no other nation has.

    Oh come on. I am nothing less than a Labor supporter and I posted that scenario the day the vote was taken in parliament.

    I did not say, afair, what my judgement was, but I posted an analysis of how the ALP was using political pragmatism, and how I believed that opposing the legislation would probably lead to a Lindt Cafe type incident, just prior to the next election, quickly followed by ‘proof’ that the rejected meta data laws would have prevented the tragic loss of life.

  28. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 20m 20 minutes ago
    Prediction (with little confidence): If Abbott survives as leader he wins the next election, just. Avoiding the last one term loss, in 1931.]

    Big call, esp with Abbott as leader.

  29. You’ve matched Nicholas’s intellectual rigour with that gem.

    Jake, you’ve taxed your brain even with that remark. You could maintain your intellectual torpor more easily if you saved the words “Me too” in a Notepad file on your desktop. Copy it and paste it below every post by Zoomster or Briefly.

  30. I just come here for the satirical edge, made more intense by the clubby atmosphere, not to mention the complete absence of hubris.

    Or as Darren Hanlon would say: ‘My words were just some things I said,
    Only some were misinterpreted.’

    I guess the tune helps…

  31. I wouldnt have expected to listen to Brandis and Ludlum and conclude that Brandis was the well informed one and the one with integrity.

    A tax lawyer talking about integrity. Apart from the advantage of surprise what do you bring to this topic?

  32. just remember to look up Sntr Ludlams tips to avoid metadata adrian or the scumbag Lib killers of everything Australian will be on to you

  35. Looking forward to the Piece on redress for sexual abuse on the RC on Lateline. In particular todays revalations in the RC that gov and the big churches have washed their hands of responsibility

  36. Thanks for the tip paaptsef. I was expecting a quality jibe from you, and of course you did not disappoint; although your syntax lacks a certain eloquence, but after all who am I to talk.

  37. [Looking forward to the Piece on redress for sexual abuse on the RC on Lateline. In particular todays revalations in the RC that gov and the big churches have washed their hands of responsibility]

    This is disgraceful. Hopefully it will be something that the ALP will get stuck into the government over…

  39. victoria:

    He does seem to oscillate according to media vibe. It wasn’t so long ago he was certain the Liberals would dump Abbott. And here we are today.

  41. [The Labor at all costs supporters on PB take their brains out of hibernation?]

    Technically it’s aestivation rather than hibernation as we’re coming out of summer.

  43. Rossmore:

    The transfer of STDs and unwanted pregnancy via metadata is something I’m just hanging out to witness. There is hope for the reproductively challenged!

  44. TONY ABBOTT AND JULIE BISHOP THOUGHT A SEAT ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL WAS A WASTE OF TIME

    ABBOTT & BISHOP ” A UN SECURITY COUNCIL SEAT NOT IN OUR INTEREST”

  45. fess

    PVO amd Speers review QT every afternoon. I barely watch QT these days. BBIshop runs interference and is so biased. Abbott and Co are simply appalling. Yet PVO and Speers give the play of the day to either Abbott Hockey and anyone on the coalition side. As i have said many times, PVO does a good impersonation of a partisan hack

  47. victoria:

    I’m at work while QT is on, so can’t watch, but from the little I’ve seen since BBishop’s Speakership, it is a circus and not worth the effort.

  48. Rossmore

    Agreed. Save to say that rhey have infiltrated every macdonald and hungry jack store. Television in store is tuned in to sky news channel. Add the murdoch papers available to read in store, you can see what they are attempting to do…

  49. The only way I can see the Liberals winning with Abbott

    -Petrol goes under and stays under a $1
    -Interest rates remain super low
    -The next budget is a big improvement on the last budget
    -The economy picks up
    -The ALP make a big whoospie
    -Positive redistribution in NSW

Comments Page 25 of 26
1 … 24 25 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *