Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change this week on voting intention from Essential Research, but further questions suggest the Abbott government’s anti-terrorism measures may be striking a chord.

No change this week on the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, which has the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 41%, 9% and 2%, with Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47. Further questions relate to terrorism, and they offer rare good news for Tony Abbott, whose handling of the threat has 46% approval and 33% disapproval. It would also be to his advantage that fully 75% of respondents believe the threat has increased over the last few years, with only 2% opting for decreased, and that considerably more respondents think the government should be spending more on anti-terrorism measures (39%) than less (12%), with 56% favouring more restrictions versus only 28% who believe current laws strike the right balance. Less good for the government is the finding that 34% approve of the Human Rights Commission’s performance versus only 22% disapproval, although 44% allowed that they didn’t know. Another interesting finding is that 48% would support a national ban on greyhound racing, with only 26% opposed. The poll also finds that 57% take a favourable view of multiculturalism versus 29% for negative, and that 67% think racism is a problem in Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 18
1 2 3 … 18

  2. For every poll percentage move away from the government there will be an additional two flags appear at the Prime Ministerial podium. None will be removed in the event of a recovery but any deterioration thereafter will see additional flags.
    Wide angle lenses will be required at pressers by Credlin decree.

  3. TBA,

    How about you do your own homework for a change.

    As I said earlier, you have NFI You just mutter shouty inanities.

  6. 😆

    [Voters at a Goulburn candidates’ forum ahead of the March 28 state election were treated to an array of colourful characters and contentions, including the assertion that sodomy decriminalisation was to blame for the government’s plan to sell electricity poles and wires.

    Adrian van der Byl, of the Christian Democratic Party, told the crowd at the Goulburn Soldiers’ Club that the state’s descent into a “financial mess” had its genesis in Neville Wran’s 1984 decision to decriminalise sodomy.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-sodomy-decriminalisation-blamed-for-budget-woes-20150303-13swzg.html

  8. How many TBAs are there?

    The other day it was just cut and past Tory talking points, yesterday (I think) it actually engaged in policy debate and today it is alleging leftists at the ABC and Fairfax.

    Multiple personality syndrome at work or multiple persons?

  13. SB at 32

    The problem with your statement is that leadership speculation reignited on Thursday night, the very night that this particular poll took the field. In truth it never really went away, but both Seven and the ABC ran stories on Thursday night suggesting that Turnbull now had the numbers and that another leadership spill as early as this week was being discussed. As many people get their news from the evening tv bulletins, I think this is extremely important. Plus, as I said, the speculation hardly died off.

    I will also say again that there is evidence from February 2012 of what can happen in the polls when voters feel a leader they do not like may be going. Labor during that particular round of leadership turmoil received their best Newspoll figures in nearly 12 months.

    As it now appears Abbott will be around for the next few months, we should get a chance to test all theories, but I predict a drift back to Labor.

  14. Bob Hawke flagged this idea some time ago, stating it would be an absolute financial bonanza. I’m not so keen..

    [Australia has a unique opportunity to change the way we generate electricity. Chemist Dr Oscar Archer argues we should set up an international nuclear waste repository to be used as a source of fuel for next-generation nuclear technology.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/recycling-nuclear-waste-for-power-generation/6273854

  15. Billie, I heard there was a problem that way, and also in Southbank. Huge population growth and not one primary school. Apparently, the solution is to shunt the student population across suburbs to where some remaining schools are.

    BTW, I thought Melbourne High School was outside Stonnington, but I could be wrong. But bring s selective BOYS school. Girls and kids in year 7 or 8 cannot go there. Also only 3% of the smartest year 8 students across the state have a chance of getting in.

  17. Re the Private / Public school debate.

    For me Elite schools are private businesses where people choose to pay their excessive fees by sending their children to them. As such they should live and die by their ability to be profitable.

    With religious schools, they are set up by bodies that have tax exempt status. If they want public support maybe these bodies could start paying tax!

  18. Leaderdhip speculation has really only cooled since yesterday. At he time this and the Ispos poll were being taken, the buzz was that Malcolm had the numbers and would be PM by today or not much later.

  19. BIS, I think you will find all private schools are tax exempt. They are immune to the GST burden as well. For all I know, the salaries may have the top $30,000 tax free too (over and above the $18,200 tax free amount every one gets).

  20. Private schools are selective. They cherry-pick. The more kids go to private schools, the more disadvantage concentrates in the public sector.

    Barney @67: good point about the tax free status of religious schools.

  22. Private schools also are well known for doing a ‘cull’ of poor performing students at the Year 9 or 10 level to ensure that they continuallly rate highly in league tables regarding VCE / Year 12 scores.

    Interestingly in recent years at least in Victoria there was two government schools in regional Victoria that topped the tables – Bendigo Secondary College and Woomelang Secondary College.

    A colleague of mine went to a ‘exclusive’ girls school in inner Melbourne where they culled students below a certain level of achivement. Guess where they all ended up…

    In later years the culling process was relaxed as the school needed the $$$$ to deal with rising costs and competition from other schools in the area.

  23. Leigh Sales to interview Malcolm Turnbull. She won’t lay a glove on him I suspect. He has all his lines down pat.

    The only tension will be what subtle taunts will Turnbull work into his spiel tonight. My guess is he might tone it down for now given the recent polling. In his long-game, he’ll ramp it up again down the track when the polls turn bad again and Abbott does his next stupid thing.

  24. So Essential confirms the bleedin obvious ….. Orstrayn voters are 101% gullible when the conservos throw around a bit of fear and terror ….. they’re even prepared to give up basic human rights.

    No effing wonder Abbott won in 2013.

  25. Steve777 @68

    Exactly. Honestly I think all this talk that Tony is safe and the leadership talk has been put to bed is a bit of a put on. So one good poll magically eased the angst of the backbench? No, the ventures saw the body twich so they’re going to circle a little longer until they’re sure it’s actually dead.

  26. I’m trying to get my head around essential’s two week average……since it is is a two week average but published weekly, does that mean that this week’s polling would have to have been similar to two weeks ago for there to have been no change to the two week average? I.e. pre-coalition bounce?

  29. Leigh Sales will interview Malcolm Turnbull.

    I would estimate that would make it about 28 times out if the last 30 political interviews on 7.30 where it has been an LNP interview.

    I’ve said 28 out of 30 to be fair, but I can only remember Bowen in the last few months.

    Anyone else?

  31. [ Your snide aspersions aside, the rich private schools often receive more public funding then the (relatively) poor private schools.]

    That may be true in isolated circumstances but the statistics show that the amount of public funding per child is inversely related to the wealth of the school.

    Public>Catholic>private

    [ Public money is for public services. If a service is only available to households who can afford thousands of dollars in fees per year, it isn’t a public service.]

    Public money is often used for services that are only available to select groups, such as mining companies, arts groups, the AFL, Olympic sportspeople etc etc

  32. [I’m trying to get my head around essential’s two week average……since it is is a two week average but published weekly, does that mean that this week’s polling would have to have been similar to two weeks ago for there to have been no change to the two week average? I.e. pre-coalition bounce?]

    It does tell you that it can’t have been that different, but there’s a lot that can get concealed by rounding. I’m unclear as to why you’re inferring a pro-Coalition bounce from this, presumably in reference to this week’s numbers. Being privy to Essential’s weekly numbers, I can tell you there hasn’t been one. Quite the opposite in fact.

  34. Malcolm Turnbull just said on 7.30 that, “Just because something is not 100% effective doesn’t mean you do not do it.”

    Remember that one, peeps, to throw back in his face when he rejects something for not being totally effective. Which he will.

  36. Turnbull’s sleaze and slipperiness on full display as Leigh Sales coyly massages him.

    An example, as he gave evidence about how both he and Abbott are similarly good persons …….. “there is very little difference between our views on same sex marriage” says the snake oil salesman.

    Then he proceeded to list the many (procedural and irrelevant) ways they agree about SSM (agree with party decisions, both probably agree on conscience vote, etc).

    Finally the punch line …. the con artist’s minimisation …. understated, and in a deep serious voice with very solemn facial gestures …. “the only slight difference is that I agree with SSM and Tony doesn’t”. FFS!

    And like Abbott’s terror campaign, most Orstrayans viewing 7.30 would have been totally sucked in.

  38. [Jarryd Hayne has secured an NFL futures contract with the San Francisco 49ers, but still has work to do to prove himself worth the team’s punt.]

    I’m going to be very interested to see how he goes. The history of champion sportsmen who change sport is pretty poor.

  39. In my view there should be at least one secondary school in each local government area, in regards to Stonnington, I can’t think of any but I do know of one high school in Hawthorn which is a few hundred meters outside of Stonnington.

  41. [Goodbye 50% of Swiss emissions, by 2030.

    Switzerland has put its cards on the table, and formally let the UN know that it is committed to a climate deal in Paris later this year – the first country to do so.]
    https://www.facebook.com/climatecouncil/photos/a.346044238865509.1073741828.345960425540557/604228253047105/?type=1&theater

    The rest of the world is acting, getting with the science and the experts, yet Australia is locked firmly in numptyville.

  42. victoria:

    I kind of suspected the govt would go that option on higher ed. Have they stopped the needless advertising yet if they’re backing down on full fee deregulation?

  44. Leigh Sales will interview Malcolm Turnbull.

    [I would estimate that would make it about 28 times out if the last 30 political interviews on 7.30 where it has been an LNP interview.

    I’ve said 28 out of 30 to be fair, but I can only remember Bowen in the last few months.

    Anyone else?]

    No one else. And you can rest assured that Turnbull will not be subject to the same aggression that Bowen faced.

  45. Mexican, that would be auburn high school. It is rebadged hawthorn secondary college and has tried to distinguish itself from other schools in the area (I presume they mean private schools as there are not many government schools nearby).

    From their web site: ‘A range of programs will distinguish Auburn High School from all other schools in the area, including a bi-national, bi-lingual French program and bilingual Mandarin program.’ Bad luck if you don’t speak those languages.

    Even if you are suitable for that school, you still,have to travel to it. From somewhere in stonnington.

    It does support my contention that private schools destroy a comprehensive government system. So the government is undermining its own services by subsidising private schools.

    The burden is put on the shoulders of poorer families, by having their children travel great distances for their education.

    The government may also unintentionally cause a rush back to government schools (for which they will be unprepared) when parents realise their children will clock up some pretty hefty HECS debts with a unregulated tertiary sector. Opting to send their kids to government secondary schools and use the savings minimise the HECS debt by paying the uni fees upfront.

  47. Some news from Geelong from the nice glossy brochure i received in todays mail from local MP Sarah Henderson.

    – 34000 new premises in Corangamite to be connected to NBN over the next 18 months.
    – ABS centre of excellence to bring 250 jobs.
    – Geelong in with a good show to be part of the new defence contract LAND 400
    – Action to be taken on the bottleneck at the Anglesea roundabout
    – NDIS reaches 10000 particpants, with 3300 in Corangamite.
    – Cadel Evans GOR road race and Avalon Air Show, both hailed as world class.

    Geelong humming along quite nicely post Alcoa. Ford the next challenge.

  48. PeeBee

    True Auburn Secondary School would be a fair trip for someone coming from lats say Prahran or the southern part of Malvern.

    Of course the school also would be trying to pull students from its own area.

  49. It’s a bit disappointing that Wang might be considering breaking ranks on the uni deregulation legislation, if that Age article is to be believed.

Comments Page 2 of 18
1 2 3 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *