Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change this week on voting intention from Essential Research, but further questions suggest the Abbott government’s anti-terrorism measures may be striking a chord.

No change this week on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which has the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 41%, 9% and 2%, with Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Further questions relate to terrorism, and they offer rare good news for Tony Abbott, whose handling of the threat has 46% approval and 33% disapproval. It would also be to his advantage that fully 75% of respondents believe the threat has increased over the last few years, with only 2% opting for decreased, and that considerably more respondents think the government should be spending more on anti-terrorism measures (39%) than less (12%), with 56% favouring more restrictions versus only 28% who believe current laws strike the right balance. Less good for the government is the finding that 34% approve of the Human Rights Commission’s performance versus only 22% disapproval, although 44% allowed that they didn’t know. Another interesting finding is that 48% would support a national ban on greyhound racing, with only 26% opposed. The poll also finds that 57% take a favourable view of multiculturalism versus 29% for negative, and that 67% think racism is a problem in Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777@70

    Private schools are selective. They cherry-pick. The more kids go to private schools, the more disadvantage concentrates in the public sector.

    The ones I know about are desperate for bums on seats. If you can afford the fees and your child is a decent human being you can get them in.

  2. Taylormade

    Obviously this was included in the glossy brochure

    [UNEMPLOYMENT rates in Geelong are at a 15-year high and are the worst in Victoria, new data reveals.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics has found Geelong’s unemployment level stood at 10.5 per cent in July, towering above all Victorian regions as the state average reached 6.6 per cent.

    While the high-profile job losses have come in the traditionally male manufacturing sector, the ABS has identified a rising level of women being left jobless in Geelong.

    Female unemployment was found to be at 10.4 per cent — the worst level since April 2007 and almost double the average for 2013.]

  3. CTaR1
    Yes. Geoffrey is a dab hand with the camera. He has been kind enough to give some useful advice over the years.

  4. Making it easier to spear dud teachers would go along way to improving education. Trots and Sparts have no place in the school room.

  5. Insight should be interesting.

    All about the current woes of PM Rabbott and asks the question on what it takes to be successful in the top job.

  6. I was a bit taken with Sabra’s idea of collegiality, Tony treating Sussan Ley by letting her tell of the demise of the co payment. I’ll bet she was stoked. Couldn’t be bothered watching Leigh & Mal trade compliments.

  7. The Liberal policies are a bit like click beetles.

    Touch one, it goes ‘click’, and another policy has gone arse over tit.

  8. Taylormade. I don’t believe the 34,000 premises connected to the NBN in 18 months. It has taken me 3 weeks to get the NBN connected to one flat in a new building. The hardware is supposed to be in place (including brand new last century copper wire from the basement to the flat – something I cannot still believe they did. They must have believed Turnbull that copper wire is the way to go – none of the silly fibre to the flat wall plate that those know-nothing ALP wanted).

    But I have to deal with building managers, building owners, property managers, Opticomm (who have the monopoly in providing the Internet to this building), and an ISP. I have spent about 20 hours on the phone trying to get it organised, but no-one knows what is going on and blame someone else for the reason it doesn’t work.

    I’ll be on the phone again first thing to see if I can get something to happen. It is so frustrating and costly.

    The communication minister is a fool and has really dropped the ball on the NBN.

  9. I’ve seen a heap of twisted logic here over the years, but to equate ‘dud’ teachers with political belief ranks amongst the oddest comment for a long time.

    The converse should ring true I suppose…all those teachers with non-Trot politics must, by definition, be brilliant.

  10. Edwina StJohn

    As this debate has been on-going for as long as I can remember maybe its time to look at improving the teacher training at the source of the training.

    But that would require Pyne do some work, which does seem a bit beyond the boy. Just increasing university fees and reducing research grants isn’t going to improve standards.

  11. PeeBee

    […The communication minister is a fool and has really dropped the ball on the NBN.
    …]

    That is a bit harsh, IMHO.
    Mr Turnbull has invested his own money wisely in FTTH in France so he can’t be all that stupid.

  12. Darn @ 99
    Wang’s said he’ll vote the party line (i.e. against) notwithstanding his private views. I suspect that Clive Palmer’s got him by the short and curlies. Like Jacqui Lambie, Glenn “The Brick With Eyes” Lazarus could – if he was so minded – leave the party and still have a pretty good chance of being re-elected as an Independent. Wang not so much.

  13. Thanks for the weekly info William.

    I was going to say the Ipsos polls are so far apart you can’t say when any movement it detects occurred. Looking at the radical movement in the last Newspoll and the duly more subdued bump in the corresponding Essential, some movement did occur in the week before those polls.

    That was the time the spill had been resolved in Abbott’s favor, but was also about the time most of the MSM decided Abbott was gone.

    Otherwise, the news cycle that week was as bad as ever for the LNP, and the deployment of fear and terror was at the ongoing high settings.

    If the swing to the LNP is because people think Abbott is gone then polling should drift back to the ALP while he stays. I am also looking forward to the polls when he is dumped. Apart from the LNP friendly Ipsos, none of these polls seem very worrying for the ALP.

  14. Edwina StJohn@104

    Making it easier to spear dud teachers would go along way to improving education. Trots and Sparts have no place in the school room.

    So you want to introduce ‘berufsverbot’?
    Figures.

  15. [That is a bit harsh, IMHO.
    Mr Turnbull has invested his own money wisely in FTTH in France so he can’t be all that stupid.]

    could have been a tip from a mate could have been a no brainer he isn’t stupid but unless you have warren buffets record share trading isnt an indicator.

  16. I thought PUP were voting against govt bills until Abbott’s mob had stopped acting so chaotic and dysfunctional?

    How unsurprisement that Clive yet again flips and flops on recent statements.

  17. From this morning
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/clive-palmer-revokes-move-to-abstain-on-bills/story-fn59nqld-1227245906846
    [Clive Palmer revokes move to abstain on bills
    AAP
    March 03, 2015 10:34AM

    CLIVE Palmer has declared Prime Minister Tony Abbott “back in control” and says his party will not now impose a blanket abstention on bills.

    Mr Palmer declared on Monday that his two Palmer United Party crossbench senators would abstain from voting on any government legislation until the Liberal party’s infighting ended.

    The PUP leader now says he is encouraged that there was no attempt to remove Mr Abbott on Monday night and that there was no spill motion before the party room meeting this morning

    “So you can assume the Prime Minister is back in control,” Mr Palmer told Sky News.

    “We will be looking at legislation on its merits in the Senate today.”

    Asked about the blanket abstention, he said: “It has been revoked.”]

  18. Thanks DisplayName & William

    William, sorry my post was a bit confused, I meant that last week was the bounce to the coalition and this week was like the week before that which was prior to the coalition bounce (pre-bounce) so this week’s numbers would be good for labor

  19. We all know the human value in an old voice rich in wisdom and grace. Of those who have lived long and learnt much from their experiences and observations. We seek their guidance and instinctively grant them our respect.

    It is such a shame that Bronwyn Bishop is not one of these people. At a time when the Australian parliament is begging for depth, Bishop brings immaturity and shallowness.

    I wonder what the wise old ones among us must think of it all.

  20. confessions@117

    I thought PUP were voting against govt bills until Abbott’s mob had stopped acting so chaotic and dysfunctional?

    How unsurprisement that Clive yet again flips and flops on recent statements.

    Your comprehension is not really very good is it?

    Dio Wang was wanting to support Education changes but is toeing the party line at big Clive’s behest and opposing.

  21. Victoria

    There will be always be whingers and moaners such as yourself preaching doom and gloom. Why don’t you drag yourself away from your keyboard and come down for a visit one day. Heaps to do such as National Wool Museum, Deakin cafe, bollard walk, coffee down the waterfront, Torquay surf beaches, bellarine wineries, you could make a real day of it. Be sure to check out all the new family friendly housing estates out at Armstrong Creek. But recommend you stay clear of Richard Marles Corio electorate out north though, high crime, high unemployment and all very neglected out that way.

    Only joking, yes Geelong has its issues, unemployment being a big one, but the city is doing a pretty good job in challening circumstances i reckon. Is not all doom and gloom as many have predicted.

  22. Leroy:

    Great. So that pledge from Clive lasted all of one day.

    Why do people continue to take this man at face value?

  23. Just catching Peter Fitzsimmons, a Knox old boy, on ‘The Drum’ replay, on the Knox Grammar scandal. He’s angry.

  24. ony Abbott’s announcement to deploy 300 Australian army instructors to Iraq by the middle of this year reminds one of Talleyrand’s observations of the Bourbon monarchs: he has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing since the invasion in 2003.

    As much as it pains me to say this, the prime minister and other western interventionists – including (of all people) Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek – are showing the same contempt for the lessons of history.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/03/it-pains-me-to-say-it-but-abbott-has-learned-nothing-about-iraq-hes-taken-the-islamic-states-bait?CMP=share_btn_tw

  25. Probably not worth mentioning, MT on 7.30

    Asked if he was too left-wing on social policy for many Coalition MPs to tolerate as leader, Mr Turnbull said: “The reality is that Tony Abbott and my position on gay marriage is very close. Both of us believe the party room should decide whether there should be a free vote, a conscience vote, so-called … The idea that there’s this massive gulf between us is quite imaginary and it’s been put around by people frankly who I suspect don’t bare either Tony or me a lot of good will.”

    Asked whether he lacks the ticker to challenge Mr Abbott, Mr Turnbull replied: “My ticker is in very good shape.”

    So Mal has the ticker ( to take leadership, well that’s good) & there’s not mich difference between Tony & Mal on Gay Marriage, well who asked about gay marriage, is this Mals idea ofpointinh up the only common ground with Tony.

    Hope Mal keeps supporting Tony , To y will feel more secure tonight I’m sure

  26. Public money is often used for services that are only available to select groups, such as mining companies, arts groups, the AFL, Olympic sportspeople etc etc

    Public subsidy for mining companies, the AFL, and elite athletes is unsupported by a compelling public purpose. Just like subsidy for non-government schools.

    A very impressive range of art galleries and activities are available to the entire public regardless of capacity to pay. There is a strong case for public subsidy there.

    If a non-government school makes it services available to all comers, just like the non-selective government schools, then there’s a case for subsidy.

    Helping yourself to the students who are easiest to educate because of the advantages they have in life, while leaving the other students to the public schools is not at all helpful to the public system. It actually hurts the public system.

    I don’t begrudge you your right to send your kids to a private school. I’m saying you should pay full price for a private service which weakens the public system by distorting the demographic characteristics of schools, siphoning off some of the best teachers educated at public universities, and concentrating the hardest cases in a chronically under-resourced public system. The negative societal impacts of your decision to go private should be reflected in the price you pay. The higher the price, the less inclined people will be to accept the poor value for money offered by private schools.

  27. Turnbull on 730: “we are all behind the leader, every single one of us.” Of course you are, carrying knives, baseball bats, pitchforks…

    [Mr Turnbull told the ABC’s 7.30 program that some of the commentary and speculation over the past few weeks was “utterly wild”.

    “The real world is the 102 members of the party room and I can assure you that all of us are absolutely committed to giving Australia sound, responsible, good government,” he said.

    “We support Tony Abbott as our leader, he has the support of the party room.

    “Yes, there was a spill motion but it was not carried and we are all behind the leader, every single one of us.”

    He praised Mr Abbott as a courageous, intelligent, thoughtful and brave man, and said despite a perceived difference between them on some social issues, there were also many similarities.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-03/every-single-one-of-us-behind-pm-turnbull-says/6278406

  28. Natanyahoo’s arrogrance gets many a blast in DC
    _______________________
    Welcomed now by only the neo-cons war,mongers and the Repub hardliners,Natanyahoo is getting no welcome from Obama or Bidenor Kerry …none of who wants to see him…….or many in the Jewish community who are increasingly sceptical of the links between the Israelis and the US war industries,….who love the many wars in the M East
    Netanyahoo’s desperate moves now go to show how the tide has turned against the Jewish Lobby
    The US Conservative Mag. (see below) looks at the rapidly changing scene in the USA … as Natanyahoo’s US allies are forced on the defensive by Obama ,who wont see Natanyahoo

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/netanyahu-and-the-crumbling-israeli-lobby/

  29. Public schools are far better for society: they not only foster tolerance, they also foster competition, because they are the only true meritocracy in the education system.

    You get good marks because you study hard and do well. This is what wealthy parents fear: competition from the less well-off.

    Private schools are like an elite inner-party communist system: just coddle sub-intelligent sons and daughters of the elite, because of who they are, not how they actually perform. Hence their overriding focus on getting average scores up.

    Punters: use you noggins. Here’s the wrong question: does the school produces higher average tertiary entrance scores?

    Here’s the right question: does this school allow an academically bright child to do well and enter university?

    Takes all types you know.

  30. Well just got back and reading TBA is real 😆 territory

    You can tell even if he cannot read tweets he has not used the link and read the article. An article written by David Crowe of the Australian.

    The contribution of Latika Bourke was one word. Former. That is the person no longer works as a Liberal staffer by her tweet in response to David Crowe.

    TBA goes off about Fairfax articles proving ignorance at the least

  31. I don’t know there this idea that private schools cherry pick the best students. There are plenty of kids at my daughters school who have learning difficulties like dyslexia and autism spectrum disorder. When I talk to their parents they tell me they went to public schools that didn’t cater for their kids special needs andvfelt they owed it to their kid to go to a private school where they are much happier with the disability program.

  32. mexicanbeemer@98

    PeeBee

    True Auburn Secondary School would be a fair trip for someone coming from lats say Prahran or the southern part of Malvern.

    Of course the school also would be trying to pull students from its own area.

    To be fair, Stonnington actually has a relatively slim snake-like boundary and is probably one of the smaller cities to come out of the LGA mergers in the early 90s.

    Anybody living along Glenferrie Road is within tram distance to this school, though it will be a bit more of a stretch for students living on the Prahran or Malvern East end. Doesn’t matter much as most of the alma mattar probably consist of those living in the posh Malvern, Armadale and Kooyong areas, and judging by the traffic around the afternoon school pickup, it seems like many get driven to it anyway. (I know because working around there, driving is a pain around 3-4pm.)

  33. Sit up straight everyone, are you all sensible and decent?
    A quote from Dear Leader on the Richo+Jones show tonight:
    [But in the end, if you get on with government, if you’re straight with people, then a sensible and decent people will give you an appropriate political reward.’
    ]
    So my subtext of this is Abbott is not sure if he deserves us.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/03/03/abbott-faces-questions-from-richo–jones.html#sthash.ztVb6Qhy.dpuf

  34. I gather that in NSW there are some private schools that set very high marks to allow kids in. In SA the private schools don’t knock kids back. They take everyone.

  35. Leftye 139 … you’re going to upset the private school parents ….

    It pains to me say it but the UK and USA are streets ahead in the public education stakes:

    USA – Private schools =<1% of enrollments and no government subsidy. Doesnt matter how rich your parents are, you invariably send your kids to the local public school. Sure the schools are better in the more affluent suburbs, but at least there's a pretence of equal opportunity. The tertiary system is user pays and huge bastions of privilege evidence at the Ivy League Unis but at least there's a modicum of equal opportunity in the primary and secondary systems.

    UK – Private schools = 30% and a massive Government subsidy. Middle class Australia torn between the virtues of a ‘fair go’ and using every opportunity to give their kids an advantage over the bogans who dont have the means to purchase privilege.

    Be very ashamed Australia.

  36. so let me ask again. does america have ground troops in iraq? if so how many? what command will australians be under? any europeans? if australians fear terrorism then abbott is not a good policeman to have at their front gate. ‘open for business’ he says to every troublemaker. he has already run a red flag out to indonesian extremists. and shorten doesn’t have the rhetorical skills to cut the cloth on this issue. all worse criticisms of both leaders no longer funny. meanwhile MT shows off his limited knowledge of telecomms and LS gives him a massage.

  37. oops dont know what happened there – that post should have been…

    Leftye 139 … you’re going to upset the private school parents ….

    It pains to me say it but the UK and USA are streets ahead in the public education stakes:

    USA – Private schools =<1% of enrollments and no government subsidy. Doesnt matter how rich your parents are, you invariably send your kids to the local public school. Sure the schools are better in the more affluent suburbs, but at least there's a pretence of equal opportunity. The tertiary system is user pays and huge bastions of privilege evidence at the Ivy League Unis but at least there's a modicum of equal opportunity in the primary and secondary systems.

    UK – Private schools = < 3% of enrolments and most parents send their kids to the local public school. Clear distortions with the elite public schools like Eton capturing far more prestigious uni places than warranted but for most its a genuine level playing field.

    AUS – Private schools = 30% and a massive Government subsidy. Middle class Australia torn between the virtues of a ‘fair go’ and using every opportunity to give their kids an advantage over the bogans who dont have the means to purchase privilege.

    Be very ashamed Australia.

  38. Geez! I thought when people referred to Abbott saying that the copayment was “dead, buried and cremated” they were making a jocular reference to what Abbott said about Workchoices. But no, he actually said it.

    That means, like Workchoices, it will be back at the first opportunity, like the post election budget in 2017.

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